Would you rather have Towers/Kip/Redman/Vizcaino or Wolf/Lohse? Signing one more replacement level starter wouldn’t have broken the bank, and we’d probably have 5-6 more wins because of it.

I’m throwing the yellow flag

I think O’Dowd is taking a completely unfair beating in this current thread. I’m shocked at some of the names thrown out in attacking Dan’s off-season moves. Let’s look at some of these pitchers, focusing on FIP, which is a projected ERA based primarily on defensive independent stats, or stuff pitchers can control like K’s walks and, to a degree, homers:

Fogg: He’s just recently become a major league pitcher again. He’s now healthy but Cinci was unwilling to bring him back to the bigs until last week. I ask how Fogg’s performance to date would have made this team better, but I’d counter with an assertion that we’d be worse off. Fogg’s FIP registers at 5.73, which would be almost or over a run worse than Kip Wells, Redman, and JDLR.

Wolf: It’s called Petco Park, and using him suggests a quick look at ERA and nothing else to make a point. Wolf’s road ERA approaches 7, and every single rate stat is better in Petco. Wolf looks more like a gag gift for potential buyers than a reasonable option to improve a rotation.

Jennings: Um…

Lohse: I think using Lohse is an after-the-fact argument that’s hard to support. There was no indication throughout the off-season that Lohse could be had for the price he was had at, and by the time Lohse had found a buyer at that low price, the Rockies had already completed their shopping. I highly doubt that Lohse was priced at one year 4+ million in November and December.

Aside from that, some of Lohse looks sustainable, while other parts are likely to rebound. Lohse’s FIP of 3.73 is strongly supported by his .64 HR rate. However, the HR rate is a bit flukely with a HR/FB rate at over 3% below his career norm (pretty big difference). Duncan has been able to coax more grounders out of Lohse, so even when the HR/FB returns, the HR/9 will not rise as high because he’s allowing fewer fly balls this year.

Wells, Redman, and JDLR all have FIP’s below 5.00, so any one should be a capable number five guy. That two haven’t really been isn’t necessarilly by fault of their own, but more of luck and circumstance.

Why complain about Towers? He was AAA insurance and hasn’t sniffed the big league club.

The problem with Morales isn’t the role he was expected to fill, but the damage done to his delivery in the off-season. Somebody should be in trouble over this, but that’s for a different discussion.

LASTLY, this teams woes aren’t with not having an adequate fourth or fifth starter. The major culprit to the team’s current standing is its inability to win/hit on the road. Even with a split this week, we didn’t hit in three of four games, and the hitting in the fourth only came against substandard ML middle relief. Sheets still whiffed two an inning, and a solid pitching performance from two starters helped steal wins.

You’re argument is centered around Kyle Lohse and Randy Wolf. Randy Wolf really hasn’t been all that much better than Mark Redman this season.

We wouldn’t have 5-6 more wins. That’s pure idiocy. We might have one or two more wins.