Why This Year Isn't As Bad As We Think
EDITOR'S NOTE by RUSS: Promoting this to the front page since it's the All-Star Break. Look for an All-Star Game thread later tonight.
To call this season a disappointment as we head into the All-Star Break would be an understatement - save the Mariners, Nationals, and Padres, we are the worst team in the majors. In every cloud, however, there's a silver lining, and this year is no exception. In fact, I think there's a lot to be happy about. So here's my list:
1. Chris Iannetta. Iannetta is everything we wanted him to be last year. His average is hovering around .280, he has nine homers, and he's called some excellent games behind the plate. He's done all of this while splitting time with Yorvit Torrealba, who catches more games than he should. Last year Iannetta struggled in the majors and looked like he could use more seasoning. Now he's come of age and he's our catcher of the future. He's also only 25 years old.
2. Clint Barmes. After being crowned our shortstop of the future, getting injured, coming back, playing terribly, and being left for dead, Barmes has evened out somewhere in between his too-hot-to-be-true 2005 and his underwhelming 2006 and 2007. With Tulowitzki emerging as the true shortstop of the future last year (yes, this is still true), Barmes takes over second base for the next few years. Our weakness has always been up the middle. If Tulo comes back and plays as he should, we have a very solid infield, especially up the middle. Now we just need to wait for Dexter Fowler.
Find the rest after the fold. . . .

3. Ubaldo Jimenez. Okay, he leads the majors in walks. Yeah, he is 4-9. But look at how his ERA has dropped month-by-month:
April - 5.90
May - 4.85
June - 3.60
July - 1.86
U-Ball is turning into a very good pitcher. Let's be generous and assume that Aaron Cook remains great and Francis returns to form. U-Ball suddenly becomes the best #3 pitcher in the NL West, hands down. Or maybe he becomes our #2. Or maybe he becomes our #1. He's 24, and his name is Ubaldo, which earns him style points.
4. Aaron Cook. This is pretty obvious, so I'll keep it short. Aaron Cook is pitching great, and I think he'll keep it up because he's actually been this good for a few years. I think we might lose track of the fact that he's 29 and will be good for several more years. Again, imagine a rotation next year that starts with Cook, Francis, U-Ball, and Reynolds, and you have an encouraging rotation.
5. Low Minors. We have some very encouraging signs in Tulsa and Modesto, especially now that Jhoulys Chacin has been moved up. Chaz Roe, Casey Weathers, and Chacin (the Machine!) are pitching great, among others. Dexter Fowler is playing very well, which is especially encouraging to me because I really want a new centerfielder (even though I have a soft spot in my heart for Ryan Spilbourghs). Oh, and it also looks like we had a good draft.
6. High Minors, or the "Iannetta Effect". This one may seem a little more surprising, especially because our high minors prospects are either playing because of injuries or were so bad when they did play that we sent them down. But I'll call this the "Iannetta Effect" - rookies who play below their expectations are often just adjusting, and they'll play much better after they have a subpar year in the majors. This applies cheifly to Greg Reynolds, Franklin Morales, Ian Stewart and (even) Jayson Nix. They've gotten some good experience this year and we might be mistaking their disappointing performances with quality growth.
6. Attendance. Because of last year, we have the best attendance since 2002, and that is in spite of having a terrible record. Remember last year, when people in Denver didn't know who Matt Holliday was and still thought of Todd Helton as the face of our franchise? Now people have something good to think about when they think of the Rockies.
Injuries have been the real thorn in our side the year. Overall, I prefer being a bad team due to injuries than underperformance, although we have seen some underperformance this year as well. I never bought the claim that our success last year was a freak occurrence, and I still think we have the talent behind a very good team. It's frustrating that we are so bad in a year where we could win the division by being mediocre, but I think we have a lot to be happy about.
Feel free to add things I missed or tell me why I'm wrong.
Eat. Drink. Be Merry. But the above FanPost does not necessarily reflect the attitudes, opinions, or views of Purple Row's staff.
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You forgot (in no particular order)
1) Omar Quintanilla has turned himself into a valuable utility infielder
2) Fuentes is pitching lights out when it counts….. Right before the contenders start biffing for his services.
3) Buchholtz has shown he has the stuff to be a closer when Fuentes leaves.
4) Tulo has shown he is human, and can now focus on becoming a mere baseball star. Okay a stretch as a positive, but I’m glad he had his growing pains when the rest of the team was sucking rather than a year when all the other cylinders were firing. And I do believe the real Tulo will be back next year better than ever.
5) Garret Atkins has improved his defense to the point where I think Holiday gets traded before Atkins.
6) Actually a disagreement with your post…. You said that Fowler is playing “very good”, but I’m more inclined to call it a monster and/or break-out year.
Been a bad year at the major league team level for certain, but I certainly agree there were some pretty nice developments. There were of course some set-backs (Hirsch, Francis, and Morales come immediately to mind), but I think the organizational positives (major league win/loss record excepted) outweigh the negatives. So, it’s time to grit my teeth a bit and start looking for the positive organizational developments each game, and not the score so much.
by IowaRockie on Jul 13, 2008 10:22 PM MDT 0 recs
regarding Fuentes....
any thoughts on who the Rockies can realistically get in return? I’ve heard a lot of names thrown around, but it is hard to figure what is realistic.
The Rangers got a nice return on Eric Gagne ( Kason Gabbard, OF David Murphy ,OF Engel Beltre)
last year and Fuentes is much better than he was, but I have read that the Yankees balked on trading Ian Kennedy and the Mets won’t trade Niese for him.
Anyone want to venture a guess on who the Rockies get?
by DenverBears on
Jul 15, 2008 4:45 PM MDT
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Texas
did make out better in the trade, only because Gagne was horrible in Boston. Looking at his numbers before the trade, he was having a better year than Fuentes is this year. If he kept up his pre-trade pace, Boston would have gotten the better of the deal. Gabbard is not having a good year at all and has spent some of the year in the minors. Murphy is having a decent year, not good enough to trade for a top closer and Beltre is only in “A” ball and will need much improvement to ever make it to the Majors.
If Fuentes is traded, I sure hope that the Rox make out better than Texas.
by 4thturn on
Jul 15, 2008 5:19 PM MDT
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Texas...
I’d take the Texas deal in a second. I view Gabbard as a throw in that is likely going to be comparable to Josh Fogg in the long run-still useful, however. Murphy is a solid rookie that will give any team some major league value and Beltre still has a lot of potential. Keep in mind that they only traded away three months of Gagne-similar to the Fuentes situation.
If the Yankees won’t give up Kennedy and the Mets won’t give up Niese, I’m hoping that doesn’t mean that the market for closers is down this year. I wouldn’t even want to give up Fuentes for Kennedy and yet the Yankees think that price is too high—this makes me nervous. Of course, this is just what two teams are willing to give up and it only takes one team willing to pay your price to make the deal.
by DenverBears on
Jul 16, 2008 5:36 AM MDT
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According to
Joel Sherman of the New York Post:
One veteran agent and an NL official both concurred that they think the Rockies would be more likely to trade third baseman Garrett Atkins at the deadline than Holliday because in Ian Stewart, Colorado already has a ready-made replacement. Also, there is firm belief that the one player that the Rockies will definitely deal is Brian Fuentes, and both the Mets and Yanks remain part of that hunt. But at the moment the Mets (Jonathan Niese) and the Yanks (Ian Kennedy) are showing no inclination to deal the players desired by Colorado.
Aut Vincam Aut Periam
by PioneerSkies on
Jul 15, 2008 5:46 PM MDT
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Jimenez
Yeah, I noticed after Uball’s last game that he had his ERA down to 4.22 for the season. It caught me a bit by surprise.
His BAA was .291 in April, .282 in May, .237 in June, .227 so far in July – so the ERA drops are not some flukey luck-related thing. His home stats this year are great – .214 BAA and 2.67 ERA.
IowaRockie – where are you from? I live in Iowa City and work in Cedar Rapids.
by kosmo99 on Jul 14, 2008 6:48 AM MDT 0 recs
Agree with your list...
..but even this Rockies loyalist believes that these ‘08 positives MUST be translated into team success at the ML level in 2009 (O’Dowd’s 10th year as GM). If we’re still floundering below .500 next season, O’Dowd and Hurdle CANNOT be renewed any further. Again, I’m talking as a big supporter, but I have my limits.
by DeepPurple on Jul 14, 2008 1:13 PM MDT 0 recs
Agree on Hurdle
If we’re not above .500 next year, I think it will be Hurdle’s time to go. Maybe sooner if another option arises and the second half is no better. Personally, I think the manager’s role is over-stated when you consider the on-field failures, and I do think Hurdle was the right guy for the rebuilding process (which is over even now and is more of the retooling variety), but a sub .500 team next year will be very bad for the fanbase and organization as a whole.
As for O’Dowd, I see his tenure as having taken us from a bad team with absolutely no hope for the future to a team that made the World Series, has reason to believe they can be a contender any given year, and most imprtantly in my book… A team that now has hope for the future for some time to come. Not saying he’s the world’s greatest GM, but he’s done an admirable job in my eyes. I think he’s fairly safe, and rightfully so. Also, the scouting department needs to get some serious credit.
Hurdle and Apodaca are on pretty shakey ground I’d think, but the next question is who could do better? Also, what’s the deal with the injuries? Two years in a row we lose 60% of our rotation and countless other injuries….. Is there such a thing as a bad trainer? Perhaps we need to find a trainer who practices Voodoo?
by IowaRockie on
Jul 14, 2008 9:39 PM MDT
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I'm not so sure
that I’d jump on the O’Dowd bandwagon, personally. I think that a good deal of the credit for building our minor league rosters with talent lies with the scouters. I view O’Dowd as being responsible for most of the trades (and non-trades) that have occured, and I think that he’s only made one good trade (JJ and Asencio for Taveras/Hirsh/Buccholz) and one okay non-trade (Helton). Some of his other moves, though, have just been really short-sighted and, in my opinion, cheap. Towers in the offseason? Waiting until July to move Chacin up the ranks? I think that he’s getting too much credit for “building the team”, when we should be giving our credit to the team’s scouting staff, especially those in Latin America who have found the likes of Jimenez and Morales for us.
I completely agree with you on the training bit. I was beginning to be suspect of our coaching/training staff when Morales fell apart earlier this year, but now the evidence is mounting that maybe we need to tweak some of these guys. Nearly every single player has had to deal with at least one “small” injury – bad enough to keep them out of play for two weeks, but not bad enough for DL, in most cases. Those are the kinds of injuries that make our FO call up Nix, which, of course, has been shown to contribute negatively to our record.
by oo_nrb on
Jul 15, 2008 11:29 AM MDT
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This season might even help us...
As without the record, certain trades that look certain might not have happened, and lets face it, the Rox pitching depth is great, but in quantity, not quality.
It’ll be really nice to trade and get some higher grade pitching prospects. I know this isn’t true, but it feels like we have just flat ran out of prospects of the SP type. I’m very excited to see what Fuentes will bring in the next few weeks, and what Holliday brings us in the off-season, at latest.
by roxintober on Jul 15, 2008 8:20 AM MDT 0 recs
I guess this is true....
but I had really hoped we were beyond the “find a silver lining” stage. I spent 14 years finding silver linings. I was kinda expecting solid silver by this point.
by BroJB on Jul 15, 2008 11:14 AM MDT 0 recs
one more point....
Overall, I prefer being a bad team due to injuries than underperformance, although we have seen some underperformance this year as well.
Actually, there has been a lot of underperformance this year. No need to run through the suspects again, it’s been done ad nauseum.
If we think the Rox are 18 games under 500 strictly because of injuries, we’re kidding ourselves. If this team was even average at hitting with RISP, we’d be near the lead in the division, injuries or no.
by BroJB on Jul 15, 2008 11:22 AM MDT 0 recs
I'd say...
it’s about 75% underperformance and 25% injuries. The only real significant loss we’ve had of players producing as they should this year has been Holiday for 15 days and Barmes for the same amount. Other than that, the guys that have been injured have been guys severely underperforming.
by RyanBuff on
Jul 15, 2008 11:37 AM MDT
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There is no doubt in my mind
That our pathetic hitting with RISP has been our greatest undoing this season. OK, so the pitching hasn’t helped much either, but there have been more than a few games we could/should have won if we could had gotten a hit in the clutch.
Put me out of my misery. Please!
by rockhead on
Jul 15, 2008 12:05 PM MDT
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1st half highlights...
I have to mention the 9-run come from behind win on July 4th. That game was an absolute rollercoaster. At one point, the game was so painful that I just wanted the Rockies to hurry up and lose. They kept fighting and came up victorious in a game that they had no business winning. It would be nice if that game was a foreshadow of the rest of the season…
Aut Vincam Aut Periam
by PioneerSkies on Jul 15, 2008 1:09 PM MDT 0 recs
Down years
This is the stage of operating a small market club that distinguishes the guys in Oakland and Minnesota from everyone else – honest evaluation of where the club is and of which players they can’t afford to lose (or can’t afford to keep).
Now that the Rockies have a solid major league roster they are going to need to make difficult decisions about which young players to place faith in and which established big league players to make long-term members of the organization. Everyone else needs to be moved (or kept) according to what brings the most value to the organization.
Fortunately the Rockies (if managed properly) appear to have more revenue potential than either Oakland or the Twins so they can afford a few more mistakes or a few more luxuries.
by MADness on Jul 15, 2008 4:25 PM MDT 0 recs
nice post
The Rox can afford a few more luxuries. That’s why I don’t understand all the trade talk of Holliday and Fuentes. If you’re trying to build a ballclub, you need a top notch closer like Fuentes and a hitter like Holliday to build your line-up around. Unless you’ve already got someone in the wings to fill those spots, you can’t make those trades without taking a huge step backwards. Chance are very slim that you’ll receive any prospects in trade that will fill those two positions next season.
by 4thturn on
Jul 15, 2008 5:31 PM MDT
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Good point
There will be some hard decisions. I think we will have a bit more revenue than those other two teams, and MAYBE that allows us to keep one of Atkins/Holiday. Personally, I’m still really warming up to Atkins a bit more every day and think Holliday can be replaced a bit easier. Even from within, as a 3B like Stewart should conceivably be able to convert to LF and we have guys like Baker, Smith, and Spilly who could step right in. Of course Baker could also slide into 3B if Stewart didn’t work out, but there’s also the money thing and maybe more imprtantly the length of the contract. I’d think/hope that Atkins would be at least a bit cheaper than Holliday and not demand quite so many years which is probably one of the worst things a small market club can be burdened with.
by IowaRockie on
Jul 15, 2008 6:35 PM MDT
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Atkins/Holliday
In my opinion Holliday is a different class of hitter than Atkins. Atkins production can be replaced but an impact bat like Holliday’s is very difficult to find.
by MADness on
Jul 15, 2008 7:32 PM MDT
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Barmes is not the long-term answer....
at 2nd base. Don’t be swayed by his hot start this year. He’s already coming back to earth as his average dipped below .300 on the road trip.
Barmes is more helpful to us now as trade bait while his value is restored. He certainly should not be our second baseman for the next several years. A better candidate fot that job could be Jeff Baker, who appears at least average defensively for the position, and has some upside with his power. He strikes out too much and I have my doubts, but Bake is certainly a better long-term solution for second base than Barmes.
by GoRoxGo on Jul 15, 2008 5:53 PM MDT 0 recs
Barmes
I’ve got a bit more faith in Barmes than just about anybody here I think, but even I wouldn’t object to trading him now IF we can get something back for him. I like him as a fine utility guy and I wouldn’t panic if he HAD to be our starting 2B. But if we can get a promising “B” prospect or even a young reliever for next year….. Go for it. I like Baker too, and actually think he’d be the more logical guy to keep around as he can also platoon with Hawpe in RF if we should find a better 2B. Which reminds me of another disappointment this year….. Chris Nelson. I was hoping he’d have a break-out year and answer our long-term 2B problem, but I’m starting to get Choo Freeman type worries about him. High draft pick, great athlete, sporadic success, but slow development in general and never consistant from year to year. Haven’t given up, just like I never gave up on Choo…. But let’s say I am concerned.
by IowaRockie on
Jul 15, 2008 6:42 PM MDT
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Dropping the name Choo Freeman gives me the chills.
by onholliday on
Jul 15, 2008 7:59 PM MDT
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I'm not sure the Choo comparison
is completely fair. Nelson is still 22 and started in Tulsa, and I’m not completely sure on this, but I don’t think Choo hit AAA until he was 24-25. Nelson has also been slowed by injuries a little more than anything else at this point. He came back tonight by the way. I think if he has a solid 2nd half he may have a shot to start in AAA at 23 next year and could be called up any time. I am still pretty high on his future at 2B, and Gomez will be someone to watch out for next year if he comes back well from his injury.
by smokinRox on
Jul 17, 2008 10:58 PM MDT
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I take the age back.
I looked it up and Choo did hit AAA at 23, however he never had a season as promising as last year for Nelson w/ 19 and 99.
by smokinRox on
Jul 17, 2008 11:02 PM MDT
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+1, but....
I’d be surprised if he has any trade value. Barmes is a subpar major leaguer outside of Coors field. And unfortunately, other GM’s should be smart enough to realize that. His home/away splits:
2008 (BA/OPS/SLG/OPS)
Home: .358/ .402 / .684/ 1.086
Away: .257 / .289 / .349 / .638
Career
Home: .297/.339/.472/.811
Away: .227/.266/.334/.600
by RockyMtnRedbird on
Jul 21, 2008 1:31 PM MDT
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