Thursday Morning Rockpile:
I just linked this for the signings news in the comments to today's Pebble Report, but Tracy Ringolsby gives an update on the speculative trade front that says the Rockies could still deal Brian if somebody caves in the next four and a half hours, and we are looking strongly at reacquiring Josh Fogg. Fogg would be the Reds biggest trade of the day. You know I'm "Kid"ding when I say that, right? Stewart and Fowler for Duscherer seems a little crazy, but Fowler and Weathers and a bunch of money to pay him for Washburn? That's completely off the wall, still, Baseball Prospectus' WIll Carroll says that Washburn will likely go to us or the Yankees. The News has collected some Rockies rumors from around the web that includes the tidbit that we were also in on Kyle Loshe.
Meanwhile, Troy E. Renck is chalking up the performance of Aaron Cook last night as the reason that Fuentes won't be dealt. I'm glad newspaper people have the level headed ability to take one game in context and leave it up to us bloggers to wildly speculate about the team buying or selling after each individual win or loss. Anyway, snark aside, a win in PNC, and a winning road trip was nice to see. I'll try and keep an eye on the wire today for trades.
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What is up with the hate for Renck lately?
The last two days especially?
Both mentions of his comments on the trade deadline boil his position down too simply.
I don’t think he’s saying that one game truly should make or break the bank in terms of deciding on being a buyer or seller. The Rockies however have sort of spent the last month bouncing around, not really making up that much ground, or playing in such a way as to make a roll of the dice towards being a buyer a sure thing. On June 15th they were 8.5 back. Today they are 7 back. Had they either started playing the way they did after the All Star break (what, 13 games now) earlier or tanked it, the decisions would be a lot easier to make. We wouldn’t even be having the conversation if the Dodgers or Diamondbacks could hit better than my son’s T-Ball team.
But the teams performance has made the decision a gray area for sure. Renck’s point all along this week was if they Rockies completely falter in Pittsburgh, they ought to be more likely to be sellers, at say 8-9 games out. If the win or keep pace in Pittsburgh, and are say 5-7 games out, they ought to be buyers or stay pat.
The reason one or two games makes a difference is because of the lack of real movement prior and the fact that today is pop or get of the pot time. Now, maybe he’s placing too much emphasis on the games this week at Pitt, when the emphases really should have been this road trip, but still. The point is the Rockies are still in that No Mans Land, and the direction of the club for the next month is not an easy read.
Makes sense to me.
by comedian on
Jul 31, 2008 10:20 AM MDT
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Trades
this may be a very quiet trade deadline. It looks like teams want to make sure they get value and get the better end of any deal, that they are reluctant to make fair trades. Are the Rockies buyers or sellers? Looks like we are right where we were months ago…..too far out to be serious buyers. Too close to be serious sellers….so we are neither really.
One rumor The Cowboy mentioned was Washington wanted Hawpe for Tim Redding. Which at first glance didn’t seem to crazy, corner OF, for a legit starting pitcher, but if you look at 30 year old Reddings career numbers (.489 ERA), he’s not that much better than 31 year old Josh Fogg’s (.503 ERA)
And Washburn? He’s got good stuff. But he’s be 34 in a couple weeks, and his career ERA is (.410), and it’s been going up. Besides 2002 he’s never won more than 11 games in a season, he’s a career .500 pitcher. (98-95). And he pitches to contact, and is not a K machine. Again…better than Josh Fogg? Hell better then DLR? With his contract, the M’s would be hard pressed to give him away. But they want not one, but TWO top can’t miss prospects? They are on crack. They would be lucky to get Koshansky and Hirsch for Washburn. Which by the way would actually help the M’s. They suck.
Thought Clint Hurdle should be fired before it was cool.
by Redhawk on
Jul 31, 2008 10:26 AM MDT
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The strange thing to me
is the huge shift in thinking that seems to have occurred amongst front offices of big market clubs, where there is a huge reluctance now to deal prospects. At the same time, you have FO’s demanding top tier prospects in return for players who likely be type A free agents and walk in the offseason. So basically there is a lot of stalemate.
Second half run?
by moomacher on
Jul 31, 2008 11:36 AM MDT
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Combination of factors
The luxury tax and revenue sharing have allowed small- and mid-market teams to hold onto more of their players when they hit free agency. That means that the free agent market is depleted, so teams realize that to get the big stars, they’ll need to develop them themselves.
The result is that big market clubs are less willing to part with prospects than they used to be. Most of the names being floated around at the trade deadline this year are not big names; you’re not going to part with a top prospect just to get a middle reliever. But the so-called “sellers” haven’t really adjusted to this reality and still demand large bounties in return for their players.
by Tom (RFTN) on
Jul 31, 2008 12:32 PM MDT
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Griffey to White Sox
http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/story/8398348
Why I don’t know, as they seem pretty set in their outfield (I have a friend who’s a die-hard ChiSox fan, so I’m kept pretty up to date on their various tribulations…)
by oo_nrb on
Jul 31, 2008 10:47 AM MDT
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Read something in a comment on ESPN's trade blog
Someone suggested Barmes & Fuentes for Lohse (possibly with a less-than-top prospect).
Lohse and Fuentes are both FAs.
I highly doubt this trade would happen, but would support it if it does. What do ya’ll think of such a deal?
Watching the purple row from high atop the big brown monolith on California Ave
by Mondogarage on
Jul 31, 2008 11:46 AM MDT
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no....
I’d rather have Fuentes than Lohse—unless he comes with a decent prospect.
by DenverBears on
Jul 31, 2008 12:22 PM MDT
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Would really depend on who the prospect is
I’d take a decent B prospect for Barmes and Fuentes.
by Tom (RFTN) on
Jul 31, 2008 12:32 PM MDT
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Cards mgmt says Lohse is not being traded
From stltoday.com, Derrick Goold writes:
It was inevitable that this would pop up somewhere today, with the nonwaiver trade deadline approaching: "Cardinals could trade Lohse," says the headline over at ESPN. That would contradict everything that the Cardinals have said recently. After Kyle Lohse’s start Sunday against the Mets, I asked GM John Mozeliak: "What are the chances Lohse’s next start is with another team?"The answer, adamantly: "Zero."
Bernie Miklasz has also reported on the subject with additional certainty, and Joe Strauss had the note about Lohse trying to survive his first trade deadline in a few years.
The entire post: http://www.stltoday.com/blogzone/bird-land/bird-land/2008/07/riffs-when-pujols-stirs-lohse-etc/
The draft picks could possibly end up in a wash, as Lohse has a chance to be a Type-A free agent also this year. I just don’t know that it would help either team. Cardinals improve the pen at a cost to the stability of their starting corps and the Rockies improve their rotation at the cost to their pen.
by RockyMtnRedbird on
Jul 31, 2008 1:51 PM MDT
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Come on Dan
It can’t be that hard to shake a #4 starter loose!
Second half run?
by moomacher on
Jul 31, 2008 12:33 PM MDT
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Did you see what the Mariners got for Rhodes?
A 22-year-old starting pitcher in AA. Not bad, really.
by Tom (RFTN) on
Jul 31, 2008 12:36 PM MDT
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Color me shocked
that non-Dealin’ Dan is going to do absolutely nothing.
by Teekalong on
Jul 31, 2008 12:38 PM MDT
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Most sources are saying
that he’s not even going to trade Fuentes.
by Tom (RFTN) on
Jul 31, 2008 12:44 PM MDT
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The problem
with judging just on the results is we don’t know the behind the scenes (at least not yet). You can’t fault someone for not making a trade until you know what was being offered or what would have had to be given up. If teams were demanding Fowler or Stewart plus more for bottom of the rotation starters, I don’t blame O’Dowd for not doing anything.
Besides, there’s still an hour to go.
by holly96 on
Jul 31, 2008 12:53 PM MDT
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I don't know
I feel perfectly fine blaming him for not making good trades, and if that means I don’t give him enough credit for not making bad trades…so be it. As I see it, that’s a big part of his job description.
by Teekalong on
Jul 31, 2008 12:55 PM MDT
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Not making bad trades
Funny thing is they usually look a lot different than they do at the time. If we trade Dexter Fowler, O’Dowd probably gets reamed here, but what happens if Fowler turns into a 10-homer guy who hits around .260 in the majors? Then suddenly O’Dowd doesn’t look so bad for making that trade.
by Tom (RFTN) on
Jul 31, 2008 1:02 PM MDT
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I don't have a problem
blaming him if the trades were to be had. The problem is we don’t know. It’s not like other GMs are out there making trades that Dan could have matched. Not much has happened at all.
by holly96 on
Jul 31, 2008 1:03 PM MDT
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Can someone in the know
discuss whether guys like Koshansky, Omar and Smith were at some time desired prospects in trades that DO’D held back, or have they always been throw-in type guys?
by Teekalong on
Jul 31, 2008 12:54 PM MDT
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Probably throw-ins
Well, Omar came over as part of the trade that sent Joe Kennedy to Oakland, where he was essentially a throw-in with Eric Byrnes.
by Tom (RFTN) on
Jul 31, 2008 12:55 PM MDT
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good question
it seems like sometimes we let guys rot at AAA and reduce their value
Second half run?
by moomacher on
Jul 31, 2008 1:03 PM MDT
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I'm not sure they had a lot of value
Koshansky: power-hitting 1B who can’t really play anywhere else, strikes out a lot, and doesn’t hit for that high of an average. Guys like that grow on trees.
Quintanilla: Over the last four seasons, Quintanilla has spent part of the year at AAA (OPS of 913, 745, 834, 876) and the majors (OPS: 512, 508, 566, 670.) The problem isn’t that he was rotting at AAA, but that he didn’t hit when he got the call to the majors. That obviously decreased his value.
Smith: Tough to say. He seemed like more of a mid-level prospect to begin with, breaking out at Tulsa in ‘06, getting a late-season callup in ‘07 and getting logjammed this year. I’d like to see him play, but where would he play?
by Tom (RFTN) on
Jul 31, 2008 1:15 PM MDT
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None of those players by themselves
would ever have gotten anything valuable in return. All three once had more value were they to be included in a package with higher grade prospects than they have now. The one player that really looks like O’Dowd may have held on to for too long is Chris Nelson (with Baker playing second now, where does he go? and the way he’s hit this year has dampened enthusiasm for him) and Brandon Hynick probably could fall into that category as well.
by Rox Girl on
Jul 31, 2008 1:56 PM MDT
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Looks like that's it
No deals, Mr. O’Dowd?
by Since1993 on
Jul 31, 2008 2:07 PM MDT
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You have to
give it another couple hours. News of trades sometimes trickle in for another couple hours after the deadline.
by holly96 on
Jul 31, 2008 2:10 PM MDT
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Nothing according to Ringolsby
Reporting as of 2:02 on RMN.
by RockyMtnRedbird on
Jul 31, 2008 2:23 PM MDT
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Might have thought maybe...
having failed to get Gerald Laird, the Marlins might have been willing to part with a middling prospect or prospects for Torrealba. And if said package made sense for us…
On another note, I’m happy Manny and the Red Sucks are stuck with each other. I was dismayed to think Boston would walk out of this fiasco carrying out Jason Bay.
by Since1993 on
Jul 31, 2008 2:33 PM MDT
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Yeah, Manny a Dodger?
Per Fox Sports. Not much for details yet, though.
by RockyMtnRedbird on
Jul 31, 2008 2:39 PM MDT
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Crap is too mild a word
The freakin’ Dodgers???? Crap! Crap! Crap! Phooey!
Put me out of my misery. Please!
by rockhead on
Jul 31, 2008 2:39 PM MDT
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Freakin Dodgers!
Well, that kinda makes sense with Mannys antics being right out of a movie…
Remembering Dustin Mohr's glory years!
by MohrPlease on
Jul 31, 2008 2:51 PM MDT
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Horrible deal for the Dodgers.
Rockies fans rejoice.
by Ghoulowitzki on
Jul 31, 2008 3:02 PM MDT
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interesting
the Bucs now have both brothers LaRoche
Aut Vincam Aut Periam
by PioneerSkies on
Jul 31, 2008 4:20 PM MDT
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Should be a terrible deal for Manny
The cavernous outfields of the NL West should expose a lot of Manny’s weaknesses in the field that the short porch of Fenway protected him from showcasing. Also, he’s not going to have a lot of protection in the anemic lineup that will surround him. The good news also for the Rockies is that the LA series in Sept will surely sell out, bolstering ticket sales as all the Sox fans come out in hopes of grabbing an autograph from their lazy hero
by Rox R Champs on
Jul 31, 2008 3:06 PM MDT
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y horrible?
what did they give up?
Hurlde sucks
by roxfan4life on
Jul 31, 2008 3:07 PM MDT
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Exactly
Now Manny gets to patrol the Coors’ cavernous left field. We all remember how much fun Bonds had out there. Now it’s Manny’s turn.
Every day is a Holliday!
by free7694 on
Jul 31, 2008 3:13 PM MDT
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I don't remember
him making any mistakes in the WS.
I think this is a good deal for LA in the short term. Manny is still one of the best bats in baseball. Further, its quite clear that they didn’t believe in LaRoche at all (and LaRoche certainly has not given them much to bank on, albeit in short duty).
I think this is a good deal for LA and they are now the clear favorite for the division (if they weren’t already). Their big weakness was a middle of the order bat, and now that is solved.
Obviously this could backfire, but Coletti’s popularity in LA just jumped about 100000000000 levels.
by Teekalong on
Jul 31, 2008 3:20 PM MDT
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True
No notable mistakes in the WS, but did we get any balls out of the infield that didn’t clear the fence in games 3 or 4? I don’t necessarily remember him putting anybody out either.
by Rox R Champs on
Jul 31, 2008 3:23 PM MDT
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4 put outs in the WS
Just checked the gameday charts. 5 total outs to left for the Rox, but the fifth was to Ellbury in the ninth of game 4. Not a lot of variance either as to where the balls were hit
by Rox R Champs on
Jul 31, 2008 3:34 PM MDT
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Manny and Joe Torre
reunited….so odd. So is Manny going to go on a tear now to get that $100 million dollar deal he thinks he deserves?
Second half run?
by moomacher on
Jul 31, 2008 3:48 PM MDT
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Who Said the Rockies weren't going to make any headlines today?
How about giving away a bullpen arm? One I actually thought was Ok?
Astros claim A. Arias off waivers.
Thought Clint Hurdle should be fired before it was cool.
by Redhawk on
Jul 31, 2008 4:30 PM MDT
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Taking a page from the Nuggets I see
Addition by subtraction. Or, you know, just subtraction.
by Teekalong on
Jul 31, 2008 4:40 PM MDT
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Hmmmm.....
That does kind of suck. One of the problems with having a deep system I suppose, but I can think of quite a few guys I’d rather lose than Arias. Anyway, best of luck to him in Houston! I always enjoyed watching him pitch.
by IowaRockie on
Jul 31, 2008 4:46 PM MDT
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Congratulations to the Pirates and Rockies!!!
My take on deadline day: Boston just got a touch better short-term when you facture in the defense. L.A. got quite a bit better offensively, but their pitchers are probably wishing they had Cookie’s sinker. Both teams lost a moderate, but significant amount of future talent. And, the feel-good story of the day is that Pittsburgh got a flippin’ haul for Bay. As for the Rockies, let’s face it…. They need more than just a 5th starter to make anything of 2008. They need LA and Arizona to tank. While Manny will most likely improve the Dodgers, it’s also not out of the realm of possibility that he could be a key to their tanking. (ie: Manny and Jeff Kent get in a fight where they accidentally break Bilingsley’s arm with a side of venison.) So personally I see it as most likely being a non-factor for 2008 as far as the Rockies ar concerned. The best news is LA did give up some serious young talent, and (oh please do) I could see them being foolish enough to try to resign Manny and all his baggage as a FA. Not that I would ever enjoy pitching to him, but at some point even the Dodgers have to run out of money… Okay maybe not, but at least they’ll pass on a few of the lesser free agents just tomake it look good.
by IowaRockie on
Jul 31, 2008 4:43 PM MDT
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The Sox are hoping
that the LADs sign Manny next year. That’s the whole point of trading him to the NL. Boston would have done just about anything to keep him out of the AL, (expecially NY), and this works out better for Boston as the LADs are more likely to sign him up than the Marlins would have been.
by 4thturn on
Jul 31, 2008 9:25 PM MDT
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Bah
I still think our FO is really unimaginative…7 games out is a lot and what happened last september doesn’t happen every year.
Second half run?
by moomacher on
Jul 31, 2008 9:40 PM MDT
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Looks like, though
This was not the year for middle value trades. It was eiter big names or notheing.
by Since1993 on
Aug 1, 2008 11:33 AM MDT
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