Best time is now for Holliday trade?

by HiAspire on Jul 31, 2008 12:45 PM MDT

The Rockies don't always have great timing when it comes to optimizing trade value. That's not easy, but often they hold onto guys too long to see their worth erode -- and sometimes teams make hasty decisions and give up a player too soon.

Now might be the time for Holliday to be dealt. As a fan, I actually would like to see them pick up another inexpensive starter to help this team finish out the year and give these guys another shot at late-season heroics since they've gotten some new life recently, but the way things are developing now makes me think that this might be the best time to get the most for Holliday if they are going to end up trading him anyway this winter. The less time he would have with a trade partner (if dealt this winter or especially next July), the lower his value may go. Right now he can help someone like the Red Sox with two playoff chases at least. Beyond that, the opportunities seem to be shrinking.

The Angels, Red Sox, and Yankees are teams that often pop-up in Holliday discussions for future deals because of their resources and use for a big bat in pennant runs. There are other teams too obviously where he could ultimately go (including staying right here as fans cross their fingers), but some of those windows might be closing a bit today.

If Boston moves Manny and gets a replacement OFer today, that might take the most likely destination out for us (although last word was that the proposed 3-way was dead). Other than the two front offices squabbling in the past, Holliday to the Red Sox next year as they replace Manny makes a lot of sense with the BoSox having some young players the Rockies would like and saw some of them first-hand in the Series as they helped bring us down.

If Bay became a Red Sox to finish out the year, maybe Holliday still works his way to Boston this off-season with Bay coming to us as he would not cost as much and be something of a reasonable replacement the franchise could use for justification. But Boston may get their long-term Manny replacement already today if he’s traded as both sides want there and not be in the Holliday bidding next winter.

The Yankees are always a possibility for great players who are going to get great contracts as they can afford it more than most. However, they are shifting away from dealing prospects, and more likely to go out and sign CC Sabathia for their big splash instead of giving up a ton of prospects and cash for Holliday.

The Angels recently got their big bat that was missing in Mark Teixeira, and I think probably make a long-term commitment there -- especially if things go well this October for them together. Maybe they go after Holliday next winter too, but adding a Teixeira isn't really their style and they are more careful with their prospects in that respect. I don't know that they would give Teixeira a monster deal and follow that right up with doing the same for Holliday at a great prospect/contract price. Teixeira might be their big dollar addition to the lineup for now.

So the Rockies might be well advised to jump in and try to replace the Pirates in that discussed 3-way deal that would send Manny to Florida and Bay possibly to the Red Sox. Surely Holliday would do a better job for them in replacing Manny's production and be a bigger long-term fixture. The Rockies could get themselves 3-4 talented prospects, many of whom might even be ready to help now or next season.

Hermida would be a solid young MLB OF replacement with some potential still who could be part of the core here if/when healthy. SP Ryan Tucker and/or OF Michael Stanton could be other possibilities from the Fish along with seeing if we could get an Ellsbury (since he's down a bit this year and fans would love to see on the other side from the Series) or young pitching prospects from the BoSox for an MVP type bat in the prime of his career.

So I think now might be the best time to sneak into that deal and get the most for Holliday before we find out we waited too long again. However, maybe it wouldn't be so bad to wait if the Rockies never find what they are looking for in a Holliday deal and just bite the bullet to sign him otherwise. That would make a lot of fans happy. For me personally, I think they can find offense overall here without creating another Helton-type deal that may hurt us down the road and would rather see that spread around a bit. If they also think that or are convinced that they can't sign him, then they ought to give the Red Sox and Marlins a call about replacing the hesitant Pirates and getting their load of youngsters now while they are to be had before it might be too late.

Eat. Drink. Be Merry. But the above FanPost does not necessarily reflect the attitudes, opinions, or views of Purple Row's staff (unless, of course, it's written by the staff [and even then, it still might not]).

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Bay a Ray

Rotoworld: A source told MLB.com that the Rays will get Jason Bay from the Pirates for Reid Brignac and Jeff Niemann.

I guess that finally puts the 3-way deal with Manny-Bay-Hermida and others off. Seems like if the Rox wanted a young MLB OF replacement and pitching prospects that this mix of teams would work for them taking the Pirate’s place and getting more for Holliday than they were going to get with Bay in it.

by HiAspire on Jul 31, 2008 1:21 PM MDT reply actions

Dodgers

And could end up being Manny to the Dodgers and giving us even longer odds of pulling out the division this year as teams above us load up. If they weren’t going to trade contributors today partially because they had renewed hopes in the division, then a big divisional trade that makes the climb harder doesn’t help with those plans and probably just pushes some of it off to a waiver deadline attempt with some of the guys who could have been traded.

by HiAspire on Jul 31, 2008 1:32 PM MDT reply actions

You never know with internet rumors but...

The Dodgers have acquired Manny Ramirez from the Red Sox, SI.com’s Jon Heyman and NESN reports.

NESN believes the Red Sox are getting Jason Bay in a three-team deal.

by HiAspire on Jul 31, 2008 2:33 PM MDT up reply actions

Worst News

We didn’t have much of a shot this year anyway other than a miracle, so the Manny to LA thing doesn’t hurt too much now, but in the big picture this kind of move may have awakened the sleeping giant in the division (not talking about the actual Giants but their divisional rivals in blue) with the resources and location to really be Yankee/Boston type competitors in the NL if they ever got their act together. They’ve developed a lot of young players and played along with the rest of the division doing the same mostly, but more than anyone in our path to future success they have the knock-out power to dominate the west.

by HiAspire on Jul 31, 2008 2:48 PM MDT up reply actions

Manny isn't going anywhere

He is not getting traded today, and the Red Sox will nix any waiver claims from the teams most likely to make them in August. (The Marlins will not be making any waiver claim for a $6 contract remainder, that’s for certain.)

Holliday has as great a chance of going to Boston this winter, as he did this morning. However, the Rockies would need at least a package like Buchholz and Pedroia, for it to make sense.

Watching the purple row from high atop the big brown monolith on California Ave

by Mondogarage on Jul 31, 2008 1:40 PM MDT reply actions

Maybe if things fall through...

But Boston sure is trying their best to get him out of town today. They are sick and tired of the games he’s playing on the field and off there now, and he doesn’t want to be there either. If he’s not dealt, I wouldn’t put it past him to nearly quit this year (if he hasn’t already in some ways trying to force a deal). A trade may not get worked out if the clock expires, but I think both Boston and Manny want to be rid of each other today and working hard toward that. Boston isn’t going to pick up his option and he’ll be gone in a couple of months anyway. I can see them taking what they can get here before the bell sounds. They’ve put Manny through waivers before and hoped teams would pick the contract up, but certainly would nix it if someone in their way to the playoffs did it this time with impending free agency ahead and no long-term commitment keeping others away as before.

Buchholz would be the guy to target but may not make that same kind of sense for the Red Sox who can sign themselves a big OF bat any off-season without having to part with a top young pitcher too. Big names and top prospects were about to be on the fly here in that multi-team deal, though, and if Holliday is as good as gone next winter anyway hopefully they get something as good as they could have gotten today. For a guy who’d possibly only be on your team for one season, though, by that time his value isn’t going to go up as they keep waiting there.

by HiAspire on Jul 31, 2008 2:29 PM MDT reply actions

Our front office flat blows and there is no way around it.....

other teams go for it. We sit back and hope and that is how it will always be as long as the Monforts are walking the halls down on Blake. They are making money hand over fist this season with gate and concessions alone. While I am not sure how much Manny will hurt the Dodgers on defense, that clubhouse is stoked right now, and know they have a legitimate chance at getting to the World Series. Us? We’re trotting freaking Valerio De Los Santos and Glendon Rusch out there. Freaking joke!

by LW33 on Jul 31, 2008 3:39 PM MDT reply actions

It was a strange market this year

Approaching the deadline nearly all of the contenders were looking to add an arm to the starting rotation, but not one of those deals went through as far as I know. Teams were wanting big-time prospects for marginal arms like Washburn and Arroyo. I can’t say that I blame O’Dowd for holding onto the prospects without getting a top of the rotation starter back, especially when we’re only on the fringe of the playoff race. Now, if teams would’ve been willing to accept players like Hirsch in return, I would be more inclined to agree with you, but from everything we’ve heard so far that wasn’t the case.

by mattrob on Jul 31, 2008 4:44 PM MDT up reply actions

Not sure who made out best (other than NYY), but not us

Many think the Boston got the wost of the deal, but goes to show how motivated they were to get something done with Manny there. I wouldn’t be surprised if it came out later that the Red Sox gave in more at the end just to keep the deal alive and do what it took to move Manny out and bring a reasonable replacement bat in.

I don’t know how much LA gets out of it either unless they go deep in the playoffs next year as it sounds like it could be a rental for them in not picking up the options. They made the big booboo with A.Jones but Manny’s probably the guy they should be paying for a couple more seasons. Him finding a home there long-term I thought would have made sense to both. But to them, I don’t think they felt like they had to give up much they’d miss to see how Manny in LA works for them.

With Boston as motivated to deal him as they were, and you know they have to still consider themselves a playoff threat always even as they are getting rid of their headache, it seems like the situation was more ripe for us here.

If they were going to go that far to replace Manny with Bay, imagine Holliday instead for them and their fans. One MVP bat for another and they keep on rolling as championship favorites. Holliday is someone they’d likely look at anyway long-term there (if they don’t decide Bay is their new man in this audition for them).

Could they have squeezed Buchholz or whoever they wanted most there out of them now with their desperation to deal Manny and still contend more so than next winter? I would think so. Better chance at least. Boston did what they had to do today to get rid of Manny and replace him with a LF bat, even if they had to give up too much. That was an opportunity for us with a player they would have really wanted there more.

by HiAspire on Jul 31, 2008 4:03 PM MDT reply actions

LA got the worst of the deal

Manny can still rake like a mofo, but he’s starting to decline a wee bit. Bay’s numbers this season are just shy of Manny’s. But the idea of Manny patrolling the large outfield of Chavez Ravine makes me smile.

Torre’s already said, "You wish you had the DH," Torre said. "We didn’t plan in advance how to move things around."

This say more about Torre than it does about Ramirez, Jones, Kemp, Ethier, Pierre. People talk about how wonderful a manager he’s been for all those years in NYC, but talent goes a long way. He lost more games as a manager pre-Yanks than most managers win in their careers.

The Dodgers won’t be resigning him at the $$$ he wants (look for him to go to the Yanks for 2009).

Of course, I said Manny wouldn’t even be traded, but then, I wasn’t accounting for how bad a front office the Dodgers still have.

Watching the purple row from high atop the big brown monolith on California Ave

by Mondogarage on Jul 31, 2008 4:20 PM MDT up reply actions

Bad front office

..that has their team playing in the playoffs potentially this year, though. There are lots of Manny-haters, but when he’s motivated (and will be playing for a contract now and in a new glitzy city) he’ll put up some huge numbers and give them a leg up in a weak divisions there for the taking. I think defense overall can be important, but also blown out of proportion statistically (where defensive stats have their short-comings too) on an individual level. His bat will mean much more if he’s got it going good.

For those guys sitting in Boston’s front offices, Manny was going to be traded today. Boston wanted nothing to do with him continuing this nonsense, and it was only going to get worse for the both there. Maybe much worse once the options were gone and frustration set in further. Boston might get revitalized with this behind them (although will miss the offensive production). LA now has the ability to put up runs and quite possibly take the division away from the other team that can’t score. The Pirates arguably get more than they could have for Bay because the Red Sox ponied up prospects too to make it happen. We see our slight chances to pull out the division miraculously again go down, and maybe see the market and price for Holliday go down with each month that passes. They either got to sign him, or optimize his trade value. Monkeying around will get them what they often do with the short end of the stick.

by HiAspire on Jul 31, 2008 4:37 PM MDT reply actions

good luck to the LADs

Unless the NL institutes the DH in the next week, the LADs made a big mistake. Manny playing left field in most of the NL West parks will prove to be a joke. What’s the reaction going to be when you have to pull your best hitter out of the line up in a close, late inning game because he’s a liability in the outfield. Manny runs like he has bricks in his pockets.

No doubt, Manny can hit the ball, but he was the proverbial hemroid of Boston.

by 4thturn on Jul 31, 2008 9:17 PM MDT reply actions

You realize we’re gonna see him play left in Coors?

by onholliday on Aug 1, 2008 8:09 AM MDT up reply actions

Exactly

And that’s what ultimately cost Boston in the Series with Manny ruining their chances with his defense here and leading to our first of many World Series titles. Or so we hoped.

It’s certainly possible that one big play can change a game, and certainly a miscue in the OF might do that from time to time once in a while, but I think defense (especially in the OF shagging flies) can be overblown also. How many games a year were ultimately decided by an OF play as the critical element deciding it? How many games has Manny cost the Red Sox over the years as the team travels to various stadiums and outfields? Certainly not more than he’s won for them with his stellar bat.

I heard on ESPN radio this morning that Theo had a team meeting with team leaders and veterans who unanimously told him that Manny had to go. That tells you how far this thing went wrong when even his teammates turned on him and his antics despite being in a playoff run toward another title that he has been so critical to achieving before. They had to make a change there.

We as Rockies fans need and want this Dodger acquisition to blow up in their faces. We need to focus on something bad about it for our own sakes, but objectively unless their highly-rated but so far AAAA 3B or injury-prone minor league arm turn into something great, they can’t go too wrong here. They aren’t paying Manny’s money. They aren’t tied into a long commitment that could go bad. They are in a very winable division that saw the front-runners in desperate need for a bat not get one, so they go out and get the best available for their own weakness and become the clear team to beat. If you are going to have Manny and live with everything that goes along with that (better and worse), they have him at the perfect time where they have all the leverage and he needs to earn his next and last big paycheck. Maybe he flops or doesn’t fit in the clubhouse and the whole thing blows up under the weight of expectation, but it’s probably more likely that Manny has a big second half and the Dodgers make it to the post-season. Certainly we can cheer for disaster there and help improve our chances and delight in the misfortune of a divisional foe, but objectively I think they get a tip of the cap there on a job well done filling their biggest need for offense with the best player available without giving up anything they valued highly.

by HiAspire on Aug 1, 2008 8:38 AM MDT up reply actions

I've got to agree with you here...

We can all talk about the defensive issues of Ramirez all day, and while they’re true to some extent, he’s not that much worse a defender than our current right fielder, and while Hawpe’s bat makes him an overall positive, Manny’s bat would make him a big plus for any team. The bigger issue for him and a better area to focus our wishcasting will be how he adjusts to the new parks and new style of play, buut in the end, I don’t know how you can come to any conclusion other than that this is a big coup for the Dodgers.

by Rox Girl on Aug 1, 2008 11:35 AM MDT up reply actions

the quote

“but it’s probably more likely that Manny has a big second half and the Dodgers make it to the post-season”....that is exactly what I see. I doubt Manny’s defense will cost them many (if any) games. But his bat is undeniable. The dodgers are a LOT better today than they were yesterday. And they were already better than us.

by Teekalong on Aug 1, 2008 11:35 AM MDT reply actions