Tulowitzki vs Iannetta - did we lock up the wrong young player?
This was taken from another board I frequent. These are just my thoughts, open for debate/discussion. I don't claim to be the best evaluator of baseball talent. [/ disclaimer]
Post #1 (by me)
Also I think the Rockies extended the wrong rookie.
Not that tulo isn't a potential stud if he recovers from this season, but iannetta has shown an obp about .060-.080 higher than his ba his entire career, and that's major league stuff any way you look at it.
Post #2 (by Mandoira)
Actually Tulo has an IsoD (obp - ba) that's just as good as Iannetta's. Even this year: .166/.246/.298.
It's why even with his slumping this year I think Tulo will turn it around. He's still walking, he's still fairly patient. He's just had bad luck and has had a bit of a power outage.
He'll be fine, I'm really not worried. Just a lot of bad luck at once (bad babip, bad injury, unlucky injury).
Post #3 (by me)
I don't disagree with you, I want Tulo to do well, but I'd like to bring another ballplayer to attention who ALSO had good ISO:
2004 25 COL NL .297/.340/.484 (ISO .187)
2005 26 COL NL .313/.371/.563 (ISO .250)
2006 27 COL NL .169/.222/.356 (ISO .187)
I'm not really saying the two are directly comparable. I'm just saying I don't really buy into ISO as a good metric of measuring a player's batting talent.
I have been impressed with some of Tulo's ABs since the Dl visit, he's taken a lot of borderline pitches, for better or for worse, and he'll start making some quality ABs when he gets back.
I just have a hardon for Iannetta. He was batting like .220 last season, and I thought "Welp, time to farm another 'CATCHER OF THE FUTURE'". But I decided to take a quick look at his stats, and he still had an OBP of .330 - which is good enough to be batting 8th in a major league lineup. (Just to compare, Yorvy had a massive .323 OBP and grounded into 19 DPs.)
Iannetta is a more patient hitter than Tulo - not by much, but he is. Tulo is getting better. Tulo takes 3.78 P/PA (career) to Iannetta's 4.00. It's not a monstrous difference, but when you watch the two batting, Iannetta seems more composed. Tulo's just itching to murder the baseball. It's kind of intangible, really.
The one thing that is bothering me about Tulowitzki is he's acting like a spoiled brat. Slamming the bat into the ground after a clutch K, getting all pissy and such. Quintanilla is giving Tulowitzki and his 31M contract a run for all that money. I like the attitudes Baker, Barmes, and Q have had this season, knowing that A. They're competing for 2B, and B. being very modest and patient and waiting for their turn to play. Baker is all power, Q is all fielding, and Barmes is all contact. Tulowitzki has shown he can be all 3 if he wants to be, but this most recent DL trip caused by throwing a temper tantrum isn't especially impressive.
If I were Clint Hurdle, I'd take Tulowitzki aside and basically give him an earful. Tell him that he's gonna sit and watch every single AB, etc, teach him a lesson, and treat him like a rookie, like a young kid, some callup. He needs to start behaving like a professional if he's gonna be played as one.
Crash Davis posted:
They're kids, scare 'em
Rockies fans deserve better than Tulo is giving them. Not just in performance, but you don't see Helton and his .268 AVG snapping his bat, cutting his hand, etc. Hawpe is batting around .250 (and is starting to look like a poor man's Adam Dunn with a better arm) and yet he's handling it like a professional baseball player. And he just got a decent extension.
For someone as loved in Denver as Tulowitzki (you heard the TULO chant going on during all his ABs), he needs to start acting like a star and not like a crying child.
Eat. Drink. Be Merry. But the above FanPost does not necessarily reflect the attitudes, opinions, or views of Purple Row's staff.
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The Tulo chant....
may be one of the problems, resulting in Tulo trying too hard to make things happen too quickly, which is how I think he got into his funk this year.
I wish they’d stop with the Tulo chant, to be quite honest with you. It annoys me anyway, and probably just hypes up the pitcher he’s facing to want to get him out even more.
by GoRoxGo on Jul 6, 2008 1:20 AM MDT 0 recs
I don't know
if there’s ever been a scientific study on chants, but I doubt if they really have any influence on the outcome of a particular play. We’ve all seen guys whiff while getting a standing ovation with the bases loaded and we’ve all seen pitchers give up home runs to number nine hitters while the crowd is going wild.
by 4thturn on Jul 6, 2008 9:05 AM MDT 0 recs
The last commenter compares Tulo to Helton and Hawpe
Both of whom have several years of experience and age on Troy. Maturity by its very nature doesn’t come overnight, and obviously Tulo’s getting a lot of that this season. I don’t think he needs the earful from Hurdle, I think the ramifications of his childish behavior are enough of a teaching tool and he’s smart enough to learn from them. The kid who never before experienced losing is getting it fed to him in spoonfuls this year. I’m willing to bet he comes back in 2009 a different player.
As for the extension, I think there’s no reason to not sign both, and I’d expect Iannetta to get his deal as soon as this winter. There was no reason to give him an extension after 2007 because there were still plenty of questions surrounding his longterm MLB viability, now those questions have seemingly been answered. If you’re a small market team you’ve got to lock up talent up the middle since it’s so hard to find and be willing to let overpriced corners go. That’s why I see Tulo and Iannetta and hopefully Fowler as franchise cornerstones, and not necessarily Holliday or Atkins or Stewart.
by Rox Girl on Jul 6, 2008 9:35 AM MDT 0 recs
I'm going to go the other way on the extensions
- The Rockies are salary controlled, and are around league average 75-79 Million per. Which is workable, but every dime counts. There is no reason to give extra money
- Tulo had only one good year, and even his rookie year wasn’t smooth through out. Yes, he has up side. Yes, he has intangibles as a leader, but he still has proven he’s not Angel Berroa who I remind was also a Rookie of the Year, and the future of the Royals franchise. Tulo hasn’t proven he’s better than Clint Barmes (who is winning me over)
- Iannetta doesn’t need an extension yet either, though….we may be one to try and lock up (after his pre-arbitration years)mostly due to lack of quality Catchers in baseball.
But the extensions I would not have given that I think are bigger mistakes than Tulowitzki’s: Corpas: He was young, pre-arbitration, no long term track record, and a reliever (who are notoriously up and down), and Hawpe, who isn’t much of a hitter, and not much of fielder. Last year his final numbers looked better than he ever has in a game. He look easily replaceable, and I don’t see the contract need for Hawpe. And lastly Francis. Yes, I know he have a home town discount, and he was about to go to arbitration. But I’m just not a fan of soft throwing lefties, with out consistent control.
Bottom, line, if the Rockies had the money from Corpas, Hawpe, and Frances that they didn’t have to spend, I think there would be enough money for say and Erik Bedard type (or at least a good down payment)
I miss baseball. Can we fire Clint Hurdle and Dan O'Dowd now?
by Redhawk on
Jul 6, 2008 10:59 AM MDT
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In fact
The Mariners would love to trade Bedard for Corpas, Hawpe, and Francis. (which only works if the Rockies could sing Bedard, and I don’t think Bedard has any plans besides going to FA). But if that trade could be pulled off, Bedard, repaces and upgrades Francis spot, Seth Smith replaces Hawpe, and Corpas is replaced by Speier, and even if Bedard doesn’t sign, we could get back into the NL west race, and not hurt us too much in the future.
The Rockies have extra pieces, I hope they try to move some this year.
I miss baseball. Can we fire Clint Hurdle and Dan O'Dowd now?
by Redhawk on
Jul 6, 2008 11:04 AM MDT
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I can't believe Tulo is being compared
to Barmes or Q. No disrespect, but I don’t see the talent level anywhere close among those 3 players. Q is a defensive talent, but I don’t think even his defensive is as good as Tulo, and offense isn’t close. I see the low avg., but I think that has to do w/ injuries now allowing him to make the adjustment that pitching has made to him, which I think he would have made by now. I think Barmes is on his way back to something more in line w/ his talents, which I see as a .260-.280 type hitter w/ less power than Tulo. And Barmes doesn’t have the range of Tulo. Just using the eye test keeps from believing Q or Barmes could put up the typse of consistent seasons Tulo is capable of.
As far as Corpas being replaced for Speier, I don’t see that either. I think Corpas is starting to get it back together, and again I don’t see Speier w/ the type of stuff to ever put together a season close to something Corpas is capable of and Speier hasn’t done it yet. In fact I don’t think Speier belongs on the roster, and I would rather see Weathers.
As far as Hawpe being replaced by Smith, that is something I could see and I wouldn’t have a problem w/. Smith has less power, but would make better contact and play a better defense w/ obvioulsy a lesser arm. A Hawpe trade is something I wouldn’t be completely against, although I do like Hawpe.
by smokinRox on
Jul 7, 2008 10:56 PM MDT
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As far as Speier
goes, I know he is in AAA right now, I am just saying, that is probably the place for him. If someone is going to come back up to help the BP in the future, I would rather see Weathers, thats how it should have been worded.
by smokinRox on
Jul 7, 2008 10:59 PM MDT
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We agree more than we are different
As for Corpas, I’m just saying he’s not so irreplaceable that he warranted his contract extension. He’s good, and better than Speier, but not big time contract better. Especially when the Rockies didn’t have to pay Corpas that contract money.
As for Q…I think he’s a very good back up player. I also agree Barmes doesn’t have the range OR the power that Tulo has shown. But I think Barmes might actually be what he’s shown, and that is a solid .290 hitter with double, and rbi production. Tulo I’m still out on. Do I think he could be better? yes….Does he worry me that he could be a HUGE bust, based on the expecations, that he’s Ripkin type franchise player?.....oh yeah.
I’m just saying there was no reason to hand out long term contracts to these guys, and pay them extra money at the stage they were in their careers.
I miss baseball. Can we fire Clint Hurdle and Dan O'Dowd now?
by Redhawk on
Jul 8, 2008 8:38 AM MDT
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May I remind you...
Tulo, unlike Berroa, was not a Rookie of the Year.
by Hizilla on
Jul 6, 2008 12:37 PM MDT
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Let's just disspell this right now
because I’m tired of this comparison that lacks any insight into the respective situations:
Tulowitzki is not Angel Berroa
Similarites: Play shortstop. Had good rookie seasons.
Differences: Everything else
Let’s first look at Berroa: Angel was always considered a solid prospect coming up, but not near the caliber of Troy. Berroa won the ROY backed by a media disdain for aged Japanese sluggers, and the enchantment that KC may have a “homegrown” talent. Numbers-wise, he was merely solid in counting numbers, but reflected poor plate discipline (4.9% walk rate) and subpar defensive numbers placing more emphasis on his defense. As things began to unwind for Berroa, his walk rate plummeted to a miniscule 2.9% over ‘05 and ‘06. All the while his defense grew worse, his power dropped (slipping ISO), and his K rate grew. Berroa morphed into a swing at everything, suddenly slow base prodder who couldn’t hit for average or power, nor carry the glove at the major league level.
The first big difference with Tulo is that the defense was amazing for year one, and though the highlight reel hasn’t run as much, his numbers defensively haven’t dropped off. His RZR would top the NL if he qualified, and for that alone, he deserves to play every day on a team that preaches grounders. FOR THIS REASON ALONE, Tulo’s extension is worth it.
Now for the hitting woes. Unlike Berroa, Tulo’s walk rates was a solid 8.6% last year and has improved to 9% this season. Similarly, the K rate has also dropped from 21.3% to 14.6% this year. His ISO has fallen, but that isn’t uncommon when the batting average dips tremendously. Now about that average… Tulo’s BABIP is a miniscule .175 on the year. Nothing is falling his way, and he’s even putting more balls in play. The problem may be with his hit type rates. Tulo’s FB and LD rates are down, while the GB% is up. That generally suggests a mechanical issue with his swing, but I trust he can overcome this as well.
The peripheral numbers are all present for a Tulo comeback. He just needs two things to break his way: More luck on the balls put in play, and an adjustment to get more lift on the ball. I can’t solve the second part, but the first will be handled by the law of averages.
by David OhNo on
Jul 6, 2008 1:13 PM MDT
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Aw...not so fast
you can’t just dismiss the Berroa comparison out of hand, as you can some how magically see the future. You are correct that Tulo’s D numbers look the same (exact same fielding % of .987). But his hitting numbers are a worry.
Berroa: .287 BA his ROY followed by .262, then .270
Tulo: .291, followed by .166…...that’s alarming.
Now can Tulo rebound? possibly, but he also might not. Baseball is littered with one year wonders that fade away fast. Which is sad, but in Tulo’s case the contract will be an issue if that happens. Now throw in the fact that Barmes is red hot as is Baker, and Q, and Tulo’s bad bat (and contract) is a drag to the team, (er was) as it was blocking a better offensive line up.
I’m saying you can’t predict the future. Going in with blind purple colored glasses, because some one was a great prospect, will have an organization, slow to make correct decisions. Throw in an unneeded contract before the jury was back in….muddies it up more. Tulo might be Angel Berroa. In fact, I wish Tulo was hitting as “badly” as Berroa did his disappointing second year.
I miss baseball. Can we fire Clint Hurdle and Dan O'Dowd now?
by Redhawk on
Jul 6, 2008 1:52 PM MDT
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The problem is
you aren’t trying to look into why these guys are one hit wonders, why some guys just fail, and why in other instances, these players bounce back. Using batting average as your example tells us close to nothing, to be kind.
It’s easy to look at a situation and take it for what’s shown as face, but unless you try and explain why it is the way it is, you haven’t discovered anything.
by David OhNo on
Jul 6, 2008 2:26 PM MDT
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Sophomore slump
Right now I’m going to chalk up the whole Tulo season to the dreaded “sophomore Slump”, and I think Tulo will not only persevere, but also come out stronger for the experience. I admit however, that is not a foregone conclusion. While I generally liked the extension, you could have certainly made the argument then that there is no need to hand out long term extensions to rookies as policy. This seemed like an acceptable exception at the time, and I’m not going to second guess management there…... Too much. The other thing I try to remind myself, is that Tulo actually started out last year looking pretty over-matched. The maturity issue is new this year, but if there was one guy on the team that I think could work through that, it’s Tulo.
As for Ianetta….. I say give him the bulk of the playing time the rest of the year and see what happens. His defense bothers me a little bit, but otherwise I think he’s going to be an average to above average catcher for quite some time. Barring injuries of course, which is a reality for anyone behind the plate. I just don’t know that he’s the superstar-in-training that Tulo seems/seemed to be last year though, so any contract extension would have to be less pressing in my book.
by IowaRockie on Jul 6, 2008 12:22 PM MDT 0 recs
I disagree
that Tulo should be treated like a stupid rookie for showing his emotion. Sure, it was expressed in an immature way and he should know better than to do things like that - you end up with fluke injuries such as the one he just suffered. But giving Hurdle a chance to be self-righteous about how “he’s just a kid” isn’t the solution. Tulo IS a kid, lest we all forget, and not yet mature, as a player or a person, at the age of just 23. He has a long time to go, a lot of raw talent, and I too believe that all the pieces are in place for a rebound next season. He has an incredible work ethic, passion, and desire to play baseball - it’s his life, and why his emotion sometimes shows through in unproductive ways.
Hurdle does need to talk to Tulo about it, as I’m sure he has, but further humiliating him isn’t a good idea. I imagine Tulo already feels bad enough about it, as evidenced by his quotes from the press conference. He realizes it was a stupid thing to do, as it was, and the choice to not do it in the first place will have to come in the following years. I think, however, that one of the reasons Tulo is so loved is that the average fan knows for a certainty that he cares as much as they do. Fans as a breed get MUCH more involved than the players, who have learned to shake it off, go out there again, your basic baseball interview cliche, etc. But Tulo is the kind of guy that you know is bothered as much by losing as you are, and while you’re sure the other guys care as well, it isn’t immediately obvious. That’s why PR starts calling for Hurdle to get ejected, throw some water coolers, etc, in the middle of a bad losing streak - so we can at least see that the frustration is tangible. We WANT them to be completely wrapped up in it, even if they aren’t. And Tulo shows that. No one has ever doubted that he cares deeply - maybe even a little too much. His passion should be commended even as his emotion should be better controlled. It’ll come. Tulo has a bright future and will rebound from these setbacks. I think it’s much too early to judge the contract a failure.
As for Iannetta, most of PR is in agreement that he’s still shamefully underused, and he may be the first genuine catching prospect we’ve developed in a while. (Where have you gone, Ben Petrick….) Hurdle still hasn’t caught on that CDI has developed the ability to be a full-time starter, especially after his rebound from his tough year last year. Eventually, we hope, the rest of the brain trust will cotton on. I hope we keep him around for a while. Catchers that can also hit are a fairly rare breed.
We are all dead.
by Silverblood on Jul 6, 2008 2:41 PM MDT 1 recs
Agree on all fronts
the fact that Tulo got hurt is freak in nature, but what he did probably happens every night in some dugout in this league. It’s a side-effect to a competitive nature, and I won’t hold it against him that this one time he happened to get hurt.
by David OhNo on
Jul 6, 2008 2:49 PM MDT
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Tulo was thrown under the bus...
by Hurdle on TBS’s All-Star selection show tofay. Did anyone else see it?
Clint was asked about the Tulo injury, and he said he met privately with Tulo, didn’t go into any detail on that conversation, but said that as far as he was concerned, Tulo “let his team down” by behaving that way. I thought Clint’s tone was pretty angry, and got the feeling there may be some hard feelings between him and Tulo right now.
Hurdle has blasted players to the press in the past, but I’m sort of surprised he would do it to Tulo in front of a national television audience today. I feel bad for Tulo now.
by GoRoxGo on Jul 6, 2008 5:32 PM MDT 0 recs
Hurdle's right
Didn’t see the segment in question, but Tulo absolutely has let his team down by allowing his anger to get the best of him. Of course it was a fluke injury, but it doesn’t happen at all if he handles being taken out of the game in a professional matter.
And frankly, Hurdle has the right to be upset – if you take a player out of the game and they start throwing things around in the dugout, that’s showing the decision, and by proxy the man making the decision, a lack of respect.
I believe Tulo will learn from this incident and be a better leader for it in the future, but I fully understand where Hurdle’s coming from.
Staying on the sunny side of Blake Street since 1993.
by Franchise26 on
Jul 6, 2008 5:48 PM MDT
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Hurdle
was absolutely wrong to throw Tulo under the bus to the national media. That just emphasizes the kind of jerk Hurdle is. Tulo apologized in a press conference and yet Hurdle has to nationally embarrass the guy. But this is the same guy who publicly admitted to stabbing Buddy Bell in the back to get his job and then wondered why Bell doesn’t talk to him.
by DieHardRox on
Jul 7, 2008 1:32 PM MDT
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BABIP
Regarding Tulo’s low BA … his batting average on balls in play (BABIP) is .174. This tends to be around .300 for nearly all players. Large deviations from .300 are typically due to luck (I don’t have the raw numbers in front of me, but leafing through Shandler’s forecaster seems to indicate that around 90% of players are between .270 and .330 BABIP). A guy who is far above or far below .300 BABIP over the short term will tend to regress toward .300 over the long term.
If Tulo’s had a .300 BABIP, his BA would be .271.
Granted, his LD rate is also down slightly this year (19% vs. 22%), but given the small sample size, it’s a difference of 4 fewer line drives.
I think he’ll bounce back in the second half. 151 BA is a pretty small sample size – nothing to get overly concerned about. Heck, in the year when Helton hit .372, he endured a 79 AB stretch in which he hit just .227.
I’ll wait until 400-500 AB before getting too concerned.
by kosmo99 on Jul 7, 2008 7:19 AM MDT 0 recs
I agree.....
Not only do the numbers suggest a bounceback for Tulo, but my eyes do also. I’ve seen an unusual number of hard hit balls to the left side particularly (either low liners or sharp grounders) go right to the fielders, either being caught or being turned into groundouts. Seems Tulo hasn’t been able to find any holes on the left side. That’s probably the cause of his low BABIP.
Tulo’s K-rate being down this year is also encouraging to me. His walk rate is also looking decent, so I would think he will get hot at some point. If he gets another 250 ABs before the season’s over, I’d guess he will end up somewhere around .240 – .260 on the year. Still a sophomore slump year, but not quite so ugly.
by GoRoxGo on
Jul 7, 2008 6:42 PM MDT
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I agree
Tulo is a young kid and his maturity has not caught up to his game maturity, and I’ll even cut Hurdle slack because he should know his players well enough to know what he needs to do to further his development. The enviable position the Rockies have is that Ianetta, Barmes and Quintanilla all deserve playing time and decent contracts. They are really good, so how do you satisfy that? Then you add Baker and you have a jam of monumental proportions. If this is really a regrouping year then I say do some radical trading now, let these guys get the playing time they deseve, and invest in the Rockies future by getting pitching, the only position they don’t have an abundance.
by Island fox on Jul 7, 2008 9:45 PM MDT 0 recs
Hindsight
Lots of questions about the Tulo signing now after this season’s disappointment, but not too many had my back in January when almost all the press and reaction otherwise was as positive as could be. It was blasphemy.
Everybody - the team especially - was in a state of wonderland. They could do nothing wrong, or so they thought, but just about everything done this off-season has gone wrong. Including something that was so universally applauded for such a great kid.
The Rockies preached PATIENCE for years going down bumpy roads, but once it became smooth sailing that map went out the window. Two months later, they go handing out huge checks that aren’t quite earned yet beyond what anybody else in the game had done to that point. Seven months later, it almost feels like we’re getting ready to pull the plug on this group of players everyone was so excited about as trade winds swirl. What happened to patience?
There were warning signs about Tulo’s offense last year. To me anyway as I argued a good chunk of the winter. Certainly it could be argued that the talent is there to erase those questions down future roads, but that’s a a high price for speculation that hadn’t been proven yet. Certainly hasn’t been answered yet, and a strong bat has to be part of the record-breaking financial package because defense alone doesn’t cost that much.
As much as I swam against the tide when the signing happened, I also think the predictable media reaction now is overblown. Tulo’s their guy now. They didn’t have to do it just yet but now that they have crowned him with such importance within the organization, fans of the team have to hope that he bounces back strongly from this disappointing season and that these experiences and lessons learned drive him toward even higher accomplishments in the future. It certainly can, as he hopefully has a very bright future still ahead.
I don’t mind the emotional outburst as much as some. His fire and attitude initially was a much needed addition to the team and helped change the clubhouse culture. That’s great on a winner, but as he’s seeing it needs to be controlled—especially as a team leader to keep the team going through the hard times that everyone faces.
If Tulo was having a common sophomore slump as a minimum contract youngster, it isn’t that big of a deal and just part of the process for many on their way to stardom. Put $31 million on it for a team that pinches every penny, and that’s a pressure that didn’t need to be applied yet. It also creates the almost inevitable other shoe falling, where you are first glorified in print and then a target for criticism afterwards as icons are built up and brought down. Everything gets magnified.
Iannetta’s seemingly the young star for this team now in the lineup, but he disappointed in early returns himself and needed some additional patience with another chance. I wasn’t a huge fan of the patience plan over the many long years of franchise and fanbase obliteration, but that’s the path chosen and it eventually got them down that long road to success. The organization needs to remember what got them here and not react so strongly to either extreme situations as that usually gets them into trouble.
by HiAspire on Jul 8, 2008 9:16 AM MDT 0 recs








