Livan Hernandez
by PioneerSkies
on Aug 1, 2008 8:19 AM MDT
Word on the street is that the Twins are ready to bring Francisco Liriano back up to the Major League ranks. To do this they will need to make room on the roster. Rumor has it that the Twins will DFA Livan Hernandez to make room. Apparently Minnesota's front office is willing to eat the rest of his $5 million contract.
Hernandez is 10-8 with a 5.48 ERA. He has slumped lately, but was solid earlier in the year (about the time the Twins came to Coors Field). If the Twins end up DFA'ing Hernandez, should the Rockies look into claiming the Cuban off waivers? He has a good rep as an innings eater, and, if nothing else, he's sure better than Valerio De Los Santos.
Your thoughts?
Eat. Drink. Be Merry. But the above FanPost does not necessarily reflect the attitudes, opinions, or views of Purple Row's staff.
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He's at the end of a nice long career
which is better than Glendon Rusch or DLR….who are in the middle of very middling careers (at best). I’ve always like Livan. His games look better than his numbers do usually. Right now we have 2 major league pitchers. Livan is a step up for a #4. Hopefully Francis will be an ok #3 pitcher when gets back, and Rusch can be an ok #5.
It buys us some time for the rest of the year. Hopefully next year, we will have Morales and Hirsh ready again, as well as Reynolds who may have an out pitch by then.
How much gas is in that tank?
But the real up side: I can sing, “LIVAN…..LIVAN likes his money…....And he MaKeS a lot they sayyyyy” when ever he pitches.
Thought Clint Hurdle should be fired before it was cool.
by Redhawk on Aug 1, 2008 9:03 AM MDT 0 recs
Livan would be a good idea
for the Rox to look at. I think we need to remember that whoever is added will not be replacing De Los Santos, but either De La Rosa or Rusch. De Los Santos will make 1 more start probably tomorrow and be done when Francis comes back on Tuesday, so anyone we add would replace of the Rose or Rusch in the rotation. If De La Rosa could be moved to the BP, and Wells dropped and Livan added to the rotation I would be all for it. He is an innings eater and would look even better against NL lineups.
by smokinRox on Aug 1, 2008 9:23 AM MDT 0 recs
inning eater
is such a misleading “quality”, but that aside, i’d take him.
I give dlr one more start, and I have no problem leaving Rusch in the rotation for now. He throws a lot of strikes, and even though they may be hits, he’s not walking a lot of guys, so he cab usually give us 5 or 6 decent innings. Dlr has NASTY stuff, but those walks are destroying him.
It's Tricky to rock a rhyme, to rock a rhyme that's right on time It's Tulowitzki!...Tulo-witzki-witzki-witzki ..... rockiesmagicnumber.blogspot.com
by RockiesMagicNumber on Aug 1, 2008 10:32 AM MDT 0 recs
Innings eater
can be misleading, but it means they throw strikes for the most part, they are healthy, and at least somewhat effective, otherwise they wouldn’t be able to pitch a lot of innings. Those are qualities we could use right now, and the last thing it saves the BP, especially from the front of the BP which is usually the weakest. Ours is especially bad right now, when you look at Wells, Grilli, and Herges, I don’t have much faith in those 3 right now.
I love the “stuff” that DLR has, and I wish he would throw more strikes, but when he’s not he can give up runs in bunches. I wish some of these guys that can throw hard w/ life on the ball, and have more than 1 quality pitch would realize they could dominate if they would just pund the strike zone, and not every pitch has to be a quality strike. They can get away w/ some mistakes, because of their electric stuff. Most importantly starting strike 1, considering how many hitters take the 1st pitch.
by smokinRox on
Aug 1, 2008 11:24 AM MDT
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The man can hit too.....
Livan would be one of our best PH options in Coors, and would be a sensible pickup.
by GoRoxGo on Aug 1, 2008 4:40 PM MDT 0 recs
Stop it.
Look at Livan’s numbers again. The guy has given up 199 hits in 137.2 innings and has just 54 strikeouts. He is not fooling ANYBODY. There were fights at the bat rack in the opposing dugout during his starts. You’ve got to be pretty awful to get cut in a season in which you’ve got 10 wins.
If you think Livan Hernandez is so dramatically better than the de la Rosa and Rusch’s of the world at this point in his career, you are a fool. But hey, go ahead and rip Dan O’Dowd for not going out and signing this washed-up pitcher just because he used to be famous and you think it would be a good idea.
Staying on the sunny side of Blake Street since 1993.
by Franchise26 on Aug 1, 2008 10:58 PM MDT 0 recs
Comon sour puss
don’t you want to sing,
AND….HE SHALLL BEEEEEE LEEEEEVVVVOOOONNNNN
??
And DLR and Rusch, are pretty bad. That’s assuming Francis has no issues with his return.
Thought Clint Hurdle should be fired before it was cool.
by Redhawk on
Aug 1, 2008 11:49 PM MDT
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not fooling anybody...
If you think Livan Hernandez is so dramatically better than the de la Rosa and Rusch’s of the world at this point in his career, you are a fool.
This season, Livan Hernandez has a 1.632 WHIP and a 5.48 ERA, while Jorge De La Rosa has a 1.654 WHIP and a 6.94. Batters get on base against JDLR just as much as Livan, but Livan has done a better job of limiting the runs they produce.
More telling is the fact that De La Rosa has given up 35 BBs in 71 innings, while Livan has given up only 29 BBs in 139 innings. Hernandez has issued fewer walks in almost twice as many innings. He has better command of the strike zone and does a better job of working ahead in the count. Sure, batters will get their hits off Livan, but won’t be scoring as much. This is evidenced by the fact that Livan’s ERA is nearly 1.5 lower than DLR’s ERA. Don’t forget that Livan put up these numbers in the American League, where he doesn’t have an all-but-automatic out when the opposing pitcher bats.
Go ahead and call me a fool, but, even at the twilight of his career, Livan Hernandez is a better pitcher than Jorge De La Rosa.
Aut Vincam Aut Periam
by PioneerSkies on
Aug 2, 2008 9:05 AM MDT
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OK
There’s a lot more to this story than ERA. Livan is lucky to have such a low ERA.
Fielding independant ERA for the two pitchers:
Hernandez: 4.60
de la Rosa: 4.58
Normalized fielding independant ERA:
Hernandez 4.70
de la Rosa: 4.21
Line drive percentage:
Hernandez: 21.8%
de la Rosa: 19.7%
Ks per 9 – wait, never mind, I don’t want to embarrass Hernandez like this. Oh, wait, I do:
Hernandez: 3.48
de la Rosa: 9.84
de la Rosa is pitching better this season. He has been betrayed by his defense (a .644 DER behind him compared to a .655 DER behind Livan) and, yes, his own troubles with control. But we aren’t even having this conversation if JDLR hadn’t stunk so much his last time out. Such is the fickleness of the average fan, I suppose.
Staying on the sunny side of Blake Street since 1993.
by Franchise26 on
Aug 2, 2008 9:49 AM MDT
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Reliability
There is something to be said for Livan’s consistency (even if it is consistent mediocrity or worse).
JDLR has been pretty dominant at times and a total disaster at others. At this point I like him in the rotation (compared to our other options) and Rusch has been more solid than I expected but if Francis doesn’t come back on time or the wheels fall off of one of those two then Livan probably qualifies as an improvement over guys like De Los Santos or whoever else we might run out there.
by MADness on
Aug 2, 2008 10:14 AM MDT
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I suppose that's a matter of taste
I’ll prefer to pass on consistency if it’s consistently awful, which Livan has been this season.
Staying on the sunny side of Blake Street since 1993.
by Franchise26 on
Aug 2, 2008 10:40 AM MDT
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Better options?
All of the Rockies options for the bottom of the rotation suck.
A candidate doesn’t have to be good, he doesn’t have to be average, he doesn’t even have to be adequate – he just has to suck a tiny bit less than the other candidates.
by MADness on
Aug 2, 2008 11:27 AM MDT
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consistently awful
You’re right. Livan Hernandez has been consistently awful this season, especially when he started the year at 6-1 with a 3.90 ERA.
Aut Vincam Aut Periam
by PioneerSkies on
Aug 2, 2008 12:01 PM MDT
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I can
Cherry-pick a portion of JDLR’s season to show that he should win the Cy Young. Don’t give me that crap. Look at the full picture.
In fact, look at how he’s been the most fortunate batting practice pitcher in baseball over the last season and a half. You’re comfortable putting a pitcher who doesn’t strike anybody out and gives up a ton of hits in a ballpark that punishes those kinds of pitchers? Suit yourself. Thank Christ you’re not the GM.
Staying on the sunny side of Blake Street since 1993.
by Franchise26 on
Aug 2, 2008 2:41 PM MDT
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Geeze
why did you have to go there? Couldn’t you have just agreed to disagree? I mean, you both have very good points. but NOOOO you can’t acknowledge that…you have to be an ass.
Thought Clint Hurdle should be fired before it was cool.
by Redhawk on
Aug 2, 2008 3:01 PM MDT
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You win
I can see now that Livan is no Elmer Dessens.
What were we thinking?
by MADness on
Aug 2, 2008 3:18 PM MDT
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Contenders
Seriously, how is it that Livan has been so horrible the last year and a half yet he has continued to make start after start for teams that are superior to the Rockies during that period of time (and teams that clearly have better starting pitching and thus more options to replace him)?
If the Red Sox or the Angels were trading for him it would be crazy but a team with only two major league average starting pitchers in the five man rotation is another story.
by MADness on
Aug 2, 2008 3:21 PM MDT
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Counterpoint
First, It’s about to be three with Francis’s return.
Second: yes, he was making start after start for a Minnesota team with a better record than the Rockies and better young rotation depth – until they decided to cut his fat ass, which is the very reason we’re having this conversation. Let’s not forget that the Twins were the only team willing to take a flyer on him at the beginning of the season. Now they don’t want anything to do with them. Unlike some of you, the Twins aren’t fooled by the record. They know he’s not a good big league pitcher anymore.
Now I’m not going to say that he’s dramatically worse than Rusch (I certainly believe he’s worse than de la Rosa – at least JDLR can get a strikeout every now and then, and if he weren’t coming off that hideous outing the other night, nobody would be dogging on him at all). But I don’t think he’s so much better than Rusch that it’d be worth spending any significant money on him at this point. It has been established by his release that he is not good enough to pitch for a contender this season.
I know he’s got a famous name. I know the back of his baseball card looks pretty. But to me, bringing him in wouldn’t be any different than bringing in Steve Finley last year. We’d be bringing him in because – strictly because – he’s got a famous name and an impressive past – and praying that he can do better than an incumbent (with Finley, it was Sullivan – with Livan, I suppose it’d be Rusch). It’s a grass-is-always-greener mentality that has led to some pretty silly moves on the Rockies part in the past. Consider ourselves lucky if we don’t make the same mistake with Livan Hernandez.
Staying on the sunny side of Blake Street since 1993.
by Franchise26 on
Aug 2, 2008 4:45 PM MDT
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You're all absolutely right.
Livan Hernandez is the worst possible option for this team. Every 5 games, we can trot out De Los Santos, have him go 4 ineffective innings, and then put the game in the hands of Kip Wells, Jason Grilli, and Matt Herges. There’s no way we lose like that.
Or if that doesn’t work, we can always promote Kip Wells back to the rotation or call up Josh Towers!
Or even better, let’s wreck the development and rehab of one of our other young talented pitchers, like Greg Reynolds, Jason Hirsh, or Franklin Morales!
Look, I know none of these are good options. There’s no way someone claims Livan Hernandez off of waivers. So when he clears, we can pick up a guy who:
A. Sucks
B. Can pitch 6+ innings a game, nearly guaranteed.
If our rotation looked like
1. Cook
2. Baldo
3. Francis
4. Rusch
5. Hernandez
I wouldn’t complain. Cook can pitch into the 7th/8th on a nightly basis, as can Hernandez, Baldo is starting to show that he can get there as well, Rusch is capable of QS-style pitching (I’ve always had a soft spot for Rusch. I thought got a bad rap in Chicago and then had the same pulmonary embolisms that Cook did), and Francis is showing no shoulder pain and all the signs of coming back and being effective. To break that down again:
1. Cook – will pitch into the 7th, maybe beyond, and will have pitched well enough to maintain the lead, and be in line for the win.
2. Baldo – pitch count will be up by time he hits the 6th, but he’s shown this weird knack of that being his best inning, giving the pen another inning of a break
3. Francis – complete wild card. I imagine he’s a guaranteed yank after 6IP no matter what, giving way to Corpas, Buchholz, Fuentes. If he shows up looking good, maybe he’ll start pitching into the 7th.
4. Rusch – see Francis, but leave off the last sentence.
5. Hernandez – See Cook, but forget everything past the word “beyond”. That whole “beyond” part is all I care about. Even if he sucks, and gives up 5 runs in 8 innings, that means we don’t have to watch Grilli give up back to back triples and such.
I, for one, say sign Livan Hernandez once he clears waivers. For the prorated league minimum, I predict he’d be no worse than trotting any other schlub out there, and I’d rather not be putting in Jason Grilli or Matt Herges with anything less than a 4-run lead or better, so with the innings he gives, I say take a shot. Worst comes we just put DLR back in.
It's Tricky to rock a rhyme, to rock a rhyme that's right on time It's Tulowitzki!...Tulo-witzki-witzki-witzki ..... rockiesmagicnumber.blogspot.com
by RockiesMagicNumber on Aug 3, 2008 12:05 AM MDT 0 recs
So....
The reason you want to pick up Livan Hernandez, who admittedly sucks, is… so we don’t have to use our middle relief, who you think sucks too?
Look, take de los Santos out of the equation. He’s just made his last start for the Rockies unless somebody gets hurt between now and when Francis comes back. He’s no longer an entity to consider replacing, because he is going to be replaced.
You really would rather have Hernandez than de la Rosa? Opponents are hitting .341 against Livan this year. THREE FREAKING FORTY-ONE. With 18 homers and only 54 Ks. For some perspective – that’s like a Joe DiMaggio type season that opponents are having against Livan. JDLR’s OAVG is almost 50 points lower, at .292. Still not exactly Cy Young caliber, but for God’s sake, that’s a significant difference that we’re overlooking because – ONLY BECAUSE:
A: JDLR sucked out loud in his most recent start, and we are horribly afflicted with a short-term memory around here, it would appear;
B: Livan Hernandez is more famous.
I guess I can’t convince you guys that JDLR isn’t an awful pitcher. That’s all he is – I’m not trying to build him up as a vital rotation cog. In a perfect world, he’s not on the big club. But he’s better than Livan Hernandez right now, regardless of what the ever-flawed ERA stat would suggest. Add to that that putting a hit-prone, homer-prone pitcher like Livan in Coors is a recipe for disaster… and I just can’t see any argument that supports signing him. Especially not: “If he sucks, he’ll suck for lots of innings and we won’t have to see Jason Grilli, who also sucks” (by the way, no, he really doesn’t all that much, last two outings notwithstanding… geez, again with the short-term memory).
Staying on the sunny side of Blake Street since 1993.
by Franchise26 on
Aug 3, 2008 12:36 AM MDT
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I like DLR
I think DLR should keep pitching. I just see him as a bigger bullpen candidate because he never gets groundballs, and his walk rate is astronomical as well, so he can barely get past the 5th/6th. I made the case for keeping DLR because his last 2 starts were so good.
Basically until Rusch pitches like garbage, I say keep him. He doesn’t walk many at all, he throws strikes. Hernandez throws strikes, doesn’t walk many, and is coming into the relatively offensively weak NL West. The only team with a hitter VORP even in the same neighborhood is the Dbags (Us: 148.8, Dbags: 100.8).
I’d rather not use our middle relief because they suck worse than Hernandez would going into those later innings..
Look, I’m not suggesting he’s the answer and complete solution to all of our problems. I’m saying he might be this year’s Mark Redman. Because the real Mark Redman is this year’s Tom Martin. And Tom Martin is….well never mind.
Livan Hernandez’s VORP as a pitcher: -5.8
Jorge De La Rosa’s VORP as a pitcher: -10.5
Basically they’re both awful. But DLR is worse.
Annnnnnd BP just crashed on me while trying to look up Jarrod Washburn’s VORP. We should really get him.
It's Tricky to rock a rhyme, to rock a rhyme that's right on time It's Tulowitzki!...Tulo-witzki-witzki-witzki ..... rockiesmagicnumber.blogspot.com
by RockiesMagicNumber on Aug 3, 2008 1:00 AM MDT 0 recs
A poster at Baseball Think Factory put it best:
“Reminds me of the time I was “awarded” herpes.”
Staying on the sunny side of Blake Street since 1993.
by Franchise26 on
Aug 5, 2008 5:39 PM MDT
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“The Rockies were awarded the pitcher because they had the worst record of any of the claiming teams.”
by onholliday on
Aug 5, 2008 9:15 PM MDT
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that is because the other teams with worse records weren’t delusional enough to think they might win their division to spend 2 million dollars on a pitcher whose BAA is near .350.
This is crazy. The money owed him for 2 months of work would be more than all but 10 players on the team make for a year. The money would be better spent by adding to the offer for Holliday or Atkins or spending on a free agent next year—-or on a draft choice that might be difficult to sign. The Rockies need to realize the season is all but lost and if it is going to be saved by a miracle, it is very unlikely that miracle will be a pitcher who can’t get people out.
by DenverBears on
Aug 6, 2008 11:34 AM MDT
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