Friday Morning Rockpile: Standing at 16

Tulsa….I know this belongs in pebble report but it’s not up yet.

I know a lot of guys that stand on 16 in Vegas. They always enjoy playing for a few hours, a few free drinks, and inevitably walk away from the table without any chips.

of the rumored Snell for Morales, E Rodgers, and C Nelson trade that Renck talked about in his game piece today? I like Snell but I’m not sure we are the best team to fix broken pitchers…

what the message is to Atkins and Holliday with the lack of a move to bolster the rotation. The front office is treading on razor thin ice with both of these guys, and I still think management has yet to prove to anyone that they will put a winning MLB team together. They have this winter to sign both of these guys, or this team will be blown apart by this time next season. The truth hurts. In addition, my problem with O’Dowd is timing. We could have used a reliable starter at the back end of the rotation in friggin April or May when the prices were much different. Once again, O’Dowd’s timing is brutal. They had better give Matty their best offer soon, or they’ll get more sandwich picks for him as well.

agree that they are too much in love with their prospects. Florida has the right idea. You have to give to get. Becket for Sanchez and H. Ramirez. I don’t know if O’Dowd is capable of making those kind of moves. But you have to go for the Harens and Hardens to make a difference and quit bottom feeding. You can’t build a consistently decent team without occasionally picking up pieces through decent trades.

As I sit here in my frustration about not having added a starting
pitcher since April, I look to next season and what the Rockies can
and should do to ensure they continue to improve at the Big League
level. First of all, I think Holliday is a goner and I think the
real value is in signing Garrett Atkins to a long term deal. I
would move Holliday for three pitching prospects, two elite looking
AA starters and a high quality bullpen guy. I would ink Atkins to a
six year deal worth 75 million. I would trade Todd Helton to anyone
who would take him, and be willing to eat 8-10 million per season
over the remainder of the contract (but I would hope he thinks long
and hard about hanging it up). I would also move Willy T., and
Torrealba this offseason and I would look to sign a veteran starter
for the back end of the rotation, or keep whomever we get at the
waiver wire this season.

The new lineup would look something like this…

1) Spilly / Seth Smith
2) Tulo
3) Atkins
4) Hawpe
5) Iannetta / Baker
6) Stewart
7) Ianetta / Baker
8) Dexter Fowler

Out of the box, this would almost certainly be the best defensive
team in baseball. The lineup would take a hit w/o the big man in
the middle, but the defensive makeup of this unit is absolutely
stellar.

The starting rotation would look something like this…

1) Cook
2) Jimenez
3) Francis
4) Veteran picked up in offseason or off waiver wire this season
5) Morales / Hirsh

Starting pitching looks similar but looks can be deceiving at the
Major League level. With the trade of Holliday, the Rockies have
loaded up their system and now have five potential arms to call on
when health issues arise in whomever they acquire, Jhoulys Chacin,
Greg Reynolds, Morales or Hirsh. This is a huge upgrade over what
we have had for the past five seasons or so. A bigger issue next
season will be the bullpen. It shakes out like this…

1) Corpas (Closer)
2) Bucholz (Setup)
3) Weathers (7th)
4) Vizcaino (Yuck)
5) Grilli
6) De La Rosa (Lefty specialist)
7) Mattheus?
8) Morillo?

De La Rosa has a future in the bullpen, but the Rockies will need to
add another left hander out there to be successful. Herges needs to
go as does Wells, and they’ll likely need to add another arm via
free agency.

All in all, this team is quite similar to the one we currently trot
out there, but this lineup is young once again, and with Helton
coming off the books, management should have the financial latitude
to essentially keep the core together for quite some time. Adding
two AA arms makes up for past mistakes in the pitching category and
gives the organization more time to find the next up and coming
hurlers in the system.

As much as I hate to say it, the most prudent thing for the Rockies
to do long term is to deal Matt Holliday and get solid pitching in
return. When you think about it, Ian Stewart is light years ahead
of where Holliday was at 23 years of age. If he continues to
improve at a rapid pace, we might not miss his bat as much as we
currently think.

waived Livan.

does eat innings for sure.

On the fundamental building blocks, I agree with LW33. I’m not necessarily hung up about getting younger, but we need to start moving lots of the parts more aggressively.
Much as I hate to admit it, Holliday should be traded unless the Monforts are really prepared to resign him. Compensation picks for him two years from now mean nothing.

As for starting pitching (assuming a Holliday trade doesn’t happen), we should all calm down and simply wait for next year when, hopefully, a healthy Hirsch and Reynolds can help. Trading for a 4th or 5th starter is too often a crapshoot and an invitation to give up prospects unwisely. Nevertheless, we need to start trading some of our promising guys. My own perspective is sort of limited to those who I’ve seen in Asheville, but here goes:
1) Either start Stewart or trade him. His year at Asheville was the best of any of our position players that I’ve seen, yet he seems unable to crack the Rox lineup. Make a decision here. I don’t think the FO can afford to hesitate with him for another year without severely impacting his trade value. I don’t know whether Atkins or Stewart is the answer, but decide NOW.
2) Promote Fowler. Forget the Olympics. It’s time to take a look. I wouldn’t expect too much, but any perspective the FO could get by watching him now would help in rearranging the puzzle for next year. Certainly his Tulsa numbers look impressive.
3) Put Barmes at 2nd or trade him. Unless Tulo gets hurt, he’s our shortstop, period. I honestly think Barmes could bring us some value if coupled with some others in a trade.
4) Do something similar to #3 above with Chris Nelson. I must admit to eating some crow here. During blogs last year, I loudly defended him over Hector Gomez. Though I still believe in his defensive capabilites, it looks like last year was an aberation at the plate. I hesitate waiting too much longer with him, assuming he has trade value.
5) Insert Iannetta behind the plate permanently.
6) Overhaul the bullpen. This is the one area any team has the most control over, and the Rox should admit that their “rent a heap” approach so aptly coined by others isn’t working. Gone should be Vizcaino (what a mistake!), Herges, Wells, and DLR. I know that’s a lot, but it needs to be done. We’ve got some talent at AAA and AA—promote them. All these older relievers we keep stockpiling are clogging up the system and doing us no good. Time to purge. This is one area where we need to copy Billy Beane’s playbook. Give Register, Mattheus, Weathers a chance this year.
7) Have more patience with some of the young starting pitchers. I refer specifically to Hynick and Chacin here. Though I haven’t seen Hynick pitch in person, his numbers last year were simply too good to throw him under the bus the way some at the Row have done. He’s obviously having to make some adjustments at Tulsa. No big deal. He’s young and developing. As for Chacin, a word of caution. I blogged earlier this year that he was the best pitcher we’ve had at Asheville in some time. He’s very talented. But no sooner than he gets promoted to Modesto do I read his name in same sentence with that of Cy Young!! Speculation that he’ll be in the Rox starting rotation in late ‘09. This should not/will not happen. Remember, fooling low A (now some high A) hitters with a good change is one thing, doing it on the big stage is another. Again, he is good, but we should give him time to make some mistakes in the minors. He is not overpowering. The report that said he sits in the low 90’s is simply not true. He is a high 80’s, occasional low 90’s guy who is very good at keeping young hitters offstride. It is not unusual for finesse guys to experience such success at the lower levels and then have problems up the chain. Fortunately, he’s very young and should expect to pick up more velocity over the next couple of years. Promoting him too quickly would be a disservice.
7) Fuentes/Corpas. I’m not uphappy in keeping Fuentes, as I never thought the market for him was as strong as some others did. Given Corpas’ early season stumbles, it’s too soon to give the closer role back to him. I say let the two of them do their thing this year, then see if Fuentes leaves, and make a closer decision for next year.
8) Because I’ve written off this year, most of my bullet points are with an eye to the future. We should trade a couple of key vets, promote some of our prospects now, and trade some others sooner rather than later. We’re a middle market team. Treading water by not replenishing the system is starting to kill us. Used equipment from other clubs is just that. Either resign the stars or start clearing out the deadwood with younger talent.

During the last off-season several young impact starters were traded.

The common theme in the trades involving them was that the team acquiring them gave up established big league talent.

Jair Jurrgens – he was acquired along with Gorkys Hernandez from the Tigers when the Braves traded Edgar Renteria. The Braves had a young replacement ready and capitalized on the perceived value of the veteran offensive shortstop.

Matt Garza – he was acquired by the Rays in a six player trade with the Twins that sent Delmon Young to Minnesota.

Edinson Volquez – He and pitcher Danny Herrera were traded for Josh Hamilton.

The A’s have also consistently acquired young, close to ready pitching over the last several years.

The Rockies are unable or unwilling to make similar trades but to pretend that it is impossible to acquire a premium young starting pitcher without giving up the entire farm system is inaccurate and dishonest.