Tuesday Morning Rockpile:

by Russ on Aug 12, 2008 7:56 AM MDT in Rockpile Comment 31 comments

So, the Rockies brought in Livan Hernandez in an effort to improve their chances of catching fire. It hasn't worked yet (and won't). Tonight's opponent, the D'Backs, brought in Adam Dunn last night and will get . . . I guess the Rockies will be the first to answer that question. Dunn will bat cleanup and start in right field tonight. Livan Hernandez or Adam Dunn? Dunn or Hernandez? Who's actually going to improve their new team?

I'd like to see the infield configuration mentioned in that article:

A more complicated maneuver: Dunn to left, Jackson to first, Tracy to third and Mark Reynolds to second base to take the place of the injured Orlando Hudson.

Melvin wouldn't rule out moving Reynolds to second, but added, "At this point right now, he's playing third base."

Reynolds at second would be . . . good for a laugh?

The Rockies haven't talked with Garrett Atkins or Matt Holliday about new deals recently:

With third baseman Ian Stewart gaining traction offensively, the Rockies are expected to shop Matt Holliday and Garrett Atkins over the winter. Stewart could replace either, though he has never played a major-league inning as an outfielder.

There have been no recent contract talks with Holliday or Atkins. Holliday is signed through next season, his last before free agency. Atkins was first-time arbitration eligible a year ago.

But Stew can't replace both, so possibly trading both during the off season doesn't make much sense. The tacit message in that is that Todd Helton will still be the Rockies' first baseman.

And let's close with this:

"The three-game series is an opportunity for us to get things right," manager Clint Hurdle said Sunday after the Rockies were drubbed 16-7 by San Diego. "And if it gets away from us then, we'll know where we are at the end of those three games. It could be sobering, and it could be something to hold onto and look forward."

Can the guy ever be specific? Anyway, Iet's see if the Rockies can club the Snakes this time around.

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Clint Hurdle for any Political Office 2010

He is the King of double talk and obfuscation.

by holliday5 on Aug 12, 2008 10:24 AM MDT reply actions 0 recs

We've beaten this horse several times

but Helton and his bad back and immovable contract will have to force the Rockies to move either Atkins or Holliday. And of the 4 players in the mix for playing time next year (Helton, Holliday, Atkins, and Stewart) Helton brings the least amount to the line up. Sure he’s a great fielder. Sure he’s got veteranie presence. But he can’t hit. He’s had a great career…..but that bad back is bringing it to a quick end.

I think the best line up would have Stewart at 2nd in 09 Sure he didn’t like it there, but that’s the opening we have for next year, where he could be an upgrade in the over all line up. That would give the 09 Rockies this line up:

1 Fowler CF
2 Helton – 1b
3 Holiday LF
4 Hawpe – RF
5 Atkins – 3b
6 Stewart – 2b
7 Iannetta -C
8 Tulowitzki-ss
9 Pitcher

Sure this might really mess up the 2010 line up but this is a great line up for next year.
Bench: Spilly, Seth Smith, J. Herrera, a Catcher, a body like: Baker/Barmes/Q/JoKo

And that line up looks solid to me. It doesn’t solve the anything about starting pitching. And the biggest impact trade for that would be Holliday or Atkins, which is why at least one is probably gone.

Speaking of starting pitching. I”m really looking forward to tonights match up between Jimenez and Johnson. young vs. old. Emerging Future stud ace vs. Fading stud ace but future hall of famer

Thought Clint Hurdle should be fired before it was cool.

by Redhawk on Aug 12, 2008 10:35 AM MDT reply actions 0 recs

That lineup

looks nice, though I think the lineup is very versatile going forward. I maintain Helton will never be traded, and short of retirement planning on anything but him at 1B is a waste of time. That said, the lineup does not concern me. Getting a top of the rotation starter should be the singleminded goal of the FO this offseason, and failure to do so will lead to the fellas watching the 2009 playoffs from the couch.

by Teekalong on Aug 12, 2008 10:52 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

Not just one

but 2 starting rotation guys.

Well have some trade bait. Holliday, Atkins, and the National league leader in steals (Willie T) should all bring some value. Throw in Barmes or Baker or Q for those looking for utility guys and even some of our minor league arms (Hirsh, Morales, Reynolds) and we have players to get players.

Speaking of Starting Pitchers, here’s next years Free Agents. From MLB trade Rumors
Starting pitchers
Tony Armas Jr. (31)
Kris Benson (33)
A.J. Burnett (32) – can opt out after ‘08 season
Paul Byrd (38)
Matt Clement (33)
Ryan Dempster (32)
Josh Fogg (32)
Jon Garland (29)
Tom Glavine (43)
Mike Hampton (36)
Mark Hendrickson (35)
Livan Hernandez (34)
Orlando Hernandez (43)
Jason Jennings (30)
Randy Johnson (45)
John Lackey (30) – $9MM club option for ‘09 with a $0.5MM buyout
Jon Lieber (39)
Esteban Loaiza (37)
Braden Looper (34)
Derek Lowe (36)
Greg Maddux (43)
Pedro Martinez (37)
Jamie Moyer (46)
Mark Mulder (31) – $11MM club option for ‘09 with a $1.5MM buyout
Mike Mussina (40)
Carl Pavano (33) – $13MM club option for ‘09 with a $1.95MM buyout
Brad Penny (31) – $8.75MM club option for ‘09 with a $2MM buyout
Odalis Perez (32)
Oliver Perez (27)
Andy Pettitte (37)
Mark Prior (27)
Kenny Rogers (44)
C.C. Sabathia (28)
Curt Schilling (42)
Ben Sheets (30)
John Smoltz (42) – $12MM club option for ‘09
Brett Tomko (36)
Tim Wakefield (42) – perpetual $4MM club option
Kip Wells (32)
Randy Wolf (32)

Thought Clint Hurdle should be fired before it was cool.

by Redhawk on Aug 12, 2008 11:26 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

FA pitcher ideas

What’s the likelihood of the Dodgers exercising the option on Brad Penny? I’m thinking about 110% at those dollars, but if not…

What does the Purple Row think about going after Derek Lowe at this point in his career? He strikes me as a better pitcher currently than most of that list, and he’s probably signable. He’s a damn sight better than any of the schmoes we brought in this year.

Here’s a blast from the past…why not try to get Hampton on a make-good deal? If he still has an effective sinker, pitching in post-humidor Coors Field may be doable. He’s certainly going to come cheap (though he probably has no inclination to sign here). I think he’d be a better pickup than Towers/Wells/Livan.

As much as I’ve ragged on Glendon Rusch, he’s actually pretty much gotten the job done as well or better than most #4’s out there this year. Six innings, 2-3 runs, not great peripherals, but kept us in every game.

We can always bring in Foggy as a non-roster invitee, too. I’m pretty sure he won’t take bad agent advice again.

Just some thoughts.

Watching the purple row from high atop the big brown monolith on California Ave

by Mondogarage on Aug 12, 2008 11:47 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

Pitchers

I think we need 2. I’d like to have one of the big ones (Dempster, Sheets, Sabathia) but I doubt the FO will pony up that kinda cash. And a quality scrap heap one (is that even possible?)

Penny I’d assume the Dodgers would option at that kind of money, even if it was to control him to trade him. He’d be a great fit with the Rockies though. 31 is still fairly young.

Lowe, I’ve liked. I wonder what he will be like going forward. He’s 36. That’s getting to the end.

Of the scrap heap pitchers…the one I think would be a fit, and would be cheap….Jason Jennings. Though he might only want a one year deal, to prove he’s healthy as he really wants a big money contract before it’s too late. Hampton, just can’t stay on the field. Same with Prior.

Also not on this list: Rodrigo Lopez

Thought Clint Hurdle should be fired before it was cool.

by Redhawk on Aug 12, 2008 11:59 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

Seeing Ryan Dempster as

“one of the big ones” caused me to do a double take. I’d put Sheets and Sabathia in that camp, but this is Dempster’s best season since 2001 and I would be really aghast if the Rockies put the kind of money it would take to sign him on such a risky gamble whose career ERA+ (94) was considerably lower than Byung Hyun Kim’s. Please tell me that was sarcasm.

Anyway, Lopez might be worth a flier, and even Jennings who might not even get a major league contract this time around.

by Rox Girl on Aug 12, 2008 12:09 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

On Dempster

my sight might be a little short on him I admit. He’s looked great this year though and living up to all that billing so long ago. And you are correct, because of this year, he will get FAR more than he deserves.

What do you think of Mark Mulder?

Thought Clint Hurdle should be fired before it was cool.

by Redhawk on Aug 12, 2008 12:25 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

Mulder? Not a chance

Now there’s a scrap heap pitcher. He hasn’t been healthy since 2005. Whoever signs him is going to do so as a NRO, and given that, there’s a lot of teams he’d go to before us. Before he hurt his shoulder the first time, he looked headed to at least 250-260 wins. And he’s still pretty young, but he’s currently scrap heap, at best, if not done.

Watching the purple row from high atop the big brown monolith on California Ave

by Mondogarage on Aug 12, 2008 12:38 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

If you're looking for a living up to billing candidate

Who has been far more consistent over his career, I’d love it if the Rox were seriously in on Ollie Perez. He’s got the stuff, but still not the hype despite pitching in New York. My main problem with him is that he seems to be a type of pitcher that I’m afraid our current pitching coach wouldn’t be able to get the most out of. He’s not going to get the kind of dollars of Sheets or Sabathia, but might be the best bargain among the pitchers that do get multi-year deals.

by Rox Girl on Aug 12, 2008 12:54 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

Although, never mind,

I just did a Google search and realized Scott Boras is his agent. He might not be such a bargain after all.

by Rox Girl on Aug 12, 2008 12:56 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

Dempster

Dempster’s BABIP this season is a mere .256. That’s pretty ridiculously low, is far out of line with the rest of his career (.271 last year, .312 in 2006, .310 in 2005) and suggests he’s getting lucky. For comparison’s sake, Aaron Cook’s BABIP has hovered around .300 for most of his career; Brandon Webb’s is around .285, and these are guys who you could say have significant control over what happens when the ball is put in play.

In other words, Dempster’s probably not this good.

by Tom (RFTN) on Aug 12, 2008 4:24 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

Let's say no on Hampton

I think too much burning has happened on either side of that bridge to make it safe to cross, but I like the Derek Lowe idea. If FA pitchers continue to come up as short as Lohse and a couple of others did last offseason in the amount of $$$ and years they get, and if Lowe is one of the unlucky ones, then he certainly would be a solid option.

by Rox Girl on Aug 12, 2008 12:00 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

I love the Derek Lowe idea

His stuff is equal of Cook’s, or certainly comprable, and it doesn’t seem to be deteriorating as he gets older. A three year deal would be wise, but he’ll be in demand. But that sinker would work perfectly in Coors.

by Teekalong on Aug 12, 2008 1:43 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

But that sinker would work perfectly in Coors.

I had always heard that the sinker breaks less in the thin air, making sinkerballers less effective at Coors than elsewhere?

Manny Ramirez and the Dodgers: Filling the dubious shoes left open by Barry Bonds and the Giants.

by DbacksSkins on Aug 13, 2008 1:58 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

Limited damage

Getting ground balls keeps the ball out of the air and out of the massive outfield at Coors.

EVERY pitcher (and pitch) is less effective at Coors than elsewhere.

Josh Kalk or someone similar who works with pitch f/x data had an interesting article a while back examining pitch movement and effectiveness at Coors.

by MADness on Aug 13, 2008 5:16 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

Ah, that explains it.

So sinkerballers are more effective than other pitchers at Coors but less effective than they would be at sea level. Gotcha.

Manny Ramirez and the Dodgers: Filling the dubious shoes left open by Barry Bonds and the Giants.

by DbacksSkins on Aug 13, 2008 9:14 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

Poorly worded by me

I meant his sinkerballer/groundball approach, not that his actual pitches would be more effective here.

by Teekalong on Aug 13, 2008 10:41 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

I'd put money on more "junk" in the offseason

The management will see five healthy arms in Francis, Cook, Jimenez, Morales and Hirsh. They have to think:

Francis won 17 last year. He can do it again.
Cook may win 17 this year. He can do it again.
Jimenez has put it together thus far in the second half. He has the potential for 20 wins.
Hirsh should be healthy going into next year. It will be the year that he shows his potential.
Morales had some success late last year. Surely he can find it prior to next season. If Morales can’t find the strikezone, surely Reynolds will be ready to fill that spot.

Basically, just like this past offseason, I would expect a bunch of back-up plans (e.g. Towers, Redman, Wells, etal.).

by RockyMtnRedbird on Aug 12, 2008 4:21 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

I think you're right

I hope you’re wrong

by Teekalong on Aug 12, 2008 4:30 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

I don't think they're going to be quite as sanguine

On Morales, Hirsh and Reynolds, as your scenario suggests, but I don’t think the end result will be that much different. I really think they plan on only one of the three at most stepping into the rotation in 2009 and will plan on getting insurance if that one can’t. That would be one scrapheap pitcher. Then I think they try and fill the other void with a pitcher that they seem to think is much better than a scrapheap pitcher (i.e. Wells this season, Fogg the last couple) but isn’t.

by Rox Girl on Aug 12, 2008 4:48 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

A few names pop out....

Jon Garland….Braden Looper…maybe Randy Wolf.

by BroJB on Aug 12, 2008 4:39 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

What's wrong with Baker at 2nd?

Jeff Baker has shown us two things this year:

1) He has serious extra-base pop when he makes contact.
2) He has an ability to play more than an adequate 2nd base.

Problem solved. Baker should be our regular 2nd baseman in 2008. I also think that the organization wants to sign Atkins long-term and trade away Holliday. This would leave us with the following (assuming Matt isn’t traded for any everyday position players):

1. Fowler – CF (ROY frontrunner)
2. Baker – 2B
3. Atkins – 1B
4. Hawpe – RF
5. Stewart – 3B
6. Spilborghs – LF
7. Iannetta – C
8. Tulowitzki – SS
9. Pitcher

Bench: HELTON, Smith, Q, Barmes, Catcher (hopefully not Torrealba)

That’s right. Helton becomes a $16.6 million part-timer. Unless he’s willing to take a buyout deal and seek everyday work with another team, I think the braintrust wants to go with Stew at 3B and Atkins at 1B, believing that Helton can no longer take the grind of an everyday job (his back won’t hold up). I like Smith a lot as a 4th outfielder, Spilly will be a good overall LF and remind us of Jay Payton’s career year here. Q and Barmes are versatile infield backups. And if this team is healthy, the upside of the youngsters (Fowler, Stewart, Baker) as everyday players could give us an offensive revival at Coors Field, even without Holliday in the lineup.

by GoRoxGo on Aug 12, 2008 10:51 AM MDT reply actions 0 recs

Leaving aside

logic for a moment…do you think that there is any way in the world that the owner/FO/Hurdle will ever sit Helton? I simply cannot fathom that possibility. Maybe they can buy him out or something (which I still think is unlikely) but I expect he’ll be playing 1b next year. And watching Atkins at first recently scares me to death. He’s a long way from being a good 1b, a long way. That may be the best case scenario long term, but not a comforting one. I however do agree on Baker at 2b. He’s awfully streaky, but certainly capable of being a starter at 2b. A poor man’s Jeff Kent.

by Teekalong on Aug 12, 2008 10:58 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

2 points

1) Baker is OK…but just ok. He’s streaky as hell. He has some pop, but this year he’s only batting .268 and a career .262 hitter That’s nice…it’s ok. But not quite good enough to have an impact on a team. Yeah, he has some nice pop but a dozen or so homers a year isn’t amazing. He has fielded 2nd surprisingly well, but over all…he’s just ok. I’m hoping for more than ok.

2) Helton. I understand your point. But we have Helton for 2 more years. I can’s see him sitting on the bench with his personality, and contract.. Now SHOULD he sit on the bench? probably. But sadly, the best players don’t always play. In fact big contracts tends to trump ability. I’m not saying that’s right/good, just what happens.

Atkins isn’t a 1st baseman. In fact, the more I see Atkins the more I see future DH. If Helton can’t play first, Hawpe used to be 1st baseman, is left handed, and would be my choice to move. We have Spilly and Seth Smith to play the corner OF spots. In fact if we lose Atkins and Holliday in trades, getting NO major league level position players AND Helton is hurt our line up with the worst case situation would be:

Fowler-CF
Herrara-2b
Hawpe-1b
Spilly-RF
Stewart-3b
Iannetta-C
Seth Smith-lf
Tulowitzki-SS
Pitcher.

Bench gets a lot thinner if we lose those 3.

Thought Clint Hurdle should be fired before it was cool.

by Redhawk on Aug 12, 2008 11:18 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

On Baker.....

Again, I can’t see Herrera starting at 2B over Baker. Yes, he’s streaky. No, he hasn’t hit over .260 consistently yet. However, I’ll take his power potential at 2B anyday over a light-hitting speedy guy like Herrera. I’ll also remind you that Jeff Kent didn’t hit with great consistency either…...until he was traded to the Giants. Baker is at an age where he could break out, maybe not to Kent’s level, but certainly to a level of, say, .285/.355/.530…....which is GREAT for an everyday 2nd baseman.

Atkins only looks bad at 1B in comparison to Helton, a gold-glover. He’s OK there, and will get better with more playing time. Remember that 1B was Atkins’ primary position at UCLA, and that he hasn’t played it much in recent years. He’ll improve his footwork there, and get better at digging out low throws in the dirt. Don’t move Hawpe to first since you’d lose his outfield arm. However, Hawpe is actually someone I’d consider trading in the right scenario.

Helton will accept a bench role if he believes his back won’t hold up 7 days a week. Even as a backup, he’d get 3 starts a week given how Hurdle is constantly shuffling lineups. However, if Helton still thinks he can start 150 games a year, he’d have to be told by management that such an opportunity is no longer available with the Rockies. This is the team’s leverage in getting Todd to accept a contract buyout and resurrect his career somewhere else. In the end, they’d leave the choice up to Todd.

by GoRoxGo on Aug 12, 2008 12:08 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

lineup...

What about a Spilly/Smith platoon? Spilly kills LHP and Smith is very good against RHP. That platoon has a very good chance at being outstanding with the bat—either in LF or in RF.

by DenverBears on Aug 12, 2008 11:37 AM MDT reply actions 0 recs

Depending on who stays and who goes

I suspect that would be one of the main OF options. Though I’ve seen no real love from the Rockies “Brain Trust” as it is for Seth Smith.

Thought Clint Hurdle should be fired before it was cool.

by Redhawk on Aug 12, 2008 11:42 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

Beyond all that...

I’m both excited for and dreading this series. Even if we sweep, we’re still 5 out, but it makes things more interesting. If we get swept, it is The End. I’d probably be more worked up about it if I had the energy to spare, but as it is, I’m leaving for NYC in 11 days and I have plenty of other things to worry about.
Go Rox!

by Squeaky on Aug 12, 2008 3:02 PM MDT reply actions 0 recs

I'd go beyond that still...

If we don’t win at least 2 of 3, we’re done.

And to think, if we had gone 6-1 against the Nats/Pads, a sweep would have put us a single game back. Wow.

I think we’re done anyway, and after attending four losses last week, I’ll be settling on FSN for the series. Merchandisers love me, though. Every time I go on live losing streak tilt, I assuage my soul with more gear…

Even we can sign a front line (or even legit #2) this offseason, I’ve got far more hope for next year.

Watching the purple row from high atop the big brown monolith on California Ave

by Mondogarage on Aug 12, 2008 3:47 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

Cook

will miss his next start. Strangely, I find myself hoping that he’s actually (not seriously) hurt and that this is not just some smokescreen to cover his recent poor efforts.

by Teekalong on Aug 12, 2008 5:56 PM MDT reply actions 0 recs