Thursday Morning Rockpile:
by Rox Girl on Aug 14, 2008 11:51 AM MDT
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PrintOkay, on the docket for today:
Brian Fuentes' tightrope act last night turned out successful, but I'd like a few more 1-2-3 appearances from him from here on out just to help make sure that he jumps into the free agency pool and won't be tempted to accept arbitration. I want those draft picks, dang it.
Oscar Villareal amounts to a "cellar air salvo" from the Rockies, a bunch of stale wind that doesn't amount to much impact. But I do have to admit he's got a great name for anagram generators. "Larvae sac I roll," he says.
Spilly's taking his swings now, the Rockies could use his bat for a little more right handed production besides what we're getting primarily from Holliday and Iannetta.
One of the biggest differences between 2007 and 2008 has been a big drop in production value relative to the league from most of our position players. Last year we had five of the MLB's top 60 players in terms of VORP (Matt, Todd, Tulo, Hawpe and Atkins) but so far this year just Holliday cracks that list. With a big night yesterday, Hawpe's inching closer to joining him, however. Brad currently ranks 66th, and his consistency from year to year (even though he's pretty streaky within them) bodes well for his ability to retain value over the course of the extension he signed last winter.
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One interesting note about last night's game
According to baseball-reference.com, in the ninth inning Fuentes took the Rockies from a 92% win expectancy down to 55, and then back up to 100. The top three changes in win expectancy during the game were on the last four batters he faced. Just thought that was interesting.
That’s the first time Brian has struggled with his control in a while. Maybe a little rusty? When he can’t get his breaking balls close to the plate he’s usually in trouble.
win expectancy
I’d love to “win expectancy change” incorporated as a player stat. This could be expressed as change-per-PA for hitters and change-per-IP for pitchers.
Essentially, for a hitter:
First PA: WE goes from 45% to 50: +5
2nd PA: WE goes from 53 to 49: -4
3rd PA: WE goes from 52 to 70%: +18
Average: +9/3 = 3% per PA
For pitchers:
1st inning pitched: WE goes from 15% to 9: -6
2nd inning pitched: WE goes from 6 to 0: -6
average = -12/2 = -6% per IP
Why not simply take the 15% difference and divide by 2 IP? Because the hitters contributed to a -3% drop between the first and second inning that the pitcher pitched – he should not be penalized for this (nor should he be rewarded if they score 10 runs and push the WE from 9% to 90%).
I think the data is out there, someone just needs to write a script.
This will give more weight to a guy who gets hits in truly clutch situations. Maybe one guy has a .900 OPS in RISP situations, but gets most of his hits in 9-0 wins. (Yeah, I know that there is a stat for “late and close”, but I think this would be more precise, as it would treat different late-and-close situations differently.)
Another interesting stat I researched today - not sure why.
Just discovering the pot of gold that is baseball-reference. Of Matt Holliday’s 23 homers this year, 16 have been solo shots. That is a 70% clip. I looked at the career average of a few other comps: Teixeira 44, Braun 59, Howard 47. Holliday’s career average is 51.
Just in case anyone was looking for another reason why the Rockies aren’t scoring very many runs.
I think
that says more about the guys hitting in front of him, than it says abouts Matt’s ability to drive in runs. Chances are that you’re going to hit solo shots if there usually isn’t anyone on base.
And this isn't getting better with Barmes
I plan to delve deeper into Barmes a little later, but as a leadoff hitter, this just isn’t going to be a helpful scenario for the offense, especially as we leave Coors. Barmes carries a .271 road OBP into Washington, making him an outs vacuum at the top of the order. Taveras wasn’t helping, but Barmes is even more threatening up there.
Considering that Barmes only has six steals, and a poor success rate, we aren’t valuing speed up there. Why not try Stewart up there? OBP is the name of the game, so while he still has a solid high K rate, he’s been one of the Rockies most patient hitters since returning. Spilly is still the best option, but obviously…
The Rockies have a top-of-the-order problem it has to solve next year, and though Fowler is the future up there, I don’t like putting that pressure on him out of the gate. Roberts will be the big name everyone hunts next year, but two buy low guys I like are Rickie Weeks and Kelly Johnson. Both have big walk rates and low BABIP’s. Weeks especially could be worth pursuiing. He’s improved his defense to average standards by RZR, still has some interesting speed, and Coors could jumpstart the BABIP woes of the last two years.
Weeks...
I’d love for the Rockies to get Weeks. Even when hitting badly, his OBP is solid and he has some power. My guess, however, is that he won’t be cheap—his reputation has always outpaced his performance and I bet several teams might be willing to gamble decent money on his potential.
Nonetheless, I agree—the Rockies should be one of those teams making a bid.
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