Shane Lowe: .695

This is actually a big improvement over last season. Still, not even approaching Christensen territory is a very bad sign.

Zack Murry, 21: .955;

Murry looks really good in this because the number is weighted more to contact than power, and contact is Murry’s specialty. A bigger gap forms the more you weight power (the same formula with 2x ISO, for instance), and so some separation appears between him and a few of these others. That said, I think he’s another one where the traditional batting measures are masking his real ability this season.

Alex Feinberg, 22: .939

Feinberg’s a big example of OBP mucking up the sifting process down here, because if you compared Feinberg’s OPS (.827) to Murry’s (.660), you would come to the conclusion that Feinberg was a much better prospect. I really don’t know if that’s the case. What we’d be arguing over are the 11% of PA’s where Feinberg took a free pass, but Murry mostly hit into outs. It’s clear that Feinberg’s more selective, but it’s also likely that Murry has better plate coverage and for all of Feinberg’s selectivity, his lack of XBH’s shows that he’s hardly getting as much benefit out of that selectivity as I’d like to see. In other words, he seems to be exactly the kind of player whose numbers are going to tank when he’s forced to swing at high quality strikes, whereas Murry’s, with that better plate coverage, are likely to improve as the gap power continues to develop and he learns the same kind of selectivity. Carlos Martinez is in a similar camp to Murry but with even more power emerging, albeit less contact.

Martinez: .915

Angelys Nina: .915

Eliezer Mesa, almost 20: .895

Mesa has almost a year on Cleary, two on Massey, so this figure hardly distinguishes him from his competition for outfield playing time going up the ladder. I usually give mulligans to players just entering the States for bigger cultural disadvantages, but here’s a case where I think that the player needed to hit the ground running and now already is well behind his peers.

Still, basically why I’m liking Casper despite the overall lack of offense is that for once there are several players showing well in a category I find important for early identification of sleepers, and I’m a lot more confident that we’ll have somebody (hopefully somebodies) emerge as legit MLB prospects than I was with the Clark/Cunningham/Christensen/Velazquez group, or the Cox/Ferrante/Strickland class before that (Okay, while I haven’t given up on Christensen, I admit I’m still highly skeptical that he’ll get it done).

What’s more promising for me is that with so many of these players not being our usual suspect free swingers, I’m sensing an organizational scouting shift that has seemed to have learned that sluggers do little good if they can’t consistently put wood on the ball.

It’s nice what he’s doing, and while I know this isn’t entirely his fault, I’d want to see that sort of performance at Modesto to get excited about him. Not to blame the Rockies either, though, if he’s not hitting any better than Roling or Rosario, there’s not really an imperative to advance him.

I think Houston might make the bottom of my PuRPs list, but I may very well drop Massey out as while I like the potential, I’d want to see a little more translation to performance and the defensive issues Fungoz mentions have me a little concerned that he’ll wind up needing more offense to compensate. Rosario’s D isn’t quite as big a knock right now, as blocking’s a skill that should develop with more playing/coaching time, but Massey’s got jump/range issues that might not develop so well. Same goes with Martinez, while he’s got the bonus and scouts like him, he’s also repeating at Casper, his defensive work is still incredibly raw and I see no reason to put him in. Of course, this is a weak year so he may wind up back on the list by default, but it will hardly be an endorsement.

I’m obviously a little higher on Robinson, I envision him in the 20-24 range, but he may even crack my top 20, given the system’s weakness this year. It seems like a good offseason to make bets on young toolsy players and he certainly fits that category. Plus arm, centerfield range, develping power, doesn’t strike out a lot, there’s not much to not like there. Everybody else, I think I’m seeing in the same category/range. Weatherford and David Kandilas are two wildcards that will likely make my top 30 list, but without professional performances to fill in a little more of the picture, I’ll be worried that I’ve overrated or underrated them at the same time.