Saturday Pebble Report:

by Rox Girl on Aug 23, 2008 10:56 AM MDT in Pebble Report Comment 8 comments

Colorado Springs: L 0-12

Greg Reynolds and Mark Redman's opponents decided to go negative, the the two pitchers will have you know that they will not sit back and let the Las Vegas offense beat up on them like this. No really, stop. Stop. Please stop. Come on, this isn't funny anymore. Stop...

Tulsa: L 7-8

This game actually looks a bit closer than it should have been, but some credit has to be given to Tulsa pitchers and catcher Brian Esposito for containing the damage Arkansas did once they got on board. Of course, a lot of responsibility also has to be given to those same Tulsa pitchers, particularly starter Josh Hall, for letting so many Arkansas runners on in the first place. Surprisingly, despite allowing fifteen hits and two walks over eight innings, the Drillers had a 7-6 lead heading into the ninth, Ryan Mattheus blew his fifth save of the season and allowed the last two runs for the loss, however.

Modesto: W 4-3

Esmil Rogers' first three August starts (after returning from an injury that held him out for the last half of July) were fairly ineffective, not terrible or disastrous, just short four or five inning stints where he'd give up a few runs and the burden of victory was placed mostly on the Nuts offense and bullpen. It's probably not a coincidence that the rough stretch and injury absence happened during the stretch where Modesto slid from first in the second half standings to their current third place position. Rogers' last two starts have been sharp, in each he's allowed just one run and gone six innings or more and the Nuts as a team have been rallying. It seems to me that Rogers more than other starters has been sort of a pivot point for the Nuts, which probably makes sense given his mid-rotation status. At any rate, similarly to Brandon Hynick and Anuery Rodriguez, his overall season line won't drop him far in my prospect ratings, but without a clear step forward, he's allowed other pitchers like Chacin or Connor Graham to make gains and his overall status on the depth chart and in regards to an MLB future with the Rox seems almost certain to be in the bullpen at this point. Right now I see him in this clump of players right around #20 on my list that I'll have to separate.

Two hit games for Van Kooten, Haley, Mayora and Garcia helped the Nuts score enough to hang on for the win.

Asheville: L 4-5

I've been realizing this week while making said prospect list how far my opinion of Helder Velazquez has dropped this season. While he had two hits last night and is having a solid August, this has been the first month all season that he's cracked the .300 OBP level, and that sort of out rate won't help him as pitchers get much tougher after this level. His 31st error of the season yesterday also underscores a feeling I've had watching him play that he's ultimately unsuited for shortstop, and the bat will have to take major steps forward to be useful at other positions. At his age there's still a lot of room for that to happen, but at this point he's fallen back into more of a sleeper with potential category than an actual MLB prospect for me.

Cory Riordan, on the other hand, despite five runs allowed last night, will probably be at the back end of my 30 with teammate Bruce Billings. One of these two ought to emerge as a back end of the rotation candidate down the road.

Tri-City: W 7-2

Parker Frazier continued his impressive run in the Northwest League with another strong effort. Charlie Blackmon hit his second homer of the season and the week (both have been at Yakima), and Johnny Bowden also homered in the win. Thomas Field and Erik Wetzel each had two hits.

Casper: L 1-9

Wilin Rosario singled and scored on Orlando Sandoval's double in the first, but nothing else promising came from this game. I guess Maikol Gonzalez had a pair of hits, he's a player I'm not entirely sure what to make of. The conservative estimate is an organizational player, but there has been at least a little potential shown by him this season. Matt Baugh and Ethan Hollingsworth, two pitchers who I would havee been higher on even earlier this week stumbled pretty badly against Orem. Hollingsworth may be this season's draft disappointment relative to the round he was picked.

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Hollingsworth

He’s the Rockies’ typical low-ceiling college RHP that will be nothing more than an organizational player. If we had a shortage of arms in the organization, I’d understand selecting that type of player in the 4th and hoping he can move fairly quickly. But we’ve already got 7 or 8 A-ball pitchers and 3 or 4 in short-season ball that are as good/better than Hollingsworth. It just seems like a wasted pick to me.

by mattrob on Aug 23, 2008 11:29 AM MDT reply actions 0 recs

I thought so at the time as well

and now he is already looking like a flop. With most players, you can throw out their numbers in short season out of college, but this is exactly the type of player that should be dominating. Guys with poise, polish, and command should be working circles around their raw, younger counterparts, and Hollingsworth is getting hit hard.

by David OhNo on Aug 23, 2008 1:32 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

A similar gamble paid off with Riordan

For the most part, but Riordan came a couple of rounds later, too. I wonder if it was just a lack of depth or quality in college pitchers this year, but it seems more likely just a misfire with a strategy that the team was having mild success with before this point. I guess the good news is that Houston’s performance is making up for it to some degree.

by Rox Girl on Aug 23, 2008 2:13 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

Depth vs upside

Now that the Rockies have developed such organizational depth (which is an important thing to have) I would really like to see them shift thier focus (especially in the top 5 rounds of the draft) to players who have the potential to have an impact at the big league level – even if they are higher risk prospects.

by MADness on Aug 23, 2008 1:02 PM MDT reply actions 0 recs

Agreed

There’s just a lack of top-end talent in the system and it’s time the Rockies get a little more aggressive in filling that void. This year they did take a few chances with Dominguez, Massey, Burns, and Cleary, but could only get 2 signed (I still like the strategy). Players like Hollingsworth can (and should) be drafted later, but the 4th is just too early when there are a number of higher-upside players available.

by mattrob on Aug 24, 2008 11:22 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

Don't be too hasty

Not to disagree but you need to look a little closer at some of the stats. The two pitchers at Casper that have the lowest ground ball ratio are Hollingsworth and Duarte. They also have the highest ERA. In his last start Hollingsworth had 13 ground balls with 3 fly balls including 2 popups to the infield Duarte had similar numbers. In his last 2 starts Hollingsworth has give up 5 earned runs in 2 innings with no balls leaving the infield. Remember rookie league is just that. Ground balls that are now base hits will be outs and the next levels. I agree about Houston. He looks strong at this point. May be a good 7th round pick.

by rocker on Aug 23, 2008 7:58 PM MDT reply actions 0 recs

And it’s not all performance this year that I’m concerned with (although it doesn’t help). It’s more the profile of a college RHP who has limited upside. Even if he is benefited by better defense at higher levels, I don’t see him passing up the host of #4-5 starter types already in the system. Hollingsworth wasn’t the BPA at that point, and also wasn’t drafted as a fast-mover to fill an organizational need. Given that, I just don’t know that I see the reasoning behind the pick.

by mattrob on Aug 24, 2008 11:29 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs