Saturday Rockpile:
by Rox Girl on Aug 23, 2008 3:00 PM MDT
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PrintWoot!!! No traffic Saturday!!! Time to break out with the esoteric pointy-head intellectual numbers that would normally drive off my base!
Alright, some food for thought: Ian Stewart currently has a higher VORP (18.4) in 191 PA's at third base than any other third baseman in the division, including what Garrett Atkins gave the team in 539 PA's at third (16.6). Stewart's EQA of .317 is .020 points higher than the .297 EQA his 90th percentile projection saw him have at the most optimistic reach for this season. So correct me if I'm wrong, but there are a couple of conclusions we can draw from this:
1. Stewart is a much better player than the numbers were thinking he'd be
AND
2. Stewart is incredibly lucky this season and is destined for a Tulo-esque nosedive in 2009.
I think it should probably be pretty clear at this point that it's a combination of the two and not an either/or proposition, but the question is where in that spectrum he's actually at, and how far will he come to earth in 2009?
Other notes: Braves sign Rodrigo to minor league contract with 2009 option. This actually bums me out. I'd much ratehr suffer through Rodrigo's rehab right now than Livan's denouement.
Could Holliday go to the Phils this winter after a Howard trade? We haven't seen the media trying to devalue Holliday yet, as this Rosenthal article implies a healthy multi-player haul still, which is good even if the particular trade premise proposed is a little too complicated and needs too much to fall in line to be considered realistic at this point. I wouldn't take specific rumors seriously until after Thanksgiving, but do keep an eye on the basic parameters being mentioned.
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SEEN STEW SINCE ASHEVILLE AND HE'S ........
the “real deal”….I predict (unbelieveable that it may be) that he will some day lead the NL in triples (yes triples). He smokes the ball and leaves the box on the 1st step as aggressively as anybody in the league. His defense is spectacular although youthfully eratic (consistancy will come with age). Should I worry about my name "91 wins in ’08? Rox have 71 losses.
JUST NEED 32 IN A ROW.......
the record is 26. Could be tight.
by 91 wins in 08 on Aug 23, 2008 6:13 PM MDT up reply actions
Trading Holliday
I mean, seriously, it seems outside Colorado, a lot of people(majority) think Matt Holliday is some above average hitter who can’t do anything outside of Colorado.
I really hope the front office doesn’t succomb to the offers and give him up for practically nothing.
As for Stewart, I’m skeptical after seeing what Tulo is doing this year. The real question in my mind, is what do we do with Helton and/or Atkins?
We can do nothing with Helton...
That’s a non-starter, as the only way he’d get moved would be in an exchange of bad contracts, and once you start asking yourself whose bad contract you’d rather have (Gary Matthews Jr.? Barry Zito?) over Todd, you see that there’s not much upside to moving him there. I’d rather just pay him a lot but use him much more selectively. Atkins could be a draw this winter, though.
Don’t listen to Internet fan chatter about Holliday, as it won’t be reflective of what baseball insiders see. That’s why I look at media pieces like the Rosenthal article as telling. That note indicates that execs see Holliday as more valuable than anybody the Phillies currently have to offer, and they’d have to move Howard before having enough to pursue him, not something you’d see if baseball people really thought he was a Coors only hitter.
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