My kingdom for six games

by Roberbola on Aug 27, 2008 1:16 PM MDT

The fact that we are six games back on August 27th got me thinking about all the failure we saw from the team in the first half of the year, and how different this season would feel now if we could have turned those losses into wins. I spent lunch perusing through baseball-reference.com, trying to pinpoint the six games that we should have won during the first half that would put us in a tie with Arizona.

I didn't even get through April and I had already found the six - - - all played within the span of 8 days.

Game #18 4/20/08 - HOU 6, COL 4

The Rockies are on a four game winning streak (which included the 22 inning win in San Diego) and actually have a winning record at 9-8, bouncing back after a rough start to the season. The Rockies lead by 1 going to the bottom of the eighth. While the Rockies are still laboring through the Jason Nix experiment, Kaz Matsui singles two home against Brian Fuentes, increasing the Astros win probability by a whopping 52%. The Rockies manage to get the tying runners on base in the top of the ninth against Valverde, but Atkins flies out to deep center to end the game.

Game #19 4/21/08 - PHI 9, COL 5

So how can a game won by 4 runs be so bad? When the winning team scores 5 runs in the last two innings. With Fuentes having blown a lead just the day before, Taylor Buchholz is the culprit this time, giving up a 2 run double to Carlos Ruiz (who?) with two outs in the eighth. Micah Bowie proceeds to come in and add some gasoline, giving up three more in the ninth.

Game #20 4/22/08 - PHI 8, COL 6

When you thought it couldn't get any worse, the Rockies light up Brett Myers for 6 runs, and Francis goes 7 innings. Holliday and Atkins hit homers to give the Rockies a 1 run lead going to the ninth. In comes Corpas, who goes single, K, single, IBB, 3 run double to Pat Burrell, increasing the Phillies win probability by 48%. If you are counting that is now 3 blown leads in a row.

Game #21 4/23/08 - CHC 7, COL 6 (10)

In roll the Cubs having won 15 of their first 21 games and 6 straight. The Rockies put up a 5 spot in the 6th to take the lead against Rich Hill, et al, while Morales holds down the fort giving up 3 runs in 6 innings. Again, top of the ninth with a one run lead, Aramis Ramirez hits a two run bomb off Corpas to take the lead. Spilborghs triples home Podsednik in the bottom of the ninth against Kerry Wood to tie it, but enter Kip Wells in the 10th. The Cubs manufacture a run, and Marmol sets the Rockies down in order in the 10th. 4 blown leads in a row.

Game #23 4/25/08 - COL 7, LAD 8 (13)

The Rockies are still 10-12 at this point in the season, and are coming off a nice win against the Cubs behind 4 hits in 8 innings from emerging ace Aaron Cook. Ubaldo goes nuclear early, giving up six runs in 2 and 1/3 innings. The bully keeps it together, allowing only one more earned run the rest of the game and the Rockies claw back to within one run by the ninth inning. With Saito pitching, the spirit of 2007 must have still been lingering. Spilborghs and Podsednik promptly get on base with a walk and a double respectively. A passed ball ties the game and Helton is intentionally walked to set up the double play with one out. In steps Big Daddy himself with a chance to stop this nonsense. With Podsednik at third, even a medium-depth fly ball scores a run. Instead, of course, the Dodgers strategy works perfectly and a 4-3 double play ends the inning. The Dodgers finally score in the 13th when Kemp reaches on a Garrett Atkins error and scores on a Russell Martin sacrifice fly.

Game #24 4/27/08 - COL 2, LAD 3 (10)

On the surface nothing too much to complain about, good pitching from both Francis, Loaiza and both bullpens keep the game close. Closer inspection reveals the deep flaw that would plague the Rockies all year: Hitting with RISP. With the game tied the Rockies put 2 men on in the 8th, 9th and 10th only to score no runs. In the bottom of the 10th Corpas walks the first two batters and game over thanks to a James Loney single.

So within the space of one week in April, the Rockies lost 6 games that they had every right to win. Now that they are 6 games back, it just makes you wonder what if...

Eat. Drink. Be Merry. But the above FanPost does not necessarily reflect the attitudes, opinions, or views of Purple Row's staff.

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Obvious complaint

6 more Rockies wins does not put them into a tie with AZ. You would need 6 AZ losses, as well.

I understand what you’re trying to accomplish, but saying six disheartening losses makes the difference is not accurate.

A season of disappointing performances is really more to blame for the Rockies current standing.

by RockyMtnRedbird on Aug 27, 2008 1:48 PM MDT 0 recs

Umm, am I mising something?

With six more wins and the corresponding six fewer losses, the Rockies record would be 69-65, which would put them in a virtual tie with the Diamondbacks.

by Roberbola on Aug 27, 2008 2:40 PM MDT up 0 recs

I apologize. You are clearly right on the six game swing.

This time of year, I get stuck in forward-thinking mode.

But let me clarify my stance on the six April losses. While now I agree they would have changed the standings, the actual results should of foreshadowed for all us fans what type of team we would be dealing with the remainder of the season, including mediocre fill-in bullpen arms and an offense which has problems getting the timely hits (or even sac flys when they’d work just as good).

I’m still holding out hope that they find a way to make up the current 6 game disadvantage, but at this late in the game, they will need much more of a miracle than last year’s run.

by RockyMtnRedbird on Aug 27, 2008 3:27 PM MDT up 0 recs

Totally agree

I certainly picked out a stretch where the Rockies were particularly lousy in high-leverage situations, but the failure generally didn’t come from the fringe guys, but from the bullpen core (Fuentes, Corpas, Buchholz) and middle of the order (Holliday, Tulo, Atkins). That’s the part I am lamenting in my post.

The bottom line is that the Rockies have been outscored this season by 53 runs, and are actually 1 win better than their pythag. Their record in 1-run games is actually 4 games over .500. Simply put, they played really, really poorly for three months and the hole they dug was just too deep.

What I just can’t put my finger on is this: Are the 2008 Rockies a bad team, a mediocre team, or a good team? I really, really can’t figure it out.

by Roberbola on Aug 27, 2008 4:22 PM MDT up 0 recs

My take on the "team"

I still have this sense that the Rockies are a bunch of very good young hitters and a handful of talented young pitchers. However, I get this feeling that too often, they are more interested in playing for themselves. I just don’t see the “team”, especially in the offense. I see the young hitters trying to do too much (swing for the fences), when just a little will do (a groundball to the right side). I see lapses in concentration and judgement. I don’t know, maybe it’s just the question marks flowing around the players this year. Does Fast Willy hear those footsteps from Fowler behind him? Are Holliday and Atkins wondering if they’ll be on the team by New Year’s day and at the same time thinking about how they’ll spend their paychecks? Did Tulo let the money go to his head (how does the Mazeratti drive, anyway)? Where is the vocal leader that he was last year? Regardless of the question marks, I just don’t see any leadership trying to be the calming influence, on the field or in the dugout. I’ve said it before, and I’ll say it again, I just don’t think the coaching staff is the right group to calm the mental storm that can swirl around a group of talented, young players. It’s like they’ve totally forgotten that it was the team’s success last year that allowed for more money to be spread around in the offseason.

For them to make a run, they have to get back to being the “team” that they were down the stretch last year. Unfortunately, I just don’t see it happening especially with Hurdle and Co sitting on their hands in the dugout.

by RockyMtnRedbird on Aug 28, 2008 8:43 AM MDT up 0 recs

Not exactly needing last year

The Rox need consistent hotness, but they don’t need to win 14 of 15. Two out of every three should do it, as bad as Arizona is looking (and they still have seven games against the Cards, tougher than anything the Rox will face.)

I’m not convinced Arizona will play .500 the rest of the year.

But our position relative to a playoff spot isn’t really any worse than it was with 28 games left to play last season, if you substitute division title as a target instead of wild card.

I know the Rox need to go 20-8 if Arizona goes 15-15 (now 15-14), but if AZ goes 13-17, then 18-10 does it, and so forth. And while the D’backs starting pitching is still pitching well, for the most part, that’s about the only aspect of the game going right for them these days, and a 13-17 finish seems eminently possible for them.

Watching the purple row from high atop the big brown monolith on California Ave

by Mondogarage on Aug 27, 2008 4:45 PM MDT up 0 recs

Especially given how luck works in pennant chases

Where there isn’t the breadth of competition you have in a full season schedule. It would only take the D-backs having an out of proportion failure to match up against a single team (the Cardinals or Dodgers or Rockies all could apply) to throw their expected win percentage for the rest of the season way off track. This is a big, overlooked part of our comeback last season in relation to both the Dodgers and Padres, where the team was peaking at the precise time specifically relative to those two clubs. Frankly, it’s an overlooked aspect of our early season performance too, where the team was at a low against Arizona, while they were clearly at a peak vs us. A full of reversal of that late shouldn’t be expected (judging from our last encounter, our waves are more or less in the same vicinity right now) but obviously if it does it would make a comeback a lot easier.

Team performance really isn’t linear, and if the timing of the crests and valleys of a team’s wave match up well with the opponents, a lot of good happen as long as the overall trajectory is positive which it has been for the last month and a half.

by Rox Girl on Aug 27, 2008 5:26 PM MDT up 0 recs