All my Eckses
by Rox Girl on Aug 28, 2008 3:42 PM MDT
in Transactions & Rumors
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Print2009 Needs:
1 starting pitcher.
I find the argument that says we need to pick up two boils down to "We need one starter to replace Livan Hernandez because he's bad, and one to replace Jorge De La Rosa because he used to be bad." It's right on the first count, but fairly ridiculous on the second, as the same standard could be applied to the start of just about any pitcher's career to disqualify them from contention. The argument that "JDLR walks too many," is more valid, but if the Rockies are going to invest as much as they should in a starter to replace Livan, whatever any leftover funds (should there be any) are going to turn up isn't going to be pretty. One good, reliable pitcher should be all we need.
1 second baseman
1 lead-off hitter
There could be one answer to both these questions, and that would probably be the preference at this point. Our best on base percentage from a second baseman in 2008 is Clint Barmes at .321. Next best is Jeff Baker at .319. Either way making outs 68% of the time is a pretty terrible rate for somebody who will likely have to hit near the top of the order next season. Dexter Fowler, if he is to take over center (and he should) should be buried in a low pressure slot. Troy Tulowitzki, who needs to regain his confidence and form should probably bat seventh at least to start the season. So what's a solution?
I say move OBP machine Chris Iannetta up to the second slot. While not a true leadoff hitter, he's got decent wheels, and you'll be able to keep the more legitimate power threat of Ian Stewart lower in the order. This is why finding a second baseman that would be comfortable batting leadoff should be a top priority for the offseason. So let's talk about some options:
Internal -
Baker
Barmes
Quintanilla
Nix
Herrera
Wimberly
Young
Nelson
For convenience, I've crossed out a few that have seemingly proved unlikely to produce at the level we'd want in MLB play. Herrera might be able to sneak back into that conversation, but I wouldn't hold my breath. Wimberly doesn't feel likely to me either, but he has had a .358 OBP at Tulsa this season, which wouldn't be bad if we could somehow wave a magic wand and translate directly to the MLB without any loss. Unfortunately, the bump up two levels hurts enough that according to Baseball Prospectus' translated stats, that figure would have been .292 with the Rockies this season. Yuck.
Nelson? After a rough start to his year in Tulsa and a broken hamate bone his bat is finally heating up, but even with that his Tulsa numbers are so woeful that it leaves little confidence that he'll be ready for MLB play in 2009.
That brings us to Eric Young Jr, whose OBP numbers actually translate to be better than Barmes or Baker's right now (.330) and who should be capable of getting better as his own stroke returns from a broken hand this season. Add in prodigious speed and him taking on a role his father once held for the team both in the lineup and on the field becomes a very distinct possibility. But Rox Girl, you say, if we're not willing to put Fowler in the pressure of the lead-off slot right out of the minors, why would you put Young there? Let me just put this bluntly: because organizationally, Fowler's more important to protect. Without a high ceiling, players like Young, like Jayson Nix, like Ryan Spilborghs, actually, and like so many others they become the infantry of our system. If they succeed, they become heroes, if they fail, goats, but they aren't going to be afforded the same nurturing patience we afford the potential stars.
Like Nix last season, however, Young would be a crude, relatively unknown tool we'd be asking to fill a skilled and delicate task. I would think he would be an alternative of last resort, as a Plan B to hopefully rise and supplant the Barmes/Baker/Quintanilla trio we have sputtering along right now.
So if we can't find an inside man, where do we turn?
Trade:
Brian Roberts - I'm not even sure how this would be possible, but for whatever reason, his name keeps on getting brought up on the Row. We have a need, so naturally we'll look at the best possible way to fill that need. Given what Seattle wound up giving up for Erik Bedard, and adding other moves the Orioles have made recently, it would likely be too painful for a prospect only trade. The only way I could see it working, given that we are the "buyers" would be if we offered Atkins for him straight up (they'd get two years of controlled service, we'd get one) and saw where it went from there.
I'm aware Atkins alone probably wouldn't get it done, and I imagine if we got to a point where the deal was Atkins plus Gomez or Nelson for Roberts, I'd pull the trigger, but I doubt O'Dowd would. What's more, I doubt that would still be enough to encourage the Orioles to make a trade, and where would we go from there? Chacin? Fowler? Dealbreakers. I just can't see how this one works out.
Are there other guys available via trade? The Cubs seem to have a lot of middle infielders, I guess that would be some place to look.
Free Agency:
Orlando Hudson - Ha! Right. But no if we could afford it, great, like Roberts, it's just not going to happen
David Eckstein - Don't laugh, but Eckstein is a reasonable alternative. He signed a one year deal for Toronto worth $4.5 million. He's had an OBP over .350 for each of the last four seasons and at Coors Field that would play up. Limited to 72 games this season due to injury and 34 years old, his value should be deflated. He'd be a quality defender at second and has plenty of leadoff experience and veteraniness for our guy Hurdle. Really, I think this is an acceptable compromise for me between the All-Star we all want and the peg-legged minor league invite we're probably going to get.
This would make my semi realistic 2009 April starting lineup look like:
- David Eckstein, 2B
- Chris Iannetta, C
- Ian Stewart, 3B
- Matt Holliday, LF
- Brad Hawpe, 1B
- Ryan Spilborghs, RF
- Troy Tulowitzki, SS
- Dexter Fowler, CF
- Ubaldo Jimenez, P
I think I'd be just fine with taking that in this division.
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So Atkins gets traded
for prospects and Helton is hosting Saturday morning outdoor tv shows next year?
Second half run?
Atkins
Maybe he’s traded for prospects, or preferably he’s traded with a prospect or two for our pitcher.
Helton, and again this is if I had my druthers and not based on what I think will actually happen, would be a veteran presence, big left handed and extremely expensive bat off the bench. I just think that alignment is the best way to utilize our talent.
I'd be happy with that
That’d leave a rotation of Jimenez, Cook, Francis, JDLR, and whoever Atkins was traded for. Corpas, Bucholtz, Grilli, and possibly Weathers form a solid BP core. We’d really only need a veteran lefty or two out of the pen and possibly a bat off the bench to be solid throughout.
I also like the fact we’d have a pretty good group at Colorado Springs to develop for 2010. Hynick, Reynolds, Morales, Hirsh (could be a trade candidate), Morillo, Young, and Nelson all have big-league futures, imo.
why not just have Spilly leadoff
i’d imagine he’d be able to have around a .360 OBP from the leadoff. why not hit him first then keep barmes/baker at 2B batting 7th or 8th? save the money they would spend on the 2B and use it on pitching
I've got one main issue with this
First, it weakens the offense from the Rox Girl Plan, and the value added to your once every five day pitcher won’t get you the same kind of bang for your buck that spending on a decent everyday player who can perform outside of Coors Field as well as inside it can.
Eckstein's a weaker Barmes
his only positive to Clint comes in a little bump in OBP. Granted, Barmes has some serious splits, but part of that just comes with the territory. What we have instead, is EQA numbers, which account for park effects. Eckstein’s put up a number of .261, begat from a line of .274/.353/.357 this year. That’s probably a reasonable expectation for Eckstein, one we could assume he duplicates next season. That still puts him right near Barmes’ season number of .259 EQA.
Now I’m certain that Barmes is performing beyond his real capabilities, but whether he is or not isn’t the point at the moment. The point is: Barmes’ .259 EQA is deemed unacceptable at this point, thus, getting something similar next year would still be considered unacceptable.
Eckstein offers little upside to over shoot those numbers. Now I know EQA isn’t OBP, which is what we are looking for in our leadoff, but I think it’s dangerous to only look in the OBP department, as if that comes with a weaker hitter, you are more likely to bust on your gamble than you are with someone with a well rounded offensive approach.
Thus, if we rule out Eckstein, and we rule out Roberts for numerous reasons, where do we turn? Some suggestions:
Jason Donald- Now here we go back to the prospect gamble, but you can hedge your bet a little with Donald’s polish. Jason has besting Young’s numbers in AA, hitting .303/.383/.501 in Reading. Donald brings more tools to the table, offering more power with decent plate discipline, and he has a shortstop’s background with a second baseman’s build. Donald, I’d imagine could be attainable in an Atkins trade with Philly, as Garrett fills a large hole at third for Philly, while the Rockies could possibly land Donald and a pitching prospect for him.
Alexi Casilla- May not appear as attractive as the others, but Casilla has thus far turned in a .275 EQA this season, and has added some doubles power this year. Doubles power + minor league walk rates project better down the line as a leadoff type than a skills set similar to Willy. He’s been compared to Luis Castillo his entire “prospect career” and it looks like it still sticks. In his prime, Castillo was the type of leadoff hitter we could use now. I think Casilla could be had in an Atkins trade as well, with the Rockies not taking back a big league pitcher, and instead accepting a pitching prospect (Swarzak maybe? Too much?) I would probably be fine with a Casilla-Mulvey for Atkins package, with the possibility of the Rockies adding one of our AAAA guys.
That's a little disingenuous
To say Eckstein’s a weaker Barmes. Barmes’ career EQA is .233, while Eckstein’s is .261, if you look at Clint’s last three months, he’s been hitting a lot closer to that career figure, and it seems likely that he will continue at this rate going forward. Eckstein’s been consistent, year after year hitting just over .260. He’ll undoubtedly decline at some point due to age, but the real gap between these two is a lot bigger than the single year numbers would indicate. Plus it’s not just that Barmes has been bad on the road, he’s been simply unacceptable for a competitive team. We’re going to take a hit away from Coors, but we just can’t afford a .227/.259/.305 line from a regular and expect to win on a consistent basis.
Now, as for your other two choices, I like the prospect hedge with Donald. It strengthens the system and gives us a somewhat better young option there, but like you I see the issues of hoping/ expecting that one of a couple of kids steps up and wind up having neither, which would leave us right back at square one. While there would be less risk with a pair of choices, that risk could still come back and bite us, which probably won’t be good with O’Dowd needing to show that 2007 was no fluke.
I hadn’t really considered Casilla, but I don’t really know if he’s that good of an option considering the costs you’re saying are involved in acquiring him. I haven’t checked his RZR, but I had heard he was kind of a lazy defender in the minors. I don’t see the minors walk rate as that strong, in fact he’s never had an ISO over .100 until this season, which leaves me doubting how real the doubles spike is. I really don’t know if he’s a better option than either EY2 or Donald
Casilla's doing it now
where Young is only doing it in Double A. That takes the jump out the the equation.
When we talk about Young, we do realize he’s hardly acceptable defensively right? He’s got a set of hands that rarely field a ball cleanly, and like Wimberly, his throwing isn’t clean and can lead to errant throws or tough stretches/digs for first. I don’t like any scenario where Young is considered a solid candidate for the role.
By weaker Barmes, I was suggesting that Eckstein lacks the oomph of Barmes, contact-wise. I didn’t carry my point over well, but it goes back to hedging your bet on a guy with flimsy offensive tools. Speaking of Barmes, I wouldn’t rule him out as trade fodder, as not all teams pay as much attention to BABIP, splits, etc. as the rest of us and will see a solid rebound (unfortunately, I think we’re one of those teams that believe in the rebound and will likely deem Barmes an unmovable commodity).
And don't forget
Over 1/3 of Barmesy’s career ABs came in a miserable season where he was a) recovering his form after the fall and b) should have been in the minors. I know we have to work with the whole package of numbers, but a catastrophic injury is difficult to ignore. His line this season is probably a realistic expectation of the next few years. He’s also younger than Eckstein. Eckstein had fielding percentages of .960 this season and last (down 18 points from his career average). Some of that would be off-set by moving to second, but yikes. The guy is getting older, took a combined 48 walks in the last two years, and can’t play SS anymore. And if the Rockies sign Eckstein for his experience (read: lucky enough to have been on two extremely talented World Series championship team), they might as well sign Cliff Floyd to replace Matt Holliday (if traded, please no).
What is Aaron Miles’s contract status? I’d have him back any day before Eckstein.
Johnson
What about trading for Kelly Johnson? He’d be way cheaper than Roberts and the Braves are supposed to be selling everybody but Chipper, McCann and Escobar. He’s much more a long-term solution than even Roberts (who is 5 years older).
Way cheaper than Roberts?
Wren’s been pretty shrewd with trades thus far, from Renteria to Teixeira, so I don’t know if I see acquiring Johnson as cheap, but he’d certainly be a quality option if he was. I’d guess that would cost Chacin plus, though.
Teixera Deal Not Great
I know we’re two days past this, but I’ve been driving most of the time and not near a computer. The Braves got a guy that at best will be a poor man’s Kevin Youkilis (still nothing to scoff at) and something similar to Craig Hansen (very Red Sox-centric) for Teixeira. I don’t think that’s a great haul, even if the guy is set to sign for $22M/year this winter. And it’s definitely not a great haul considering the prospects that went to Texas for Texeira. With the state of the Braves pitching, it probably wouldn’t be stretch to get Johnson for Chacin or Morales and nothing else.
You certainly make a good counterpoint to the post by mentioning Eckstein’s recent injuries. Given that he isn’t much bigger than the picture below, his body could be done. And he had 434 ABs and 24 BB last year. Not good for anyone. Terrible for a leadoff hitter. At 35 with a bad back is he going to be able to continue to scrape out infield hits?
Two years of Miles would be better than most, and certainly better than Eck, as Nelson might be ready in ‘10 and the comparably low cost of Miles wouldn’t mean that he has to play everyday as that season goes on.
Obviously Miles isn’t ideal, but I’m just saying there are options that don’t involve bringing in a broken-down 34 year old with declining fielding percentages (yes, 2B he’d be better but how much) is the equivalent of bringing in Desi Relaford in ‘05 – part-time player, part-time usefulness. Ok, looking at Miles’s numbers, he wouldn’t be much better. If Kaz – mentioned below – was a free agent, it’d be different. But what do you trade for a guy with anal fissures? Maybe if we fleeced the Astros we can do it again…
Sorry to beat a dead horse.
Yikes...
Remind me not to put you in charge, but Miles is also available. Counting raw walk totals doesn’t mean anything because Eckstein hasn’t played much in the last couple of years, and here’s where you should really hammer your point. He is old and that honestly could be a problem, however it does have some advantages. He’s got old player skills, and should be decent at second as a stop gap. Because of his age and injury history the last two seasons he’s not going to get a three year contract or even a two year contract, while Miles might. I absolutely do not want to get stuck with a player at this position that we can’t back out of unless they really are star quality or at least very good.
Still not sold on Casilla,
I keep on looking at his season and see just as much reason if not more to believe that this is an early peak and out of characteristic spike as it is a breakthrough season for him, and if that’s the case, we’d be buying high and selling low and I’d have nightmares of Jose Ortiz all over again.
As with Eckstein, in no way do I see Young as a permanent solution, and the defense is a big part of that reason. I just don’t believe Casilla is that much, if any bit of a better option.
Trading Barmes probably would serve the club well, I hope it would serve Barmes well, but like you, I think we just like him too much to see it happening.
Fall League
Just noticed on the team’s official page that EY Jr. is going to the fall league as a CF? Also Casey Weathers will also be sent – will this have any bearing on his being called up in September? Interested to see your thoughts.
Weathers likely won't be called
Bill Geivett indicated while he was in Beijing that they’re looking at next year, possibly even out of Spring Training.
Who would we get more for?
Atkins or Spilborghs?
I could see moving Spilborghs (If we can get a good amount for him; which I doubt), for a good P.
That way we could put Atkins at 1B, Hawpe at RF and Stew at 3B.
Or we could hope that Stewart gets really good at 2B :P
Die-hard Rockies fan. On the bandwagon since 7/6/93. Not giving up my seat. EVER!
by rockiesfan4ever on Aug 28, 2008 7:45 PM MDT reply actions
Probably Atkins
when you consider the teams needing a third baseman are more batting average oriented teams.
I wouldn’t want to move Spilborghs. He gives you a lot of bang for your buck and will be Holliday’s replacement.
In all honesty, I don’t see why you would come out of this off-season with either one of Holliday or Atkins still on the roster. It would be a misuse of resources.
Reality check
You expect this organization to brilliantly (or even intelligently and daringly) use its resources?
Atkins or Holliday
Do you mean Atkins OR Holliday should be gone or both should be gone in your opinion?
I definitely think Atkins should be traded to get back some value in areas where we have greater needs. However, I think they will keep Holliday through the off-season, unless someone clears out their cupboard for him. With Holliday in the lineup, it gives the Rox the best chance for a run in ’09. They can decide by the trading deadline if they are in the playoff picture ( I know the FO indecision at the trade deadline this year does not provide comfort that they will do better next year, but we can hope, right?) I think the Rox could be realistic contenders in the NL West next year w/ Holliday in the line up and a few other tweaks. Ya gotta take your chances when you have them. If Atkins and Holliday are moved, then we are looking at a longer term rebuild or perpetually hoping for miracles with young kids, in my opinion.
I agree.
What’s more, I don’t like how the two seem to get clumped together so often when the Rockies offseason plans are discussed. Atkins is an okay player who probably will be above average for another year or two, while Holliday is a legitimate star. Trading Atkins won’t affect the team much because of Stewart, while trading Holliday weakens the Rockies severely and we’d need to hope for a great burst in development from Tulo and Fowler if we wanted to make up for it. There are some times where that sort of play might be called for (strong division, weak farm) but given the state of the division (weak) and our farm system (so-so, but not weak) I think right now it would be an unnecessary gamble to trade Matt unless it was a clearly advantageous return we were getting.
The picture above is classic
But let me throw out another option. A guy that as we all remember, I was very fond of last year. And what’s better, he’s playing on a team who’s management are noted idiots…
Kaz. Because let’s face it, we miss him. Granted, if Brian Roberts were available, let’s get him, but he won’t be. Is Kaz available… Well that’s where we would have to prey on the daring and genius of our front office, at least in regards to the interesting tactics shown by the Astros.
Now beyond hyperbole, Kaz could help. He played a fine 2B, he hit leadoff, provided a ton of speed and energy to the lineup, and I know it’s not measurable, but he just had that knack for the big moment. I would love to see him back in black.
Is it gonna happen? Probably not. If it does, I’m definitely buying some MLB.tv action out here.
You know you want to check out Matt's Korea blog: http://koreamatt.wordpress.com
Interesting
Love your analysis! Here’s a few tweaks I’d make to the Rox Girl formula:
1) Try really hard to make Lowe that one new starting pitcher. He’ll eat up innings at a minimum while JDLR and the rest of the youngsters battle to decide who will pitch the 5th day.
2) I’m going to assume Helton will play 80 games next year at which point I look at the 1B/RF situation as some weird round robin platoon of Helton/Hawpe/Spilly/Smith through out the year.
3) You hit the nail on the head about 2B/lead-off, and I’m one of those that sees Roberts as the preferred answer. It’s rare that I ever call for a trade that would weaken the team long-term for a short-term fix…. But IF he’s available….. this is the right guy at the right time. That said, the name Fowler should not even be mentioned in such a deal and if at all possible Atkins should be the guy that is used to get it done. Even if it’s a three way deal where we ship Atkins for prospects and then send them along with a B prospect (ie: Nelson) of our own plus Baker for Roberts.
4) I still get a kick out of seeing Wily T batting second. I know his OBP is horrible this year, and having somebody ahead of him on the bases sort of takes away his running game….. But it’s funny to watch him lay down a sacrifice bunt and then beat it out. To me that threat goes beyond the stats and is one of those things that can demoralize the other team and turn the momentum of the game. It’d be all the more effective if the guy leading off could steal some bases and hold the 1B closer. For this reason, I think Fowler opens the season at AAA and Wily T sticks around after he comes up in July to back him up should he falter. Plus he’d then be available to play some late inning shananigans on the basebaths in the Post-season.
Hmmm...
From my perspective, I’d almost rather see the Rockies trade Hawpe than Atkins. We have more OF’s than we do IF’s IMO.
And when has Hawpe ever played 1B?
I think we definitely need to explore trading someone though for a solid SP. I’m thinking of a #‘2/#3 guy. One team that may be interested in exploring is the Braves. Tim Hudson could be a possibility to be traded I’m thinking. Maybe Gavin Floyd in Chicago might be worth looking at.
I just want to get good value for what we would be trading away, and we most definitely need to explore trading Atkins and Hawpe IMO.
As for Willy, the guy is frustrating. If he can play at the level he was playing at in 2007, then he most definitely can bat leadoff for us. However, the reason why he was so good in 2007, was because he would hit weak grounders and get bunt singles. If Dexter Fowler can come in and prove he can get on base more, then I’m all for Willy leaving, although he also played some solid defense.
As for the 2B battle, I would rather see the resources tied together to trade for a nice SP than Brian Roberts. This team isn’t necessarily lacking in offense. Strengthen the starting pitching, then look at 2B.
The only thing
is I doubt we’d get as much for Hawpe as we would for Atkins.
Die-hard Rockies fan. On the bandwagon since 7/6/93. Not giving up my seat. EVER!
by rockiesfan4ever on Aug 29, 2008 6:32 AM MDT up reply actions
Hawpe played 1st in college
You know you want to check out Matt's Korea blog: http://koreamatt.wordpress.com
Minors
Didn’t Hawpe come through at least part of the minors as a 1B?
Hawpe
played 1st in the minors. Was converted because of Helton.
by DieHardRox on Aug 29, 2008 8:48 AM MDT reply actions
2B...
What about Mark Ellis? Isn’t he a free agent at the end of this year? I wonder if he would be in the Rockies’ price range.
Rather not
In my opinion Ellis isn’t what we should look for. I think his average and OBP would be better in the NL, but that’s a gamble and I don’t see him as an upgrade over Barmes/Baker/Q at 2B. The power’s nice and all for a 2B, and with that he’ll get a decent (by no means great) contract from somebody. Just don’t think it should be us.
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