Sunday Morning Rockpile:
by Rox Girl
on Aug 3, 2008 9:36 AM MDT
in Rockpile
With Tulo starting to hit, Iannetta starting, our lineup is currently fine for the National League, our bullpen currently fine for the NL. The one glaring and obvious team weakness lies in three fifths of the starting rotation. By breaking down what it's taken teams to get quality starting help this July, namely the deals the Cubs, Brewers and Phillies have made, you can see that the decision of O'Dowd's to not get a starter boils down to large long term bets on two specific players, Ian Stewart and Dexter Fowler.
Stewart, in particular, seems to have been the key figure in keeping the Rockies from buying in 2008. For this point, it's helpful to go back to the offseason and look also at the Matt Garza/Delmon Young and Edinson Volquez/Josh Hamilton trades where it becomes clear that the best way to get a quality young cost controlled starter is to offer a quality young cost controlled power bat in return. It's become clear that nobody was offering starters of the caliber that O'Dowd's looking for (and should be looking for) in exchange for a reliever, no matter how good they are.
So unless O'Dowd plans on hunting up a similar trade to the Minnesota/Tampa Bay or Cincinnati/Texas deals by using Stewart this winter, it seems that the team is putting him into 2009's lineup in pencil already. Fowler might be in that category as well. In this case the wager made on Thursday was that a starting eight that included Dex and Stew in 2009 trumps the starting five getting rid of them would have brought. Looking at the numbers bears this out. Stewart this season, with a 138 OPS+ (compared to 105) and superior defense is already outperforming Atkins at third base. He'd be a downgrade offensively from Matt Holliday in left field, but not by much if he improves at the palte next season. Fowler, for his part, should be a better option than Taveras or Podsednik or Spilly by next April if he isn't already, but certainly by mid-summer at the latest.
So what we're left with is that the lot is basically cast here that the rotation problem and the extra parts we have are two distinct issues that are going to have to be solved separately if we want to put the best possible team on the field. Unless you're wearing a Pirates cap, you don't want us to give up Franklin Morales for Ian Snell when we all know that Morales could and should be better than Snell over the long haul. Nobody should want to give up Stewart for Duchsherer or Fowler for Washburn when Stewart and Fowler should be playing everyday in 2009 versus the once ever five day contribution those two starting pitchers will bring and the mediocrity that they'd bring at that.
So what O'Dowd ends up doing is kicking around the tires on guys like Livan Hernandez, somebody who's obviously not ideal, clearly only a National League bottom of the rotation starter at best (for more of that discussion check out Pioneer Skies diary on the right) but who might nonetheless be better than options we are currently using.
With fifteen strikeouts racked up in their loss yesterday, the Rockies continue a disturbing trend on offense. For the week they have 62 K's in 275 PA's as a team (22.5%,) compared to a season average of 18.6% and a NL average of 17.9%. Strikeouts by themselves aren't necessarily a bad thing, so long as there is a corresponding increase in other offensive categories, in fact, they could indicate either more patience or power and you should see a higher OBP or SLG, but we aren't exactly seeing that. What's actually happening is that the Rockies are striking out more, but also getting a little luckier with their balls hit into play so their overall offensive stats are basically the same. The problem is that once the luck with BABIP fades, the increasing lack of contact will take the team's offensive numbers down quickly.
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...overpay for quality starting pitching in the Majors. You always have done, you always will do. That’s why every farm system in baseball is filled with pitchers.
That being said, Dan O’Dowd was right to hold on to Stew and Dex and not spin them into Tim Redding or Jarrod Washburn.
Besides, I’m not too worried about this team in the medium term. Francis will be back and we have Reynolds/Hirsch/Morales who will get better and rejoin the Rockies.
And, if we’re honest, last night’s loss was not down to VdlS. Except for Matty, nobody got his bat out.
by Since1993 on
Aug 3, 2008 10:12 AM MDT
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Ways to build a Pitching Staff
As the old saying goes, “You can never have too much starting pitching” I’m starting to think that what is unsaid in that old cliche is: “cause good ones are hard to find”. O”Dowd stood pat, but I don’t blame him. He was looking at middle rotation guys, and they were wanting multiple A prospects. This is just a no go. Like Rox Girl said, an everyday bat is just as valuable as a pitcher that goes every 5 days. The Rockies are going to be built from their farm system and that includes their line-up. They have to produce an everyday player in the line up at least one a year, and some times 2 out of their system. That’s VERY hard to do. If out of every 3 prospects, one starts, one plays, and one washes out, a team has to have lots of quality prospects.
So how can the Rockies get their “Ace”?
1) Develop him. This takes a combination of coaching and a players ability. The problem with this, is it takes 2-3 years for most pitchers to find that major league groove, of going, every 5th day for 162 games over the long hot summer. Then before you know it they are walking as a FA, and if you are a small/medium size market you hope you can trade them for more prosects cause they are always needed, in the small/medium build from withne model.
2) Sign them as Free Agents. Everyone is going to want Roy Halliday…EVERYONE. For the Rockies to sign a guy like that, they are really going to have to pay. Can the Rockies pay $20 million (maybe plus) a year for a pitcher? When their payroll is around $75 million for 25 guys? I don’t think so. AND you run the risk of injury due the player getting older (Jason Schmidt) or just declining, due to either age/talent, (Zito) or they just got paid, now they can relax (A J Burnett). This route can ruin a team too. Even the mediocre pitchers go for a lot of money (See Jason Marquis, Gil Meche, Kevin Millwod, Jarrod Washurn, et al)
3) Scrap Heap finds. There is a reason a pitcher finds himself here. Bad years, age, injuries, attitude, etc. There are a few “finds”. The Rockies got lucky with Shawn Estes and Darren Oliver a couple years back, and Rodrigo Lopez last year, but again, scrap heap pitchers are there for a reason, and lots don’t work out especially long term. Redman was ok for a while, then not, Kip Wells, Josh Tower are busts. BUT, as much as it hurts to say this…...I think this is the safest, risk vs reward way to go. The bulk should be home grown, but the Rockies will always have to play here to round out a rotation.
Some Random Thoughts:
Why are we gong after Livon and not Shawn Chacon? I mean besides, the bad attitude, and physically assaulting his last boss? Sign him to a minor league contract, let him put in his time to get humbled in AAA. Then invite him to camp next year if he shows he has it emotionally and physically.
What happen to Rodrigo Lopez. I realize his agent is Scott Boras, and he had a terrible arm injury, but last year, it was thought he would be back around the all-star break this year, and he would get a nice FA contract to help a team for a post season run. But I haven’t heard word. I liked him a lot, thought he was very under-rated.
Am I the only one worried about Jeff Francis return? I hope he doesn’t break our hearts. He really needs to rebound, but what I saw this year, makes me worry he’s gong down the road that so many soft throwing lefties go down. He HAS to have control and movement to be effective.
Today reminded me how much I miss Rox Girls well written, and thought out analytical posts. She is one of the few writers that when she talks numbers don’t sound like Charlie Brown’s teacher, when I read them.
The biggest problem the Rockies need to figure out for any kind of future success isn’t pitching…it’s hitting, specially on the road. How do they deal with going on the road. Bat have alway disappeared on the road. It’s not just cause the player are not good hitter, or inflated because of Coors Field. Something odd is going on here, and needs to be figured out and then addressed
Sorry for the long post…..I had some time.
Thought Clint Hurdle should be fired before it was cool.
by Redhawk on
Aug 3, 2008 11:16 AM MDT
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Lopez
I think I remember something awhile back about him not being ready until September at the earliest. But that was probably at least a couple months ago.
by holly96 on
Aug 3, 2008 12:23 PM MDT
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Jair Jurrjens
Jair Jurrjens was acquired for Edgar Renteria.
Thanks for pointing out that quality young starting pitching CAN be acquired but that teams (GASP!) expect quality major league players in return.
Perhaps I am misreading his perceived value around the league but I have always felt that Atkins might be able to draw such a return if we were smart enough to trade him while he can still play 3rd base and he is still under team control for a few years.
Holliday obviously should be able to draw such a pitcher at the heart of a deal.
Hopefully the Rockies will pony up the cash and use a couple of the top 50 picks that they should have in next year’s draft to take the best available pitchers (rather than the most signable).
The Latin American signing and development programs have done a GREAT job of bringing power arms into the system but the Rockies can’t rely on foreign free agents alone (especially because the development time on those players is so much longer than on players available in the draft).
by MADness on
Aug 3, 2008 12:34 PM MDT
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