Saturday Pebble Report:
Colorado Springs: L 6-11
Joe Koshansky hit his thirtieth AAA homerun of the season. Jason Hirsh had a rough start.
Tulsa: L 5-6
Casey Weathers came into the game in a very high leverage situation with runners on first and second with nobody out in the bottom of the ninth, he induced two weak pop-ups and struck out the last batter. He got himself into his own jam in the tenth, allowing a double and an intentional walk, but only after striking out the first two batters. He got through that, too. Less than 60% strikes on his pitches isn't usually a good thing, but that IBB may be skewing that number down from where it would be otherwise. Without context, it's hard to tell if it was a straight intientional walk, or if the team decided to make the intentional pass when Weathers was already in a hole with the count.
Chaz Roe pitched alright, I'm pretty down on him right now, and I'm not entirely sure how justified I am in that. Check out the 18/2 GO/AO rate he had in eight innings as evidence that I've unfairly abused him by not having him in my top ten instead of Hynick. I like Hynick's primary stuff better, I like Roe's secondary stuff better and depending on which I'll feel would be most useful to the Rockies will be how I rate these two on any given day.
Modesto: W 4-1
Michael Paulk had his fourth straight multi-hit game with two hits, and he also walked twice. His August (.380/.424/.556) and second half (.339/.405/.465) are showing some clear upward trends that are very encouraging. I'm guilty of this, but I think we get too wrapped up in power potential sometimes to recognize the value of these simple hard contact players like Paulk and Darin Holcomb. A four way combination of power, contact (plate coverage), strike zone judgment and plate discipline, such as Matt Holliday has or that Todd Helton showed in his heyday is clearly preferable. Second best would probably be something like Ian Stewart or Brad Hawpe's power plus plate discipline and strike zone judgment with minor holes in the plate coverage. They don't create a whole lot of outs, but frequently do a lot of damage to the opposition. After that, though, limiting outs becomes huge, and contact plus plate discipline guys like Paulk, Darin Holcomb, Garrett Atkins or Ryan Spilborghs or like Helton is now, who have enough power to keep defenses honest and hit a few HR's, are important for filling out the everyday lineup. The more HR's they hit or the more BB's they take, obviously the more valuable they become. I guess I should somehow include swing speed as a way of distinguishing Paulk and Holcomb from someone like Matt Miller or Christian Colonel or Hawpe and Stewart from Koshansky and point out that because something doesn't appear to be an issue in the minors doesn't mean it's not an issue. All of this is a way of saying that though I may diss on the power (and you can now include Charlie Blackmon in that category) I recognize that there's still some MLB value to be had with these players.
Aneury Rodriguez: Great start.
Asheville: L 0-16
Shane Lindsay: Terrible Start
Tri-City: L 3-4
Charlie Blackmon had a pair of doubles and Patrick Rose and Scott Robinson each had three hits. In all the Dust Devils had fourteen hits, but four 6-4-3 GIDP's acted as a buzzkill for what should have been a romp for our side. If the Dust Devils never have to hear the words "Cooper to Bordes to Smith" again, I'm sure they won't mind. I guess the good news is that playing Yakima gives me a chance to take a close look at some of Arizona's talent, and when I tell you that their system is barren, one need not look much further than Yakima's team to see why. The D-backs had one prospect pass through in outfielder Collin Cowgill, who is now adjusting slowly to their Low A affiliate, but otherwise form a collection of players with questionable futures. If you want to know why I'm so excited about Scott Robinson despite seemingly mediocre stats, compare what he's doing at the plate with the results of their 19 year olds (particularly Alfredo Marte, who the D-backs are high on) to get an idea how far ahead of the game he is. For that matter, stack up Leo Reyes against their guys too. The Rockies continue to far outpace Arizona in finding talent not unearthed by Baseball America or Perfect Game Crosschecker. Now, the Padres, however, that's a different story. Initial results indicate that San Diego cleaned up with their college draftees, I'm just hoping that they take a step or three back to earth against tougher competition.
Casper: L 4-5
Wilin Rosario went zero for five with a pair of strikeouts, not what we want to see from our new golden boy. Jimmy Cesario, Zack Murry and Alez Feinberg all had a pair of hits.
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Hard contact is not
a .310 average from a 24 year old in primarily an offensive league. Paulk will be treated as non-prospect until he does it all the way up the ladder.
Oh, and you’re down on Roe because he rarely touches 90 anymore, not a good sign from a right hander who reportedly use to sit in the low 90’s. Still top fifteen quality, but I think Hynick fits the profile of a back end starter better than Roe.
seriously david?
a .300 avg at any full season is pretty impressive for a fulltime player. I understand that average does not mean squat at Casper but in the upper levels you dont think that is good?
For a respective minor league sure
but go look at all the average leaderboards right now in the minors and you’ll see most filled with guys too old for their leagues taking advantage of the younger competition.
Flatly no, an empty .300 average isn’t impressive, not in the Cali League, and not from a guy two years too old for his league. Again, you expect the varsity hitters to hit on JV.
Paulk's not as bad as most...
Frankly, I think he’s a better bet to have MLB value than either of the two 1B’s ahead of him. His swing is decent, not a lot of wasted movement like you see in Koshansky’s and Kindel’s. I’m not sure what exactly happened earlier this season, but I do know he deserves a bit more credit than your average over-aged journeyman. How much? Maybe not a lot, you’ll be able to see for yourself next year. What I’m saying is that he’s got more value to the organization than guys with raw power that never show a consistent ability to put wood to the ball.
ok but.....
you guys talk alot about age. These kids can not help where the rockies place them. For instance, last year, Cunningham, Pachecho and guys like that were placed at Casper as post juniors in college. At the same time, so were Robinson, Murry and Lowe who were one year college guys as a draft and follow. So…to start with, the 3 college guys were already put at a 2 year disadvantage. Now, I do understand if a person is way too old but until a player hits a certain age, i really feel like the first 3 years of any pro ball player’s career is about learning. Am I wrong?
To a degree, yes that's wrong
because when you look at development curves across time in baseball, you generally see a cap on major development around age 25, with 21-23 being the big years for physical growth and maturation. At 24 in High A, Paulk’s playing with plenty of players with two less years of baseball experience/physical growth than him, so it does matter.
As for the Rockies slow development track, it’s pretty well known, but at the same time, they aren’t going to hold you back if you’re tearing the cover off the ball. If Paulk was proving that he’s too good for his league, he’d be in Tulsa right now, but as was the case last year, he’s merely been good. In effect, players can control their rate of progress, they have to hi their way off the island, and Paulk has not done that.
Well, he'll be a year behind Kindel
both in terms of Double A age and playing level. Kindel also had the superior Cali League numbers between the two, when you look at Jeff’s ’07.
When you talk about high contact first basemen, you still need a hint of pop. Sean Doolittle comes to mind as one I’d gamble on, even if the upside is that of Lyle Overbay, but even he had huge Cali League numbers while being young for the league.
The success rate of players of Paulk’s ilk just isn’t much too make a big deal about. Especially when guys like Bowman and Kindel do the same act a little better, sandwhiching Paulk in the system.
Good points and I can't argue with them
I’m speaking purely from a swing mechanics standpoint that Paulk’s got a better chance at hitting MLB pitching than Kindel. His value will definitely be limited, but it’s not as limited as a strict age/level/performance evaluation makes it look. I think Bowman’s a little slow, he’s definitely not going to outpace Holcomb in contact, but he should make up for it in power numbers.
I wasnt really just meaning
Paulk. I just wanted an age you all thought was where you thought the physical development ceased. I would hate to think that a Shane Lowe would be off the total radar when he only 20. I got my answer of 24 and I can live with that.































