Sunday Rockpile: The Closer Conundrum
First off, let me just say that I hate the term "closer", and I think the save as a statistic is silly. K-Rod's record just shows that he's an effective reliever and that the Angels are a good, but probably not dominant team. By itself it doesn't mean that he's deserving of placement in the baseball Pantheon. Instead, I'm going to talk about high leverage relievers, those pitchers that a team has confidence in the tightest spots in a game. I think while closers as a class are overrated, the backlash against this catches up the significance of having a couple of high quality relievers on a team's outcome so that many fans seem to think all relievers are created equal and that they're more or less interchangeable. This simply isn't true, the differences in skill in relief show just as much as differences of skill in other portions of the game, it's just that statistically they become insignificant with small sample sizes. Statistical insignificance is not indicative that these are interchangeable parts, it simply means that there's not enough data to create a sizable margin of error.
I think a measure of good teams is to have three of this type of high leverage pitcher, but the order they are used isn't as important as the spots they get used in. So Arizona's replacement of Chad Qualls for Brandon Lyon just shuffles their hand but does nothing to make the underlying weakness of their cards any better. In Qualls and Juan Cruz, the D-backs have two high leverage guys, but the rest of their bullpen doesn't quite qualify. With Cruz on his way out thanks to free agency, Arizona will be one of many teams this offseason looking to fill gaps of quality in the bullpen.
The Rockies are in a similar boat, but I think we might be better positioned to fill our bullpen needs. We have two solid high leverage pitchers in Brian Fuentes and Taylor Buchholz, with Fuentes leaving. Manny Corpas is borderline and obviously the team hopes he can step up and play a high leverage role once more in 2009. Casey Weathers is on the farm and progressing and might make the major league pen, but likely won't be an HLR from Opening Day. Still, there's promise that he will become so by later in the season.
What's more, the Rockies should be well positioned to go after the top relievers on the trade market, such as Oakland's Huston Street, if they are wise in accumulating talent for trading Garrett Atkins or Matt Holliday. I see this as an issue for the ofseason, but I see it as a far easier solution than say, second base. The catch I see with this is that our front office has to show more willingness to accept quantity in the ultimate pursuit of quality (sort of like how the D-backs used the parts they got for Carlos Quentin to flip for Dan Haren, even if I think that last trade was a mistake) than they have indicated in press reports. The front office can't go trolling for rebounds like they did with Luis Vizcaino last year. We've seen this story, it doesn't play out well as often as teams seem to wish to believe it does. At any rate, add the bullpen situation as one more intriguing storyline to follow for the offseason.
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Interesting
I must say, it’s getting a bit less exciting watching the Rockies this year (but I do of course), but thinking about the off-season and next year makes me feel pretty excited. In my book the whole Fuentes off-season situation has gone from good to frustratingly good. Three months ago I was thrilled that we’d just get two draft picks, but now I’m almost wishing we had complete control over him for one more year. After-all, he is the best relief pitcher the Rockies ever had (with apologies to Steve Reed). Still, even with his departure, I don’t consider this one of the most pressing needs to spend excessively on either with money or prospects. To me, the bullpen is usually the single biggest crap shoot from year to year anyway (which is not to demean it’s importance), and going into the season with two legitimate closer options (Bucholtz and Corpas) is better than average. The rest I think can be filled in (with luck) through the ol’ shotgun approach. Guys from the minors like Weathers and perhaps Register. Then resiging a few of the scrap-heap finds we brought in this year like Grilli and Rusch. It also seems like relievers quite often have alternating good and bad years (overuse maybe?), and perhaps Vizcaino can regain enough form to be an effective middle reliever. The one thing I don’t want to see is the Rockies spending $4 to 5 million on borderline set-up guys like Vizcaino again. I’d rather have the money go towards 4 or 5 Spring training reclamation projects like Grilli than all my budget tied up in one mediocre arm. Besides, I see that 4 million better spent towards an true impact 2nd baseman or starting pitcher. Let’s say Lowe or Garland and Hudson or Roberts. Of course, should Holliday and/or Atkins bring us that #3 caliber starting pitcher, that will also allow for shifting somebody (JDLR or possibly Hirsch) from the rotation to the pen. Heck, if it’s a good enough and young enough pitcher I could even see the Rockies toying with the idea of converting Morales to the pen. If he could harnass his control on just two of his pitchs, I could see him closing as he matures.
by IowaRockie on Sep 14, 2008 1:53 PM MDT reply actions 0 recs
I agree
that the bullpen for most teams is in a constant state of rebuilding. Whether you prescribe to moneyball’s technique or not you have to give it to Beane for never signing a terrible reliever contract. Buy low-sell high, thats’ why I’m ok with Fuentes leaving. GIVE THE KIDS A CHANCE instead of the Herges’ of the world.
InToddwetrust
by InToddwetrust on Sep 15, 2008 10:14 AM MDT reply actions 0 recs






















