Precocious Ian Stewart experiencing sophomore slump as a freshman
by Rox Girl on Sep 27, 2008 11:26 AM MDT
in Rockpile
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Print- May: .273/.333/.455
- June: .182/.250/.485
- July: .432/.519/.614
- August: .295/.412/.526
- September: .152/.188/.273
So, ascribing to the theory that baseball is as much a game of miniscule adjustments as much as it is of big time skills, Ian Stewart's dismal performance this month leads to one of two likely conclusions:
1. Stewart has relapsed into the player he was early in the season, a Mark Reynolds wannabe who K's a bunch but doesn't homer quite enough to make up for it.
2. Pitchers have figured out a new way to approach Stewart that has him looking exactly like the player he was early in the season even though he's not, really. No really, he's not.
My sarcasm probably tells you which way I'm leaning, but I don't necessarily feel that either is a terrible sign for the Rockies or Stewart just yet. Backsliding happens early in a career. Struggles happen. Stewart's just 23, he's talented, he'll gain more of the good kind of consistency as he goes along. The real problem that the Rockies face with this is that the 2009 team can't afford to muddle through June/September Ian if we're dealing both Matt and Garrett this winter. The possible upside here is that while backsliding does happen, if Ian's as good as we think he is, then the other side of this slump ought to leave him in a position where he'll be better able to quickly identify and correct his errors and the next down phase shouldn't last as long. The hope here is that the corrections will be made over the winter and he comes back more like July/August Ian.
Troy Tulowitzki's showing that he's broken through his own sophomore slump with a .329/.389/.549 September. Similarly to JDLR, that progress needs to be locked in for next season. In all, the lineup is shaping up decently as long as Ian can get back aboard.
The Rockies have been using Seth Smith in center field frequently of late, with good results offensively and at least passable results on defense. Dexter Fowler remains a wild card, so it seems that the club is trying Smith as a sort of backup plan. It seems to be showing that the club is seriously considering trading Willy Taveras this winter.
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I'm not overly worried about Stew
As you say, he’s awfully young and has plenty of time to get his play heading north again.
In other news, Dave Krieger has the other side of Holliday’s demands in his column today.
I cannot say whether things will get better if we change; what I can say is they must change if they are to get better. -Georg C. Lichtenberg:
Muddle through?
Somebody watched the debate last night.
It could just be what a lot of rookies, and even veterans experience – just the fatigue of playing through a (almost) full, frustrating major league season. It’s not unrealistic to expect that he’ll be somewhere between the May and August guy – a good producer, but with a tendency to go through periods where he strikes out too much. It’ll likely even out as time goes on, rather than continuing apace like the careers of Reynolds or Dunn (although if he’s Dunn, that’s not such a bad thing, especially at Coors).
The most important thing not to muddle through is a crappy April bullpen and Mark Redman and Kip Wells eating up starts in the first half. JDLR and Casey Weathers can be the saviors!
What can I say? I'm a parrot...
The media drives my narrative and I just go along for the ride.
I agree, if Ian K’s like Dunn or last year’s Ryan Howard (last year’s version particularly) it’s not a bad thing, if he does it like Reynolds or this year’s Howard, it’s less effective. Dan Uggla’s another example of the “good” kind of K machine where the important thing is that all that selectivity is also allowing him to get on base at a fair clip. If the OBP’s below .350, than it means he’s just a supporting cast member and not the middle of the order threat we need.
Take a chance
The Rockies need to take the chance that Ian Stewart can perform next year.
Jeff Baker, IMO, is a credible back-up at third if Stewart struggles but Stewart needs to get the playing time if he is going to develop into a key player in the future.
Sell high(ish) on Atkins and take your chances with Stewart.
I agree
and one of the main reasons has to do with defense as well.
Stewart’s plus/minus (thanks for bringing this to the public Bill James Online!) for the year at third is +2, which doesn’t put him into the elite or even upper tier of third base defenders, but he is making more outs than expected of him and the defense is a positive.
On the flip side, Atkins’ improvement at third was a little overstated, as his plus/minus rose from a completely unacceptable -29 last year, to a still below average -11 (he didn’t help himself either moving to first, at -10 there). A swing of 13 outs between the two is significant, but easily overlooked if Atkins was much superior offensively, but with a .263 EQA compared to Stew’s current .278, his offense has been less valuable as well.
As MADness brings up, another point to consider:
player one: .289/.330/.456 .263 -11
player two: .268/.322/.468 .265 -1
Based off my early numbers, it’s obvious player one is Atkins. Maybe more surprising to some, player two has proven to be more valuable offensively and defensively than Atkins, to the point that calling player two a credible back-up may be a slight disservice. Yes, Jeff Baker is a very streaky player, but he’s still proven to be a more valuable player on a per play basis.
When it comes to third baseman next year, you have to weigh all three factors: offensive contribution, defensive contribution, and financial cost. Stewart’s ’08 on a per play basis is superior in all three categories, and Baker follows right behind. In reality, Atkins is likely our third best option at the position at this point. When you consider he might have the best trade value, the decision “should be” a no brainer.
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