Tuesday Rockpile: The Return of Corpas?
by Russ Oates on Jan 13, 2009 7:58 AM MST
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PrintManny Corpas and other Rockies are working out at Coors Field, and Corpas is ready to compete with Huston Street for the closer's job. Patrick Saunders points out two things that Manny Corpas has done to put himself in line to battle Street. First:
“I watched a lot of tape and I realized what I was doing wrong,” Corpas said.
Simply put, Corpas was dropping his arm to the side instead of throwing with more of an over-the-top motion. As a result, his pitches were spinning over the plate last season, resulting in a 4.52 ERA that was more than twice as high as his 2.08 ERA in 2007.
Second:
Last season, at age 25, Corpas ballooned up to 230 pounds, and he admitted the spare tire around his mid-section was a contributing factor to a disappointing 2008 season.
“I started feeling more tired,” said Corpas, who blamed with weight gain on too many late-night meals of chicken, rice and beans.
Apparently Corpas is down to 216 and wants to be a little lighter before the World Baseball Classic starts.
Corpas did have a 4.52 ERA last season, but he also had a 3.88 FIP. Remember, FIP tells us how well a pitcher pitched without regard to his fielders. If we look back to 2007, Corpas' FIP was 3.51 and his ERA, as mentioned above, was 2.08. So, with these changes by Corpas and a better defense in 2009, the truth about Corpas will likely be somewhere in the middle of his last two seasons.
Huston Street, don't start feeling comfortable.
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Couple things
Fangraphs had his FIP at 3.96. Not a monumental difference, but I’m wondering if it’s their own calculation or if they just misread Bill James.
I’m interested in Corpas’ .330 BABIP dropping a ways, too. Remember that his 2007 BABIP was a pretty low .260, so we’re not gonna see those 2.08 ERAs again.
Corpas’ numbers have been interesting. His K/9’s have dropped from mid 7s to mid 5s over the past 3 years, and GB wen from like 45% to 55% to around 50% in 08. He DID walk more the past season, but not astronomically so.
If he gets himself back in shape, readjusts his arm slot, he’ll more than likely return to better GB, better K, and that BABIP should waver around the .310 mark we see from a lot of Coors pitchers – esp when he stops tipping his pitches.
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Should have mentioned
that I was using The Hardball Times’ FIP, which uses a slightly different formula.
"If we never try, we shall never succeed." - Abraham Lincoln
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YES YOU SHOULD HAVE.
Seriously though, I think Manny was in his own head pre ASB. His WHIP, ERA, K/BB, and taste in late-90s alt-rock all improved post ASB.
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by Andrew Martin on Jan 13, 2009 10:58 AM MST up reply actions
Corpas had a different spin on his ball last year...
He was missing that bite to it from 2007, it looked more like a frisbee in 2008.
Keepin' warm by the hot stove season.
Better Bullpen than '07?
Bullpen ERA, 2007: 3.85
Bullpen ERA, 2008: 4.13
I think it’s possible, if Grilli/Speier and Rusch/Smith prove to be effective in the 6th and 7th innings and long-relief, that with Buchholz and the non-closer of Street/Corpas, that the ‘09 bullpen could eclipse the ’07 group as the Rockies’ best. Grilli and Speier can easily fill Viz’s role from last year and LaTroy’s from two years ago. Fuentes will hurt a bit, but hopefully Embree can take care of lefties. Buchholz, Street, and Corpas should be three good options for the 8th and 9th.
While it’s a big assumption to say that both Corpas and Street will be healthy and in good form, they are both high quality closers if those assumptions are fulfilled. With the back end of the rotation better and likely to eat up more innings than ever, the bullpen should be deep, versatile, and effective from the 6th or 7th on.
C'mon, Manny!
2009: time to bring filthy back.
I hope we get Pettitte
not Sheets. But its doubtful we’ll sign either. It was already basically a lock that we wouldn’t get Lowe, because he wanted to pitch on the east coast.
by Brendan Scolari on Jan 14, 2009 1:44 AM MST up reply actions
Pettitte was
pretty frustrating to watch this past year. Maybe a change of scenery or going back to the NL will help but he seems like he needs a high powered offense behind him nowadays to mask his league-averageness…
He got really unlucky
and the Yankees defense was awful. But he had like a 3.71 FIP (can’t check for the exact number, I have to go to class) in 204 innings so I would say he was pretty good considering he was pitching in the AL East.
by Brendan Scolari on Jan 14, 2009 8:17 PM MST up reply actions
Pettite would be the one guy left that would make the Dodgers clear favorites
Assuming that they also sign Manny, of course. Otherwise, even with Sheets who is such an injury risk to not be getting much attention, it would seem that they’d still be within a game or two of the Rockies and Giants projection wise. I think they’d still feel a bit stronger with Sheets, but I don’t think it would really show up in the numbers without being hyperoptimistic on his IP.
Don't know whether you saw it,
but Jim wrote an interesting analysis of Ben Sheets’ free agency situation, including injury risks.
"Of course, it’s downright frightening to imagine how two Adam Dunns would turn the double play." - Joe Posnanski
Yeah pretty much
I would be thrilled if they sign Pettitte and Manny, but its very unlikely. The other benefit would be not having to give up a first round pick, whereas with Sheets we would.
by Brendan Scolari on Jan 14, 2009 9:16 PM MST up reply actions
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