Saturday Morning Rockpile: Herges gone; A look at left field

by wolf213 on Jan 17, 2009 12:24 AM MST Comment 22 comments

First and foremost for the news of the day, Matt Herges has signed with the Indians according the the Rocky Mountain News. While Herges was very good in 2007, posting a sub 3.00 era, he was much worse in 2008 and his loss is not huge to the team, considering his projections this season have him being no more worse then this guy.

Also from Troy Reneck at his Denver Post Blog, it looks as if the coin flip for deciding homefield advantage on tie breakers by coin flip is gone. Instead homefield advantage will be given to the team who had the best in season recored against each other. In 2007 the Rockies had the series advantage by 11-8 so the tiebreaker game would have still been in Denver under this new system. This system also seems to be a better way to determain homefield advantage in my opinion.

I think we should take a look at what will be in left field this season for the rockies, now the Holliday is gone. While this subject has been touched upon breifly, I think an in depth look at our options will be useful. What I have done is averaged the 3 projections for the 2 main contenders to get an idea of what we can expect. Numbers in the standard Ave/OBP/SLG/OPS format.

Player A: .282/.354/.452/.806

Player B: .267/.345/.461/.806

Basically look at the numbers, player A and B will for the most part give us the same kind of production with the bat. Where the difference lies is with defense. While one player has played the OF before and has been able to play CF in a pinch a few times, the other is strictly a corner infielder. If you havn't figured it out yet, player A is Seth Smith and Player B is Ian Stewart. I have heard a lot of grumbling lately from here and the comment sections of the two Denver newspapers about Stewart in LF. This in my opinion would be a mistake. Seth Smith, while short on the tools that Stewart brings to the table, has hit at every level he has been to. This trend hasn't stopped when he has been in the Majors either. In 116 AB, he has hit .284/.366/.466/.832 and while 116 AB's is nothing to get hot and bothered with, he has at least shown some what of a conistancy, and he has the minor league numbers to give plenty of projection into what he can do in the future. I wouldn't be surpised if he hits 20+ homeruns next year while having an OBP closing in on .900

This isn't to say that I'm not high on Stewart because I am. When taking into account defence I would go on a limb and say right now will be just as good, if not better then Atkins next year. Atkins has a projected OPS in the .830's next year, and I think that he might have a hard time getting there, where as I wouldn't be shocked if Stewart added .40 points to his projected SLG perecentage. To prove it, I have put my money where my mouth is. In a sim league I am in, I have traded Atkins for pitching prospect Wade Davis. While I don't think the Rockies could get a Wade Davis for Atkins in real life, I think that once Helton proves he is healthy, Aktins should be out the door. Stewart and Smith are going to be good players going forward. Both have nothing to prove at the minor league levels. Please Colorado, lets give them a shot, and I guarantee by June the fans will forget all about who was in left field during the 2008 campain.

Eat. Drink. Be Merry. But the above FanPost does not necessarily reflect the attitudes, opinions, or views of Purple Row's staff (unless, of course, it's written by the staff [and even then, it still might not]).

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Wow....

early start.

"Of course, it’s downright frightening to imagine how two Adam Dunns would turn the double play." - Joe Posnanski

by DbacksSkins on Jan 17, 2009 12:51 AM MST reply actions 0 recs

Technically

it WAS Saturday morning.

by Tom (RFTN) on Jan 17, 2009 5:32 AM MST up reply actions 0 recs

No disagreement.

Just sayin’.

"Of course, it’s downright frightening to imagine how two Adam Dunns would turn the double play." - Joe Posnanski

by DbacksSkins on Jan 17, 2009 7:16 PM MST up reply actions 0 recs

Please Colorado, lets give them a shot, and I guarantee by June the fans will forget all about who was in left field during the 2008 campain.

You mean the guy that was MVP caliber led the team in Home Runs and RBI’s 2 years in a row, and who was up there in Jersey sales (including mine). I don’t think we will forget that easy.

LF’s real issue is at first base. This is about where would be the best place to play Ian Stewart, on a regular basis and get his bat in the line-up for his long term future. Stewart has really only played 3rd his entire career. There was some time at 2nd and Lf last year in the Springs for first 1/2 of the season and Stew actually did surprisingly well at 2nd when he played there in the majors for the few games that he did. But he’s the Rockies 3rd baseman of the future, so I think he should be at 3rd now. Helton may never really return to any form of production, as I see him being a shadow of his former self and ANY thing the Rockies get out of him I would consider a bonus. Atkins is a futurer DH.

Spilly should play LF. That’s his future position. Not CF. LF. Fowler and Gonzalez should be in CF. If they are not ready, they better get it ready. Podsednick can fill in/split time as a filler until they are.

"Suck it monkeys, the Rockies will win this year", Rox Girl 1-11-2009

by Redhawk on Jan 17, 2009 9:16 AM MST reply actions 0 recs

That statement is a little far fetched,

to say the least. Holliday’s not going to be forgotten, and I don’t envy the guys who will have him as a standard of comparison this season.

by Rox Girl on Jan 17, 2009 9:23 AM MST up reply actions 0 recs

I completely agree.

Stewart is the future and should have a hefty split with Atkins while Garrett and the Toddfather also platoon. Spilly in left sounds better to me than Smith, while I’d rather the Rockies gave Gonzales or Fowler a chance in center. After all, they won’t develop if they don’t get major league ABs.

Eschew Obfuscation!

by Jeff Aberle on Jan 17, 2009 9:25 AM MST up reply actions 0 recs

and there is a difference between "rushing" a position player

and rushing a pitcher. Rushing a pitcher is terrible. They have to get a feel for their pitches, and “pitching” vs “throwing”. But for a position player…there comes a time, when he needs to take his lumps against the major league pitchers. They might need to have a refresher coarse in AAA especially for the mental part, but at some point, to be a major leaguer…they have to play in the major leagues.

Which is why Stewart should play at 3rd. Don’t mess with his head, at 2nd or LF and add more to him, as he learns to cut out on his K’s and his throwing errors. (actually in his brief time, to me he’s looked better at 2nd then at 3rd)

Gonzales looks to me to be ready. Fowler…not so much (he looks like a tiny little guy to me and didn’t look good in the Olympics which is basically a AA all star tourny). I’m ok with Podsednick. He’s no superstar, but he’s ok and can run. There are worst situations to be in then having Podsednick as the Rockies starting CF.

"Suck it monkeys, the Rockies will win this year", Rox Girl 1-11-2009

by Redhawk on Jan 17, 2009 9:46 AM MST up reply actions 0 recs

I disagree

You can most definitely damage a position player by rushing him. Not nearly as much as a pitcher, but Gonzo or Fowler could certainly begin overswinging, develop holes in their swings while desperately trying anything to get out of a slump, or unnecessarily damage their self-confidence. We DO have OF depth, so if they don’t wow us in ST to earn a starting gig, I’m more than content to let them continue at the Springs.

by Andrew T. Fisher on Jan 17, 2009 9:52 AM MST up reply actions 0 recs

OF Depth ?

well if you take out BOTH Gonzales and Fowler that leaves only Smith, Spilly, Hawpe and non roster Podsednick. Unless you count Barmes or Stewart in the OF

"Suck it monkeys, the Rockies will win this year", Rox Girl 1-11-2009

by Redhawk on Jan 17, 2009 10:02 AM MST up reply actions 0 recs

More Paige-esque baiting?

You’re on a role today. In my mind we have too much OF depth and not enough OF front line talent. Too many jack-of-all-trade guys like Baker and Barmes, I really don’t think depth is the issue.

by Rox Girl on Jan 17, 2009 10:09 AM MST up reply actions 0 recs

um no...I guess that was an example of bad Paige writing

I truly don’t think the Rox have much OF depth.. It gets thinner if Fowler and Gonzo are both taken out of the mix for that depth.

I really like Spilly and think we can really surprise this year.Hawpe is a starter that drives in 100 rbis, and improved last year. Pods is a nice bench guy, even part time starter. That’s 3 OF’s

To me Smith is a complete unknown. To project him as anything good or bad, is a reach. But for depth/bench OF’er I he’s legit…that’s 4 OF’s

And I don’t count the bodies of Barmes/Baker, or our 3rd baseman as OF’s. So…where is the depth with Fowler and Gonzales out of the mix? Or should I be counting the bodies of Barmes/Baker?

"Suck it monkeys, the Rockies will win this year", Rox Girl 1-11-2009

by Redhawk on Jan 17, 2009 10:24 AM MST up reply actions 0 recs

I'm comfortable

with Hawpe, Spilly, Smith and Pods being the top 4 OFs. Between the 4, you can build a 3-deep depth chart at each OF position where defense is serviceable (except, ironically, the starting RF). Stewart, Baker. or Barmes could get looks to fill out depth/

I’m basically saying that we’re not the Pirates – we don’t need to rush anyone.

by Andrew T. Fisher on Jan 18, 2009 12:41 AM MST up reply actions 0 recs

Yeah, but now's not necessarily that time...

For either Gonzalez or Fowler. Gonzalez hasn’t been lighting Venezuela on fire this winter and still needs to develop an ability to recognize and lay off junk. Spilborghs hits well, and will only be a partial butcher in the field. Both Fowler and Gonzalez have options left, both are several seasons from their peak performances, neither project to be better hitters in 2009 than who we’ve got, why push them? If we’re stuck with the Monforts as owners (and we are) why would it be in the team’s best interest to develop them in the MLB when it will make them more expensive sooner?

Unless they’re ready to step in and contribute at a playoff caliber level right now, I just don’t see the sense in putting them in Denver from the start of this season.

by Rox Girl on Jan 17, 2009 9:56 AM MST up reply actions 0 recs

If they aren't ready

then they aren’t ready. But if they are close (and that’s a big if) then the mix works much better with one splitting in CF with Pods, and Spilly and Smith in LF. Smith hasn’t had a lot AB’s in the majors, and to me is unproven.

(and that kids….is how to take a page from Woody Paige. Push a point that’s a little out there to stir up some “jane you ignorant slut” rebuttals!)

"Suck it monkeys, the Rockies will win this year", Rox Girl 1-11-2009

by Redhawk on Jan 17, 2009 10:05 AM MST up reply actions 0 recs

I've got to say I disagree with the idea that Gonzaelz/Fowler

Need MLB AB’s to develop. PCL AB’s will work just as well for the moment for both of them until they are a little more ready. I think some fans are wanting a total reboot after the Holliday trade, but given the weakness of the division, I don’t think we have to commit to that just yet. If at the start of the season Fowler or Gonzalez show that they will bring the team more value than the current projected alignment, then go for it, but their MLB careers to date (combined with the solid albeit unspectacular MLB performances thus far of Smith and Spilborghs) suggests that the latter two will bring more value to the ballclub, and since that’s the case and there’s no harm to development by giving CarGo and Fowler more time in AAA, I don’t see why it would make sense to rush those two.

by Rox Girl on Jan 17, 2009 9:46 AM MST up reply actions 0 recs

Ok ya it was a bit far fetch

Basically what I was getting at is people shouldn’t be underrating Smith as much as I think they are. He’s going to be fine.

Also, Spilly should be in Center Field. He’s earned his shot and remember during the 2007 Stretch run, he played a very solid center field for 2 solid months because WIlly T was hurt. He belongs in CF until Fowler and Gonzalez show they are ready. To me nothing they have done in the Majors yet would justify that they deserve to knock Smith or Spilly out of position. Let them earn their way on.

by wolf213 on Jan 17, 2009 10:08 AM MST up reply actions 0 recs

From reading the comments to the post,

I can definitely see where you’re coming from in the feeling that Smith is underrated. It’s probably a bit too much hyperbole to compare him to Matt, though.

by Rox Girl on Jan 17, 2009 10:10 AM MST up reply actions 0 recs

Yes it was

I agree, at midnight however I was on a role, and I wanted to finish with a strong statement.

by wolf213 on Jan 17, 2009 10:13 AM MST up reply actions 0 recs

The first game I saw Helton play in...

He was manning left field while the “Big Cat” was at 1st base. Compared to Dante Bichette Helton looked like a gold glove first basemen playing the outfield.

Keepin' warm by the hot stove season.

by Charlie77 on Jan 18, 2009 9:50 AM MST up reply actions 0 recs

Totally agree with those who advise caution on rushing Fowler and Gonzalez.

If they’re ready fine. Bring ‘em up. But please make sure they’re ready before throwing them into the fray. Matt spent several years in the minors before he had his swing and game worked out. Let’s give these two the same chance to succeed.

As far as LF without Fowler and CarGon, I’m all for Pods in CF and Spilly and Smith splitting LF. And I still believe that Ian will get the lions share of 3B starts because Atkins will be playing 1st in the absence of Todd. If Ian has to be played somewhere other than 3rd, make it 2nd. He’s an infielder. And as someone above said, he actually has better fielding percentage at 2nd than 3rd albeit in a shorter time frame.

by pedalpusher on Jan 17, 2009 7:31 PM MST reply actions 0 recs

Matt was thrown in.

If I remember correctly the starting left fielder in 2004 got injured just a few games into the season. According to Baseball Reference Holliday was hitting .364 when he got called up, but he only had 22 at bats in Colorado Springs. He had not played above Tulsa or had a batting average above .276 at any level in the system with the exception of rookie ball.

I do agree that Fowler and Gonzalez need to be primed and prepared before they receive regular playing time. Let’s not rush them because the OF looks pretty solid (not excellent) right now. I also agree that Stewart needs to stay on the infield (or AAA). Let Baker and Barmes take the extra outfield playing time for now.

"People ask me what I do in winter when there's no baseball. I'll tell you what I do. I stare out the window and wait for spring." ~Rogers Hornsby
JFK

by jrockies on Jan 18, 2009 10:23 AM MST up reply actions 0 recs

I'm a big fan of the Player A/B thing.

I use it quite a bit in posts because it can help show a bias, as you’ve done.

While I don’t agree completely with your choice for left field, I really like the way it’s presented and I think all points made are valid. Obviously, you can’t please every fan that wishes we could operate like a big market team, but thinking within the context of the situation is key here, as well as bringing solid arguments to justify your position.

by David OhNo on Jan 18, 2009 3:17 PM MST reply actions 0 recs