How much Cook is left in the kitchen?

by Rox Girl on Jan 18, 2009 8:54 AM MST in Thoughts From Up High Comment 14 comments

Okay, so while my BTB Community WAR project post kicked off a solid discussion about how much projected playing time we could count on from Garrett Atkins and Ryan Spilborghs, some of the other possible points of discussion were left in the dust. Lesson to me: compartmentalize. So I'm going to separate out some of the other bullet points so we can give them the consideration they deserve, starting with what appears to me the one CHONE projection which seems overly negative. The one that projects Aaron Cook to allow 5.09 runs per game (4.7 earned), more than he has since his second season in the big leagues in 2003.

Aaron Cook

#28 / Pitcher / Colorado Rockies

Height: 6-3

Weight: 215

Bats: R

Throws: R

Born: Feb 08, 1979

There could be reason to suspect a fall back from Cook, among them a second half in 2008 that showed him to be exactly the kind of pitcher that CHONE projects:

Split	ERA
1st Half	3.57
2nd Half	4.71

What was odd about the second half spike is that while one aspect of run prevention, Cook's HR rate, improved considerably (12 HR's given up in the first half, one in the second) his strikeout rate took a dip from 11.8% to 9.1%. Think about what that meant in the bigger picture: fewer hits off of contact were leaving the ballpark with the dipping HR rate, while at the same time more balls were being put into play with the dipping K rate. Cook was shifting into a more defensive dependent mode of pitching, and at first glance, his defense seems to have let him down.

However, that's not the complete story, closer scrutiny of Cook's batted ball data in the second half reveals one glaring reason why hitters would suddenly find it much easier to get base hits off of him:

Month	Line Drive %
April	15.5
May	13.7
June	25.0
July	18.5
August	26.7
September	28.6

The average line drive rate for the National League last season was just barely over 19%. Cook for his career has averaged 19.4%. For three of the last four months of the season, Cook was well over what we would expect from a major league pitcher. The question we have to ask in projecting him for next season is why. Was it simply bad luck? Was it just a matter of fatigue? His fastball velocity wouldn't indicate this, as he was actually throwing harder in August and September than he was in April and May. Or is there something far more troubling afoot here that would indicate a problem that will carry over into 2009?

I want to hear what the Purple Row community thinks about what we could expect from Aaron in 2009. For a reference point, his 2009 projections from CHONE, Bill James and Marcel each predict him to go 182 innings. CHONE apparently proects the trouble with his line drive rate to continue, as it gives him a BABIP of .325 versus .307 and .303 for the other two. CHONE, as I mentioned in the first paragraph sees his ERA at that 4.70 mark, while James says 4.34, and Marcel 4.10.

via media.rockymountainnews.com

Who's more correct here?

Poll

Where do you see Aaron Cook's ERA winding up in 2009?

Below 4.00, he'll be just as solid as the last two seasons.

27 votes

4.00 to 4.25, a little off his peak, but still very effective.

57 votes

4.26 to 4.50, he should be a solid mid-rotation starter this year.

25 votes

4.51 to 5.00, he's sliding, might just be a bottom of the rotation pitcher now.

4 votes

Over 5.00, Cook is cooked.

6 votes

119 votes | Poll has closed

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Comments

Watching Cookie last year

I got the feeling he was trying to hard. As the season went south, it seemed to me watching Cook pitch that he was trying to win 3 games every time he took the mound. He threw hard, and over threw pitches, especially his sinker, and slider. 2 pitches you can’t over throw. His sinker stunk, but didn’t sink (I was waiting to use this line!) You see the “over throw” in his fast ball velocity increasing. That is not “fatigue” though it might show up this year. That is a problem between the ears.

In fact wasn’t there something about sinker ball pitchers actually do better when they are tired and fatigued do do the movement of the sinker?

"Suck it monkeys, the Rockies will win this year", Rox Girl 1-11-2009

by Redhawk on Jan 18, 2009 9:06 AM MST reply actions 0 recs

Agree with the "trying too hard" comment

And I think everyone on the team fell into this category to some extent. After going to the WS in ‘07 and the beginning of the ’08 season getting off to a less than stellar start, everyone began to press somewhat IMO. Everyone tried to show that ’07 wasn’t a fluke.

Pitching faltered, hitting with RISP was awful, injuries started taking their toll. Then season spun horribly out of control.

We’ve got some decent talent on this team. Regardless of what all the gurus’ stats say, I expect a rebound in ’09 even with the absence of Matt. Especially in the NL West.

by pedalpusher on Jan 18, 2009 9:25 AM MST up reply actions 0 recs

Cook was injured in the second half of the season...

The first half Cook showed up with a sinker that was dancing. All of his pitches had movement on them. Actually going back to the World Series, Cook looked good. Then the second half he dropped some velocity and his pitches weren’t as lively. He never has been that durable, and the Rockies relied on him too much last year. Cook can be dominant, but he’s not durable.

Keepin' warm by the hot stove season.

by Charlie77 on Jan 18, 2009 9:32 AM MST up reply actions 0 recs

Fatigue gets my vote

Cook had only reached 200 innings once in his 6 year career before 2008, and he averaged only 137 per season in his 5 full years leading up to 2008.

The club really leaned on him, and he just wore down.

by Andrew T. Fisher on Jan 18, 2009 2:07 PM MST reply actions 0 recs

Defense will determine who is right

Be it Marcel’s projected 4.10 ERA or CHONE’s 4.70.

An important point to note is that James and CHONE see Cook’s FIP at 4.24, while Marcel’s comes in at 4.05, so all three systems basically have similar expectations for Cook.

If I was to be concerned with Cook’s rates, I’d be more inclined to watch the GB, to make sure it doesn’t dip again. His 55.9 rate was the lowest of his career, granted it was only 1.7% lower than his career average. If it takes another near 2% dip, though, he becomes more reliant on a strike out rate that just won’t get high enough.

The difference in ERA will be dependent on who plays behind Cook. The first big need to counteract a slide in performance of Cook will be the return of ’07 Tulo. While Tulo was still solid defensively last season, the leg injury played a key role in his lessened range, and it bore out in his +/- rate by around 20 runs. A healthy Tulo will lead this category again, but what about his keystone mate? Barmes can play a pretty good ’07 Matsui in the field, but as has been discussed this off-season, he may face a tough task to repeat his ’08 offensive performance. The other question is how much time Atkins sees on the field. Garrett was a minus at both positions he played last year, while both Helton and Stewart are pluses defensively (though not at the caliber of either Tulo or Barmes). At the worst, Barmes would likely platoon on days Cook pitches, but if Hurdle wants to help Cook reach a similar level in ERA, he would be wise to given Atkins the day off when Aaron takes the hill.

by David OhNo on Jan 18, 2009 3:49 PM MST reply actions 0 recs

I agree somewhat,

I think the defensive alignment on Cook pitching days needs to be Helton/Baker, Barmes, Tulo, Stewart. This is probably also true of Marquis’ starts and to some extent Jimenez.

However, I really think the dip in Cook’s GB rates is the same thing I’m talking about, as the non line drive FB rate stayed the same, so the two issues appear completely inter-related. It means that he was getting just a bit to much of the plate and not enough sink at the end of the year. Looking closely at CHONE’s numbers, I can’t tell for sure if they really do see the same thing as the others. Jimenez’s CHONE projected FIP is 4.35, his ERA projection, 4.34. JDLR’s FIP is 4.63, but his ERA 4.67. Francis’ FIP is 4.40, his ERA 4.58. For some reason Cook’s BABIP is spiking way beyond everybody else’s, and I can’t quite fathom that this is purely a projected defensive deficiency in his case.

by Rox Girl on Jan 18, 2009 4:20 PM MST up reply actions 0 recs

I don't know

how much of an effect the second half of the season had on Cook’s BABIP but over the course of the season he led the NL in hits allowed and was third in the Majors. While he gave up a lot of hits he kept his pitch counts low, for the most part, and got out of innings by inducing more ground balls. I feel that if he keeps this trend up his BABIP will be consistent with last year, or lower if Tulo gets his range back, and thus all of the other statistics will be lower than the current projections.

"People ask me what I do in winter when there's no baseball. I'll tell you what I do. I stare out the window and wait for spring." ~Rogers Hornsby
JFK

by jrockies on Jan 18, 2009 4:55 PM MST up reply actions 0 recs

Helton

Helton probably shouldn’t be playing first base coming off of back suregery for a ground ball pitcher. Giver 1b to a young guy.

by lizardlad01 on Jan 18, 2009 6:23 PM MST reply actions 0 recs

Do you have a young guy in mind?

I ask this because I still believe Helton to be the best defensive first baseman we have. JoKo is not quite as slick with the glove and I do not know if his bat speed and in game adjustments are major league tools. Garret Atkins has been regularly discussed on this site since Holliday was traded. He has holes in his glove at both positions he plays and his bat is decreasing, although if he is more patient this year he should rebound. Atkins should be the guy the Rockies turn to, until he is traded, to fill in for Helon when he is sitting once or twice a week though. Baker and Hawpe are the other 1b options and neither have had significant time there lately to show that they can play defensively.

"People ask me what I do in winter when there's no baseball. I'll tell you what I do. I stare out the window and wait for spring." ~Rogers Hornsby
JFK

by jrockies on Jan 18, 2009 6:58 PM MST up reply actions 0 recs

Young guy

I don’t have any particular young guy in mind but I like the idea of having Hawpe at first and taking Atkins out at third and replacing him with Stewert/Quintilla whomever is better defensively.

by lizardlad01 on Jan 18, 2009 7:10 PM MST up reply actions 0 recs

Hawpe

Putting Hawpe at 1B isn’t a defensive boost in the sense that he’s good at 1B, but it’s moving his glove from RF where it’s downright terrible and putting it somewhere it can’t do as much damage.

Follow me on Twitter! http://www.twitter.com/rockiesmagicnum

by Andrew Martin on Jan 19, 2009 12:17 AM MST up reply actions 0 recs

By the way...

Si.com’s Colorado Rockies page links to this article.

Which, incidentally, is how I came to the Row.

Eschew Obfuscation!

by Jeff Aberle on Jan 19, 2009 1:09 AM MST reply actions 0 recs

I originally found the Snakepit

through Jon Weisman’s NL West blog for SI.

"Of course, it’s downright frightening to imagine how two Adam Dunns would turn the double play." - Joe Posnanski

by DbacksSkins on Jan 19, 2009 9:19 AM MST up reply actions 0 recs

Article On Fox Sports

During the Race to the World Series.

"People ask me what I do in winter when there's no baseball. I'll tell you what I do. I stare out the window and wait for spring." ~Rogers Hornsby
JFK

by jrockies on Jan 19, 2009 2:10 PM MST up reply actions 0 recs