The Colorado Rockies and wRAA, 2007-2008

by Russ Oates on Jan 19, 2009 6:00 AM MST in Thoughts From Up High

Rox Girl has used wOBA (weighted On-base Average) in some of her recents pieces. For those that don't know what wOBA is, it is, as FanGraphs informs us, "a solid, context-neutral statistic that values hitting properly." FanGraphs has also recently added wRAA to its pages. It stands for weighted Runs Above Average, and this article can tell you a bit about how it is calculated. I'll just say here that it is derived in part from wOBA, a reason I mention that stat.

FanGraphs has these two stats for every season since 1974, though I'm only concerned with the last two seasons.

	2008
Player	wRAA	wRAA2
Matt Holliday	46	39
Brad Hawpe	23.9	17.5
Chris Iannetta	21	16.4
Ryan Spilborghs	12.8	9.7
Todd Helton	5.6	1.5
Clint Barmes	5.4	-0.8
Garrett Atkins	4.9	-2.6
Ian Stewart	4.7	1.3
Jeff Baker	3.3	-0.4
Seth Smith	2.1	0.7
Dexter Fowler	-4.2	-4.5
Troy Tulowitzki	-5.4	-10.1
Jayson Nix	-7.7	-8.4
Willy Taveras	-12.4	-18.5
Ubaldo Jimenez	-16.6	-17.4

The second column, wRAA2, is FanGraph's "Batting" in their Value section and is adjusted for park factors. When adjusting for park factors, Garrett Atkins really suffers, as he goes from a wRAA of 5 to almost -3. Ian Stewart basically made the same contribution as Atkins did without park factors involved and was a net positive when park factors were included. Jeff Baker and Clint Barmes suffered similar fates as Atkins, but, as you most likely noticed, every player listed (and not) became a victim with the inclusion of park factors.

Matt Holliday's 46 wRAA was the fourth best in the NL and his wRAA2 moved him down to seventh. Ryan Ludwick came in just ahead of Holliday in the last category at 41.2. We'll return to Matt Holliday in a little bit with the 2007 table.

Willy Taveras--uh, yeah, that' self-explanatory. And Jimenez is on there if you want a chuckle.

Join me after the jump to see the 2007 table.

	2007
Name	wRAA	wRAA2
Matt Holliday	58.2	49.9
Todd Helton	39.2	31.3
Brad Hawpe	29.7	22.6
Garrett Atkins	21	13.1
Troy Tulowitzki	17.1	9.2
Ryan Spilborghs	8.8	5.3
Willy Taveras	4.3	-0.4
Kaz Matsui	3.8	-1.5
Seth Smith	2.1	2
Cory Sullivan	-1.4	-3.2
Ian Stewart	-2.1	-2.6
Clint Barmes	-3.6	-4
Ubaldo Jimenez	-4.9	-5.2
Chris Iannetta	-5.4	-8
Jeff Baker	-6.2	-8.1

As we note again, there is a noticeable dropoff when park factors are taken into account. Still, that's quite a turnaround from 2007 to 2008 for Iannetta. And what a dropoff for Atkins. There are other observations and points to make, but I'll leave that to you guys and gals.

But I do want to spend a moment on Holliday here. Holliday's unadjusted wRAA was tops in the NL, almost five full runs ahead of David Wright (53.3) and 27.2 ahead of 2007 NL MVPJimmy Rollins. You know who was ahead of Rollins, too? Todd Helton. With wRAA2, Holliday moves down to third (behind David Wright (55.5) and Chipper Jones (52)), but still ahead of Rollins' 28.6. Just adding to that argument.

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Comments

Interesting to see

how much Helton, Atkins and Tulo’s drop off really affected the offense.

by Hizilla on Jan 19, 2009 7:44 AM MST reply actions

I like this stat

27.2 ahead of 2007 NL MVPJimmy Rollins.

Oh I will forever be bitter about that. I threw something at my TV every time an analyst tried to argue Rollins was easily the best choice.

wRAA sets the star players apart far more than the traditional stats. For instance, Holliday’s .340 batting average in 2007 just didn’t set him apart enough from Jimmy Rollins’ .296. Or his .301 road average against Rollins’ .293. Or his 1.012 OPS over Rollins .875. Oi. If those voting only saw wRAA

by Andrew T. Fisher on Jan 19, 2009 8:15 AM MST reply actions

Fortunately for Rollins

He also plays defense in a premium defensive position – whether he is a premium defender is a whole different debate. Anyway my point is that wOBA only shows value in one half of the game, and Rollins was much more valuable than Matt in the other half (although I don’t think nearly enough to make up for the offensive year Matty had.

by Hizilla on Jan 19, 2009 8:50 AM MST up reply actions

I could accept that argument...if

1) Matty played like ManRam defensively in left. But he had the 2nd best FLG% in the NL, was tops in Zone Rating and recorded a +9 Bill James +/-, good for 8th in MLB. He was an above average fielder in his own right.

2) Shortstops similarly got preferential treatment in past voting. The only middle IFs to win an MVP in the NL since Sandberg a quarter century ago were Jeff Kent (not bc of defense) and Barry Larkin. Interesting how Larkin and Rollins both won because they played a premium defensive position when a Rockies player with monster stats finished second. That whole defensive argument didn’t help Tulo beat Braun either….

by Andrew T. Fisher on Jan 19, 2009 1:07 PM MST up reply actions

Touche

I don’t disagree with anything you have here, although the reality of each player’s defensive value, and the public perception of each differed dramatically that year. Like you said, it didn’t help Tulo win ROY or a Gold Glove, when he was clearly the best SS in the NL defensively in a ‘premium defensive position’ (yes i’m quoting myself to contradict myself). I guess I do agree with you that offensive stats are discounted by the general public (voting public) when it comes to players that play 81 games a year in Coors. I imagine those same voters would be shocked to find out that Coors was 3rd in Park Factor and 5th in HR Park Factor that year (yes I understand the level of unreliability involved in these stats).

by Hizilla on Jan 19, 2009 9:53 PM MST up reply actions

BUT ROLLINS

HAD LIKE 20 OF EVERYTHING, LOLZ

"Of course, it’s downright frightening to imagine how two Adam Dunns would turn the double play." - Joe Posnanski

by DbacksSkins on Jan 19, 2009 10:16 AM MST up reply actions

End of season baseball awards

are stupid. Let me qualify that a bit more. They’re stupid in practice, theoretically, they’re good. I think I have about two seasons left until I’m completely disenchanted with those things.

by Resolution on Jan 19, 2009 8:49 AM MST reply actions

Popularity contest.

It almost always overvalues players from larger markets (see Red Sox, Boston and Yankees, New York); and undervalues players that have great years in smaller markets/poor teams.

by Hizilla on Jan 19, 2009 8:51 AM MST up reply actions