Thursday Rockpile: Through the Looking Glass with Jabberwocky

by Jeff Aberle on Jan 22, 2009 1:40 AM MST

Hey Rockies fans! I'm trying a slightly different format for this Rockpile, one that I've seen on a few link-driven blog posts before. Links, with basic information, then my personal opinion on the topic. Rocket science, right? Here we go...

I know that this has already been discussed to some extent, but the RMN's Jack Etkin takes a closer look at the Garrett Atkins arbitration situation. Etkin's article also shows the salaries of the other arb-eligibles that have already signed. That article touches on the similarities between Atkins and Justin Morneau, and Etkin expands on this point in a separate blog post.

My take: Is Atkins really comparable to Justin Morneau, who won an MVP award in 2006 (that should have went to Joe Mauer) and finished second in 2008? Looking at the hitting stats, Morneau's career line (281/.348/.498/.846) is a little better than Garrett's (.298/.360/.474/.834), especially if you acknowledge or are a proponent of park factors. Add in defensive metrics, which I admittedly know little about, and Morneau is bound to come out ahead too. But the point is that the comparison is far from unrealistic. What do you think Rowbots? Is Atkins worth Justin Morneau money (six years, $80 million)? Given the Ian Stewart situation and Atkins' mini-regression the last few years, I'd say no, but I'm interested in what the Row thinks.

According to Etkin, it appears that Carlos Gonzalez is on his way to join the Rockies from Venezuela.

My take: As has been discussed, much for Dan O'Dowd is riding on the short term success of CarGon, Greg Smith, and Huston Street. After all, Matt Holliday leaves big shoes to fill. In my opinion, the Oakland three are more than able to create over their years with the Rockies more value than Holliday would have in 2009, but Dealin' Dan had better hope they do or he'll be out of a job. A bigger part of the question is where Gonzalez ends up playing when he does make it to the show. Do the Rockies stick him in his natural center field position, or does he supplant Hawpe and/or Spilly next year in left/right in favor of Dexter Fowler?

Troy Renck at the Denver Post gives us a Josh Fogg update. Basically, the Rockies have an open invitation to Fogg, but he sees the sheer amount of competition for a roster spot and will weigh his options.

My take: There's been way too much Josh Fogg talk considering the depth we already will have in camp for the rotation/swing man. After all, how many long men can a bullpen have? To be honest, the Rockies don't really need Fogg unless they want another AAA starter.

For those of you with ESPN Insider access, Keith Law has his 2009 minor league organizational rankings. He has the Rockies right in the middle, 16th out of 30, but second in the division. Other divisional rankings were Giants (9th), Padres (19th), Dodgers (20th), and D-Backs (24th). Here's what he says:

There's a little more here than meets the eye, between under-the-radar prospects and guys like Hector Gomez (a toolsy infielder who missed this past season due to a fractured shinbone and Tommy John surgery) and Casey Weathers (who is about to miss 2009 due to his own blown-out elbow).

My take: Law's analysis is often pretty spot-on (see Morales, Franklin), so I put a lot of stock in his opinion. With this list, Law gave a much larger weight to higher-impact players as opposed to organizational depth (which is more of a strength for us). Unfortunately, Law doesn't really give me much to go on here as he is talking about all 30 teams, not mentioning our best prospects or his opinions of them. His top 100 prospects rankings to be posted later today at ESPN will doubtless shed some light on our blue chippers. To be honest though, I'm not sure if his rankings of the rest of the division are accurate as I'm not familiar with their depth or impact prospects.

And finally, a quote for those of you who don't like the designated hitter one bit:

The designated hitter rule is like letting someone else take Wilt Chamberlain's free throws. ~Rick Wise, 1974

Eat. Drink. Be Merry. But the above FanPost does not necessarily reflect the attitudes, opinions, or views of Purple Row's staff (unless, of course, it's written by the staff [and even then, it still might not]).

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I'd really appreciate any feedback...

formatting in particular. Is this easier to read than my last Rockpile?

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by Jeff Aberle on Jan 22, 2009 1:43 AM MST reply actions

I really like the format of this Rockpile.

Short concise talking points to get the conversation started. My only suggestion is not to load it up with too many discussion points in any one Rockpile. This one really felt comfortable to get into the flow.

by pedalpusher on Jan 22, 2009 9:48 AM MST up reply actions

Thanks.

I do tend to load it up with as many links/talking points as I can to facilitate discussion…diversification, I guess. However, it does have the problem of making a focused discussion difficult.

My problem this time was that I didn’t have a ton to say about any one link so I kind of spread it around.

Eschew Obfuscation!

by Jeff Aberle on Jan 22, 2009 9:56 AM MST up reply actions

I like the format

and I like this type of information for a Rockpile. I want to hear Rockies news and stuff from sources I might not be aware of. Granted in January that news is going to be rare.

"Suck it monkeys, the Rockies will win this year", Rox Girl 1-11-2009

by Redhawk on Jan 22, 2009 6:38 AM MST reply actions

Atkins equals Morneau?

ok….I’m one of Garrett’s biggest supporters here, and think he is under-rated by almost all on the Row….but even I don’t think he equals Morneau (who, is a little over-rated). Morneau has bigger power numbers to go with is average.

BUT this comparison, shows my point, in that Atkins is not the bum so many portray him as. I think he will have real trade value, especially to an AL team who might hide his glove at the DH some night.

"Suck it monkeys, the Rockies will win this year", Rox Girl 1-11-2009

by Redhawk on Jan 22, 2009 6:43 AM MST reply actions

I'm not necessarily saying Atkins=Morneau,

just that Atkins is closer to the AL MVP than you might think. Atkins’ agent seems to believe that Morneau is the benchmark for Atty’s salary, so I had to investigate.

I’d say that if it does go to arbitration that the Rockies would win. I’d say their 6.65 million is just about right for someone with Atkins’ stats and experience.

Eschew Obfuscation!

by Jeff Aberle on Jan 22, 2009 8:00 AM MST up reply actions

I think you're right...

I think Atkins’ and his agent will probably cave at the midpoint ($7.3 million) but the question is whether the Rockies would be willing to go that high. I think they have the stronger case, but maybe that $650 grand isn’t worth the risk.

by Rox Girl on Jan 22, 2009 8:12 AM MST up reply actions

The other risk...

is that by taking Atkins to arbitration over 650k—a long, painful process, or so I’ve heard, the Rockies lose their leverage/good will on multi-year talks with Atkins, should they be pursuing that route.

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by Jeff Aberle on Jan 22, 2009 8:15 AM MST up reply actions

They don't want Multi Year

Everyone knows he’s being traded this season once Helton shows he can stay healthy. He isn’t a long term option, he’s already on the decline.

Follow me on Twitter! http://www.twitter.com/rockiesmagicnum

by Andrew Martin on Jan 22, 2009 9:09 AM MST up reply actions

Well I for one hope...

that he comes out of his mini-slump/decline what-have-you in time to provide us both on-field and trade value, because he really does have some excellent numbers and really could be a productive hitter in our lineup for the next few years if we were to go the multi-year route. His “decline” can yet be corrected.

And my opinion is that Helton won’t stay healthy, so they’ll probably hold on to him at least until after this season, record-pending of course.

Eschew Obfuscation!

by Jeff Aberle on Jan 22, 2009 9:17 AM MST up reply actions

I also like Atkins alot

But kind of feel that he’s a luxury that the team doesn’t need at this point.
I’m completely fine holding on to him to see how Helton does with his back. I just hope that holding on to Atkins doesn’t cost Stewart’s development, or the defense with Atkins at 3rd and Stewie somewhere else.
An mlb.com article about the Twins mentions the Rockies demands from the Twins for Garrett at being Slowey, Span and a prospect – which is absolutely ridiculous for 2 years of Garrett at 6-8Mil per.
I was a proponent of them flipping Atkins for a Nick Blackburn/Glen Perkins type earlier in the offseason, and still wouldn’t have a problem with a deal like that as a fan. But – at this point it seems like the team would be better off seeing what they have as far as 4th/5th starters go than trying to add another one. I guess if Helton shows up healthy I think I would rather them trade Atkins for a higher ceiling pitching prospect – maybe Mulvey or Gutierrez (although either of these two might be a tad optimistic to expect).

by Hizilla on Jan 22, 2009 9:10 AM MST up reply actions

The problem is

that Atkins has ruined what would have been a great plan. Had he continued at his 2006, we could have had a solid haul for him this offseason. Unless Stewart becomes a very good LF or 2B, we’re forced to sell low, because even getting a prospect will be more beneficial to the team longterm than facilitating this logjam further.

by Andrew T. Fisher on Jan 22, 2009 9:21 AM MST up reply actions

Move Atkins to LF

3B is a far more premium defensive position than LF. If Atkins isn’t playing 1B, play him in LF and bench Smith (this is assuming Smith doesn’t put up a .290/.360/.470 line consistently).

Follow me on Twitter! http://www.twitter.com/rockiesmagicnum

by Andrew Martin on Jan 22, 2009 9:42 AM MST up reply actions

nah man

Atkins needs to focus on hitting to boost his stock. Moving him to LF would be too distracting.

Also, Morneau’s biggest edge over Atkins is he’s a year and a half younger…

by Resolution on Jan 22, 2009 4:43 PM MST up reply actions

Atkins and Barmes/Baker for Brian Roberts of Baltimore...

would be my dream scenario, though it is but a dream. After all, Atkins would instantly upgrade either their DH-3B spots and Barmes/Baker provides them a serviceable second baseman. For the Rockies, Roberts would fill in the leadoff hole and the 2b hole while clearing out some of our infield detritus.

Imagine this lineup:
Roberts 2B
Helton 1B
Iannetta C
Hawpe RF
Spilly CF
Stewart 3B
Tulo SS
Smith LF
Pitcher

Best. Lineup. Ever. L/R alternating, OBP, power, some speed, defense…I love it. Make the deal O’Dowd!

Angelos would probably never go for it though, and Roberts has a limited no-trade too. Oh well, I can only dream.

Eschew Obfuscation!

by Jeff Aberle on Jan 22, 2009 9:24 AM MST up reply actions

My only problem with that lineup

is that the meat of the order would be very inconsistent. Iannetta can’t catch every day. Perhaps he could spell Helton when he needs a break, but you’d still have your #3 hitter out of the lineup 20% of the time. Also, Hurdle likes to drop Hawpe in the lineup against LHP. So your 3 and 4 hitters would change a lot. It’s a great lineup, and I might be a little picky here (as I don’t have a better configuration for those 8 players) but it’s something to consider.

If I were Roberts, I’d welcome a trade from a cellar team in a hopeless division to a team who plays in a hitter’s haven, a year removed from the World Series, playing in a very winnable division. But that’s me, and I’m not Brian Roberts.

by Andrew T. Fisher on Jan 22, 2009 9:34 AM MST up reply actions

I guess you could flip Iannetta and Spilly if you wanted...

and Hawpe and Stewart on LHP days. When Torrealba catches, he goes right to the 8 hole of course.

If the Rockies could/would pull this off, I could foresee a division title for us.

Eschew Obfuscation!

by Jeff Aberle on Jan 22, 2009 10:15 AM MST up reply actions

But Clint Hurdle

Still doesn’t know Ian Stewart can hit LHP…

by Andrew T. Fisher on Jan 22, 2009 2:33 PM MST up reply actions

And

Roberts is a FA after 2009…I’m not sure the team is quite in Win Now mode, although the peices you mention won’t be around much longer either, and agree – Angelos would have none of that.

by Hizilla on Jan 22, 2009 9:50 AM MST up reply actions

I'd like to see

Atkins and Street flipped for a kickass prospect, whoever that may be…

by Resolution on Jan 22, 2009 4:45 PM MST up reply actions

Organization is always a plus

imo. Adding quotes, links and bold makes it a lot easier on the eyes and more legit looking than a block of black text. Good work again.

Atkin sis absolutely not worth Morneau money, and no one will give it to him. He’s a player that should be hitting his prime but is rapidly falling apart in several offensive areas. He’s a terrible defender. He forgot how to take a walk. And the ultimate strike against any hitter who wants to test the open market – he played at Coors Field.

by Andrew T. Fisher on Jan 22, 2009 9:39 AM MST reply actions