Sluggers, and hitting with RISP

by deacs on Jan 22, 2009 12:10 PM MST Comment 5 comments

This is in further comment to FlyAway's comment in the Thursday Rockpile:

In my opinion the Rockies faulure as a team with runner in scoring postion is what spelled their offensive doom in 2008. Ianetta did well with RISP and I think Barmes did OK. However, I have been unable to find that stat, if anyone can help me find that I would appreciate it.

For understanding the necessity and value of a slugger, htiting with RISP cannot be underestimated. And the best way to do measure whether someone is a slugger (without just counting HRs) would probably be to measure SLG with RISP. The best way to measure the necessity of a slugger would be OPS with RISP. A combined high OPS with RISP for middle of the order hitters lessens the necessity for a true "slugger." If one of the first or second hitters can get on base, and either a) gets to second by a hit or steal, or b) is advanced into scoring position by the third hitter (either by b1: an out, or b2: a hit or walk, a walk generally being as good as a single and better than a SAC), that brings up the 4th hitter with a man on 2nd or 3rd with one or two outs. Having 1 and 2 hitters with a good OBP, and hitters in the 3-5 spots with good OPS (and thus the ability to advance the 1 or 2 hitters with a walk or a hit) will eliminate the need for a Manny or Ortiz-esque slugger.

With that in mind, here are the 2007/2008 OPSs with RISP for the Rockies hitters with an established level of power (20+HRs):

Atkins: .869/.680 (PA: 219//215)
Hawpe: .989/.893 (PA: 194/165)
Helton: .946/.825 (PA: 214/98)
Holliday: .947/.867 (PA: 226/173)
Tulowitzki: .778/.724 (PA:199/123)

There are caveats to this (high BABIP, etc, for some), but I don't think sample size really matters for this. There is no way of knowing how many opportunites there will be year to year, and there aren't going to be that many. Even if they do matter, everybody but Tulo and Helton in '08, had over 150, which is a healthy sample for this type of situational statistic.

This also accentuates what is obvious to Rockies fans: in 2008, the 1-2 hitters did a terrible job compared to Taveras/Matsui in 2007. Also, Helton had a .491 OBP (!) with RISP in 2007, pushing runners along and creating a lot of extra RBI opportunities for Atkins and Tulo. Given their high OPS in both years, Hawpe and Holliday combining for 82 fewer appearances with RISP is horrible for the team. Some of that is situational, and some of that is Hurdle's failure to manage the lineup. The players didn't help themselves with 54 to 189 point drops in OPS from '07 to '08.

For a glimpse of a team that was balanced and successful, the '08 3-5 hitters for the TB Rays:

Upton: .811 (179 PAs)
Pena: .940 (202 PAs)
Longoria: .783 (162 PAs)

The Rays scores 774 runs, the Rockies 747. Pena had the highest SLG with RISP at .524. Compare that to Holliday at .469, it can't account for 27 runs. One of the real differences was Atkins hitting 100 points worse than Longoria (comparing lowst OPSes) in 40 more PAs. Also, Upton got on base at a .400+ rate with RISP, giving the two top power guys another opportunity to drive in a runner.

This isn't to say that in a good lineup, one person couldn't be Hurclean and put the team on his back, as David Ortiz is percieved to do from time to time, and Manny appeared to do for the Dodgers after his trade. The 1-2 hitters matter a lot. Assuming they are equal, however, the trick is to have people who can hit or get on base with RISP over a season, not just hit 50 HRs.

Anyway, I don't know how this stacks up against the Dodgers post-Manny, or the Red Sox all year long, but for the Rockies, clearly the answer is having multiple hitters capable of getting on base at a good rate in the heart of the order. The team has tried the bomber mode (1993-1999) and the speed and small ball mode (2000-2006). Having one person crush HRs (and eat up payroll) doesn't matter that much for this team - kind of like the Reds with Dunn, or the Yankees with A-Rod. And speed and playing to win 1-run games doesn't help much either. People need to be able to get on base and hit, not necessarily hit HRs. So, if the Rockies have a repeat of 2007 it's going to have to happen with fewer HRs and higher OBPs, espcially from the 1-2 spot. And, with Holliday gone, Atkins is also going to have to hit a lot better with RISP.

Eat. Drink. Be Merry. But the above FanPost does not necessarily reflect the attitudes, opinions, or views of Purple Row's staff (unless, of course, it's written by the staff [and even then, it still might not]).

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It's so flukey though

The sample size even if it is 150 plate appearances is still somewhat small. Also, Hawpe and Holliday were on the DL in ’08 and not in ’07.

I think a lot of their failure to hit with RISP this past season was from pressure they put on themselves after being swept out of the World Series. Atkins had a huuuge drop, he’s very likely to rebound, and Todd Helton shouldn’t have a hard time being a quality player if his back is healthy. Tulo is probably the most interesting case because he seemed to try too hard early on last year as if he had something to prove (losing the world series, losing ROY, being a hard style gamer) and technically, this season he still has as much to prove.

by Resolution on Jan 24, 2009 3:28 PM MST reply actions

How do you fix it?

The problem seems to be more “hitting”, nevermind RISP. If you get the guys on base more, more RISP opportunities come up, etc.

It really seems to be an intangible thing. How do you practice hitting with RISP? Do you just yell at them more?

Follow me on Twitter! http://www.twitter.com/rockiesmagicnum

by Andrew Martin on Jan 24, 2009 11:26 PM MST reply actions

You put runners on base during batting practice. Obviously.

by Andrew T. Fisher on Jan 25, 2009 1:43 AM MST up reply actions

I can't tell if that's serious,

but that seems like the legitimate solution. I’ve never seen a practice, or read much about the drills, but I assume they do this. Assuming we all played sports at some level, we know that scenarios were constantly drilled into our heads: 2 on 1 in hockey or soccer, weak backhand in tennis, 2-minute drill in football. The overall hitting problems lie in having better producers in the 1-2 spots, not something that can be practiced, and better situational hitting, which can. And if there are 3-4 guys who hit well in the lineup, perhaps the solution is the coaching staff which one or two of those guys do the best in the situation and bat them 4th and 5th. Clearly, they did not do this last year.

I admit a lot of it is a factor of luck, as evidenced by Atkins weak BABIP with RISP in ‘08, but it seems there was something intangible lacking in those situations (especially since Atkins was so frequently up in those situations – hence the still heavy RBI total despite the poor performance). Maybe the solution is easy to grasp – swapping spots in the batting order, or situational practice. Where’s the guy commentator who played minor league ball?

by deacs on Jan 25, 2009 4:52 PM MST up reply actions

That is the big quesiton

You can look at stats all day, but I think one of the biggest factors is not something that you can’t find in the box score. During the run in 2007 there was a mind set and a belief that guys were going to come through. There for a while it seemed like every night it was a new guy. Baker, Seth Smith, Torrealba, Matsui etc. not just the big bats in the middle of the lineup. There were small examples of that last year like the July 4th game against the Marlins and Quantanilla’s walk-off homer, but for the most part it just seemed like nobody really believed the Rockies would get the clutch hits. What was the difference? I don’t know. For the most part it was the same group of guys. I just think they came into the season with so many expectations and then they got smacked in the mouth early in the year by complacency, injuries and failures of so many of the guys they were counting on. Francis, U. Jimenez (in the beginning of the year), Morales, Corpas, Tulo, Jason Nix, Hirsh etc. etc. etc.. I think they started pressing really hard looking for that 20+ game run. Maybe a fresh start in 2009 will allow guys to get back to a mind set where they expect to come through with runners on. I hope so anyway.

What if the hokey pokey is what it is all about after all????

by FlyAway on Feb 6, 2009 7:20 PM MST up reply actions