Friday Rockpile: Tulo eager; Morales was hurt; Gonzalez meets Denver; Centerfield?
If you are anything like me, this time of year is almost torture. It has already been a long offseason, and Spring Training is just around the corner. But just around the corner means another three weeks. The team is starting to take shape, you can start to guess how the Rockies will do if everything goes right, or if everything goes wrong. You can point out the strengths and weaknesses of the team, and you can hope, but until then, there is nothing to do except replay the same scenarios over and over again in your head.
As far as hope goes, any Rockies fan is hoping for the 2007 Troy Tulowitzki, or at least not the one from April of 2008. In an article written by Troy Renck of the Denver Post, Tulowitzki seems to be eager to prove that he is the shortstop of his rookie year, the one who was robbed of the N.L. Rookie of the Year. Renck suggests at one point that Tulo is oozing confidence. As a Rockies fan, it is hard not to get excited about that statement. Tulo came into 2008 with something to prove, maybe to himself, that he was a great player, and that 2007 wasn't a fluke. Tulowitzki's performance is a huge determining factor in how the Rockies end up. Losing Holliday's bat means the rest of the lineup will need to step it up, and Tulowitzki will be asked to produce most likely from the 2-hole, a spot where he struggled in '08. If he can be on base, that means better pitches for Helton (if healthy) and Garrett Atkins. If Tulo can hit .280 with 20 home runs, and 90 RBI, along with his standard Gold Glove defense, the Rockies will be in good shape.
Another 2008 disappointment was top pitching prospect Franklin Morales. Most analysts suggested that Morales' problems were mental. However, In an article written by Thomas Harding from coloradorockies.com, Morales suggests that he was suffering lower back pain that was making it hard for him to crank his velocity to the usual upper 90's, therefore he was relying on his breaking pitches. What is most surprising about this revelation is that Morales says he never informed the team until after the season was over. Since then he has been recieving treatment and feeling better.
The Rockies gained a little wisdom with the Morales situation. Last year they put all of their eggs in one basket, banking on the fact that Morales and Ubaldo Jimenez would act like veterans, instead of young men in their early 20's, as ended up being the case early on. This season, a healthy Morales comes into Spring Training with plenty of competition for the 5th spot in the rotation. The front runner for this position is no doubtedly Jorge De La Rosa, who impressed everyone down the stretch. Morales will be battling De La Rosa and lefties Glendon Rusch and Greg Smith, as well as a host of others for that last spot.
Jack Etkin, in his blog for the Rocky Mountain News mentions that Carlos Gonzalez is on his way to Denver for the last day of the Rockies winter development program. The Rockies felt that it would be better for Gonzalez to play in the Venezualan playoffs and gain valuable expirience there, rather than the typical work done at the winter program. According to Etkin, Gonzalez hit .289 in the playoffs, while showing progress with his strikeout to walk ratio, something that was alarming in his short time in the big leagues with the A's. Gonzalez has the potential to be a superstar, and it seems as if the Rockies are handling him with extreme care in order to maximize his potential. It will be interesting to see where he ends up to start the season. If everything goes as planned, Gonzalez will be in Colorado Springs, but if he has a great spring and Seth Smith looks a little lost in centerfield, don't be surprised to see Gonzalez on the opening day roster.
That leads into the signing of Scott Podsednik. Podsednik did a great job in the roll that he held with the team last year and brought valuable competition to the clubhouse. He is a lefty off the bench with significant speed. As a non-roster invitee, he is nothing more than insurance in case Ryan Spilborghs or Seth Smith goes down with an injury, or to give more time in the Minors to Dexter Fowler. It should be interesting to see how centerfield shakes out for the Rockies. All signs point to Spilborghs being the starter with Seth Smith and Carlos Gonzalez getting an opportunity. However, Gonzalez looks to be the favorite for the left field spot. This may be another situation that depends on the health of Todd Helton. If Helton is healthy, he is at first base, with Garrett Atkins at third. That means, in order to get Ian Stewart's bat into the lineup, he may be forced to learn left field, something that he seems athletically capable of handling. This would bump Gonzalez into the centerfield competition, and possibly leave Podsednik looking for a job with another organization. It seems like a good problem to have.
Eat. Drink. Be Merry. But the above FanPost does not necessarily reflect the attitudes, opinions, or views of Purple Row's staff (unless, of course, it's written by the staff [and even then, it still might not]).
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I would love to hear what you think
Do you think I’m crazy for saying Carlos Gonzalez is the favorite in left field? I just don’t see Seth Smith as an everyday starter. What do you think?
It's so hard to project
with so many moving parts and potential outcomes, many of which are borne by Helton’s back. I would say that Smith has a spot on the 25-man roster and I believe Pods was signed with the intent of having him on there as well. I personally think Smith is the favorite in LF, which would likely necessitate getting CarGo playing time in the Springs. But there’s a lot to be determined by the FO and the ToddFather by and during Spring Training
by Andrew T. Fisher on Jan 23, 2009 12:21 AM MST up reply actions
What do you have against Smith?
I’m curious, because to get down to Gonzalez’s level in 2008 offensively would require a huge step backward for him, conversely it would require a huge step forward for CarGon to be better than him, and that’s assuming Smith himself hasn’t taken a step forward. On defense, Smith should be a small plus in left, CarGon a bigger plus, but not enough to make up for that offensive gap without much bigger gains than we were seeing from Carlos in Sacramento at the end of the year and Venezuela this winter. I think the burden would be for you to explain why Smith isn’t an everyday starter.
I'm not really excited about Smith
but I’m afraid, my personal bias is based solely on the fact that he’s not a starter now, and I just see him as a 4th OF, LH-PH type, because that’s what he did last year. Maybe it’s because he’s lacked “hype”. Carlos Gonzalez is the big time prospect, Smith is an organizational type guy
He’s only had 116 career AB’s. That is just too small to get any real feel for what he will do. His .259 BA last year doesn’t excite me. I guess I wanted to see “more” in his very limited AB’s. He’s had 25 Walks and his Slugging percentage is good however.
"Suck it monkeys, the Rockies will win this year", Rox Girl 1-11-2009
I think that's where a lot of people are coming from...
Smith lacked the hype of being a top 100 player, he’s always been good but not great as a prospect, and after so much time on the bench last season, a lot of Rockies fans seem to have that as his natural position. Of course it doesn’t help that the guy he’s replacing was a bit beyond what one can typically expect in a starting left fielder, so already Smith’s handicapped by an unfair comparison. I think before Rockies fans decide whether Smith will cut it or not, they have to realistically decide what an acceptable level of offensive production from the position would be. We’re not going to get Manny or Holliday production from that slot, there are only two guys in the league capable of that. Adam Dunn/Carlos Lee/Ryan Braun? Probably still asking for a bit much. 2008 Alfonso Soriano or Josh Willingham? This probably should be our target level for Smith as NL contender worthy. Is he capable of that? Probably at his peak he is. He might not have quite so high a slugging percentage or as many HR’s, but he’ll have considerably more doubles and a higher OBP than those two to make up the ground.
I think another thing that might have Rockies fans overlooking Seth is that last season all of his production came away from Coors Field. Those who attended home games (.126/.326/.371) and saw him did not see the same player as those that attended road games (.301/.363/.466) and saw him. There’s a lot of luck in both his home and away numbers in opposite directions, but considerably more bad luck in the home line than good luck in the road line.
I have nothing against Seth Smith...
I guess what I see is that his ceiling is quite a bit lower than Gonzalez’s. He may be more ready as of right now, I guess the way I see it, the more talented outfield would have Gonzalez. I think Seth Smith would be great in the roll that Ryan Spilborghs filled in the last couple of years.
Nice post, very easy to read...
On your followups, be strong. Don’t use maybe’s and I guess, a good writer backs their points with information. Don’t worry about the one mistake in the article, Rox Girl makes mistakes all the time and she doesn’t admit to them. Russ lets us know a few days later!
Keepin' warm by the hot stove season.
True enough...
I hate revisiting stuff after I’ve typed it sometimes, and sometimes I feel I just don’t have the time needed to prrofreed. Mistakes happen, we’re just looking for mostly clean, not squeaky clean.
Did you intentionally
misspell proofread?
"If we never try, we shall never succeed." - Abraham Lincoln
Purple Row - Covering all your Rockies needs!
The misspelling?
"If we never try, we shall never succeed." - Abraham Lincoln
Purple Row - Covering all your Rockies needs!
I am on the Smith bandwagon
myself. I closely followed him as a minor leaguer and I always though he was underrated, similar to Spilly. He seemed to hit no matter what league he was in and really took off after the laser surgery. I love his swing and I think he would be an adequate defensive LFer, if not above average defensively. From what I’ve read and heard about Gonzalez, he will be a downgrade as you’ve mentioned defensively, but I really like his offensive potential.
I have to admit, it also would be nice to see an OF w/ Gonzalez and Fowler down here in the Springs. So its a little bit of selfishness, but I just don’t think Gonzalez would be an overall upgrade at this point and I would like to see what Smith could do as a full year starter.
RG - This one's for you...
From the KLaw chat yesterday:
Brandon (Nashville, TN): Who, in the bottom 50, has the best chance to jump up into the top 10 (or 20) after this year?
SportsNation Keith Law: There are several candidates but both Dominic Brown and Michael Taylor came to mind right away. Others: Wilmer Flores, Freddie Freeman, Michael Main, Aaron Hicks, and – because I’m stubborn – Chris Nelson.
Nelson's probably being overlooked to some degree, but there are a variety of non-talent reasons why Law's making a risky bet
I think Hector Gomez might be the better candidate to make that kind of a jump in a similar circumstance. If I had to guess what Rockies prospects could find their way into the top 20 next season, I’d give Gomez the best odds, followed by Chacin, Rosario and Friedrich in that order and then Nelson.
For Nelson to make the top 20 next season, certain conditions have to be met. First, playing at Colorado Springs, he will have to put up some really eye-popping numbers to stand out above park/league effects, which probably means he’s not only going to have to be very good, but also somewhat lucky on top of that. Second, while that scenario’s playing out, we would have to expect a similarly strong performance from our middle infield in Denver, or else you would expect Nelson to get an early call-up and exhaust his rookie eligibility. He would then get a late season call-up and then continue to perform well with the Rockies, or be discounted out of the top 20. If all of this is happening, yeay us, the Rockies would win the NL West.
I’m glad Keith’s putting the word out not to overlook him, but the logic of him making an overall top 20 next season seems stretched a little. Not that I don’t hope for reality to bend just like this, though, don’t get me wrong.
Smith is the best.....
option we have for leftfield right now. CarGon is only “exciting” for his potential, but he hasn’t shown much either in the majors or the minors in the past year. I think he’s more of a top suspect than a top prospect. Smith, due to his plate discipline, could actually do as well for us as Brad Hawpe, but with a tad less power and better overall defense.
By the way, saying Pods and “great job” in the same sentence is a bit of an oxymoron.
Call me crazy...
but I think we would have been a better team running Podsednik out everyday over Taveras. Taveras was brutal.
by Sandlotkid8 on Jan 23, 2009 11:56 AM MST up reply actions
IMO you are exactly correct
Podsednik is certainly no worse than Taveras and probably better.
by pedalpusher on Jan 23, 2009 12:01 PM MST up reply actions
Taveras was an excellent CF glove
He played as an overall loss, but his glove is better than pods’
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by Andrew Martin on Jan 23, 2009 12:21 PM MST up reply actions
I disagree...
I can’t count the number of times that Taveras over ran balls that hit off the wall, or took terrible routes to fly balls. He made some diving, highlight reel catches, but most of the time it was because he got a horrible read off the bat. His defense was very overrated.
Well we've crossed a line
From “What everyone else says” to “What we’ve seen in person”
I’d try and cite UZR or something at you, but defensive metrics are flawed at best. UZR tries to take into account where a guy made a play, and how far he had to go, ie, does he have good range, etc.
Managers and baseball people all say Taveras has a good glove, but I know we’ve seen him let balls roll into the corner. The big thing will be distinguishing “Oops” to “Gaw I’m bad at this” in terms of what kind of mistake was made, you know?
I stand by “Taveras has an excellent CF glove” but I’m not gonna argue your stance because there’s nothing really to prove us right or wrong.
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by Andrew Martin on Jan 23, 2009 1:49 PM MST up reply actions
You're crazy.....
You asked for it, lol.
Pods is every bit the weak hitter than Taveras is. But at least Willy provided good CF defense and had as efficient an SB year as we’ve ever had. Pods doesn’t steal bases at that rate anymore and was never that efficient. His CF defense is so mediocre that he has been thought of as only a LF candidate by other teams.
Let's get this straight
If everything goes as planned, Gonzalez will be in Colorado Springs, but if he has a great spring and Seth Smith looks a little lost in centerfield, don’t be surprised to see Gonzalez on the opening day roster.
Everything we’ve seen (between Renck, Ringolsby, and Harding) is indicating that Spilborghs will be starting in CF, Hawpe in RF, and LF we here on the row have decided LF will be Smith, barring a surprise signing. Also sharing LF will be Ian Stewart, as if Helton’s healthy, they want to put the better glove into LF for some reason. We would have to see a lot of player movement/injury to really see Fowler or Gonzalez getting serious playing time. Everything I’ve read about Smith says he CAN play CF but he really isn’t built for it. He makes good reads but isn’t terribly fast.
Make sure you’re up to date on things like this before making commentary. The pitching material was good.
Gonzalez projects to be an Alfonso Soriano type, but slower, less power, but better defense. .280/.340/.480 with 10 HR, 40 2B, and 120K isn’t an unreal forecast of what he could look like, fully developed.
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Typo...
Should have read “…lost in left field…” and lost meaning, struggling to show capability as the everyday starter.
by Sandlotkid8 on Jan 23, 2009 11:45 AM MST up reply actions
I still think we should sign manny
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by Andrew Martin on Jan 23, 2009 12:22 PM MST up reply actions
Soriano Type?
I’m not sure what the similarities are between Seth Smith and Alfonso Soriano. 30 HR is a lot different than 10, and none of the projections for Smith don’t show that kind of doubles power, although it is a decent spot of power overall – along the lines of a Hawpe-type bat. But Smith doesn’t have 40/40 potential, and he also probably doesn’t have the best left field arm in the game (according to The Hardball Times). The idea of Soriano being a bad defender is passe. He takes some bad routes, but he still rates as an average defender.
I agree that Smith will likely (and should) be the starting LF, barring a surprise from Gonzales or a trade/signing, and if he matches the projections, it will be a good thing for the Rockies. He’ll provide good defense and a slightly below average bat.
Instead of all the money on Manny, how about trading Koshansky for Baltimore’s Luke Scott. He’s got a slightly better bat than Smith and Fangraphs seems to think he’d be a good defender.
Read it again.
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by Andrew Martin on Jan 23, 2009 12:34 PM MST up reply actions
Read what?
Ohhh, egg on my face. But still, that description doesn’t sound like Soriano at all. It sounds like… Denard Span or someone. Actually, I’d take Denard Span for Gonzales.
I was focusing on
The relatively low average and lack of plate discipline. Lots of K’s, not enough walks. Subtract 20 dingers a season and about 20-30 SBs and I think you have CarGon.
I wasn’t trying to say “LOL SORIANO BAD DEFS” but Gonzalez has projected to be Very Good, while Soriano is more or less average at his position.
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by Andrew Martin on Jan 23, 2009 12:47 PM MST up reply actions
Good eval on Smith though
You’ve clearly done your homework.
did Huff more or less fulltime DH for the O’s? If so hell yeah send them Koshansky for Scott
Although I STILL don’t think Koshansky’s as worthless as he seems, he just needs a shot.
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by Andrew Martin on Jan 23, 2009 12:52 PM MST up reply actions
True on the Gonzales-Soriano D
And if Gonzales runs the bases as or more efficiently than Soriano, he’ll gain even more value. I could see their maturity processes being very similar, with big power and speed coming early without the plate discipline. Soriano still swings freely, so if Gonzales doesn’t develop more power or more plate discipline (Soriano’s walked more than 40 times just twice in 8 seasons, but struck out 100+ in 7 of them) then he will not reach Soriano’s neighborhood in terms of value.
Orioles want Huff to play first and DH Luke Scott, which Fangraphs makes a case as being ridiculous. Huff was primarily the DH, and Millar the 1B last year. Millar is gone, so Huff plays first, Mora third. For the O’s, it’d probably make more sense to keep letting Huff DH and get a guy like Koshansky, who I agree has value – he could be a lot like Adam Dunn – but not in the Rockies’ system, for Luke Scott, who is older but in the same situation on the O’s roster.
Very fair look at Koshansky
He has a good eye, and while his power may have been CSprings inflated, he put up like a .240 IsoP in AA Tulsa.
Stupid logjam. We have so many unknowns and so many people trying to (or who should be) playing 1B.
Hey, speaking of comparing him to Dunn, what if we put JOE KOSHANSKY in LF?!
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by Andrew Martin on Jan 23, 2009 1:21 PM MST up reply actions
Other than taking time away from Smith and Stewart
what would his defense look like?
"People ask me what I do in winter when there's no baseball. I'll tell you what I do. I stare out the window and wait for spring." ~Rogers Hornsby
JFK
Koshansky
is roughly the same size as Holliday, although this article compares him physically to Richie Sexson, and I’m guessing he doesn’t have Holliday’s speed or quickness to the ball off the bat. But Dunn is 6-6, 275, so I guess that means anyone can play in the outfield.
When a team already has multiple prospective conversion processes going on (EY2, Stewart, Atkins to 1st, Barmes and Baker everywhere), maybe it should recognize it’s time to clear that up and restock at 2B, RF, and pitching. I know people aren’t crazy about him, but in addition to being a good match for Luke Scott, Koshansky is also a fair match for Aaron Heilman in Seattle.
Yep
I’m thinking he’d be better than Dunn. But not really.
Can you imagine an OF of Koshansky, Spills, and Hawpe?
KEEP THE BALL ON THE GROUND BOYS
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by Andrew Martin on Jan 23, 2009 1:51 PM MST up reply actions
They can do that.
I am not advocating JoKo in left but balls on the ground will happen with Cook, Jimenez and Marquis pitching.
"People ask me what I do in winter when there's no baseball. I'll tell you what I do. I stare out the window and wait for spring." ~Rogers Hornsby
JFK
I'm reading a book called 3 days in August..
Where Tony LaRussa is quoted saying, “Sometimes you’ve gotta sacrifice a little defense for offense.”
Keepin' warm by the hot stove season.
That was an interesting book
on just in depth baseball, day to day stuff.
"Suck it monkeys, the Rockies will win this year", Rox Girl 1-11-2009
I was thinking about..
Writing a book review on it as a fanpost. I read a lot of books, and I thought this would be a fun forum to discuss the baseball related ones.
Keepin' warm by the hot stove season.
For the slow season, I think it's a good idea
does this one count?:

"Suck it monkeys, the Rockies will win this year", Rox Girl 1-11-2009
Morales
So….Morales’s problems “were not mental”. They were that he was physically hurt and he was in denial and inexplicably decided not to tell anybody about it when help was readily available…
Right. Sounds like a mental problem to me.
Listen Franklin, I’m rooting for you, but you still need to get your head screwed on right.
Mental problem?
Sounds like a competitor to me, somebody who tried to pitch through pain to help his team and then didn’t make excuses for his struggles while during the course of the season.
Not that I don’t understand your side of this viewpoint, but give me the guy who hides an injury over the guy who exaggerates it and makes excuses based on it any day of the week. And if he really was pitching hurt, and if he was healthy while doing what he did in Venezuela this winter, that’s a good sign for what Franklin can give us in the future – maybe even in 2009 if necessary.
Staying on the sunny side of Blake Street since 1993.
MHCSports - Denver sports analysis from Denver sports fans
by Franchise26 on Jan 23, 2009 11:30 AM MST up reply actions
My phrasing there sucks
First, that ‘while’ is totally superfluous in the first paragraph. Secondly, I like “give me the guy who tries to gut out an injury” better than “give me the guy who hides an injury” – that’s more the spirit of what I was trying to get at.
Staying on the sunny side of Blake Street since 1993.
MHCSports - Denver sports analysis from Denver sports fans
by Franchise26 on Jan 23, 2009 11:31 AM MST up reply actions
Franklin is a competitor with an exciting future..
Especially if his injury explains last year. However he also has problems adjusting when things don’t go his way, or a monkey wrench gets thrown in the mix, ie. a balk call.
Keepin' warm by the hot stove season.
Looking at his numbers,
Seth Smith really needs the chance to establish himself in OF. Look at his minor league numbers. He’s never done anything particularly flashy but he’s actually performed consistently at every level. Last year his avg was low for the Rox but he had inconsistent playing time and his BABIP was .296 – whereas in the minors he was somewhere around .330. He also improved his walk rate a ton last season in AAA. There’s a chance that bb rate was artificially high but if he made any improvement, it will be a nice plus. He seems like he could hit .290/.360/.500 if he really adjusts. He also has somewhere close to 20hr power.
He needs to be given a shot. If we give him a shot and he’s a solid player and then CarGon and Fowler prove they’re ready, then we just have a sweet trade chip.
When I see smith
I see a .290/.360/.420 kind of hitter, good discipline, probably a +.020 to his SLG for Coors. He’s a good steady meat-and-potatoes kind of OF.
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by Andrew Martin on Jan 23, 2009 12:46 PM MST up reply actions
He
really needs to be given a chance this season. I don’t think there’s a real reason not to give him one. We can use a good OF or a solid trade chip and if he falls on his face well at least we have a decent amount of OF depth.
I think the only way
that he doesn’t get a chance to play every day is if CarGon or Fowler force their way into CF and Spilly slides over.
Smith....
The thing people also miss about Smith (and also Spilly, for that matter) is that he has fairly extreme splits. He does much better against RHPs than LHPs. By subbing him out against lefties, I think you could really increase his effectiveness.
you realize
we’re gonna end up with like 1 OF left to play against LHP right?
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by Andrew Martin on Jan 23, 2009 2:21 PM MST up reply actions
Baker, Spilly, Stewart should be an effective OF against LHP's
Jeff’s defense out there isn’t going to be any worse than anybody else’s and better than Hawpe’s. I think we’ve got it covered, actually.
You mean Baker, Spills, and ATKINS right
because dangit keep stew at 3B
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by Andrew Martin on Jan 23, 2009 3:12 PM MST up reply actions
Preferably, probably, but I'm just being realistic with the way the decision makers would go with this...
It could be that Stew makes a natural transition to left, he didn’t get too messed up switching to second last season.
Except Stewart is GOOD at 3B
If Tango knows anything, he’d be Very Good in LF.
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by Andrew Martin on Jan 24, 2009 11:12 PM MST up reply actions
Stewart at 3B
Stewart made some amazing plays at 3rd last year, but he also botched a lot of the routine ones. I think he is a good 3rd baseman, but I don’t think you are losing much shifting him to the outfield. He is more naturally athletic than a lot of those other guys.
He has good range
but his hands were lead. If he could get that down, he’d be a surefire positive.
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by Andrew Martin on Jan 24, 2009 11:13 PM MST up reply actions

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