Saturday Rockpile: Francis' shoulder iffy, but Helton progressing nicely

by Rox Girl on Jan 24, 2009 7:39 AM MST in Rockpile Comment 51 comments

The Rockies seemed to have a bad news/good news cycle over the last 24 hours, with word from Jack Etkin that Jeff Francis is behind other pitchers due to the shoulder problems that flared up last season, meanwhile as jrockies posted in a Fanshot, Troy Renck reports that Todd Helton is taking batting practice and will be ready to go in Spring Training, pushing Garrett Atkins to third base.

For the pitching, if Francis is not ready to go on opening day, one of the Rockies many young starters should be able to step up and take his slot in the rotation. Etkin points to Greg Smith, Jason Hirsh, Greg Reynolds and Franklin Morales as the pitchers to watch for Francis' spot, which would tend to confirm the feeling I've had that Jorge De La Rosa had the inside track to the previous fifth slot battle. Still, there's no way you can really put a positive spin on losing a productive piece to the puzzle as while all of the aforementioned pitchers have had their moments of promise, this does add a measure of uncertainty to what we might expect come April.

With Helton, it's just the opposite, a productive Todd makes an opening day lineup like this much more likely:

C: Iannetta
1B: Helton
2B: Stewart
3B: Atkins
SS: Tulowitzki
LF: Smith
CF: Spilborghs
RF: Hawpe

Which would be an offensive force, a defensive quagmire, but a solid producer on the whole. The lowest projected OBP in that lineup according to CHONE is Stewart at .350 and the average is .370. Here's a comparison to the CHONE projected OBP's of our divisional rivals' likeliest starting eights:

Arizona: .347
Los Angeles: .358
San Diego: .335
San Francisco: .336

In the unlikely event that Manny signs with San Francisco rather than Los Angeles, you could lower the Dodgers projection and boost the Giants. Still, our lowest OBP player would project to be above the average OBP of three of our four rivals. Frankly, I still think that this lineup would be temporary. As soon as Atkins could be moved for an effective starter to insure against a loss of Francis, I'd expect him to get shipped.

One of the stronger possibilities of a player not mentioned above entering the starting mix would be Carlos Gonzalez taking a big leap forward. Add this Patrick Saunders piece to Thomas Harding's article linked yesterday to media reports bringing this possibility up the last couple of days.

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Francis shoulder

is a concern, in that article, there was no indication of what was actually causing it. If rest of the off season isn’t helping it…how would it get any better once Francis has to use it on a regular basis during the season? Now I understand some of the additions of starting pitching depth better. The old saying you can never have too much starting pitching…..is still true I guess.

Helton’s back is back (but for how long?)…and Stewart is out of position. We’ve done this one to death, but I’m still not sure what I think about it. I guess bottom line, is I want the best Rockies team in 09 that we can have, and the best in 2011 as well, and hope they aren’t conflicting agendas..

And I still miss Kaz Matsui…there I said it. I feel better…..sorta

"Suck it monkeys, the Rockies will win this year", Rox Girl 1-11-2009

by Redhawk on Jan 24, 2009 8:57 AM MST reply actions 0 recs

I agree...

Francis’ preformance was cause for major concern last year…and now they are saying that he didn’t get better with rest and have no clue what is wrong. We cannot have a Jeff Francis out there throwing 84 MPH with a flat breaking ball. Hopefully one of those other guys can step it up and perform…I really liked Hirsh in 2007, but he looked horrible in Colorado Springs all last year, he may have the same issue as Francis.
I really think that success in 2009 depends on a return to form by Francis.

by Sandlotkid8 on Jan 24, 2009 2:45 PM MST up reply actions 0 recs

Furgl

The shoulder issue is somewhat scary. The linked article mentions that surgery was an option before the clean MRI. But how many times does a pitcher complain of pain, get an MRI, find nothing, and then tear his rotator cuff later. And as it is Jeff isn’t exactly a fireballer. So O Dowd looks pretty smart for piling up the pitching depth so far this offseason.

by moomacher on Jan 24, 2009 9:06 AM MST reply actions 0 recs

If something does happen to Francis.

Like surgery, or something that will keep him out for a long time, I hope it happens soon. If it does happen, do you think the Rockies should try to bring Sheets in. I know all about the injury issues with Sheets, but from what I have heard, he is healthy right now. And when he is healthy, he is an ace. And with the current FA market, he could probably be had for cheap. Anyway, just thinking out loud.

by mkorpal on Jan 24, 2009 9:17 AM MST reply actions 0 recs

I like the idea of Sheets.

If the market keeps dwindling he could be had for a low one year contract with a bunch of incentives. I don’t know what incentives the Rockies could give him though with the season he had last year (13-9, 3.09 era, 198.1 ip). This could work to the Rockies advantage as he is a proven, injury prone, pitcher. The only problem is the loss of a draft pick. Let’s remember back a couple years to a pitcher by the name of Estes; he came to Colorado after a down year and left on everyone’s radar. Sheets is not coming off a down year but still people aren’t buying. If the Rockies sign him for one year that gives the top minor league prospects more time to develop along with almost immediate help on the MLB roster. Sheets can show that he is still the pitcher everyone fears and his market will go up after the season, of course pitching at Coors could have the opposite effect as well. And if Francis comes back as a #4/5 starter that would give the Rockies a very solid rotation.

"People ask me what I do in winter when there's no baseball. I'll tell you what I do. I stare out the window and wait for spring." ~Rogers Hornsby
JFK

by jrockies on Jan 24, 2009 10:16 AM MST up reply actions 0 recs

If it's a one year deal...

I’m not worried about the loss of the draft pick. He will probably hit type A again next year unless he doesn’t pitch at all this year. So, we may end up turning our 2nd rounder this year into a 1st rounder + sandwich pick next year.

by mkorpal on Jan 24, 2009 10:20 AM MST up reply actions 0 recs

Sheets...

isn’t going to happen…You would have to convince him to come here first (he doesn’t throw well here) and you would have to be the top bidder…I just can’t see the Rockies being the high bidder for Sheets, especially if his value drops. The Mets or someone like that will swoop him up if they can get him on a one year deal.

by Sandlotkid8 on Jan 24, 2009 2:35 PM MST up reply actions 0 recs

Sheets at Coors

Career, he’s 1-2 with a 7.11 ERA, although he’s only pitched in 4 games.

by onholliday on Jan 24, 2009 3:44 PM MST up reply actions 0 recs

I think Sandlotkid8's right in that would be enough to scare him off...

He’d not be very high up on the list of pitchers I would expect to come here willingly.

by Rox Girl on Jan 24, 2009 3:58 PM MST up reply actions 0 recs

Sheets would help the Rockies

however, his “discount” rate still maybe more than the Rockies could afford. If he went for $15million for 3 years, that might be too much to add to the payroll.

Sheets has been linked to the Texas Rangers, the Houston Astros (though they have no more payroll room then the Rockies) the Dodgers, and the Yankees. Almost every team is now dreaming they can afford Sheets. When its all said and done, I expect him to be paid more then he’s worth.

"Suck it monkeys, the Rockies will win this year", Rox Girl 1-11-2009

by Redhawk on Jan 24, 2009 10:59 AM MST up reply actions 0 recs

The stockpiling of arms

was needed and long advocated by this hack for the last two years. As for Francis, this guy is a soft tossing lefty, a middle of the rotation guy, and quite frankly those types are either in the groove or very average. If he needs the surgery, then do it. Because he’ll be very ineffective otherwise.

by PinchHitLancePainter on Jan 24, 2009 9:19 AM MST reply actions 0 recs

RG, what's the batting order for that lineup?

I like the idea of Helton sticking around if healthy, and Atkins going while he has enough value to bring back more than a prospect/bad contract. There are enough people who can hit for average and slug decently in that lineup that Helton can hit 15 HR, 35 2B, OBP .380 and be a tremendously effective force.

by deacs on Jan 24, 2009 12:08 PM MST reply actions 0 recs

Personally, I’d go with:

1. Spilly
2. Helton
3. Atkins
4. Hawpe
5. Iannetta
6. Tulo
7. Stewart
8. Pitcher/PH
9. Smith

Which is unconventional but would average 5.469 (886 over 162 games) runs using the CHONE projections for our starting eight and last season’s NL average for the ninth slot in place of the pitcher according to Baseball Musings’ lineup analysis. I expect in reality that Hurdle would go

1. Spilly
2. Helton
3. Atkins
4. Hawpe
5. Iannetta
6. Stewart
7. Tulo
8. Smith
9. Pitcher/PH

which is just about as effective. It’s hard to go wrong with this kind of balance. Of course, in reality we’re not going to score quite so many with plenty of rest coming to Helton and Iannetta and significant drop-offs to their replacements, and this doesn’t factor injuries or other lost playing time elsewhere, but still, a regular lineup like that should help us clear the 850 run mark again.

by Rox Girl on Jan 24, 2009 12:32 PM MST up reply actions 0 recs

Now that's strange

I’m having a lot of trouble understanding why the best lineups generated by Baseball Musings have Helton hitting 1st, Hawpe 2nd, the pitcher 8th and Iannetta 9th….

by Andrew T. Fisher on Jan 24, 2009 12:51 PM MST up reply actions 0 recs

The numbers put in

had Helton with the highest OBP and a lower SLG than everyone except PH/Pitcher, thus making him an ideal leadoff. It is just a computer program and it does not know other any other factors.

"People ask me what I do in winter when there's no baseball. I'll tell you what I do. I stare out the window and wait for spring." ~Rogers Hornsby
JFK

by jrockies on Jan 24, 2009 12:58 PM MST up reply actions 0 recs

I see that now

Doesn’t take into account speed or anything.

by Andrew T. Fisher on Jan 24, 2009 1:05 PM MST up reply actions 0 recs

I wonder...

I know that Tulo really wants to hit out of the 2 hole…couldn’t you see Hurdle giving him that chance to prove himself? Move Tulo to two hole…Helton to six hole, and Stewart to 7 hole…that helps turn the lineup over too….thoughts?

by Sandlotkid8 on Jan 24, 2009 2:48 PM MST up reply actions 0 recs

I think he winds up there at the end of the season

But I think Hurdle will want him to prove he’s back all the way before giving him that shot. This means starting the season lower in the lineup.

by Rox Girl on Jan 24, 2009 2:50 PM MST up reply actions 0 recs

Can you speak

to the theory behind the 1959-2004 model vs the 1998-2002 model and why you used the latter?

by Andrew T. Fisher on Jan 24, 2009 8:56 PM MST up reply actions 0 recs

I haven't seen

much from the FO suggesting that they’re comfortable with Stewart being a full-time 2B. Is this personal speculation, or do you have a source pointing to that as a possibility?

by Andrew T. Fisher on Jan 24, 2009 12:54 PM MST reply actions 0 recs

Mostly speculative...

The Rockies want Stewart’s bat in the lineup, but at the same time they’ve been playing up Seth Smith in left field. There aren’t a lot of ways to make that work and keeping Atkins without giving Stewart significant time at second so long as Helton’s healthy. I think as long as the Rockies have Atkins (which again, I’m speculating won’t be for very long) then I see Stewart playing a lot of second base, and I expect to see him get many more innings there in March than he did last Spring.

by Rox Girl on Jan 24, 2009 1:55 PM MST up reply actions 0 recs

I'm thinking...

If they somehow manage to transform Stewart into a passable 2B, than they will keep Atkins. It’s not like we are in financial problems right now, so trading Atkins isn’t a salary dump. The only reason it would happen is to clear a spot for Stewart to play. If he can take 2B, than there is no need for that either. However, that would mean that one of Baker or Barmes would probably need to be traded.

This is assuming that Stewart can somehow play 2B. He would probably need to slim down a little to increase his range, which may screw with his bat.

By the way, I don’t remember much from his time at 2B last year. What was it like. I know he was errorless, but how was his jump on balls. Having Tulo at SS would probably lessen the required range of 2B to the right.

by mkorpal on Jan 24, 2009 2:19 PM MST up reply actions 0 recs

According to his RZR...

Stewart had 93 innings at 2B with a RZR of .861, which was higher than Q, Herrera and Jeff Baker. His fielding pct was .982, higher than Baker, Barmes and Herrera.

So stats-wise he showed solid skills at the position.

Keepin' warm by the hot stove season.

by Charlie77 on Jan 24, 2009 11:45 PM MST up reply actions 0 recs

UZR liked him at 2B also.

Follow me on Twitter! http://www.twitter.com/rockiesmagicnum

by Andrew Martin on Jan 25, 2009 12:32 AM MST up reply actions 0 recs

Same here

What about Stewart in left. I have floated it around this board a few times, but usually mixed in with other points and I have not hear a lot about why people think he would not do well there. Third baseman’s arm in left, Hawpe with a canon in right and Spillbourghs who throws a little above average. That could make for some interesting plays at the plate on base hits with a runner at 2nd. Here is my lineup

1. 2nd Barmes R I think the Rockies need his defense
2. SS Tulo R
3. 1st Helton L
4. 3rd Atkins R
5. RF Hawpe L
6. C Ianetta R
7. LF Stewart R (he can kill left handed pitching)
8. CF Spillbourghs R (I like a guy in the 8th spot who can get the pitcher up and out of the way)
9. Pitcher

What if the hokey pokey is what it is all about after all????

by FlyAway on Jan 24, 2009 2:13 PM MST up reply actions 0 recs

I'm sorry.

But that isn’t a very good lineup. Barmes would be a worse leadoff hitter than Taveras was. He has the same plate discipline with a little more contact, a little more power, and about 1/10 the speed. He is better suited for the 8th whole. Helton doesn’t have nearly the power to bat 3rd. You are also waisting Spillies OBP talent on the pitcher. Rox Girl posted the best lineup we can have a while ago in this thread.

by mkorpal on Jan 24, 2009 2:23 PM MST up reply actions 0 recs

And

Stewart bats left handed.

"People ask me what I do in winter when there's no baseball. I'll tell you what I do. I stare out the window and wait for spring." ~Rogers Hornsby
JFK

by jrockies on Jan 24, 2009 2:27 PM MST up reply actions 0 recs

oops typo

I knew Stewart was a left handed hitter, just a typo sorry about that.

OK what about flipping Spillbourghs and Barmes? I like Seth Smith, in fact the first time I ever saw him hit in a spring training game my first comment was that he had really good bat speed through the zone. However, for some reason I am not totally sold on him yet. The competition between Smith, Stewart, Carlos Gonzalez and even Dexter Fowler and Scott Podsednik (more center fields though) will be one of the big things to watch in Spring Training. As far as moving Helton down, yea he does not have the power of a typical number 3 hitter, but he is still one of the most disiplined hitters (when healthy) in the league. Also, I like the R,L,R,L,R,L lineup from 2-7. Another option would be to move Stewart to the 3 spot and hit Helton 7. However, while Stewart has plenty of power, his minor league history says that he is a very streaky hitter. For a young guy I would like to see him have a year or two lower in the order until the Rockies know for sure what they have at the major league level. I don’t think he has enough big league at bats to put him in an RBI spot like the 3rd hitter. I would consider Ianetta hitting 3rd especially how well he did with runners in scoring position last year. It would mess up the R,L combination 2-7, but that probably isn’t that important anyway.

Most people do not agree with me that Barmes should be the everyday second basemen. However, the Rockies pitching staff are a bunch of ground ball specialists. I think the defense up the middle is very imporatant to that type of pitching staff. Tulo and Barmes with Quantanilla as a sub would be a really good combination.

What if the hokey pokey is what it is all about after all????

by FlyAway on Jan 24, 2009 6:57 PM MST up reply actions 0 recs

Barmes as 2B

Defensively, we all agree with you here. Offensively, Stewart is the better choice. It will come down to who’s healthy and who’s still with the team.

Follow me on Twitter! http://www.twitter.com/rockiesmagicnum

by Andrew Martin on Jan 25, 2009 12:35 AM MST up reply actions 0 recs

Injuries are alway the big X-Factor. This year I am pretty sure Barmes will be there all year. Atkins is still TBD, so that leaves Stewart in flux. One way or the other I am excited about this years team. There ae still some question marks, but unlike spring training last year there are more options. For example last year the Rockies were depending on Morales and Jiminez. They did not come through (at least early for Jiminez) and the rockies had no other real options. Towers and Redman where not good options, Reynolds was not ready yet and Hirsh never got healthy. They also were counting on Nix and he never got it going at the plate. This yearthere are some question marks about Helton’s, and Francis’ health, but in both cases they have some depth and there is compition for the spots. There is some questions about the closer but Street and Corpas will fight it out. Looking forward to the season.

What if the hokey pokey is what it is all about after all????

by FlyAway on Jan 25, 2009 8:03 AM MST up reply actions 0 recs

It's not that Stewart wouldn't do well in left, he would...

The question is would you rather have Smith or Barmes in the lineup? If there’s any way possible to get Smith and Stewart in at the same time defensively and push Barmes to the bench, the team would want to go that direction. It then becomes a matter of whether Stew can handle second. If he can, then that’s the direction you’ve got to go, if not, then you decide whether you like him or Smith better in left, but not until that first option has been exhausted.

by Rox Girl on Jan 24, 2009 2:35 PM MST up reply actions 0 recs

I think we lose more when we sit Ianneta than when we sit Helton.

If Helton sits two days a week(and probably not back to back), Atkins goes to 1st, Stewart to 3rd and Barmes to 2nd. I know we lose some defense but only for a day or so at a time. But when we sit Chris, I feel there is more of a hole with Yorvit. Luckily Chris is a young guy so he’ll play the lions share at catcher.

And here’s a thought that maybe has been thrown around here. If I’m plowing the same field again, I apologize. Assuming we flip Atkins (hopefully for a pitcher who can help right away), does Chris have the skills to fill in for Helton when Todd needs rest?

by pedalpusher on Jan 24, 2009 12:57 PM MST reply actions 0 recs

I'd be in favor of seeing this...

I don’t know if the team would be willing to try that out some days, but it would provide a better lineup than Baker + Yorvit. Of course Baker + Iannetta is superior to that, so I’d only do it when Helton’s injured and Iannetta could get by with only a partial break.

by Rox Girl on Jan 24, 2009 2:01 PM MST up reply actions 0 recs

Get Hawpe out of RF

Helton rest days = Baker OF days.

Smith-Spilborghs-Baker still isn’t good, but it’s better with Hawpe at 1B.

Follow me on Twitter! http://www.twitter.com/rockiesmagicnum

by Andrew Martin on Jan 25, 2009 12:37 AM MST up reply actions 0 recs

You're forgetting about...

Chris is a young guy so he’ll play the lions share at catcher.

Hurdle has a mancrush on Torrealba.

Keepin' warm by the hot stove season.

by Charlie77 on Jan 24, 2009 11:47 PM MST up reply actions 0 recs

that makes me sick

i dislike men, you don't know what the hell you want out of life.

by pierzynskirules on Jan 25, 2009 4:02 PM MST up reply actions 0 recs

Are the projectons park-neutral?

Like is the projected OBP advantage over the Dodgers real or is it just there because the Rockies play half their games at Coors?

by Brendan Scolari on Jan 24, 2009 2:42 PM MST reply actions 0 recs

Thanks for bringing this up: This is not park neutral, so the optimal LA and COL lineups would be

About equal if you take 3.5% to 4% off (half of Coors’ typical 7% park rating) from the .370 figure. Both these lineups are well ahead of the rest of the division. Park neutralizing the Rockies rotation would give us an advantage right now in starters pending who you sign, but I think you guys still have a slightly better bullpen even after that’s neutralized.

by Rox Girl on Jan 24, 2009 2:48 PM MST up reply actions 0 recs

Right

it evens out for you guys because the pitchers will be that much better. I was just curious because just looking at the lineups (assuming we sign Manny) it doesn’t seem like the Rockies would have a better OBP.

by Brendan Scolari on Jan 24, 2009 2:59 PM MST up reply actions 0 recs

I'm not expecting it, but I wouldn't be terribly surprised if we did outperform LA in OBP

Even after it gets park adjusted in 2009. It’s going to come down to who outperforms or underperforms their projections, and with both teams having several young players as wild cards, it could go either way. I think Helton and Manny pretty much cancel each other out in this category (obviously Manny exceeds Todd in power) as do Martin and Iannetta.

I expect Kemp’s to shoot up any day given his minor league marks and scouting reports and could easily see him outproducing his .353 projection, but the same’s true of Stewart. CHONE sees regressions from 2008 for Ethier, DeWitt, Iannetta and Spilborghs, but if any of them are able to hold onto last season’s levels (quite possible for Iannetta and Ethier, not really for DeWitt and Spilly) than it could tilt the scales to one side. If Loney or Tulo are able to return to what they did in 2007, it could also give one side an advantage that’s not showing up. It will be a very interesting to see how this will all unfold this year.

by Rox Girl on Jan 24, 2009 3:15 PM MST up reply actions 0 recs

You guys could definitely beat us out there

but I think we’re pretty even. But I don’t think Stweart will break out, because I still think Barmes is going to play a lot at 2B. I think the only way Stewart gets in the lineup regularly is in place of Atkins or in LF over Smith.

by Brendan Scolari on Jan 24, 2009 3:25 PM MST up reply actions 0 recs

Agree on Stewart

That it really depends on how often he gets in the lineup. I think his best case scenario is getting in at second 4 days a week – and then sliding over to 3rd the handful of days that Atkins plays 1st when Helton sits – which I expect to be at least 2 days a week. If he can handle getting jerked around on the defensive half inning and not let it affect his at bats he should do ok.

by Hizilla on Jan 24, 2009 4:35 PM MST up reply actions 0 recs

I hope

that we don’t juggle positions that much. If Helton is out and Atkins moves to first, and Stewart moves to 2nd, and then Barmes come in…that’s 3 players new in the line up. Team defense need more consistency that that.

"Suck it monkeys, the Rockies will win this year", Rox Girl 1-11-2009

by Redhawk on Jan 24, 2009 5:11 PM MST up reply actions 0 recs

I wouldn't be so sure about Stewart not getting in at second...

I’m going to try and post a longer piece about how this applies to Stewart specifically tomorrow, but the defensive value of second basemen has eroded tremendously over the last ten years to the point of being equal with that of third basemen. Players like Dan Uggla, Ian Kinsler, Jeff Kent and others are able to continue to post relatively high WAR figures because more teams are looking to get offensive utility out of the position. You’d have to believe that for Uggla to register as a plus at all at the position (+0.3 runs in 2008 according to UZR) that second base isn’t what it used to be defensively, and the salary evidence that Tango shows in the link backs this up.

by Rox Girl on Jan 24, 2009 5:33 PM MST up reply actions 0 recs

You also have to factor in the SS when you talk about middle infield defense. Tulo was pretty much the best defender there in 07. 08 he was limited because of injury. A rebound by him defensively (which is just about a certainty) will help to diminish the effects of Stewart playing 2B.

by mkorpal on Jan 24, 2009 6:03 PM MST up reply actions 0 recs

My upcoming article

is allll about Tango’s positional adjustments and how they apply to us.

Follow me on Twitter! http://www.twitter.com/rockiesmagicnum

by Andrew Martin on Jan 25, 2009 12:40 AM MST up reply actions 0 recs

I don't meant to say that I don't think he should play there

I think he is probably the best fit for second base given the Rox’ situation. I simply don’t think Hurdle will make the right decision, similiar to the Iannetta and Torrealba situation last year, and play him there regularly.

by Brendan Scolari on Jan 25, 2009 12:48 AM MST up reply actions 0 recs

Can someone say

Helton, Comeback Player of the Year 2009. This would be cool but it gets better when he helps the team win the West.

"People ask me what I do in winter when there's no baseball. I'll tell you what I do. I stare out the window and wait for spring." ~Rogers Hornsby
JFK

by jrockies on Jan 25, 2009 12:05 AM MST reply actions 0 recs