I think people have understood the effect of breaking/curve pitches at and away from Coors for awhile (obviously, since the Coors Effect is half home/half road). However, I don’t recall anyone (Denver Post, ESPN, etc.) ever looking at it from the angle that hitters will get better after 2+ games on the road. It is nice to know that, if the Holliday Curve applies to other talented Rockies hitters (and in the comments section, it appears the Helton 2000 numbers follow the trend), a player’s pure talent doesn’t have to be reevaluated because he plays at Coors.

If Holliday posts good numbers in ‘09, slightly below his average 07/08 stats, it will certainly help validate this. Since the Rockies have never had a player leave in his prime, it would be difficult to look at other former Rockies and draw this conclusion. One example may be Gallaraga going to Atlanta and crushing balls in 1998 and 2000. I don’t think Bichette, Walker and Castilla count because of their age upon departure.

A couple of conclusions from this post from a Rockies perspective, if the theory holds true: 1) The Rockies should move their practice facility out of Denver because on 3-6 game road trips, this is not so good for the club. 2) This could help Helton’s candidacy for the Hall of Fame quite a bit. Sure, it’s not good that the Rockies can’t always get it going on short road trips, but this is at least an explanation for why it happens rather than a condemnation of Helton’s numbers as Coors inflated.

Otherwise, it’s just an analysis of Matt Holliday, not the Rockies.

historically good numbers often have some of the greatest variation within them, like Chipper’s 72 point difference this year.

The point with 2000 is that is a season often cited as a prime example of Coors hitting, although as the surface numbers suggest, that is not true. But the point isn’t the surface numbers at all, it’s what lies beneath them. And beneath it is that Helton’s average was worst on the first day of the trip, and incrementally better days 2 and 3. His day 4 isn’t so bad either. Day 5 drops off. It’s no firm trend, but it’s some evidence that Fletcher’s theory may work. People suspect the .372 BA is inflated by Coors and therefore Helton is not as good of a hitter as people think, but nobody suggests that Coors, not a lack of talent, deflated his road numbers. The idea of the 1-2 day adjustment period says that there’s just as good evidence that Helton’s 2000 numbers may have been even better if there wasn’t such an initial adjustment period on road trips.

It’s sort of the same mistake people make about using HGH: Did HGH make Bonds a great hitter? No, it didn’t ‘t help him make contact. But can it helped his body recover quicker and get back in the lineup to hit more. This theory refutes the generalization that Coors make you a better hitter. It can’t help you make contact, but the air can help you hit it further.