Things to Look For in 2009 and beyond....

by PinchHitLancePainter on Jan 25, 2009 3:48 PM MST

1. Added pitching depth = more wins in 2009. Should have happened two years ago but additional arms will mean more wins, more Q starts in 2009. Based on pitching alone I would say this team is at least .500. There will be less bullpen strain, more innings eaten, less patchwork starts in 2009. I see the Rockies team era in the low to mid 4s this year. Many close one run games which brings me to...

2. The dilemma of the offense though.... The Rockies offense will be slow, station to station and have proven to be not so run productive(see % in RISP, Sac Fly etc). Baseball is evolving back to a run producing game. The Rocks may have the slowest lineup in baseball. Few bunters of any quality, limited SB potential, and issues with contact (i.e.. less hit and run ops). How will they produce runs? Will the better pitching offset the less run production. Rocks have many guys with lots of swing holes. Atkins, Hawpe, Stewart, Tulowitzski. There best contact guys Helton/Ianetta/Smith/Spilborghs are not (save Helton) at the top of the list. I suspect there will be many low run games they are involved in this year. Can they manufacture runs to win?

3. Speed evolution. This is coming from several angles. 1. The drop in power post roid era. 2. A needed refocus on african american players coming into baseball. 3. Due to the financial situation, older more expensive players are being squeezed out. I love the speed game. The last 15 years have been difficult to swallow with the emphasis on driving balls and big innings and lack of fundamental run manufacturing and aggressive style. I played in the speed era and it was great and exciting. Rockies need to get their fast and may need to elevate Young, Fowler, etc quickly to adapt. It has been truly sad to see talented african american kids playing basketball and football over baseball the last generation. I am excited to yearn for the day when base stealing is once again a major offensive threat. Guys pushing 100 steals per season. Give me the Vince Colemans, Willie Wilsons, Tim Raines's, Willie McGee's, Rickey Henderson's back. Bring back the 2 hole guys who take pitches, hit the ball to the opposite side, can bunt the ball into a soup can etc. Thank god for RBI program and a renewed emphasis on getting the african american kids on the baseball field. They produced so many of the great players in history and are sorely needed back in the sport.

4. Defense. Another real question mark in 2009. The outfield will have coverage issues. We are suspect at 3B, 2B, and in the entire OF. Quite frankly if I were the manager I would open with Fowler in CF from the start as the gaps in Coors Field will look very large with the sloths we have in the OF. I need to see more of this Gonzales kid and will be watching the Carribean Series with interest. If Helton plays well in 2009 the infield will be improved as he eliminates errors and makes plays other 1B don't. I think either Gonzales or Fowler must be in the lineup though as speed is needed.

Prediction: 85-77 and a third place finish behind the Giants/Dodgers.

Eat. Drink. Be Merry. But the above FanPost does not necessarily reflect the attitudes, opinions, or views of Purple Row's staff (unless, of course, it's written by the staff [and even then, it still might not]).

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Man

3 + .500 teams in the division…I’m not sure I feel your optimism for the NL West, but I can see 85 wins for this team.

by Hizilla on Jan 25, 2009 4:42 PM MST reply actions

Wow

Never thought I’d see this day, PHLP, as you and I have had our differences in the past, but I’m actually less optimistic about this team than you are. At least when it comes to the win total – I’ve got us for 82-83 right now, pending what develops from the Atkins situation and whether or not we can count on Francis to bounce back. I think our ceiling is around 88-89 wins if the guys we need to bounce back to 07 levels (Francis, Tulo, Corpas, Atkins) all do so.

Where we differ is that I could honestly see 82-83 wins winning the West. If you combined LA’s lineup with SF’s pitching, that’s a team that could win 95+ games, but I think both of those teams are just too incomplete to peg for anything much higher than .500 at this point. Of course, that’s also subject to change as this winter goes on.

Staying on the sunny side of Blake Street since 1993.
MHCSports - Denver sports analysis from Denver sports fans

by Franchise26 on Jan 25, 2009 7:27 PM MST reply actions

I agree on almost all points

1) The old saying is you can never have too much starting pitching, is an old saying for a reason: It’s true. I like the depth. I still think the Rockies need a top of the rotation guy. I don’t like soft throwing lefties in Coors and would trade Francis and Greg Smith the first chance I got.

2) this is actually a big key in the post-roid era. Going back to the basics of getting, on base, making contact and productive outs to move a runner along I see as becoming back into ‘vogue’. During the ‘roid era everyone played for the 3 run homer. Get a guy on…don’t get thrown out stealing…so don’t steal. Don’t get thrown out at third, so the base runners didn’t know how to push a defense…just wait for the big bomb. Along with that thinking came the idea, that strikes-outs are ok, even for guys who aren’t hitting 40 homers a year. (ian Stewart I’m looking at you!) Games will be 4-3 a lot more and that means run production….especially run production with out hits. I find the Rockies (and most of baseball teams) to be atrocious at this. (Note to Hurdle: Bunting is a part of this…but you have to know WHEN to bunt as a bunt is an automatic out, and you only have 3 of them each inning). The teams that figure this out first will get a boost in W’s

3) Speed. I see this totally tied into #2. It’s about run production..moving a up, stealing a base, scoring from 2nd, getting to 3rd, legging out hits. The Rockies don’t have that, and not just at the top of the order…they don’t have that down the line either. Not everyone has to be jack-rabbits like Tavares on the base-paths, but we have too many like Atkins, Helton, Hawpe that are station to station. Even in traditional speed spots like SS or 2nd, or CF..the Rockies are amazingly average (or below). In fact over the next few years, I think we’ll start seeing more guys that hit .260 but can run on teams like we did in the 70’s.

4) Defense: What’s the opposite of run-production, in a tight close, lower scoring ball game? Defense. Pitching, defense and timely hitting is the formula for winning baseball. Always has been and always will be. Especially defense up the middle. I love Spilly…but not in those gaps in Coors Field in Center. One way to have better defense….speed. And as established already…the Rockies are SLOW

I think this Rockie team for all it’s short coming has enough talent in enough spots, especially pitching (assuming JDR looks in 09 like he did in 08) to be a near .500 team give or take a couple of wins. I think 85-88 wins will take the division however. Can the Rockies do it? I don’t know. I don’t think they do any ONE thing (Pitching, defense, timely hitting, hitting for average, hitting for power, base running) exceptionally well enough to pull it off.

"Suck it monkeys, the Rockies will win this year", Rox Girl 1-11-2009

by Redhawk on Jan 26, 2009 8:46 AM MST reply actions

RE 1)

The thing that struck me here that should be clarified, is the key difference between lots of starting pitching and quality starting pitching. Last year the team had lots of ‘starting pitching’ but not of the same quality they have this year.

Greg Reynolds 13GS
Mark Redman 9GS
Glendon Rusch 9GS
Livan Hernandez 8GS
Franklin Morales 5GS
Valerio de los Santos 2GS
Kip Wells 2GS
Jason Hirsch 1GS

They also had the great Josh Towers waiting in AAA. I don’t want to begrudge them a handful of the Reynolds starts or the Morales starts, because the team had to see what they had to offer – which in 2008 was not much.

That is roughly 35 starts at less than replacement level, without factoring in Francis’ terrible spring.
Injuries aside, replacing 25-30 of those starts with Marquis should give a significant jump up in wins. If Francis does not come back healthy, replacing some of his starts with Greg Smith or an improved Morales/Hirsch/Reynolds (I have a bit more faith in Morales to provide quality pitching at some point during the season than the other two) is also a much better option than running Rusch (who wasn’t THAT bad), Redman, or Livan out there every 5th day.

I guess the point I am trying to make here is that the upgrade in the back end of the rotation and the higher quality depth to cover potential injuries may provide a greater boost in wins to the team than people realize.

by Hizilla on Jan 26, 2009 9:52 AM MST up reply actions

I wonder if G-Rey will rebound?

Or is he the Rockies next Nix?

Keepin' warm by the hot stove season.

by Charlie77 on Feb 2, 2009 1:01 AM MST up reply actions

Good post

You did a good job of expanding on me (had I posted before you) just saying “Have higher OBPs”

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by Andrew Martin on Jan 26, 2009 2:41 PM MST up reply actions

White men run too...

Decline in running game isn’t because of fewer black players. Two of the top three all-time MLB basestealers are white and so are half of the top 10 leaders.

The decline can be attributed more to additional pickoff moves, and an increase in a pitchers delivery to the plate. Thirty years ago the average pitcher took longer than 1.5 seconds to deliver the ball to the plate, now pitchers can get there in 1.1-1.3 seconds.

Keepin' warm by the hot stove season.

by Charlie77 on Jan 27, 2009 12:30 AM MST reply actions

Yes I know this.

I was a sub 9.99 second 100 yard dasher back in the day. But trust me those of us that were white that could were few and far between.

Also I thought Lou Brock and Rickey Henderson were 1-2 all time and they are both black. Cobb (no 3) played in a white only era).

by PinchHitLancePainter on Jan 27, 2009 6:40 AM MST up reply actions

As a fellow old timer here

I think I have to be the one, to point out, that generalities of any kind based on skin melanin is really, really bad. Society has moved passed this, or at least is trying real hard to.

Even if it is positive generality, skin color has no bearing on any human’s abilities to do anything and should not be mentioned as a reason some one can or can’t do something.

"Suck it monkeys, the Rockies will win this year", Rox Girl 1-11-2009

by Redhawk on Jan 27, 2009 8:21 AM MST up reply actions

No wonder Chuck Knoblauch was ranked 10th...

I was looking at the American League’s all time SB leaders. Who could forget the great Lou Brock? Another point that is overlooked is how often lefties get away with balking to first base. Andy Pettite was the worst, everytime he attempted a pickoff he was already in his pitching motion. But pitchers nowadays can vary their motion on pickoffs and slidesteps to the plate. Catchers are getting better at pickoffs to first. It’s tougher for a basestealer to get a good read on the pitcher.

Keepin' warm by the hot stove season.

by Charlie77 on Jan 28, 2009 1:17 AM MST up reply actions

Catchers

also have a better throwing arm, footwork, release etc. All of that adds up to a more conservative game for managers (in not wanting to run into outs).

BUT, and what I think will start to happen, and what Pinchhit I would assume is suggesting, is in the post ‘roid era, we’ll start to see a return to base-running and base-stealing.

I doubt we’ll ever see a 100 stolen base season again for the reasons you mention (among others), but I can see a time when every team has one guy 50+, and maybe another (or 2) 25-30+. It’s a weapon that has been forgotten, and one I think will be rediscovered in the attempt to generate runs in lower scoring games.

"Suck it monkeys, the Rockies will win this year", Rox Girl 1-11-2009

by Redhawk on Jan 27, 2009 8:14 AM MST up reply actions

we have this scott podsednik

Follow me on Twitter! http://www.twitter.com/rockiesmagicnum

by Andrew Martin on Jan 27, 2009 9:29 AM MST up reply actions

Yup, the poor man's Brett Butler

and I say that with kindness.

Watching the purple row from high atop the big brown monolith on California Ave

by Mondogarage on Jan 27, 2009 10:26 AM MST up reply actions

Both speed/empty BA guys

The guys like Rickey Henderson, Lou Brock, and Rock Raines could hit for decent power as well, which distinguished them from mere speed guys.

by Tom (RFTN) on Jan 27, 2009 10:41 AM MST up reply actions

Eh, pods had a couple decent 20+ 2B seasons

But I see your point. A good .120+ IsoP to go with the AVG and such.

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by Andrew Martin on Jan 27, 2009 11:20 AM MST up reply actions

Aside from that

Even if there are fewer African-American players now than in the past, it’s not like baseball has become a white man’s club again. Many of the Latin American players in the league are clearly of African descent, so the “fewer African-American players” argument alone can’t explain the decline in the speed game.

by Tom (RFTN) on Jan 27, 2009 10:15 AM MST up reply actions

True

I think another issue is that pitchers, in general also throw a lot harder now than they did 20 years ago. I remember in AA in the early 80’s the number of 94+ throwers I faced was very few . Now they are all up and down MLB rotations.

Point is smaller speed guys had trouble with over powering stuff. Taveras is a good example and there have been others. Gary Pettis was a guy I played against and he had serious contact issues, Curtis Wilkerson is another that comes to mind.

Scouts for the last 20 years have been looking for the potential 5 tool guys. Many of those became bulked up power guys and lost the speed element due to a variety of reasons (legal and not so legal).

by PinchHitLancePainter on Jan 27, 2009 12:59 PM MST up reply actions