Purple Row: An SB Nation Community

Navigation: Jump to content areas:


Pro Quality. Fan Perspective.
Login-facebook
Network Message: 50% Off: CBS/SB Nation Fantasy Baseball

Monday Rockpile: K/100 Pitches and the Rockies

Over at The Baseball Analysts, Rich Lederer looks at the best and worst pitchers according to the number of strikeouts a pitcher had per 100 pitches. Lederer offers a number of links to stories he wrote over the last few years on this stat, which you should read, and Lederer finds that:

Not surprisingly, K/P has the highest correlation to ERA and RA. K/BF has the second-highest correlation and K/IP has the lowest correlation. In any other words, K/P > K/BF > K/IP.

There were 142 qualifying pitchers in this study (he provides a link to an Excel table if you want to see every pitcher), but I went through it and picked out the Rockies that qualified in 2008.

 

Rank Player K/100P
21 Jorge De La Rosa 5.67
43 Ubaldo Jimenez 5.13
93 Jeff Francis 3.94
130 Aaron Cook 3.13
142 Livan Hernandez 2.39
     
107 Greg Smith 3.59
117 Jason Marquis 3.42

 

Livan Hernandez ranked dead last. Moving on, according to Lederer's distribution table, De La Rosa and Jimenez were better than average, while all the others fell below the median. But let's take a look at the 2007 chart for K/100P (compiled from Lederer's top 80 article linked to in the above link):

 

Rank Player K/100P
33 Jeff Francis 4.73
66 Jason Marquis 3.60
78 Livan Hernandez 2.68
80 Aaron Cook 2.53

Despite being near the bottom in 2008, Cook actually improved from his 2007 number, which we saw translated into his best season yet. Francis's 0.79 dip offers a bit of insight into the wrong turn he took in 2008.

------

Troy Renck writes about the approach Clint Hurdle will take with the players during Spring Training: back to the basics, the fundamentals. Renck closes with this:

So if the Rockies start poorly again, it won't be because of Holliday or because they weren't ready.

"Fire Hurdle!" "The guys just suck!" Those'll be the alternative explanations for a poor start. Not that the former isn't already heard often.

------

Atkins on his place with the team:

“I don’t know if it’s being selfish or whatever, but I just think that they’re a better team with me here.”

------

Baseball America should unveil their Rockies' Top 10 Prospects List later today.

0 recs  |  Comment 14 comments

Story-email Email Printer Print

Comments

Display:

This Study

is ridiculous. By trying to rank the best pitchers by K/P is bad science at best. Was Greg Smith and Jason Marquis really as good of a pitcher last year as Aaron Cook? Was Livan almost equal? I wonder where Wang Ranked.

by wolf213 on Jan 26, 2009 9:52 AM MST reply actions   0 recs

Wang didn't qualify

since he didn’t reach 100 IP.

But you’re missing the point here. He’s not saying that Smith and Marquis were as good as Cook was last season. If you charted out every pitcher on a graph, Cook would be in the “low K, high groundball rate” quadrant. It’s really a combination of his groundball rate and increased K/100P (if you follow this line of thinking) that led to Cook’s season. Smith and Marquis don’t have comparable groundball rates to Cook’s. Combined with their low K/100P (again, if you follow this line of thinking), Smith and Marquis were nowhere as good as Cook.

"If we never try, we shall never succeed." - Abraham Lincoln

Purple Row - Covering all your Rockies needs!

by Russ Oates on Jan 26, 2009 10:27 AM MST up reply actions   0 recs

Did you read the original article?

It’s not completely ridiculous, although the reasoning behind it is somewhat difficult to follow. The purpose is to identify the pitchers who are best at throwing and missing bats. The idea is that there are two better ways to measure a pitcher by strikeouts than K/9:

1)K/BF (batters faced) and K/100P. K/BF filters out, by identifying efficiency , pitchers who allow a lot of walks, hits, and HPB.

2) K/100P identifies those who don’t allow BB, H, or HBP, as well as those who throw the least pitches per strikeout (the idea being that, during a game, a pitcher who can strikeout batters on 3 pitches is going to record outs more quickly and pitch deeper into games). Read this column from 2006:

Just as striking out the side in order is preferred over getting all three outs via the K regardless of the number of batters faced, a pitcher who strikes out hitters on three pitches is more effective than those who take five or six to get the job done. By definition, he is missing bats a higher percentage of the time and is also more likely to pitch deeper into games and record a greater number of outs than his counterparts.

Once the reasoning behind the stat is understood, it’s relatively simple math (say, compared to the defensive +/- rankings). It’s not identifying the most successful pitchers by ERA or W/L, it’s showing the pitcher who is best at missing bats and getting outs quickly without needing his defense, with the understanding that this is the most efficient way to prevent baserunners and runs scored. Cook is not a strikeout pitcher, but does a good job of getting outs by way of his prowess for groundballs and his defense. His success will always vary based on the quality of defense behind him. Joe Saunders, Jamie Moyer and John Lannan are others that had good years and are far down on the list.

by deacs on Jan 26, 2009 10:52 AM MST up reply actions   0 recs

Makes Sense

I’d be more interested in seeing Outs/100P as some sort of overall efficiency metric. There’s more to getting outs than punchouts.

Relax, all right? Don’t try to strike everybody out. Strikeouts are boring! Besides that, they’re fascist. Throw some ground balls – it’s more democratic.

Follow me on Twitter! http://www.twitter.com/rockiesmagicnum

by Andrew Martin on Jan 26, 2009 1:22 PM MST up reply actions   0 recs

If you measured Outs/100P, I think everybody would be tied.

by onholliday on Jan 26, 2009 1:27 PM MST up reply actions   0 recs

No...

I’ve seen pitchers not make it past the 4th but still find themselves at 100 pitches. If you did Outs/9innings, then yes, everyone would be at 27.

Cook tossed that CG with like 85 pitches or something, I’m wagering his Outs/100 pitches was like 30+. Looks like it’s 31.76 outs/100 pitches at that rate (assuming the number was 85).

Follow me on Twitter! http://www.twitter.com/rockiesmagicnum

by Andrew Martin on Jan 26, 2009 2:33 PM MST up reply actions   0 recs

I think he

threw one with 74 pitches once. Totally kickass.

by Resolution on Jan 26, 2009 3:18 PM MST up reply actions   0 recs

Ok..

so he’s good for 36.4864865 outs. That’s like a complete game combined with 3 extra innings. That’s Halladay-esque there.

Follow me on Twitter! http://www.twitter.com/rockiesmagicnum

by Andrew Martin on Jan 26, 2009 3:24 PM MST up reply actions   0 recs

K/P also doesn't account for batters

If I had to face a lineup of Pat Burrell, Jack Cust, Adam Dunn, Chris Iannetta, Brad Hawpe, Ryan Howard, Carlos Pena, Jim Thome, and Jeremy Hermida, then yeah, I’ll get my strikeouts, but it’ll be on like 6 or 7 pitches.

Now if it was a lineup of Carlos Gomez, Matt Kemp, Dan Uggla, Mark Reynolds, Chris Young, Kevin Kouzmanoff, Ryan Braun, Jhonny Peralta, and Bill Hall, I might be more prone to getting them in that 3 or 4 pitch window.

Follow me on Twitter! http://www.twitter.com/rockiesmagicnum

by Andrew Martin on Jan 27, 2009 12:57 PM MST up reply actions   0 recs

While I was reading Renck's article

all I could think was, “Well no kidding Hurdle.”

Fundamentals aren’t just for the young kids. They’ve got to be worked on ALL the time. The fact that Hurdle seems to fall in and out of this idea just astounds me.

by pedalpusher on Jan 26, 2009 10:20 AM MST reply actions   0 recs

I like the concept

that instead of practicing “fundamentals”, they’ve practicing non-fundamentals, like trick plays or something. “OK guys, now we’re going to work on how to take that outside slider between the 3rd/SS gap with a hard grounder. Once we get that down, we’ll work on trying to take belt-high inner half fastballs to the opposite field. While you guys are doing that, Tulo and Atkins will practice throwing left handed.”

by Teekalong on Jan 26, 2009 3:03 PM MST up reply actions   0 recs

You sound sarcastic

But you’ll swallow your words when the Rockies are supreme at this year’s MLB Street competition.

by Resolution on Jan 26, 2009 3:20 PM MST up reply actions   0 recs

Hawpe might as well have been throwing left handed

hangon wait…

right handed…

no handed…

Hawpe stinks in RF.

Follow me on Twitter! http://www.twitter.com/rockiesmagicnum

by Andrew Martin on Jan 26, 2009 3:26 PM MST up reply actions   0 recs

This happens every year

Clint serenades Renck and the rest of the beat writers with his hardscrabble wisdom about fundamentals and sac bunts, and how the team will be aggressive. I would hope that every team practices pitchers covering first, instead of say just having an impromptu home run contest during spring training.

by moomacher on Jan 26, 2009 7:24 PM MST reply actions   0 recs

Comments For This Post Are Closed


User Tools

Welcome to the SB Nation blog about the Colorado Rockies, established 28 April 2005.

Community Guidelines

Start posting about the Rockies »

Join SB Nation and dive into communities focused on all your favorite teams.

Connect_with_facebook

Cbs_fantasy_baseball_promo

FanPosts

Community blog posts and discussion.

Recommended FanPosts

Thinkimadetherightchoice_small
A Quick Investigation into the Aerodynamic Drag on Fly Balls at Coors

Recent FanPosts

Dsc00219_small
Purple Row Thank You Card
Fire2_small
The Prologue to the Season...Finally
Me3
Rockaholics Anonymous: Speak Rockaholic?
Small
The Moment You Knew...
Sleepy_jeff_small
Purple Row Fantasy Leagues 2010
Helton_small
Spring Training Questions
Newport_bridge_small
Take Your Pick
Helton_small
MLB 2K10
Small
Fans await opening day

+ New FanPost All FanPosts >

Colorado Sports Blogs

Mile High Report (Denver Broncos)
Mile High Hockey (Colorado Avalanche)
Pickaxe and Roll (Denver Nuggets)
The Ralphie Report (CU Buffaloes)

Top 30 PuRPs

  1. Christian Friedrich, LHP
  2. Tyler Matzek, LHP
  3. Jhoulys Chacin, RHP
  4. Esmil Rogers, RHP
  5. Eric Young, Jr., 2B/CF
  6. Wilin Rosario, C
  7. Hector Gomez, SS
  8. Michael McKenry, C
  9. Rex Brothers, LHP
  10. Casey Weathers, RHP
  11. Chris Balcom-Miller, RHP
  12. Tim Wheeler, OF
  13. Charlie Blackmon, OF
  14. Samuel Deduno, RHP
  15. Nolan Arenado, 3B
  16. Brandon Hynick (traded to CWS), RHP
  17. Chris Nelson, SS/2B
  18. Juan Nicasio, RHP
  19. Cole Garner, OF
  20. Chaz Roe, RHP
  21. Kiel Roling, 1B
  22. Parker Frazier, RHP
  23. Delta Cleary, OF
  24. Darin Holcomb, 3B
  25. Shane Lindsay, RHP
  26. Matt Reynolds, LHP
  27. Mike Zuanich, OF
  28. Scott Robinson, OF
  29. Edgmer Escalona, RHP
  30. Ben Paulsen, 1B
updated 9/14/2009


Managers

Me_small Russ Oates

Rox_girl_small Rox Girl

Staff

Reynolds_small Silverblood

Seth_smith_0004_2_small Andrew Martin

Sleepy_jeff_small Jeff Aberle

Coorsfield3_small Bryan Kilpatrick

67880020--bled-slovenia_small Andrew T. Fisher

Rowbot Radio

Deep_forest_small WolfMarauder