Monday Rockpile: K/100 Pitches and the Rockies
Over at The Baseball Analysts, Rich Lederer looks at the best and worst pitchers according to the number of strikeouts a pitcher had per 100 pitches. Lederer offers a number of links to stories he wrote over the last few years on this stat, which you should read, and Lederer finds that:
Not surprisingly, K/P has the highest correlation to ERA and RA. K/BF has the second-highest correlation and K/IP has the lowest correlation. In any other words, K/P > K/BF > K/IP.
There were 142 qualifying pitchers in this study (he provides a link to an Excel table if you want to see every pitcher), but I went through it and picked out the Rockies that qualified in 2008.
| Rank | Player | K/100P |
| 21 | Jorge De La Rosa | 5.67 |
| 43 | Ubaldo Jimenez | 5.13 |
| 93 | Jeff Francis | 3.94 |
| 130 | Aaron Cook | 3.13 |
| 142 | Livan Hernandez | 2.39 |
| 107 | Greg Smith | 3.59 |
| 117 | Jason Marquis | 3.42 |
Livan Hernandez ranked dead last. Moving on, according to Lederer's distribution table, De La Rosa and Jimenez were better than average, while all the others fell below the median. But let's take a look at the 2007 chart for K/100P (compiled from Lederer's top 80 article linked to in the above link):
| Rank | Player | K/100P |
| 33 | Jeff Francis | 4.73 |
| 66 | Jason Marquis | 3.60 |
| 78 | Livan Hernandez | 2.68 |
| 80 | Aaron Cook | 2.53 |
Despite being near the bottom in 2008, Cook actually improved from his 2007 number, which we saw translated into his best season yet. Francis's 0.79 dip offers a bit of insight into the wrong turn he took in 2008.
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Troy Renck writes about the approach Clint Hurdle will take with the players during Spring Training: back to the basics, the fundamentals. Renck closes with this:
So if the Rockies start poorly again, it won't be because of Holliday or because they weren't ready.
"Fire Hurdle!" "The guys just suck!" Those'll be the alternative explanations for a poor start. Not that the former isn't already heard often.
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Atkins on his place with the team:
“I don’t know if it’s being selfish or whatever, but I just think that they’re a better team with me here.”
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Baseball America should unveil their Rockies' Top 10 Prospects List later today.
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14 comments
Comments
This Study
is ridiculous. By trying to rank the best pitchers by K/P is bad science at best. Was Greg Smith and Jason Marquis really as good of a pitcher last year as Aaron Cook? Was Livan almost equal? I wonder where Wang Ranked.
by wolf213 on Jan 26, 2009 9:52 AM MST reply actions 0 recs
Wang didn't qualify
since he didn’t reach 100 IP.
But you’re missing the point here. He’s not saying that Smith and Marquis were as good as Cook was last season. If you charted out every pitcher on a graph, Cook would be in the “low K, high groundball rate” quadrant. It’s really a combination of his groundball rate and increased K/100P (if you follow this line of thinking) that led to Cook’s season. Smith and Marquis don’t have comparable groundball rates to Cook’s. Combined with their low K/100P (again, if you follow this line of thinking), Smith and Marquis were nowhere as good as Cook.
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by Russ Oates on Jan 26, 2009 10:27 AM MST up reply actions 0 recs
Did you read the original article?
It’s not completely ridiculous, although the reasoning behind it is somewhat difficult to follow. The purpose is to identify the pitchers who are best at throwing and missing bats. The idea is that there are two better ways to measure a pitcher by strikeouts than K/9:
1)K/BF (batters faced) and K/100P. K/BF filters out, by identifying efficiency , pitchers who allow a lot of walks, hits, and HPB.
2) K/100P identifies those who don’t allow BB, H, or HBP, as well as those who throw the least pitches per strikeout (the idea being that, during a game, a pitcher who can strikeout batters on 3 pitches is going to record outs more quickly and pitch deeper into games). Read this column from 2006:
Just as striking out the side in order is preferred over getting all three outs via the K regardless of the number of batters faced, a pitcher who strikes out hitters on three pitches is more effective than those who take five or six to get the job done. By definition, he is missing bats a higher percentage of the time and is also more likely to pitch deeper into games and record a greater number of outs than his counterparts.
Once the reasoning behind the stat is understood, it’s relatively simple math (say, compared to the defensive +/- rankings). It’s not identifying the most successful pitchers by ERA or W/L, it’s showing the pitcher who is best at missing bats and getting outs quickly without needing his defense, with the understanding that this is the most efficient way to prevent baserunners and runs scored. Cook is not a strikeout pitcher, but does a good job of getting outs by way of his prowess for groundballs and his defense. His success will always vary based on the quality of defense behind him. Joe Saunders, Jamie Moyer and John Lannan are others that had good years and are far down on the list.
by deacs on Jan 26, 2009 10:52 AM MST up reply actions 0 recs
Makes Sense
I’d be more interested in seeing Outs/100P as some sort of overall efficiency metric. There’s more to getting outs than punchouts.
Relax, all right? Don’t try to strike everybody out. Strikeouts are boring! Besides that, they’re fascist. Throw some ground balls – it’s more democratic.
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by Andrew Martin on Jan 26, 2009 1:22 PM MST up reply actions 0 recs
If you measured Outs/100P, I think everybody would be tied.
by onholliday on Jan 26, 2009 1:27 PM MST up reply actions 0 recs
No...
I’ve seen pitchers not make it past the 4th but still find themselves at 100 pitches. If you did Outs/9innings, then yes, everyone would be at 27.
Cook tossed that CG with like 85 pitches or something, I’m wagering his Outs/100 pitches was like 30+. Looks like it’s 31.76 outs/100 pitches at that rate (assuming the number was 85).
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by Andrew Martin on Jan 26, 2009 2:33 PM MST up reply actions 0 recs
I think he
threw one with 74 pitches once. Totally kickass.
by Resolution on Jan 26, 2009 3:18 PM MST up reply actions 0 recs
Ok..
so he’s good for 36.4864865 outs. That’s like a complete game combined with 3 extra innings. That’s Halladay-esque there.
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by Andrew Martin on Jan 26, 2009 3:24 PM MST up reply actions 0 recs
K/P also doesn't account for batters
If I had to face a lineup of Pat Burrell, Jack Cust, Adam Dunn, Chris Iannetta, Brad Hawpe, Ryan Howard, Carlos Pena, Jim Thome, and Jeremy Hermida, then yeah, I’ll get my strikeouts, but it’ll be on like 6 or 7 pitches.
Now if it was a lineup of Carlos Gomez, Matt Kemp, Dan Uggla, Mark Reynolds, Chris Young, Kevin Kouzmanoff, Ryan Braun, Jhonny Peralta, and Bill Hall, I might be more prone to getting them in that 3 or 4 pitch window.
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by Andrew Martin on Jan 27, 2009 12:57 PM MST up reply actions 0 recs
While I was reading Renck's article
all I could think was, “Well no kidding Hurdle.”
Fundamentals aren’t just for the young kids. They’ve got to be worked on ALL the time. The fact that Hurdle seems to fall in and out of this idea just astounds me.
by pedalpusher on Jan 26, 2009 10:20 AM MST reply actions 0 recs
I like the concept
that instead of practicing “fundamentals”, they’ve practicing non-fundamentals, like trick plays or something. “OK guys, now we’re going to work on how to take that outside slider between the 3rd/SS gap with a hard grounder. Once we get that down, we’ll work on trying to take belt-high inner half fastballs to the opposite field. While you guys are doing that, Tulo and Atkins will practice throwing left handed.”
by Teekalong on Jan 26, 2009 3:03 PM MST up reply actions 0 recs
You sound sarcastic
But you’ll swallow your words when the Rockies are supreme at this year’s MLB Street competition.
by Resolution on Jan 26, 2009 3:20 PM MST up reply actions 0 recs
Hawpe might as well have been throwing left handed
hangon wait…
right handed…
no handed…
…
Hawpe stinks in RF.
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by Andrew Martin on Jan 26, 2009 3:26 PM MST up reply actions 0 recs
This happens every year
Clint serenades Renck and the rest of the beat writers with his hardscrabble wisdom about fundamentals and sac bunts, and how the team will be aggressive. I would hope that every team practices pitchers covering first, instead of say just having an impromptu home run contest during spring training.
by moomacher on Jan 26, 2009 7:24 PM MST reply actions 0 recs

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