Thursday Rockpile: Dex an unknown, but a good one
by Rox Girl on Jan 29, 2009 9:16 AM MST
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PrintThere are going to be stories every Spring that you just can't predict very easily. Jeff Francis' bum shoulder would be a powerful case in point on the negative end of that risk spectrum. Given the experience of last season, if news was going to come out about Francis this winter, it was more than likely going to be the kind of bad news we received last weekend. We knew something was fishy. the reasons for his lapse last season were never fully explained, and it made me at least very skeptical of his chances for a complete comeback in 2009.
On the other end of that unknown event spectrum would be the "rookie breakout" where a talented prospect suddenly blooms into a talented MLB player. Troy Renck reports that Fowler has come back from his winter workout program a dozen pounds bigger in one of those "added 12 pounds of muscle" stories we read each preseason. In this case, as was the case with Ubaldo Jimenez last year, I wouldn't just laugh it off so quickly. This is not Pedro Alvarez showing up fat and out of shape, Fowler's been taking part in a careful and supervised offseason program specifically designed by his agency in support of their athletes. At any rate, if Fowler in fact proves ready for full time, contender worthy MLB starting duty out of the gate in April, the Rockies could move back ahead of Los Angeles (even after they sign Manny) in projected lineup contribution next year. Our outfield defense, which Rockies Magic Number pointed out yesterday right now figures to be abysmal, would also experience a huge upgrade.
Fowler talked about being an African-American baseball player with Sidelineshow.com a couple of months ago, there is some wind in the audio, so you may want to adjust your volume controls before hitting the play button:
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I wrote the Rockies section for The Hardball Times 2009 Preview book, mostly fawning over how dreamy Chris Iannetta is, but I also put in some other good stuff. At any rate, you probably already know most of my thoughts regarding the Rox, but you should get this to get similar dirt from the most intense fans in the universe on the other 29 teams.
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Please tell me that you:
A. Called him a Very Special Boy
and
B. Cited my article of the same name :v
Follow me on Twitter! http://www.twitter.com/rockiesmagicnum
This was due in December...
Well before your article, but I did cite your blog as one of my favorites in the “Favorite Rockies Blogs” section.
haha
wooo!
This has more or less become “my blog”
Most of the musings and discussion come in the comments, so I’m trying not to just blatantly crosspost between the two.
Follow me on Twitter! http://www.twitter.com/rockiesmagicnum
by Andrew Martin on Jan 29, 2009 10:20 AM MST up reply actions
When you say...
I wrote the Rockies section for The Hardball Times 2009 Preview book.
Does that mean your work’s in Print? Congratulations! Even if a giant meteor magnet flies by erasing all computer and internet hard drives then your work will still live on in perpetuity! Along with other great writers such as Ernest Hemingway and Alfred Kinsey!
Keepin' warm by the hot stove season.
And Stephanie Meyer....cough cough
But seriously Rox Girl, that’s a tremendous honor
“[The writers chosen] tell you more about the teams and players they’re covering than just about anyone else in the world”
"Winning doesn't really matter as long as you win." - Vinny Jones
by Andrew T. Fisher on Jan 29, 2009 10:53 AM MST up reply actions
oh right
congrats! I buy the hardball times
Follow me on Twitter! http://www.twitter.com/rockiesmagicnum
How many years have you done the preview?
I’ve lost track. At leas three, right?
"If we never try, we shall never succeed." - Abraham Lincoln
Purple Row - Covering all your Rockies needs!
Yes, this was my third...
And the last two I’ve actually received a crisp U.S. Grant bill for it. Well, not really the bill, but it’s equivalent in check form. The fact that it’s a paid gig now makes me very paranoid that they’re going to toss me overboard for someone with actual rather than pretend intelligence but hopefully not until after they cut the check.
Wow with $50 bucks you could...
Attend the Rockies Home Opener in lovely section 328 Row 16!! Isn’t that near the Purple Row? Or you could spend it on more economical things like 500 shares of Circuit City Stock!!!
Keepin' warm by the hot stove season.
Oh, and
we’re all really waiting for that article about how loose the guys are when they start ST.
"If we never try, we shall never succeed." - Abraham Lincoln
Purple Row - Covering all your Rockies needs!
And
Who’s in the best shape of their lives. Always one of my fave raves.
I cannot say whether things will get better if we change; what I can say is they must change if they are to get better. -Georg C. Lichtenberg:
Mine is the "new pitch" stories
where a guy now has a new weapon, almost always a cutter, that will help him turn the corner in the upcoming season. Said pitch rarely shows up by the time the season roles around.
Well, some of them are married
but I can’t speak for the single guys.
Follow me on Twitter! http://www.twitter.com/rockiesmagicnum
by Andrew Martin on Jan 29, 2009 11:26 AM MST up reply actions
Congrats on the Hardball Times piece!
That’s awesome.
by Brendan Scolari on Jan 29, 2009 1:24 PM MST reply actions
What's the deal with Fowler?
I’ve read a lot of the comments on Fowler, and I’m not sure which stance people are taking as a majority.
Is the feeling that he’ll break through in ST and be a stud?
Are we thinking he’ll be a mid-to-late season callup, slowly progress, and then win RoY in 2010?
Or are we thinking that he’ll actually produce in 2010?
Or on the other side completely, we’re getting too excited about him, and he’s gonna be a complete flop?
My friend thinks the last one.
Follow me on Twitter! http://www.twitter.com/rockiesmagicnum
Your friend's not really into baseball, is he?
Fowler’s not going to be a complete flop. At the very minimum (barring catastrophic injury) he’s going to be what Willy Taveras could have been had he any patience at all. At the upper end of his potential, he’ll be like Carlos Beltran.
He is, but he's been burned before
By Choo Freeman. That was his big comparison. I pointed out how destructively better Fowler was at a comparable level and age. He isn’t having any of it, but he’s willing to be proven wrong.
Follow me on Twitter! http://www.twitter.com/rockiesmagicnum
by Andrew Martin on Jan 29, 2009 2:59 PM MST up reply actions
Ha ha, Choo Freeman
Definitely the starting center fielder and leadoff hitter on the All-Time ‘Rockies That I Enjoyed At A Level Vastly Disproportionate To Their Talent" Team. I don’t know who else is on that team, but Brian Bohanon is for sure the starting pitcher – that’s the name I blog under at my new blog (which is linked below, and you should totally check out the tag for our Rockies articles at that blog since I write most of them – not that I’m whoring the blog or anything).
Staying on the sunny side of Blake Street since 1993.
MHCSports - Denver sports analysis from Denver sports fans
For me....
Off the top of my head, including a few free agents to help round out the team. My all-time anti-climax Rockies roster:
LF – Derrick Gibson (My #1 all-time letdown)
CF – Choo Freeman
RF – Dale Murphy (I am grateful he was a Rockie for awhile though)
3B – Can’t think of one. Maybe Cirillo, but he did net us Tito
SS – Juan Uribe and Neifi Perez both had ok careers…. But still, for all that hype?
2B – Roberto Mejia
1B – Jay Gainer (just because his first AB was a HR)
C – Who was that prospect we got from the Astros (or was it dbacks) late 1990s-ish?
SP1 – Greg Harris (the first cut is the deepest)
SP2 – Mike Hampton
SP3 – David Neid
SP4 – Mark Thompson (an example that minor league numbers can fool ya)
SP5 – That guy who almost threw a no-hitter his first game (in New York I think), and then was never heard from again.
Closer – Juan Acevado perhaps. Maybe Keith Shepherd (was that his name?)
JD Closser?
He’s a good pick for that position
I’ll keep your outfield, but I’m going with Jose Ortiz at second (I really bought that Keystone Combo hype) and my rotation would be:
Hampton
Chin Hui Tsao
John Thomson
Nied
Darryl Kile
Oh man Closser
The same friend who made the Choo Freeman comment basically said he wasn’t impressed with Iannetta because his batting style resembled Closser’s.
Follow me on Twitter! http://www.twitter.com/rockiesmagicnum
by Andrew Martin on Jan 29, 2009 4:44 PM MST up reply actions
this could be a topic for a nice fan post/thread!
Catcher: while JD Closser is a good candidate, I’d like to go with Ben Petrick. He was going to be the next Mike Piazza. Closser was going to be a nice everyday catcher….so based on expectations….Petrick was the bigger bust.
3b: Can I nominate Todd Ziele? he wasn’t so much a bust, as a late in his career fill-in, but by the time Todd and his red bat showed up, his career was way done.
1b: Honorable mention: Ryan Sheally
2b: Honorable Mention: Jason Nix
"Suck it monkeys, the Rockies will win this year", Rox Girl 1-11-2009
I think you mentioned this a couple of times
About Petrick being a bust, and then someone follows up with “but he had parkinson’s!”
Shealy was awesome in Coors, for the record. When Helton went down, Shealy tore the cover off of the ball.
Too bad for KC that was the end of that….
Follow me on Twitter! http://www.twitter.com/rockiesmagicnum
by Andrew Martin on Jan 29, 2009 7:37 PM MST up reply actions
Yes
Petrick ended up having Parkinson’s…which is very tragic…and it does explain him not living up to his expectations…but does that mean he’s not a “bust”?
Wouldn’t that line of thinking excuse Mike Hampton, as Hampton was injured much of his Rockie career?
To me he was really, really hyped….and he didn’t live up to any where near that hype, thus I think he’s still a bust..
"Suck it monkeys, the Rockies will win this year", Rox Girl 1-11-2009
It's a personal thing
I can see listing guys who had tragic ends to their careers on a list like this. I mean, those truly are the most notable and unfair careers that were never allowed to blossom. I just couldn’t get myself to type their names on my list. Had a hard enough time listing Dale Murphy. It pained me to watch him try to run out the couple of hits he did have as a Rockie, but I still couldn’t wait until he got another at bat and was glad I had the oppurtunity to see him play. I think my point is this: Just because those guys were my biggest Rockie disappointments, doesn’t mean I think poorly of them. In a lot of ways, those guys are still some of my favorite Rockies players. Except Shepherd. He was a punk.
My list
Was sort of intended to be a list of guys I enjoyed watching even though they weren’t very good, not guys who disappointed me. But unfortunately the depth chart on the ‘All-Disappointment Team’ runs two or three deep at just about every position.
My All-Guys I Inexplicably Liked Team definitely would feature JD Closser behind the plate – I rooted hard for that guy to turn it around, and he had some hilarious hitting music (“Hey!” by Bubba Sparxxx, if I remember right). Josh Fogg, naturally. Aaron Miles belongs. I have to find a place for Jayhawk Owens – on name alone he was one of my favorites on the inaugural Rox. Ray King’s in the bullpen with Jose Mesa. Jack Cust is in the outfield with Choo and Trenidad Hubbard.
Oh, and Eddie Garabito! Can’t forget him – man, I was a big fan because he always looked so happy in every program photo I saw of him.
Staying on the sunny side of Blake Street since 1993.
MHCSports - Denver sports analysis from Denver sports fans
Then there's
My All-Guys I Rooted For Mostly Out of Pity, which features Mike Hampton, Denny Neagle, Tom Martin… and that’s the list. I’m a sucker for soft-tossing southpaws, what can I say. I guess I see them as kindred spirits.
Staying on the sunny side of Blake Street since 1993.
MHCSports - Denver sports analysis from Denver sports fans
Curtis Leskanic!!
He acted like a southpaw, even shaved his arm to reduce drag.
Keepin' warm by the hot stove season.
I was waiting
for Leskanic. As I recall, it wasn’t just his arm he shaved. In that first season, I can recall old Charlie talking about Leskanic shaving his body every time he came in. Creepy/funny stuff.
Jason Bates, Darren Holmes, Angel Echevarria and the original Q all make my list of bizarre personal favorites. Marvin Freeman too. Hell, I love pretty much every former Rockie except Kurt Manwaring.
As to a prior question, was it Mark Brownson that had that one shining moment in NY (I think he hit a bomb, too) never to be heard from again? I suspect it was that Livan Hernandez heat that did him in. I think 56 on the curve?
Anyway, topping my list will always be Chacon. Damn I loved that guy. Through it all. I’d be stoked if they signed him tomorrow. I stopped hating the Yankees because of him. I know its crazy. I don’t care.
Brownson
threw a complete game shutout in Houston in 1998 in his MLB debut, then got shelled for 7 runs in 4.1 innings at Coors. He had 7 very lackluster starts in 1999 and that was it.
It was Jason Jennings who had the complete game shutout in New York with a home run. No Rockie has ever thrown a no hitter…
"Winning doesn't really matter as long as you win." - Vinny Jones
by Andrew T. Fisher on Jan 30, 2009 8:25 AM MST up reply actions
Fowler
I have heard many people say that he looked horrible in his AB’s last year and that he is a year away…I disagree…he may not be ready to start in CF and leadoff in the big leagues, but I think he shows promise. He tore it up in Tulsa, Im not sure why people are so negative about him…I mean, come on, we just suffered through the Willy Taveras years…does it get worse?
Well yeah.....
in Fowler’s limited exposure in the majors last year, he was much worse, as Fowler batted a whopping. .154….he also is listed at weighting 175 lbs. AND he was just as over matched in the Olympics which is basicly a AA all-star tourny.
That’s not saying he can’t eventually make it ….but what many Rockies fans have gotten to see so far…..is a kid that was over matched at the big league level.
"Suck it monkeys, the Rockies will win this year", Rox Girl 1-11-2009
Did you get up and watch him in the Olympics?
He started a little slow but came on strong as was one of their better players at the end of pool play. He never appeared over matched in his AB’s in the Olympics and his numbers are highly skewed by sample size.
Maybe overmatched at the big league level, but overmatched is the wrong choice of word for his Olympic experience.
yes I watched baseball in the Olympics
in fact I was even part of a few game threads here on the row. There were feeds on the internet from NBC.
Fowler had a cumulative .250 batting average, and struck out 4 times in only 28 At Bats. He should up small going O-fer against Cuba. Not exactly sparkling numbers. And yes, he looked over-matched in the Olympics in the games I saw.
"Suck it monkeys, the Rockies will win this year", Rox Girl 1-11-2009
A K rate of 14% is being overmatched?
Fowler’s minor league K rate has hovered around 20, that’s just who he is. Overmatched is Carlos Gonzalez’ 26 K rate in the majors.
I just think using a small sample like the Olympics is a confirmation bias.
I agree the Olympics is a small sample size
but given the level of the competition, I was hoping for/expecting a “man among boys” look to Fowler, but that’s not what I saw.
Yes, Fowler had amazing numbers in AA Tulsa, but Tulsa isn’t the major leagues. Like I said in my first post, that’s not saying he can’t make it eventually, but from last year’s performance, Fowler didn’t look like he is ready for the show which was Sandlot’s question.
"Suck it monkeys, the Rockies will win this year", Rox Girl 1-11-2009
I'm not saying he IS ready, persay
I just think too much context is being ignored. All things being equal, sure, Fowler could have performed better in both locales, but the context of each situation was very unique and not typical for the purposes of evaluation.
The Olympics are by and large an experience unique to professional ball players (unless you include the WBC), in that you temporarily leave everyday action in a controlled setting and join, as you put it, a minor league all star team, for sporadic play in a completely different setting.
Coming back state-side and upon being called up, Fowler was back to sporadic action, going 3-4 games between starts and spending a good amount of time as a late entry.
I just don’t think either situation proves much because they aren’t typical situations or ripe for an accurate assessment.
we really
have no clue how ready if at all Fowler is for the MLB. His AA numbers last season totally kicked ass but he also had a BABIP of .409. The bright side is he’s shown an ability to sport a high BABIP, the bad news is .409 is still around .50 points higher than what I’d feel comfortable saying is his normal level.
So last season could be lucky (I suppose technically it was), but perhaps he did make improvements that were masked by the high BABIP or something. I guess if he makes a mockery of spring training it wouldn’t be too bad to let him start off on the Rox but he probably could benefit from some more AA or AAA ab’s.
I also would completely ignore whatever Fowler did in the Olympics and on the Rockies this past year, but hey, that’s just me.
MILB BABIP's can be misleading
In most cases, great prospects will have abnormally high BABIP’s, simply because they are too good for their league:
Matt Wieters: .388
Alcides Escobar: .375
Lars Anderson: .367/.435
Josh Vitters: .383
Cameron Maybin: .375
Those are just a few examples. It’s kind of like a fifth grader playing in first grade tee-ball, just because he’s crushing hits doesn’t mean he’s lucky, he’s just better.
Fowler’s high BABIP tells me that A) He’s fast from home to first, and B) He was generally better than the competition he faced.
Well,
Fowler doesn’t have too much data and he’s been somewhat of a rollercoaster. His 3 BABIP’s (in chronological order) are .352, .363, and .409. He’s always had pretty high BABIP’s but I wouldn’t really say he’s been dominating levels like Wieters. Perhaps his power/speed combo allows him to post higher than average BABIP’s and in conjunction with minor league BABIP’s always seeming a little higher, his BABIP’s have been fairly high – so then this goes to the question I’m concerned with which is how does this translate in the majors?
His 2007 season was cut short by an injury, but did he also have one that would have sapped some of his performance at some point? (I feel like there was an injury aside from the one that ended his season).
At any rate, what I’m basically saying is that it seems as if there could be a lot of noise in his numbers so far. His high BABIP tells me any of the following 3, he’s fast from home to first, he was generally better than the competition he faced, or he was the beneficiary of some sweet luck. I think if he begins this year at AA or AAA, it will go along way towards quieting some of the noise in his data.
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