Friday Rockpile: Hurdle on the hot seat; Fogg likely this weekend; Smith for Opening Day?

by Rox Girl on Jan 30, 2009 7:50 AM MST in Rockpile Comment 27 comments

Tracy Ringolsby lists Clint Hurdle as one of five managers who will be looking over their shoulder as the season begins. Hurdle's tenure with the Rockies has included just one winning season in seven tries, and while a couple of his early years saw him guiding a team without competitive talent, that excuse no longer applies. Critical decisions which Hurdle could be judged on this Spring include how he resolves the Rockies outfield situation and how he builds his rotation and bullpen, including who the Rockies decide to keep and who they wind up losing for cheap.

Troy Renck notes that Josh Fogg is getting close to making a decision, and is leaning toward joining the Rockies on a minor league contract as soon as this weekend. Jeff Francis' shoulder situation probably makes marginal starters like Fogg more interested in the team, as they will see a clearer path to big league innings.

While Thomas Harding's suggestion that Greg Smith might be a darkhorse candidate to start for the Rockies on opening day might seem a little off the wall at first, the idea of putting one of the team's lesser starters in that slot does have some strategic merit for a team like the Rockies, who lack the quality ace of our divisional foes, but typically will have higher quality pitchers in the other slots. The Rockies would essentially be acknowledging that they don't have the horse to compete on the first day of a rotation and look for some dragonslayer type of luck, but trade that for an upgrade in their chances in days 2-5. Of course, after a few weeks it all starts to get jumbled anyway, but sacrificing one loss to win four in the first month is a sound strategy on the surface.

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Lots of coaching changes for Rocks in the off-season that were needed but...

am I in the minority that I’m not fired up about Apadoca? Maybe he has the confidence of the pitching staff but I just don’t feel good about him. Not sure why. Maybe it’s because of the staff’s performance.

by pedalpusher on Jan 30, 2009 8:45 AM MST reply actions 0 recs

I'm not a fan of his either,

But as Franchise26 reminded me earlier, it was Apodaca who presided over the pitching staff of 2007 that was the best in team history, and, when you look back, the 2006 staff was pretty good as well. So, I’ve come around to the notion that he deserves to at least start the season as our pitching coach and see how it goes. If the regressions of 2008 continue, then it’s probably the end of the line.

I cannot say whether things will get better if we change; what I can say is they must change if they are to get better. -Georg C. Lichtenberg:

by rockhead on Jan 30, 2009 9:01 AM MST up reply actions 0 recs

I was in that camp last summer...

But on closer scrutiny, the pitching staff wasn’t the problem last season, the defense behind them was.

Even so, 823 runs was the third fewest given up by a Rockies pitching staff on a full 162 game schedule, Apodaca was the pitching coach for the other two lowest totals in our history as well in 2006 and 2007. What happened in 2008 was more likely the combo of an expected regression and that bad defense I talked about. It was then that I realized that the main reason I didn’t want Apodaca had more to do with his buddy status with Hurdle than his actual performance as a coach.

by Rox Girl on Jan 30, 2009 9:35 AM MST up reply actions 0 recs

I think your last sentence hit the nail on the head.

Good point about the staff’s performance in ’07.

Hopefully with Baylor and Tracey on board, something will rub off on Hurdle.

by pedalpusher on Jan 30, 2009 9:53 AM MST up reply actions 0 recs

Defense

So what were the contributing factors to the poor defense last year?
Hawpe, too much Baker/Barmes at MI positions, Atkins at 3rd, Atkins at 1st?

How do you see the defensive problems being turned around this year?
Clearly a healthy Tulo helps, and as much Stewart at 3B as possible, a healthy Helton should help too – but that 2B and OF D still is going to suffer (ALOT), unless Fowler or CarGon play CF.

by Hizilla on Jan 30, 2009 11:58 AM MST up reply actions 0 recs

That's pretty much how I see it,

I just don’t expect the outfield defense to be as bad last season just because it would be hard to duplicate a performance that poor and they should drift closer to average, which in this case is good for us.

by Rox Girl on Jan 30, 2009 12:21 PM MST up reply actions 0 recs

I badmouth Hawpe's defense a lot

But he’s gonna get better than he was last season. There was a lot of pressure on the guys in 08 and I think it took its toll everywhere.

Follow me on Twitter! http://www.twitter.com/rockiesmagicnum

by Andrew Martin on Jan 30, 2009 2:01 PM MST up reply actions 0 recs

Tulo's defensive numbers really fell off last year

and though I don’t have a link, I remember reading him saythat his injury did play a role in it.

Now, it’s very possible that Tulo’s rookie year was the best defensive year he’ll ever have, but I think a fully healthy Tulo can again return to the upper echelon of plus/minus-UZR rankings. That would make a big difference.

Outfield defense, though, could still get worse before it gets better. The projected starters are collectively worse than the outfield we ended the year with. Holliday, a plus left fielder, likely is replaced by Smith, who was a slightly below average defender last year, and I don’t believe his defensive ceiling is that high. Spilborghs for Taveras may be a bit of a wash positioning-wise, but he lacks the range of Taveras and defensive metrics have typically pegged him as a below average centerfielder. Hawpe is Hawpe. Improvement is a relative word here, simply playing better defense doesn’t move him out of the bad category.

That said, if Gonzalez AND Fowler force their way into the lineup, and Spilborghs moves to a corner, the defense suddenly looks like one of the better ones in the National League. How much these two end up playing will determine how much better our outfield defense is this year, but at this point, we can only assume the infield will make a rebound while the outfield will need to hit more balls in the gap than they end up chasing.

by David OhNo on Jan 30, 2009 6:09 PM MST up reply actions 0 recs

I'm not saying our outfield defense will be good, or even average

Just that it’s bound to move closer to average even while having a temporary downgrade in parts from last season. It’s because last season the outfield on the whole performed well below their true defensive talent level, you’d have expected a -10 run team in the outfield given the players, but we were a -50 run team according to UZR last year. This season, even if we perform to a true talent level of -30, and I don’t believe the outfield’s quite that bad, we’d still be two wins better than we were last season.

by Rox Girl on Jan 30, 2009 6:28 PM MST up reply actions 0 recs

Crystal Ball...

This will be the defensive lineup in 2010 if players develop and regress as expected:
RF:CarGo
CF:Dexter Fowler
LF:Spilly
3B:Ian Stewart
SS:Tulo
2B:Barmes/Nelson/PlayerTBNL
1B:Brad Hawpe
C:A very special boy

Keepin' warm by the hot stove season.

by Charlie77 on Jan 30, 2009 9:33 PM MST up reply actions 0 recs

That's a welcome best case scenario

And a really good, young, athletic team to boot. However, I would imagine this would suggest that Helton decided to retire.

by David OhNo on Jan 31, 2009 9:29 AM MST up reply actions 0 recs

Is there any chance that we would consider signing Orlando Hudson

or would we even want to?

by pedalpusher on Jan 30, 2009 3:15 PM MST up reply actions 0 recs

I want to

But not as if he’d be an integral Cog in our team’s performance.

Last year, Clint Barmes was a 4.0 win player, Orlando Hudson was a 6 run player. Both had a similar amount of PA’s, both due to injury (and Barmes not starting in favor of Baker murdering the baseball). Hudson is the better fielder (according to FRAR) but Barmes had the better bat (according to BRAR). Hudson has the better plate discipline, Barmes has better power.

I’m an OBP guy, I’d rather have Hudson at 2B, and let Barmes spell him regularly as to keep him healthy. Stewart ends up in LF.

Follow me on Twitter! http://www.twitter.com/rockiesmagicnum

by Andrew Martin on Jan 30, 2009 4:36 PM MST up reply actions 0 recs

Yet should we put any stock in Barmes bat?

His offense from last year is being upheld by a huge home/road split and virtually no improvement in his K and BB rates from his ‘06 season. Coors did an excellent job masking his offensive shortcomings, and I think his relative offensive value is overstated. While there’s nothing wrong in having players that can capitalize on a home field advantage, it’s reasonable to say that Hudson too could experience a huge home bump at Coors and could make the offensive difference between the two pretty substantial.

Bottom line, Hudson or no, betting on Barmes in ’09 looks more likely to backfire once again.

by David OhNo on Jan 30, 2009 6:17 PM MST up reply actions 0 recs

I'm completely with you on this.

Barmes is a BABIP guy. That’s about it.

Follow me on Twitter! http://www.twitter.com/rockiesmagicnum

by Andrew Martin on Feb 2, 2009 12:25 AM MST up reply actions 0 recs

Apodaca has only coached

during the time that Colorado has had a humidor. Can we truly compare his staff’s numbers to the ones before him?

Also, if the defense caused the bad pitching numbers in 2008 — doesn’t Apodaca lose some credit for the 2007 staff because of the excellent defense that year?

by BlakeBomber on Jan 30, 2009 10:15 AM MST up reply actions 0 recs

The performance of the pitching staff..

Really sufffered when Apodaca was gone on leave for a death in the family last year.

Keepin' warm by the hot stove season.

by Charlie77 on Jan 30, 2009 12:24 PM MST up reply actions 0 recs

The humidor's only partly responsible,

There’s little doubt that Rockies pitching over the last three seasons has been the best run in franchise history in that department especially with the starting rotations. If you go by ERA+, which is park adjusted and would take the humidor into account but not the defense, the last three seasons have seen the Rockies have the highest three year average (104) in their history, nudging out 1998-2000 when we had Astacio in his prime and a horribly underrated and mostly ignored bullpen.

1993: 88
1994: 96
1995: 109
1996: 94
1997: 99
1998: 103
1999: 96
2000: 110
2001: 101
2002: 92
2003: 95
2004: 89
2005: 93
2006: 105
2007: 111
2008: 96

by Rox Girl on Jan 30, 2009 12:41 PM MST up reply actions 0 recs

Thanks for the numbers

it’s encouraging to see that the humidor isn’t the only reason.

by BlakeBomber on Jan 30, 2009 1:01 PM MST up reply actions 0 recs

Harding's Idea

I don’t like it. I think that admission would do more to damage the morale of our pitching staff than anything.

by onholliday on Jan 30, 2009 9:00 AM MST reply actions 0 recs

Well you wouldn't phrase it like that to the pitchers themselves,

You would use something like Harding’s spin that Smith has something to play for against Arizona since they were the ones that traded him away.

I would think losing would do more to damage the morale of the team than setting up the pitchers to give us the best chance to win, anyway.

by Rox Girl on Jan 30, 2009 9:38 AM MST up reply actions 0 recs

the sales spin

would be, we are setting up our rotation for our home opener and our home fans…..which of course would be pure bs, but the idiots on “The Fan” and those that post at the Denver Post would totally buy it.

"Suck it monkeys, the Rockies will win this year", Rox Girl 1-11-2009

by Redhawk on Jan 30, 2009 10:42 AM MST up reply actions 0 recs

The Rockies tried this a few years ago...

When they started Kennedy over Jennings. It seemed like the beginning of the end to the Jennings era because of the way the pitcher responded.

Keepin' warm by the hot stove season.

by Charlie77 on Jan 30, 2009 12:26 PM MST up reply actions 0 recs

Kennedy earned it

The previous season, he set the franchise record for ERA. Not quite a rotation bubble candidate like Smith….a more apt comparison might be Shawn Estes

"Winning doesn't really matter as long as you win." - Vinny Jones

by Andrew T. Fisher on Jan 30, 2009 1:03 PM MST up reply actions 0 recs