Atkins or Stewart at 3rd
by letsgopurple on Jan 7, 2009 8:43 PM MST
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PrintDoes anyone know who is the starting 3rd basemen? They both have power. But Stewart is much better than atkins at defense. He covers more ground and will stop playable balls from rolling into the outfield.
If Atkins gets the spot will stewart play left?
If Stewart gets the spot Atkins cant play left. Will he be Heltons backup?
Are the rockies considering moving Garrett Atkins to Starting 1st basemen. If so what will Helton Do?
Eat. Drink. Be Merry. But the above FanPost does not necessarily reflect the attitudes, opinions, or views of Purple Row's staff (unless, of course, it's written by the staff [and even then, it still might not]).
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Man
If anyone figures this one out let me know. I hope Hurdle understands the value of Defense, but nobody around here is convinced that Hurdle understands much.
After that article in Post on Monday
it looks like Atkins at 1st, and Stewart on 3rd, and Hurdle in a walker on the DL
Thought Clint Hurdle should be fired before it was cool.
Um...sorry
that should have been Helton in a walker…not Hurdle
Thought Clint Hurdle should be fired before it was cool.
What article on Monday?
Trying to find it….I thought I read Helton’s rehab was slow-going, but no specific setbacks.
Watching the purple row from high atop the big brown monolith on California Ave
No that one
it just sounded like it was going REAL slow to me….and it’s a back…on an old man.
Thought Clint Hurdle should be fired before it was cool.
I am sure
the article said it was slow going with no setbacks, but it also mentioned that he was shooting for the regular season and not ST. This leads me to believe he might start on the DL and spend extra time in Tucson, but will bounce back when he is ready. I would also like to remind people that Randy Johnson had back surgery and he is 45, albeit close to his finish. But look at what he has done since his first surgery in 1996.
I think Atkins starts the season as the 1B and builds himself a new resume, and when Todd is healthy he takes his position back. Atkins can then be traded and when Todd needs a day off Hawpe comes in and replaces him. Stewart should be at third all season.
"People ask me what I do in winter when there's no baseball. I'll tell you what I do. I stare out the window and wait for spring." ~Rogers Hornsby
JFK
I agree with you...
While the depth would certainly be nice to have, you can’t help but think that feelings would be hurt if one of either Atkins or Helton has to come off the bench for an extended period of time. I like the idea of grooming Hawpe to back up Todd at 1B (and eventually take over the position, hopefully, as he is a butcher in the OF). And, to add to your point about Ian Stewart, someone should resort to physical violence with Hurdle, permanently resulting in him having to use a walker, if he plans on starting anyone else but Stewart at third to begin the season.
Rock rock 'til you drop!
by Bryan Kilpatrick on Jan 8, 2009 7:03 AM MST up reply actions
I made commentary on this
in my own fanpost “reasons we should trade Garrett Atkins”
It looks like, as jrockies suggested, Atkins is the opening day 1B, Stew at 3B, and ifwhen Helton is back, Atkins slides back to 3B, Stew splits between LF and 2B.
It’s not defensively optimal to have Atkins in the lineup.
Atkins, Stewart, and Helton will NOT be playing off the bench. Mark my words. Hawpe, Helton (when healthy), Atkins, Stewart, Tulowitzki are all the full time players. Stewart will just take ABs from Barmes and Smith, unless he goes dead cold.
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?
I really don’t think we should get rid of atty until we know for sure about helt and some of the younger guys. Hawpe and atkins are our pop guys, hopefully stewie and tulo get going early and spilly and chris hit like we know they can. Right now, unless he brings back an ace, we keep atkins at third and stewart in left/second. Or if helt shows signs of not being there, atkins at 1st and stewart at third.
I don't disagree, necessarily
I’m more set on letting Stewart solidify at 3B. It depends on what you value more, glove at 3B or 2B. They’re about equally valuable depending on what metrics you subscribe to. The thought is that Stewart is a +3B, even to – 2B. Atkins is a —3B, —1B. Barmes is a +2B. I’m all about keeping the best bats in the lineup but sacrificing the borderline bats for gloves. It really depends on what your definition of value is. Atkins is a positive, but barely, because of his poor glove. Hawpe is a positive, moreso than Atkins, but again, poor glove hurts him.
It’s interesting when you balance a glove against a bat. A lot of fan favorites and OBVIOUS lineup fixtures become borderline when you think about how poor their glove is.
It’s weird thinking that a big-ish bat becomes as valuable as Clint Barmes when you factor in run prevention.
I may be overstating defense, but I’m convinced it’s not emphasized enough. The Rays conquered the AL East with good defense and good pitching.
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by Andrew Martin on Jan 9, 2009 11:15 AM MST up reply actions
agreed, but
Atkins is your best bat, what im sayin is that until we know more about helt, we need to keep atkins around. The type of naging injury to helt, may bother him all year or parts, which makes him basically useless, i dont think atkins is a horrible fielder{hes made some plays], but stewie is better like you said at the postion. Right now, hurdle and co. have alot to think about
I respectfully disagree
Read my fanpost. Atkins is FAR from our best bat. Hawpe, Iannetta, and Spilborghs are all superior to Atkins. All more patient hitters and it’s paid off for them all.
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by Andrew Martin on Jan 9, 2009 11:55 PM MST up reply actions
You know, that's the thing
I don’t mean to single out SouthernRockie at all.
Nobody can seem to forget the 2006 that Atkins had. It was very, very good. So good, in fact, that we started 07 with a 3-4-5 of Atkins-Helton-Holliday. Clearly didn’t last.
His 2nd half of 07 was downright wicked, but overall, he just seems to have peaked really, really early. He might bounce up again, but he just hasn’t been able to keep together for a whole season.
I’m just confused why people still think he’s this monster, our best bat, when he’s slowly falling apart. I mean, even if he rebounds to a solid .300/.370/.480 season, Hawpe HAS BEEN putting up that season for the past 3, Iannetta and Stewart could both conceivably match that OBP with significantly more power, and Spilborghs could probably beat the OBP (with a little help from a good BABIP) with similar power.
Come on people (in general), look at who we actually have and what they’ve actually been doing, and stop just going off this anecdotal “oh yeah he’s our last big bat” rationale.
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by Andrew Martin on Jan 10, 2009 12:01 AM MST up reply actions
For the same reason you seem to think he's bum
When was he bad? first 1/2 of 07. And 08, was an off year, the type of off year the likes of Adrian Beltre, or Edwin Encanarcion dream about with a lowly .286 average How is 286 bad?. So he’s been very good for 1 1/2 years. and not so good 1 1/2 years. He’s a life time .298 hitter! Unless, something’s changed, that’s pretty darn good!
He’s not a “power hitter” and Atkins will never put up 30 Homers, but that doesn’t mean he’s not a big bat. Watching him he has a text book swing. If I were a hitting instructor, I’d want everyone to swing like Garrett. And that’s why I think .286 is off and not the norm, or a prediction of things to come., especially when his career average is .298. Garrett has had basicly 4 years in the big leagues, it’s almost enough to establish his baseline performance. His age is still ok having just turned 29 in December, so I would think his next couple of years should be around .300 which is his career average. Even Wade Boggs had a bad year in 1992 batting only .259, it can happen to the best of them.
Now if Atkins numbers this year are again around .280 range for the season, I’ll be with you, but I don’t think he will be.
Thought Clint Hurdle should be fired before it was cool.
Again
I’ve never said he was bad. I’m saying that Iannetta and Hawpe have better OBPs and better SLGs than Atkins, hence, BIGGER BATS. (The funny thing about Hawpe and Atkins that I’ve noticed is that when both are firing like normal, neither is especially hot or cold, they’re both right around the same .380 OBP. Atkins’ is more AVG inflated, which is why we’ve seen his OPS drop the past few years – his OBP and SLG are more AVG driven (if that makes any sense) – while Hawpe’s has stayed right around where it has been the past 2 years. Being the 2 best GEN R guys not named Matt Holliday, they’ve really been comparable to each other the entire time.)
I’m not saying “If Atkins doesn’t match Helton’s 2001 season he’s a bum,” I’m saying that he’s declining, is getting impatient, his IsoD is dropping, his AVG is dropping, he has a very defined Coors split, and that people seem to think he’s our best player when he really isn’t.
Again, people misinterpret my “Atkins needs to be traded” as “OMG LAUNCH ATKINS INTO THE SUN!!!!1one” when I’ve tried to emphasize over and over that we have better glovework at 3B in Stewart, a potentially better bat at 3B in Stewart, and as a somewhat out-of-position insurance policy for Helton at 1B, Hawpe’s glove can’t possibly be worse than it is in RF right now at 1B and you have the better bat in Hawpe as well.
Atkins has a good swing, he really does. He’s just thinking that he needs to sack up and beat the ball so hard that the Rockies fire their way into Rocktober again, and he really just needs to calm down and work on making smart contact rather than desperate contact. I truly believe that Don Baylor can help him do this.
I mean seriously, if Atkins comes out of the gates batting .320/.400/.500, pssh, color me backpedaling, because I’ll be so happy to see him unslumped. It’ll be a logjam everyone, including me, loves to have. Granted, I’ll still say trade him, because he’ll be worth more then, but I’ll still be happy for him.
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by Andrew Martin on Jan 12, 2009 1:05 PM MST up reply actions
i must disagree with you
Atkins right now, is the proven bat on our lineup. Yeah when hawpes on hes great, same goes for chris and spilly is on his way, but hawpe slumps alot, chris’s numbers fell towards the end of the year and spilly is not yet ready for the grind of a entire season. who else {power wise do we have}. helt is not the same 40 homer a year guy he was. Tulo is another good one when hes hot but needs to get back to where he was in 07. stewart is yet another on the brink. Atkins is purely our best through and through hitter. He can hit for contact and power. look at what hes done the past three seasons. 06, leads the team in pretty much every catogory. 07, matty emerges as the guy, but atkins is right there, 08, same story matty is the focus but atkins still has good to better numbers. Now I dont love atkins, but if you look at what he brings, it obvious hes got the bat.
???
08, same story matty is the focus but atkins still has good to better numbers
Now, don’t get me wrong, I’m in the camp that Atkins will more likely than not rebound in 2009, but there’s no way, shape or form that you can say he had “good to better” numbers than Matt. The rest of your argument is far too dismissive of Iannetta and Spilborghs and hardly accurate. Here are the top three hitters by month for the Rockies in 2008 according to wOBA, which measures a hitter’s ability to hit for contact, power and his strike zone judgment:
April:
1. Iannetta
2. Podsednik
3. Holliday
(Atkins was 4th, his best month of the season relative to the rest of the team)
May:
1. Barmes
2. Holliday
3. Spilborghs
June:
1. Hawpe
2. Baker
3. Iannetta
July:
1. Spilborghs
2. Holliday
3. Stewart
August:
1. Holliday
2. Hawpe
3. Iannetta
September/October
1. Baker
2. Tulo
3. Iannetta
Iannetta hardly trailed off at all unless you look solely at batting average, which is an outdated measure of offensive performance, he and Holliday tied for the most months carrying the offensive load for the Rockies. And Spilly not ready for the grind of an entire season? The man’s going to be 29 years old this year, if he’s not ready yet, he ain’t never going to be. Atkins may have once been our best, or second best hitter, but we as Rockies fans should be thankful that he’s got some equally, if not more, impressive company now.
Every seems to focus on Atkins average.
But what about RBIs? The last 4 years he’s driven in 89, 120, 111 and 99 for a total of 419. Now I don’t know about the rest of y’all but I think that’s fairly consistent and a far cry from this free fall that he’s supposed to be in.
Comparatively, Holliday drove in 87, 114, 137,and 88 for a total of 426 over the same period. And Helton drove in 96, 79, 81 and 91 (total 347) for the period of ‘04 through ’07 when he played +/-150 games per year. Todd hasn’t driven in 100 runs since ‘03. I’d suggest Todd is the one whose skills have eroded. I just don’t see him coming back to those pre-’04 levels.
We’re going to need Garret to drive in closer to the ‘06 mark than ’05 for sure. Until someone can convince me that Todd is going to be healthy and hitting like he did 4 years ago, I’m still convinced Garrett is going to get the lions share of play at 1B. And 100 RBIs + will be nice to have at that position.
Most modern stats-based analysts
ignore RBIs, since they’re more a measure of OBP of the guys in front of a particular hitter, as well as a function of a particular place in the order.
Ceci n'est pas une signature.
Ignore RBI's?
Are you saying they have no value? I realize that you have to have folks on base before you can drive them in. I’m not that dense. But you also have to have a proven bat that can produce in that situation. And ultimately the team that scores more runs wins the game.
What sabermetric would you suggest?
Over those four year periods you're talking about,
Atkins averaged almost 209 plate appearances with runners in scoring position, Holliday only 193 (and as you point out he drove in more runs despite having 64 fewer RISP opportunities) and Helton only averaged 183 PA’s with RISP between 2004-2007. What’s more, Atkins has been getting considerably worse at driving runners in even as he’s been getting roughly the same opportunities. In 2006 he had 221 PA’s with RISP, last year that number was only six less at 215, yet he drove in over twenty fewer runs.
After re-reading your post, DbacksSkins
I failed to see that you were quoting most modern stats-based analysts. My apologies as I directed my response to you and not to most modern stats-based analysts.
And now can someone please explain to me why Atkins is worse at 3B that Stewart?
I’m sure I’m missing something here, but in 2008 at 3B only:
Atkins had 253 chances with 9 errors which equals to 1 error every 28.11 chances.
Stewart had 177 chances with 10 errors whice is 1 error every 17.7 chances.
Stewart had only 1 error in 55 chances at 2B which would suggest that maybe he’s a better fielder at 2nd than 3rd.
Atkins was throwing to Todd Helton at first, who saves his fielders a ton, Stewart was throwing to Atkins, who does not.
I don’t know, seems pretty clear to me.
Yes....but
you can’t fully dismiss Stewart’s error rate totally on the 1st baseman. In fact I think Stewart has been a little over-rated as a fielder at 3rd here on the Row. Now he seems to have good range, and instincts, and he’s young, so improvement, should come, but he’s no Boog Powell over there yet either.
Thought Clint Hurdle should be fired before it was cool.
I'll agree with you there,
But Stewart’s defense at third still rates as better than Atkins by most of the methods that take everything into effect, even with his ten errors. Atkins just doesn’t get to nearly as much of the plays that he should at third.
Now are we talking about errors or plays you can't get to?
Tell me how you quantify not being able to get to plays. Because plays he can’t get to seems awfully subjective to me unless theres a way to calculate it.
There are ways to calculate it,
Every ball that gets hit that lands in the field of play can be sectioned off into a different zone of responsibility for a fielder. Over the course of many plays, it becomes apparent that Atkins gets to fewer in the traditional third baseman’s area of responsibility than most other MLB third basemen do. There are several different ways of calculating it, the three most respected as accurate are UZR, which says Atkins cost the team just over 7 runs for the plays he couldn’t get to, Dewan’s plus/minus, which has Atkins as the second worst third baseman over the last three seasons, and PMR, which had Atkins the best, eleventh from the bottom this last season.
No matter which way you choose to calculate it, however, Garrett’s below average in all of them.
No that was a joke
so obscure no one would get. Powell was a stiff, and I was making a joke that Stewart wasn’t good YET, by comparing him to the stiff.
"Get better players, make fewer mistakes, and drill the fundamentals into your players' heads. The rest of it is a joke." Barry Switzer on how to have a winning team.
Is this another one of those tounge in cheeks deals?
I didn’t include Atkins defense at 1B which, while it’s not Heltonesque, ain’t terrible. 6 errors in 550 chances for a .990 fielding percentage. I just think Atkins is getting a bum rap and I’m not quite sure why.
What I'm saying is that throwing to a gold glove first baseman
Who’s known for his ability to dig throws out of the dirt and save fielders from getting throwing errors attributed to them which is what Atkins has been blessed to enjoy, is different from throwing to a guy who’s used to playing third base and not as skilled at saving his fielders on their errant throws which is what Stewart has had to do most of the time he plays third.
I’m not anti-Atkins, I believe him to be a useful piece of a MLB ballclub still, but he’s not the Rockies best position player, and he’s probably not even their best third baseman. Still, if he’s at third and Stewart at second, it could be the best alignment for the team offensively given the parts we have, I just worry about how many additional runs this will cost on defense with an already shaky outfield. I would only want that alignment in Francis and JDLR starts, possibly Jimenez to help make up for Ubaldo’s atrocious (even for a pitcher) hitting, but definitely not in Cook or Marquis starts.
I agree with you and so do the numbers that Atkins is the better defensive 3rd basemen
Atkins major league fielding percentage since 2003: .965
Stewarts minor league fielding percentage since 2004: .930
Stewarts major league fielding persentage: .957 (granted not enough big league time for that number to mean much)
Ian Stewart lead both the Rockies and the Sky Sox in errors last year (10 Rockies 16 SkySox)
At the plate you pretty much know what you are going to get with Atkins with the exception of last year when the entire team under performed. Stewart has a minor league history of being a streaky hitter. When he is hot he is really hot. When he is off, it is .230 land. I do like how Stewart handles left handed pitching. If a manager brings in a lefty late in the game they are playing right to his strengh.
I say Stewart to left. He has a good arm and he is athletic. I think his defense could be an asset there. If Helton’s health doesn’t allow him to play then let’s get Joe Koshanski some major league at bats. He has nothing else to prove at the AAA level. (2007: .300, 31HR, 121 RBI, OPS .980, 60 BB)
Outfielders in 2009 my opinion
Left: Stewart
Center: Spillbourhgs
Right: Hawpe
Reserves: Seth Smith then one of the follwoing group
Podsednick (minor league contract today)
Sullivan (if the Mets pass and he comes back)
Fowler (only if he blows people away in spring training)
Gonzalez (again only if he blows people away in spring training)
Christian Colonel (.308 with 17 HR last year, he would need a big spring)
What if the hokey pokey is what it is all about after all????
JoKo is a no go
he’s a prototypical AAAA player. His swing is too long and slow for the major league level. He can hit mistakes at AAA, but in the bigs, not so many mistakes.
Unless a there is a GM reading this looking for some power, and he’s great, and should demand an ace starter in return!
"Suck it monkeys, the Rockies will win this year", Rox Girl 1-11-2009
Eh
You can’t call JoeKo a AAAA player when he’s had roughly zero playing time in the majors. He’s been playing as september callup. I think there’s a lot more potential to Joe Koshansky than we’ve observed, just because he’s been playing under the gun. I know his splits all favor CSprings, but his IsoD has been solid his MiLB career.
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by Andrew Martin on Jan 14, 2009 6:32 PM MST up reply actions
Koshanski
You maybe right, but there is only one way to find out. He has not seen enough consistant big league pitching to know if he will adjust or not.
Last year the defense starting having issues toward the end of the year. Now that could be chalked up to guys knowing the miracle run to the playoffs was not going to happen. It could be that they were trying to hard becasue they had starting pitchers on the mount that had their names velcroed on the back of their jerseys. Or it could be that they were playing a different position than they had played all year long. Well it is a new year, the pitching staff is in pretty good shape (on paper anyway, and let’s face it right now everything about 2009 is on paper only) and if Koshanski and Helton share first and leave everyone else were they are, then maybe the defense that was so important to the Rockies in 2007 can re-emerge.
If Koshanski can’t make the big league adjustment then you go ahead and move Atkins, Stewart and Baker around. I just think that going in Joe has earned a shot. What he does with it is up to him.
What if the hokey pokey is what it is all about after all????
For the record
It’s spelled “Koshansky”
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by Andrew Martin on Jan 15, 2009 8:53 AM MST up reply actions
Defense was having issues at the beginning of the season as well
It will have to be fixed this year if we are to have a shot, both the errors and visible miscues that you bring up as well as the range issues that some of us are talking about.
To your other point, the problem with giving a guy like Koshansky too much of an extended opportunity is that you risk letting yourself slide into too deep a hole too early if he falters. The Rockies first goal should be to use the resources they have to win the division and make the playoffs, and given that they have an opportunity to do that (at least on paper) they should focus on it while it’s still available. That means starting the more sure, reliable players and giving less certain guys like Koshansky more limited opportunities to show they too could be reliable. Once the team has clearly shown itself to be out of the race, then you could start looking to give guys more extended tryouts.
Errors are only part of fielding
Fielding percentage doesn’t really paint the complete picture. If I can’t get to a ball, I can’t make an error on it. But If I can only get to slow grounders hit directly at me with Johnny Estrada running, there’s a very distinct chance I won’t make a lot of errors. Errors have more to do with imperfect throws and imperfect hands. That’s very important, granted, but if Ian Stewart can make it to a good 20% more balls than Atkins (and I’m just making up that 20%) but makes 3 more errors, who is the better fielder? Who made more putouts and who let more balls roll to Holliday in LF?
Do you see where I’m going with this? You can only commit an error on a ball you are able to get to.
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by Andrew Martin on Jan 14, 2009 6:26 PM MST up reply actions
Not to mention
the fact that errors are horribly subjective.
"Of course, it’s downright frightening to imagine how two Adam Dunns would turn the double play." - Joe Posnanski
I keep score at games
and my boxscore will look very different than the scorekeeper’s sometime because of those errors.
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by Andrew Martin on Jan 15, 2009 8:54 AM MST up reply actions
Good point on the throws in the dirt.
Still I think, in the absence of Helton, we’re not terrible with Atkins at 1st.
This is true, I'd rather have Garrett there than Koshansky.
Again, I don’t want to dis on him too harshly, I see him getting overrated by one side of Rockies fans and underrated by the other, he’s a solid ballplayer and we’re better off with him until we know Helton’s healthy than without him.
Does Koshansky field that poorly?
I didn’t think he had enough playing time in the majors to really evaluate him accurately. I mean, UZR suggests he’s above average, but with a grand 70 innings at 1B, I’m not quite set to carve it into the living stone that is First Base.
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by Andrew Martin on Jan 12, 2009 1:17 PM MST up reply actions
My real question it does Atkins really field there as poorly as UZR had him last year?
I’m saying that it’s my belief that a limited sample underrates him at the position just as much. And in all likelihood he will have a more consistent bat than JoKo for next season, so Garrett gets my nod as the better choice for backing up Helton there as long as he’s with the team. I’m not setting anything into stone either, it’s just that this is the way it looks to project to me for right now.
It makes sense
I still just wish we could give JoeKo a shot, but we have too many guys that we need to play 1B, in Helton, Atkins, Hawpe, and THEN JoeKo.
It’s a shame, too. If Koshansky’s defense was good enough, he’d be a great 1B candidate. His numbers look really similar to Hawpe’s. Like a .280/.360/.480 kind of hitter.
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by Andrew Martin on Jan 12, 2009 2:03 PM MST up reply actions
Here's a
Nice little article examining Garrett Atkins. Talks both offense and defense, although no mention of his defense at 1b.
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