Thursday Rockpile: Konnichiwa Tucson; Plus a Fogg warning in effect
by Rox Girl on Jan 8, 2009 8:07 AM MST
in Rockpile
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PrintIt looks like that even though the Rockies and Diamondbacks will be by themselves on the outskirts of the Cactus League this Spring, they might have another team to play ball with in Tuscon by 2010, as the regional sports authority is seeking to add a Japanese team to the mix. I'm not sure how practical this will wind up being, but it's not a terrible idea to deal with the departure of the White Sox.
A blog entry by Troy Renck says that the Rockies budget may no longer have room to add Tim Redding or Josh Fogg, but that they remain interested in both. Ooh... it's time to insert a table. Since we're all about recruiting winners for the Rockies right now, let's look at how many Win Shares each of the primary bottom of the rotation candidates contributed over the last four seasons, courtesy of the Hardball Times:
| Pitcher | 2005 WS | 2006 WS | 2007 WS | 2008 WS | Career WS |
| Jason Marquis | 12 | 1 | 8 | 8 | 56 |
| Josh Fogg | 3 | 5 | 6 | -3 | 34 |
| Tim Redding | -5 | -- | 4 | 5 | 17 |
| Jorge De La Rosa | 2 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 10 |
| Greg Smith | -- | -- | -- | 10 | 10 |
While Smith's 2007 season on the whole trumped JDLR's and should be a good reminder to not count him out, Patrick Saunders and I are in the same camp when it comes to expecting to see the latter win the last rotation slot this Spring. Not so, Dan Szymborski:
Marquis isn't as bad as some statheads think, being a useful 4th starter with a decent health record, but not as good as some casual Cubs fans think, Marquis not being all that good, so while he has some use, with Sean Marshall not traded for Jake Peavy and Chad Gaudin hanging around, the team has rotation replacements. With Luis Vizcaino coming in, I suspect Mike Wuertz will be in a different uniform this season. The Rockies now look to have a Francis-Cook-Jimenez-Marquis-Smith rotation, which will be bland and mediocre as the team heads to another season of being a middle-of-the-pack team in a bad division.
I am, of course, a lot more hopeful that the situation is better than Dan paints it to be. The ZiPS projection for Marquis in Colorado has him coming in at a 5.03 ERA. I project our lineup (with Marquis batting) to score 5.3 runs a game, so I think we could expect to clear a .500 record in his starts, that's about as much as we could wish for from the fourth slot in the rotation and a good start to competitiveness in this division.
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And yes, everyone,
that’s a new Purple Row logo.
"If we never try, we shall never succeed." - Abraham Lincoln
Purple Row - Covering all your Rockies needs!
I noticed that
after browsing around for like 20 minutes.
Whoah
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by Andrew Martin on Jan 8, 2009 9:21 AM MST up reply actions
That movie has really aged like a fine wine, hasn't it?
I’ve got no doubt that people of the future will see it as the pinnacle in American cinema.
Funny how
The one dude is still making movies after all these years and the other dude hasn’t been seen on planet earth since then
Bill S. Preston Esq.
(otherwise known as Alex Winter) is actually a fairly successful Broadway actor, believe it or not. He also writes and directs indie films and commercials.
Sorry, I am a nerd for this movie. One of my favorites of all time.
Wow, good to know.
Had no idea.
By the way, the sequel to the excellent adventure is the worst, most toxically bad movie ever made.
come on
when they play twister with Death, amazing. Inspired.
Ok, so its really bad.
But it has its moments. At least I thought so in college, at about 2:30 am after a fair amount of beers…
by Teekalong on Jan 8, 2009 5:43 PM MST up reply actions 1 recs
+1
Totally agreed.
Watching Bogus Journey twice in a row is a major plot point in the story of a particularly enjoyable evening back in my Gtown days…
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Someone was telling me
how there was like some debate or something and out of all the time travel movies, Bill and Ted was regarded as portraying the most realistic depiction of time travel. See, it’s educational (even more so considering it’s essentially about a history report) as well as awesome (read: most excellent).
+1 to me
for bringing up such fond memories.
…
Sixty-Nine!
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by Andrew Martin on Jan 9, 2009 9:46 AM MST up reply actions
Far beyond my pay grade.
SB Nation hired a new logo artist a few weeks ago and Purple Row was his first try.
"If we never try, we shall never succeed." - Abraham Lincoln
Purple Row - Covering all your Rockies needs!
Replacement Value
Wouldn’t it be more valuable replacing the Baker/Barmes combo with someone like Ray Durham at 2B than signing another pitcher? Durham’s asking price would have to be a lot lower than his 2008 salary, but he had a resonable OBP last season and CF should boost his SLG.
I think an incentive laden contract would be worth the gamble.
TGFPR!!
I was actually thinking about suggesting that as a possibility to consider this morning...
After reading Tom Verducci at SI talk about how his value has eroded this winter. The big issue is that the front office simply doesn’t see second base to be the hole that fans do, but Durham at the very least would equate to putting in a safe floor for what we can project at second in much the same way that Marquis provides stability at the bottom of the rotation.
I agree with them
I don’t really see 2B as a hole. Sure, it could be improved. However, it’s not going to be an automatic out like CF was last year. There is plenty of power there with Barmes and Baker. And defensively it’s also very good with Barmes and Q. It does lack OBP and Avg. However, it does make up for it with raw power.
I guess what I’m saying is that it’s not really worth the effort of improving.
"However, it does make up for it with raw power."
How long has Iggy Pop been manning the bag?
Watching the purple row from high atop the big brown monolith on California Ave
I'm sort of on the fence,
While I don’t exactly see it as a hole, I do think the floorboards are weak and creaky and wouldn’t mind something a little more stable there then what we’ve got. The big concern is that if Barmes performs at the plate like he did in 2006, falling back to Quintanilla or Luis A Gonzalez is trouble and we just don’t know enough of EY2 to project he’d be adequate there. I think if Durham’s value falls far enough, he’d should at least be considered as a useful add-on.
Baker?
Wouldn’t Baker be the fallback guy? Or it’s possible that Baker is the one starting 2B at the beginning of the season with Barmes the fallback guy. I don’t care what the FO says, 2B will be a competition between the two during ST, with Stewart probably getting a few looks also.
But what does taking Baker off the bench cost?
I’ve got a huge post on a related topic in the works, but this touches on what’s a huge weakness with every team in the division.
Right now we have this sort of merry go round set-up, in which everybody shifts positions to cover the but-ifs as far as injuries or crashes in performance are concerned.
Example:
but if Helton can’t come back from his back surgery soon enough, Garret Atkins will take over and Ian Stewart will play third.
What the current roster doesn’t really address is that there’s a decent possibility of multiple organ failure in the lineup:
Helton – back issues
Barmes – possibility collapse to 2006 level
Tulo – 2007 redux? Not the likeliest of scenarios, but it’s there
Atkins – in a steady decline last three seasons, could continue
Smith – unproven and still young enough to be erratic in his performance
Stewart – unproven, possibly erratic
Hawpe, Iannetta and Spilborghs – collapse not likely, but there are always injuries
Now I’m an optimist and don’t expect disaster, but the problem is that there’s a lot of risk already built into the lineup, and after a couple of pegs fall, the whole thing looks pretty shaky. If you’re relying on Baker to be your Plan B for a collapse from Barmes and an injury to Hawpe, what do you do if both happen? What if Atkins gets hurt as well or looks even worse than last season this Spring? We’ve got the little storms covered just fine, it’s that perfect storm of trouble that I worry about, and bringing in Durham would be a considerable pacifier, much more than the club’s idea of going after a right handed outfielder, I feel.
Interesting Contridiction
The FO will go out and sign a dozen pitchers for depth because we’re afraid a couple of them are going to fail, but we won’t go out and sign a suitable option at 2B, which IMO has as equally the chance of failure.
PS – Why isn’t there spell checking available?
TGFPR!!
The problem is...
You just can’t build a team that will have an answer for every conceivable issue that comes up over the season. You can just add depth. But any team out there can say that if they lose three starters, they will be in trouble. Same with the Rockies.
I’m also not sure about Durham as a 3rd middle infielder. I would prefer more defense from that spot on the team as opposed to whatever Durham brings (it’s possible we get 07 Durham, who was quite a bit worse than Barmes last year). You also have to consider if Durham would actually want to be playing off the bench for what could be an entire season.
Lets take your scenario of Barmes struggling, than Hawpe hurt, than an issue with Atkins. Baker would probably start 2B if Barmes has to be removed. Smith could probably take over for Hawpe (this is assuming that Stewart is our left fielder next year). Atkins will be covered by either Joko or we might make a trade at that point to help out.
True, any team can say if they lose three pieces, they are in trouble
But certain teams have a higher likelihood of having those three players get lost, and the Rockies with trouble already on the books at first and second fall into that category. In my mind our options in case of trouble in the outfield (Fowler or Gonzalez getting called up, Spilly sliding over) cover our trouble scenarios out there just fine, but we really have a risk of inadequacy at second (either due to Q or Gonzalez for their lack of bat, or Baker or Stewart due to their lack of glove) and Durham, if his price continues to drop, would provide us that necessary baseline of mere adequacy. His 2007 certainly looks more like an anomaly than anything else given his career and bounce back in 2008. It’s not like any other team is pounding down his door with a guaranteed starting job right now, he should be interested in the situation that gives him the most likelihood of working his way into one, and Colorado seems like a pretty decent option in that regard.
Like I said, I’m on the fence about this, I’m just taking a contrary view right now to push a discussion forward, but having Baker/Durham/Smith would definitely be an upgrade over the Koshansky/Baker/Smith right side you propose in my doomsday scenario, still could be NL West competitive, and not force us to make a trade just to avoid falling into the abyss.
I want to expand on your list of other 2B options and where Durham would fit in there. Q and Gonzalez would lack a bat for sure. Durham would have a better bat than either of them. However, defensively he isn’t even close (Bill James gives him a -12 last year). Baker and Stewart have superior bats to Durham. However, I can’t really say how their gloves will stack up to Ray. In the end, I see Q and Gonzalez and having Great gloves and Baker and Stewart having great bats. Durham I see as being average bat and below average glove with an above average age.
I’m not all that sure if his production in win shares will be worth the price tag that he will come with. And I should point out that the original poster of this idea implied that he would replace Barmes/Baker instead of backing them up. I don’t see that as a viable option either.
Durham is troubling
The sense this summer seemed to be that Durham is not even defensively adequate. Just get a hold of Jamey Carroll again.
Durham shouldn’t/ wouldn’t be able to start when Cook or Marquis pitches, and neither should Baker. Which leaves the positive contributions of those pitchers (and there’s no consistent guaruntee of that with Marquis) in jeopardy. While bats tend to fluctuate and recover some, even as players age, fieldwork generally tends to get worse. And in Durham’s case, it’s already off the cliff. I’d rather see Koshansky at first in a nightmare scenario than watch Durham fumble around at second and bleep everything up. There are enough young players in the system to give a shot before Durham, anyway – EY2, Herrerra – without burning the extra cash. It was no big deal last winter when a little money was spent on Kip Wells and Towers and whoever else was brought in and let go, until it added up to $8M and a significant chunk of payroll was wasted.
I don't think this is that big a deal
We don’t have the money to deal with every contingency. Its going to take a lot of things going going well to very well for us to win the division next year. If the worst case scenario you lay out occurs, it doesn’t matter who is on the bench, because we won’t be going to the playoffs. So I don’t think its something that one should stress over.
Second half run?
This
Exactly this. Why plan for fourth level contingencies? If we get to that stage, honestly, what chance do we even have at competing.
Making the MLB playoffs takes quite a bit of luck and sometimes it just doesnt go your way.
See Francis and Tulo circa 2008
Last year was probably beyond the realm of help,
But it just wasn’t Francis and Tulo or fourth level contingencies, we were seeing critical underperformance from those two, one more slot in the rotation (early in the season, two more slots) a couple of relievers, Helton, Atkins and Hawpe’s defense. That’s eighth level contingencies we were having to deal with, and yeah, if that were the case we’d be pretty much screwed again. Even with that, however, we finished third in the division and had a semi-realistic chance of clawing back into it toward the end of August. If we were only dealing with fourth level contingencies, the thought of contention wouldn’t be that far out of reach.
In the end, I think I agree the points made about Durham not being the best choice to deal with the sort of contingency I’m talking about given that he’s still probably looking for sums that make it impractical, but I think that the principle of being ready for that kind of event has some merit, particularly since no other team in the division is close to being that prepared.
It’s within the Rockies grasp to open a second avenue to a division title outside the stay close and hope for a kick at the end ala 2007 method based on a tortoise beating the hares approach of steadily overtaking the opposition while they’re crashing and recuperating. Right now, I’m hopeful that one of our many middle infield parts is part of the solution, but second base and catcher are the weak links in the strategy.
Maybe
since I still don’t think 2009 will be the year of the Rockies (though I am optimistic), the FO just decided it would be better not to mess around with signings and hope that this time next year one of their many 2b prospects will emerge. Does that make sense? I can’t tell if that sounds pragmatic with some long-term sight or just stupid…
I was thinking the same thing
When I read today that the Red Sox had signed Smoltz and Baldelli as Contingencies and Luxuries just because they had the money sitting around.
I hate this game sometimes!!!
by Roberbola on Jan 8, 2009 3:30 PM MST up reply actions 1 recs
Durham wouldn't be a bad pickup
He’s a career 104 OPS+ kind of guy. He has a good eye, and his bat is always >100 OPS+. His 2007 was a bad case of the BABIP bug, but none of the projections like him as the career .360 OBP he seems to be.
If he’s not demanding like $$$$$$$$$$ and would want to stay in the NLW, sure, give him a call.
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by Andrew Martin on Jan 9, 2009 10:04 AM MST up reply actions
I think I had a dream last night
that Randy Johnson had signed with the Rockies. My dreams really suck. But RJ would’ve been a pretty sweet rotation addition…
And then he was like....
“SYKE!!!” and signed with the Giants. It was not a dream, but rather, a nightmare….
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Just fyi,
this is remarkably similar to the nightmares AZ fans are having….
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That's funny
I dreamed we traded for John Lackey.
Not even kidding.
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by Andrew Martin on Jan 9, 2009 9:52 AM MST up reply actions
I think sometime last season
I had a dream that we traded Iannetta and Hirsh for someone, I forget who, someone good though, like Halladay or something…
Marquis & Vizcaino Trade
We only took in about $6M-$5MM because Vizcaino’s salary was about $4M so it wasn’t the whole $9M
The Fail boat is sinking
by rockiesfan4ever on Jan 8, 2009 10:01 AM MST reply actions
$5 million exactly, actually.
Vizcaino’s $4 M + .875 M from the Cubs in cash gets subtracted off the $9.875 M Marquis is due this year.
Think of it like
being allowed to outright release Vizcaino while signing Marquis to a one-year $5 mil deal.
by Andrew T. Fisher on Jan 8, 2009 10:34 AM MST up reply actions
I think this
opens the door for Speier, who has been waiting patiently. I think I read last year he bought a house in Castle Rock because he figured he would be going between the two. This year, I think, he is out of options so it is with the ROX or through the waivers, and some team would want him.
"People ask me what I do in winter when there's no baseball. I'll tell you what I do. I stare out the window and wait for spring." ~Rogers Hornsby
JFK
Since it relates to the Rox,
in case anyone’s interested in reading the full story of the possibility of Japanese baseballers playing Cactus League in Tucson, here’s the local coverage from the Star. Looks like an interesting proposal, and I hope it works out.
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Thanks
for the local perspective and news. That article makes me hope that it happens because I enjoy being one of the many ST tourists and a Japanese team would be an interesting twist and fun to watch.
"People ask me what I do in winter when there's no baseball. I'll tell you what I do. I stare out the window and wait for spring." ~Rogers Hornsby
JFK
No problem.
Incidentally, do you usually visit during ST? If any of you other PRers come down to Tucson, you should let me know. Russ and Silverblood were kind enough to let me tag along to a Mets game when I was visiting NYC, so it’d be nice to pay it forward.
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I'm hoping to go...
I’m trying to talk my wife into travelling to Tucson for our anniversary on March 13th. I told her Tucson in March would be a romantic getaway.
Keepin' warm by the hot stove season.
Well,
seriously, let me know. There really ARE some fantastic places to stay here, and of course, everyone knows about the sunsets.
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I've gone to Tuscon several times...
and besides the baseball, the best part is the Mexican food. And PIMA. And the Desert museum. Okay, I liked most of it.
Eschew Obfuscation!
Is that the one..
You can see from googleearth (not that I use that program) with the miles of planes parked along the runway?
Keepin' warm by the hot stove season.
Hmmm....
that sounds like you’re thinking of the Boneyard, (good pictures in that link) the only civilian tour of which is indeed booked through PASM. They also book tours of the Titan missile silo.
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by DbacksSkins on Jan 10, 2009 11:45 AM MST up reply actions
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