Jason Hammel Trade Revisited
It's not always the blockbuster deals that build winners. In fact, it often is not. With the Rockies on the verge of the playoffs, it's a good time to reflect on one of those seemingly innocent little trades that has paid big dividends for Dan O'Dowd this season.
The Pledge
Tampa Bay entered the season with a true embarrassment of riches regarding starting pitching. James Shields, Scott Kazmir, Matt Garza and Andy Sonnanstine were locks to make the Opening Day rotation, and 2007 first overall pick David Price was a capable fifth starter at the very least.
But that left out two talented right-handers: Jeff Niemann, the fourth overall pick in 2004, and 2002 10th rounder Jason Hammel. Both had exhausted their options and would have to be traded, released or placed on waivers if they were not on the 25-man roster on Opening Day. The Rays elected to keep David Price in AAA to start the year, forcing them to move only one of the pitchers.
As Spring Training neared an end, there was no clear winner for the fifth starter role, though rumors abounded that the Rockies were hoping to trade for Hammel. Niemann was 2-1 with a 6.32 ERA over 15.1 IP in the Grapefruit League, while Hammel was 0-1 with a 3.96 ERA in 25.0 IP. However, the investment the organization had in Niemann worked in his favor.
The Turn
On the final day before the season, the Rays decided to keep their former first-rounder. They traded Hammel to the Rockies for 21-year old pitcher Aneury Rodriguez, who had pitched in High-A Modesto last season. It seemed at the time of the trade, Rowbots seemingly disliked the trade greatly, pining for Niemann instead. Granted, one season is not enough to properly evaluate a trade, but for the sake of argument, should we be happy we landed Hammel instead of a guy who was chosen behind only Matt Bush, Justin Verlander and Phillip Humber in 2004?
Join on the other side to find out.
Jason Hammel finished his season last night, though Jeff Niemann still has a scheduled start Saturday against the Yankees. Still, we'll check out the players' statistics for comparison now anyway. A cursory glance at traditional stats (W/L, ERA, WHIP) suggest Niemann was unquestionably the better pitcher this year. But take a closer look.
The Prestige
Hammel has a better FIP, tRA and WAR. More clearly, he strikes out more and walks les. Quite frankly, the only reason his WHIP and ERA seem higher is due to a much higher batting average on balls in play.
What's fascinating about Hammel though, is that he not only matches up with Niemann extraordinarily well, not only is he arguably the best fifth starter in the game this season, but he ranks near the top of the league in a couple important peripheral statistics.
One knock against Hammel coming to Coors Field was his propensity to give up the long ball, but it just hasn't been a problem with Colorado. The Rockies won 12 of his 15 Coors Field starts and his 0.88 HR/9 is fantastic for a Rockies pitcher - indeed, it is 17th best in the National League. He also has the sixth best curveball value in MLB and accrued the 25th most WAR among all MLB starting pitchers, 14th in the NL. Arguably most exciting, he has the 14th best GB/FB ratio in the bigs. That's a heck of an effort from a guy that couldn't crack two rotations out of spring training.
Now, before anyone messes their pants, I am obliged to point out a couple caveats to these statistics, at least those in comparison to Niemann. Even though Hammel has been forced to pitch at Coors Field, he also has gotten the benefit of Dodger Stadium and PetCo Park, the league's top two pitcher's parks. Niemann, meanwhile, also pitches in a hitter's park, but in his division, only the Toronto Blue Jays play in a park with a factor below 100, and that's just 98/99.
In addition, there is no greater difference in offensive inter-division skill than between the NL West and AL East. Niemann most assuredly has been facing stiffer competition in the opposing batter's box, and on a level playing field, he would grade out probably fairly evenly if not slightly better than Hammel. But at this point, it's essentially like asking whether you'd prefer steak or lobster, at least relative to league average fifth starters. My appetite tends to pitchers with strong GB/FB rates, so even if Niemann and Hammel are essentially even, we got the best guy for Coors Field. In case price is your deciding factor, Hammel made $422k this year, while Niemann received $650k from the Rays.
As for Aneury Rodriguez, it's still too early to guess whether he was too much to give for Hammel. He could conceivably become an ace, though as Rox Girl said in April, "Aneury's ceiling is Jason Hammel" before Hammel's ceiling raised a little this year.
Rodriguez scuffled a little bit when the trade brought a promotion to AA Montgomery, but he adjusted and rebounded well, posting ERAs under 2.60 in June and July. The jury will be out for a few more years, but just for now, here's his AA stats this season.
Will it be a good trade when it's all said and done? Who knows...Aneury and Niemann could become monsters and Hammel's arm could fall off, but as for this year, it looks fantastic. There has been plenty of publicity about Dan O'Dowd's shrewd trade to pick up Jason Marquis, but at just 0.1 WAR below Marquis, there's another Jason trade that ought to help Dan O'Dowd become a finalist for Executive of the Year.
24 comments
|
0 recs |
Do you like this story?
Comments
isn't this a false dichotomy...
do we really know for certain that the Rays would have traded Niemann for Rodriguez?
The real question—which is touched on at the end here is Hammel vs. Rodriguez not Niemann vs. Hammel.
It remains to be seen who wins this trade, but I can’t argue with the idea of trading away a high A solid, but not outstanding, prospect for a young bottom of rotation pitcher. The success rate for pitching prospects—even top end ones—at high A is such that I would have made that trade in a second—and still would.
O’Dowd really has a pretty good record recently with his trades. In addition to the two trades for the Jasons, the Holliday trade keeps looking better and better.
No, the Rays likely would not have traded Niemann
unless the Rockies bowled them over with a better prospect. I don’t even remember a report that the Rockies wanted Niemann. I was fairly certain that the Rays would choose Niemann all along, but since we had several discussions about Niemann vs. Hammel this spring, I elected to choose that angle as well, if only from a more fantasy standpoint
"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein
by Andrew T. Fisher on Oct 1, 2009 10:47 AM MDT up reply actions
TINSTAAPP
EXECUTE: It's the Clutch thing to do
by Andrew Martin on Oct 1, 2009 11:22 AM MDT up reply actions
There's more from Tampa
Excellent analysis of this trade, which truly looks good for the Rox. But when you look at it from the Rays point of view, it’s even worse than the numbers are. Using hindsight as a guide (easy, right?), the Rays seemingly solid spring rotation went south, deep south. Niemann turned out well, but Sonnanstine was sent to AAA and Kazmir was eventually traded. Price’s season was uneven to say the least and the team as a whole disappointed. Looking back they could – or should – have kept both Niemann and Hammel and traded Sonnanstine tot he Rox (who would have taken him in a minute judging by his excellent 2008 season). A little luck always helps and in this case, the Rox win out big time. One team goes home the other to the post-season. Enough said.
by Curt in Florida on Oct 1, 2009 10:42 AM MDT reply actions
Everyone's hindsight is 20/20
The thing that is impressive is that The O’dowd’s foresight also seems to be 20/20. This is just one of dozens of moves that seemingly all paid off.
"I am an optimist. It does not seem too much use being anything else." - W. Churchill
¡Vamos Rocosos!
Dan O'Dowd ... So awesome he has earned the Definite Article!
paid big dividends for the Dan O’Dowd this season.
"I am an optimist. It does not seem too much use being anything else." - W. Churchill
¡Vamos Rocosos!
The O'Dowd is pleased
Now bring forth more minor league prospects, for the O’Dowd hungers.
"Yeeeeeeeah Rox! Yeeeeeah! We too hot! Can't stop us!" -- Some kid at Union Station after the play-in game in '07.Those words are as true today as the day they were spoken.
by roxinoct on Oct 1, 2009 10:55 AM MDT up reply actions 3 recs
LOL
winner
if you're reading this, it means my undying support for your team will result in its failure.
by fantasyfencing on Oct 1, 2009 11:54 AM MDT up reply actions
Thank you kind sir
for my first rec.
"Yeeeeeeeah Rox! Yeeeeeah! We too hot! Can't stop us!" -- Some kid at Union Station after the play-in game in '07.Those words are as true today as the day they were spoken.
Fixed
Though maybe I should have left it. :)
"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein
by Andrew T. Fisher on Oct 1, 2009 10:58 AM MDT up reply actions
I feel like he has earned it
"I am an optimist. It does not seem too much use being anything else." - W. Churchill
¡Vamos Rocosos!
I love how you set this article up
Pledge
Turn
Prestige
O’Dowd has been a magician!
"I am an optimist. It does not seem too much use being anything else." - W. Churchill
¡Vamos Rocosos!
I'm glad someone caught it :)
"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein
by Andrew T. Fisher on Oct 1, 2009 10:47 AM MDT up reply actions
Great movie too
if you're reading this, it means my undying support for your team will result in its failure.
by fantasyfencing on Oct 1, 2009 11:54 AM MDT up reply actions
As much flak as GMs take...
…it’s nice to give back some kudos when deserved. It’s so easy to pick apart bad trades, which happen to every team and every GM. Even longtime GMs don’t get enough credit for the most part. Most fans can’t even name more than 1-2.
by Curt in Florida on Oct 1, 2009 10:52 AM MDT up reply actions
This really is a great analysis of the trade
Diving deep into the numbers. One thing that you don’t really address though is time. We needed a fifth starter This Year more than a prospect down the road. There has to be an element of discount rate when evaluating Aneury. Even if he becomes a better pitcher than Hammel present value >>> future value
"I am an optimist. It does not seem too much use being anything else." - W. Churchill
¡Vamos Rocosos!
This is very true Mr. Economist
Another thing I didn’t add was Hammel’s value over what we would have been throwing out there every fifth day had he not been acquired. Morales was injured, but even then, his first two starts weren’t glowing necessarily, and evaluating how he has performed in the bullpen and applying it to starting just doesn’t work. We could have had a lot more of the Mark Redman/Tim Harikkala/Denny Bautista’s going on.
I kind of want to see what his WAAFS (Wins above average fifth starter) he has…but that’s offseason type work :)
"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein
by Andrew T. Fisher on Oct 1, 2009 11:13 AM MDT up reply actions
If anyone is interested further
here are DRaysBay articles on Niemann’s season and their reaction to the trade at its completion and at the first rumor..
"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein
by Andrew T. Fisher on Oct 1, 2009 11:20 AM MDT reply actions
O'Dowd just like players in their contract years.....
He just had a “career year” as a GM in the final year of his contract. I congratulate him, and am sure he will be rewarded with a nice extension from the Monforts. He should win “Executive of the Year”, as his pitching pickups (Marquis, Hammel, Betancourt, Beimel, Contreras) have been excellent. Even though another forgotten Jason, Jason Hirsh, has left the organization, Hammel has become what I had hoped Hirsh would be.
Why so many Jasons in our present and past anyway? Is this just coincidence, or some type of fetish by O’Dowd?
Jason Marquis
Jason Jennings
Jason Hirsh
Jason Hammel
Jason Smith
Jason Romano
Jason Young
Jason Grilli
Jason Giambi
I think you mean "The O'Dowd"
The O’Dowd will forgive your mistake this time. But don’t let the O’Dowd catch you disrespecting him again.
if you're reading this, it means my undying support for your team will result in its failure.
by fantasyfencing on Oct 1, 2009 11:55 AM MDT up reply actions
We may need to call him The Jason
for his collecting propensities.
Great analysis!
Watching the purple row from high atop the big brown monolith on California Ave
Stat search question?
What site can I find RISP% for everyone in MLB. I have a feeling with Yorvit’s hit yesterday putting him at .500 for the year that he must be in the top 1 or 2 in baseball with at least 4 at bats. If he is in fact leading baseball with his .500 average, I would like to know how rare of a feat (.500 ave, 40+ abs) is it for a player / when it was last done.
I do understand with the law of baseball averages that despite only 4 games remaining (likely 2 starts) that he’ll probably drop below the .500 for the season.
May the Rockies bring me to paydirt!
that with at least 40 at bats, not 4 at bats
May the Rockies bring me to paydirt!
Great quote from Rox Girl in the rays' thread:
“If not, I think Hammels’ best path back to the rotation this year will be by being better than Jason Marquis, and really, how hard can that be?”


















