Tuesday Rockpile: Has Dan O'Dowd forged MLB's best small market model?
by Andrew T. Fisher on Oct 20, 2009 7:25 AM MDT
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PrintLocking down leading men
Yesterday, Patrick Saunders suggested the Rockies would ink GM Dan O'Dowd and manager Jim Tracy to multi-year deals this week. This morning, the Denver Post strengthened their wording on the issue a bit. Now, a "major league source close to the situation" said the Rockies will sign both leading men to long-term deals, per Saunders and Troy Renck. Okay so that's not a shocker. They do mention the entirety of the MLB coaching staff will return in their current roles, again not surprising after the best regular season in franchise history.
But oh yeah - Tracy Ringolsby already reported that Sunday night.
Dan O'Clown or Bozo Beane?
There's room to argue the sense in giving an MLB contract, but there can be no legitimate beef with Dan O'Dowd. At the time of the Holliday trade in November, some exhibited worry that O'Dowd was playing with fire (Beane) and would likely get burned (Encarnacion/Ortiz/Belitz). It looks like Beane ought to be worried about O'Dowd now.
To further illustrate this point, I'll point you to Fangraphs, where RJ Anderson writes of the Problem with Oakland. Quite frankly, the Athletics just haven't drafted well, and their top prospects haven't panned out since Moneyball. Anderson identified the Rays and Rockies as two teams taking the torch in the small-market-internal-development game, so he compared the three clubs' top 10 prospects (from Baseball America) from 2004-07:
"The Rockies have an extraordinarily high retention rate* of 72.5% while the Rays/A's are equal with 42.5%."
*Retention rate is defined as percentage of prospects still within the organization at the start of 2009.
Moreover, all ten of the Rockies' top ten prospects from 2007 were within the organization this past March, while Oakland and Tampa only had five. That could be part of why the Rockies have two playoff appearances since 2007 to Tampa and Oakland's combined one...
Now time for commentary: Jason Hirsh and Jeff Baker were traded for scraps this season and no one is calling Dan O'Dowd late at night in hopes a brandy-filled evening will allow him to loosen his grip on Greg Reynolds or Chaz Roe. Those four represent an issue with representing small market success by retention rate. Retaining dud or uninspiring prospects isn't really worth rewarding. The Rays lost their top prospect from 2005-2007, but flipping him for Matt Garza and Jason Bartlett was unquestionably the right move. Then again, after a decade drafting in the top five, they had the best prospects at their disposal for a long time, and the Rockies were drafting higher than Oakland in the time frame.
So what does this all tell us? The Rockies indeed develop players well, though mostly, it tells us Dan O'Dowd likes holding onto his prospects. That's all. The only top prospects from those four years that were traded prior to 2009 were Matt Holliday and Ryan Shealy (unanimously good trades). It tells us the Rockies seem to hold more firm to the developmental segment of the organization than their peers, which is partly why we fans latch onto our players so much. It also tells me that Dan O'Dowd would really have to break the mold to bring in a Brian Roberts.
Last cold links
Rox look to build on strong second half | ColoradoRockies.com: News
Thomas Harding breaks down the roster position-by-position. Included is the contract issues to keep an eye on. It's a good reference point if you haven't been reading the Row every day.
Mopping Up in 2009 | FanGraphs Baseball
Josh Fogg was mop up man in 2009 - his "MOP score" placed him second in MLB behind Luis Perdomo, who allowed Clint Barmes' inside-the-park home run last month.
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Murton, from Harding
Did he hit his 3 yrs svc time? Hmm, he might have. Were both 2006/2007 full years with the Cubs?
Leave Dexter alone! You're lucky he even performs for you!
The mold
It also tells me that Dan O’Dowd would really have to break the mold to bring in a Brian Roberts.
I have to agree. The DP tried to argue on Sunday that the Rockies blew it by not attempting to pull off a blockbuster trade this season for Cliff Lee, a big bat, yada yada, and that only this type of deal will get the Rox to the “elite” level. I will be stunned if the FO takes their advice. In the NL, we’ve already competed for #1 seed this season. This roster produced 92 wins, and if they don’t regress due to injury, there’s reason to be hopeful that the bats will mature a bit and we can eak out a few more wins. Why risk another Hampton debacle? This organization simply doesn’t have the resources to guess wrong on a large scale, as we painfully learned in late 90’s/early 00’s. Stay the course. Keep picking off high value/low cost FAs when they become available and invest in the toddlers.
"It breaks your heart. It is designed to break your heart." - A. Bartlett Giamatti
Ok, I'll take the opposite side
I think if a situation comes up where there is an bonafide #1 starter out there with only 1-2 years left on his deal, perhaps someone whose name rhymes with Hoy Ralladay, then we have the depth in prospects to swing said trade. I love our pitching more than anyone, but I don’t think that all of CF, Rogers, and Chacin will pan out, and would be willing to lose one in the right deal. On the offense front, I wonder if O Dowd could swap one of our young high upside leftie bats for a similar high upside righty one, perhaps to a team with a positional need that we have an excess of (OF). I think its unfair to equate making a trade to really put the team over the top with the Hampton deal. Prospects, after all, have a certain shelf life, and are worth using in the right trade.
swapping a lefty and righty
is obviously not the kind of deal I’m talking about. Shipping a boatload of prospects to Toronto for Halladay is, however, and I’m agin’ it.
What is “over the top”, by the way? I like Theo Epstein’s strategy: get into the postseason every year and eventually you bring home a ring. I believe the Rockies are already positioned for the next 2-3 years to make the postseason. We don’t need Halladay. Give me more incremental roster improvements – we don’t need to swing for the fences.
"It breaks your heart. It is designed to break your heart." - A. Bartlett Giamatti
I get that the playoffs are a crapshoot
but I’m not sure that means we should be content with a 90 win roster, assuming no regression from our pitching. Do you really think that the Rockies could beat the Yankees in a potential world series? Maybe I just have nightmares about 2007 but I still see a pretty big gap to the big boys of the AL.
Agree here.
I’m not sure Epstein’s theory is to just get to the playoffs. I mean, they were positioned to do that already when they traded one of the best prospects (and now best players) in baseball for a stud #1 pitcher, Josh Beckett, who we all know was pretty crucial in winning a title. I think this is the kind of move moomacher is talking about, and I think its interesting.
I do agree we should be a bit gun-shy about mega-moves, but I feel a lot better about trades than straight up FA signings (like Hampton). Usually trades have shorter-term downside because the contracts are already signed, its not like we’ll be making a 7 year commitment. Small market teams need to look at windows of opportunity, real chances of success, and that’s where we are right now. (I know we all like to think that we can maintain this level of competitiveness indefinitely but history shows that just isn’t so for small market clubs.) I don’t want DOD to go crazy because his plan is working, but fortune favors the bold sometimes.
Everyone has a gap with the big boys
The challenge is to win given the gap. Inflating the payroll by 50%+ is not the answer.
By the way, what do you think the Pirates/Reds/Royals would think about getting to 90 wins every year? If you told me we would play in the WS every other year and lose to the Yankees/Red Sox, I’m in.
"It breaks your heart. It is designed to break your heart." - A. Bartlett Giamatti
Well, what is the argument?
Consistently building a 90 win team, or building a team that can win a title? I know those aren’t mutually exclusive, but there are some nuances there. The first of which, most likely, is having another proven hammer in the starting rotation to go with Uball. Look what Lee has done for Philly, right now they are looking at a 2nd straight WS, but do you think they would be sitting where they are without Lee? I mean, talk about a team not resting on its laurels. That is turning out to be a brilliant move. Obviously not every move works out that well, but of course that’s the trick.
Here's what Epstein said
“In our mission statement, part of it is we want to operate with a long-term view to put ourselves in a position to win 95 games and get in the playoffs as often as we possibly. Now we’ve done it six out of seven years. Part of the thinking is that if you make the postseason multiple times, you improve your chances of making the World Series. Theoretically, if you’re in eight times, you’ll win one World Series. Well, we’ve been in five times. This is our sixth time in. The first five times in, we won two World Series. I’m not going to [complain] about that.<\blockquote>
95 wins and postseason in 2010 for the Rockies won’t require a Halladay or Lee, will it? I agree that the Lee move was brilliant, and if we had a similar opportunity, we should grab it. I’m only saying trying to make such a deal should not be a priority for the FO. Why do we need a 2nd hammer when we’re getting 10+ wins from every starter? Philadelphia also has a $111M payroll and won the WS last year without Lee.
"It breaks your heart. It is designed to break your heart." - A. Bartlett Giamatti
blockquote fail
My comments start at “95 wins….”
"It breaks your heart. It is designed to break your heart." - A. Bartlett Giamatti
I dig your point in general
Though I don’t think Theo is quite being honest about their strategy, in that quote anyway. I’m quite sure they plan to make the playoffs every year; I also think they make moves to make their team literally as good as it can be every year. For whatever reason, Boston tries to distinguish itself from NY but really they are the same.
In any case, I fully agree we don’t have the resources to act like that, but that doesn’t mean we still shouldn’t seek to build a “playoff roster” to the extent we can. To wit, I think we need another hammer because we just watched what happens when a 5th starter (Hammel) pitches in Game 3, you get lit up more often than not. Now, I know the DLR injury was a major factor in that, but still. I don’t think anyone in the world thought Hammel was going to beat Philly last week, and that’s a problem. (And this should not be read as a knock on Hammel, I like him as a #5. But not in the playoff rotation).
With respect to what will lead to 95 wins next year, its awfully hard to fathom considering its a feat we’ve never accomplished. I like to think that the rotation will be as good (or better) next year, but its hard to count on that. I doubt we can just roll the same team out of bed and do as well as we did next year, considering it ain’t like LA and SF are going to sit around doing nothing. Both of those teams will likely be improved, and hell even SD and AZ can’t be as bad as they were this year. We’ll have to improve just to maintain the status quo.
We should also consider that there is a window for the Rockies here
revolving around Ubaldo and Tulo’s deals, and the length of time the current core will be around. I’m afraid if you go for the Billy Beane approach to playoffs as a crapshoot, you end up with nothing to show for it.
What's the last MONSTROUS FREE AGENT that Boston signed?
I don’t count trades here, because everybody makes trades. Acquiring Beckett was a doozy, they gave up an awful lot for him.
C Varitek – Trade
C Victor Martinez – Trade
1B Youkilis – Homegrown
2B Pedroia – Homegrown
SS Nick Green – Scrapheap FA, sucked
SS Alex Cora – Scrapheap FA, sucked
SS Julio Lugo – overpaid FA, but not MONSTER DEAL
3B Mike Lowell – came in the HanRam/Beckett trade
LF Jason Bay – came in the Bay/Manny trade
CF Jacoby Ellsbury – Homegrown
RF JD Drew – FA, 5 years/70M
DH David Ortiz – Free Agent
SP Beckett – Hanram trade
SP Lester – Homegrown
SP Brad Penny – scrapheap FA
SP Tim Wakefield – scrapheap FA, awesomest contract option ever
SP Clay Buchholz – Homegrown
SP Daisuke Matsuzaka – big stupid FA contract
RP Justin Masterson – Homegrown
RP Daniel Bard – Homegrown
RP Manny Delcarmen – Homegrown
RP Takashi Saito – scrapheap FA
RP Hideki Okajima – FA
RP Ramon Ramirez – came in the Coco Crisp trade
CL Jonathan Papelbon – Homegrown
Basically, they’re doing most of it by farming, and then they’re able to trade away farmhands for the real deals, and then they have the money to retain the real deals when it’s time.
They can also buy the scrapheap risks and if they don’t pan out, meh, no big deal.
I hate Boston, but they’re a pretty well run organization – that is to say, they’re really not the Yankees.
Hope got in my eyes
by Andrew Martin on Oct 20, 2009 11:25 AM MDT up reply actions
Well
Matzuzaka can’t be so easily dismissed, what did they pay, total in excess of 100M for that guy? JD Drew, they paid him a ludicrous amount considering his performance in LA. They backed up a Brinks truck for Pedro. Also consider that their 2 titles were on the back of 20M man Manny Ramirez.
And that doesn’t really even get into WS MVP Mike Lowell, who was just a salary dump in the Beckett trade that most teams could not have absorbed.
Certainly they do a great job in the farm system, but their FA/big money deals are HUGELY resposible for the titles. (And they are really not that different from NY, who has a fair amount of prospects among the key players too).
Pedro isn't a fair comp in this discussion, when was the last time he played for them?
I don’t think either player was Theo Epstein’s doing.
JD Drew….a .931 OPS and .891 OPS are totally worth 10-14M per year. Easily. Despite his injuries, he’s been a positive defender for Boston as well.
Drew was a good acquisition, and totally worth the money they paid for him. He is a tough plate appearance, hits for decent average, complements it with a lot of walks, and hits for very good power in the forms of XBH as well as dingers. If he wasn’t such a douche in general, I’d actually like him.
In terms of Matsuzaka, yeah, that’s why I called him a big stupid FA contract – something like 100M after all was said and done, even if only 1/2 that goes to Matsuzaka. The point was more that they didn’t just spend a trillion dollars on 3 players after spending a trillion dollars on a few other players, like the yankees.
Hope got in my eyes
by Andrew Martin on Oct 20, 2009 11:38 AM MDT up reply actions
either player meaning Manny/Pedro
Hope got in my eyes
by Andrew Martin on Oct 20, 2009 11:38 AM MDT up reply actions
The reason
I referenced Pedro is because we’re talking about why Boston is so “great,” not only going to the playoffs yearly but (as Epstein crowed) winning 2 titles. Pedro was a big, big part of that 2004 team. Huge money FA. Also Manny that year was WS MVP. And while I know we’re not really talking about trades here, that team also featured Johnny Damon and Curt Shilling in key roles, two mega-trade guys that, again, are the kind of deals generally unavailable to mid-market teams (and the kind that folks around here disdain).
I’m not saying Boston is not a well-run organization, it is an incredibly well-run organization. But they play with funny money just like NY does. Its not like Colo could have made 1/2 of the moves Boston has made. So they deserve credit, but not as a model for our team. They buy titles just like NY tries to do.
(And none of this touches the fortuity of taking a street FA, nothing special average hitter, and through “magic beans” and “clutchiness”, turning him into the Incredible Ortiz.)
Oh, we're calling them Magic Beans now? ;-)
Before I continue, I guess I’m grading Boston on the works of Epstein, similar to how we should grade the Rockies on the works of O’Dowd, and not Gebhardt.
Epstein got really lucky that Ortiz did whatever he did to get as good as he did. Acquiring Schilling was pretty damn smart, as they gave away what looked to be marginal talent at best.
(Fun fact: Boston traded our own Jorge De La Rosa to Arizona for Mr. Schilling!)
I don’t entirely disagree with the funny money allegations, it just seems that they’ve been wiser about using it as of late, and really attempting to use the money as a flexing point and not the smothering source of all their power.
Hope got in my eyes
by Andrew Martin on Oct 20, 2009 12:10 PM MDT up reply actions
No doubt
they should be lauded for using their resources to the maximum impact. I wish we could do what they do. But we can’t.
Also amusing is that Padilla was in the deal that sent Shilling from Philly to AZ, and now Padilla stands between Philly and the WS.
hahahha exactly
I love how those things work out.
The one (1) thing I will say positive about the Yankees is that when they buy someone for big money, they buy the best available talent. Teix and CC were the best available talent. Ergo, 350M gone.
Hope got in my eyes
by Andrew Martin on Oct 20, 2009 12:20 PM MDT up reply actions
I think you're a bit off about Boston
they should be lauded for using their resources to the maximum impact.
They push a lot of money around, but look at their payroll. It’s a lot closer to the Rockies’ than it is to NYY’s, and they’ve backed off it a bit the last few years. They could have competed with NY for Sabathia and Teix but pulled back when the bidding reached a certain point, when they clearly could have afforded it.
It’s true we can’t do what they do, but I don’t think they do what you’re saying they do, either.
Leave Dexter alone! You're lucky he even performs for you!
Boston is a bit lower this year
probably a lot due to getting Manny off the team, but when they beat us in 2007, their payroll was over 140M (2nd in basebally to NY) and ours was barely over 50M. When they won in 2004, they were again 2nd in baseball. So its true that they do pale in direct comparison to NY, but when compared to anyone else they are effectively the same.
And as I’ve shown above, each of those titles were won on the backs of bigtime FA acquisitions and blockbuster, big money trades.
Boston should thank NY for spending so much, otherwise the’yd be the evil empire.
yes, but they don't maximize their team
based on their resources. That was the original context of the thread.
Leave Dexter alone! You're lucky he even performs for you!
Also on the Epstein point
I agree he should be given tons of credit. His trade of Nomar was gutty and worked great, among other many good early moves. But to say he earned 2004 entirely himself, when Manny and Pedro were the backbone of the team, is somewhat misleading. That would be like crediting DOD for Helton.
if that's what I said came across as, I didn't mean it
The Nomar trade was tough, but I’m a little disgusted with how it originated. I mean, it was clear they wanted to cycle him out and bring in fresh blood, but they decided to run a smear campaign against him so that Boston’s golden child wouldn’t be missed and there wouldn’t be riots in the street. Not a fan of that.
Hope got in my eyes
by Andrew Martin on Oct 20, 2009 12:23 PM MDT up reply actions
that's their MO
easier to accomplish with Manny, for sure, but same tact taken. Hard to fathom how they could completely denigrate the best player on their 2 WS teams, but they did. I guess short memories are good tools to use.
the whole PED thing couldn't have hurt that conquest, either
Hope got in my eyes
by Andrew Martin on Oct 20, 2009 12:48 PM MDT up reply actions
I disagree on Drew
14 million per year for five years was too much for him.
During his three years in Boston he has an .875 OPS, a little lower than his two previous years which Theo should have expected because he was 32 on opening day in 2007. Those numbers would still be pretty good if he actually played everyday. JD Drew has missed at least 25 games in 8 of his 11 seasons in the bigs. This guy needs a day off if he rolls out of bed the wrong way.
He’s a good player but I don’t think he’s worth 14 million a year.
I'm still hoping to wake up from that nightmare I had about the 9th inning of Game 4.
by RhodeIslandRoxfan on Oct 20, 2009 2:40 PM MDT up reply actions
Lets not dismiss the impending
Boston FA spending binge to replace Bay, Ortiz, and Lowell….
I don't see it happening quite like that
1. I’m honestly asking this, is it pretty much decided that Bay is gone? I feel retaining him would be an incredibly smart option.
2. I don’t see them replacing Lowell and Ortiz via FA, because honestly, who is out there? Nick Johnson may be an option for them at 1B, but there really aren’t any more exciting players out there.
3. SS will be a spot for Boston to address. Toronto’s Marco Scutaro could be a target, depending on what direction they want to take the position, as I’m not sure of their organizational depth at SS.
Hope got in my eyes
by Andrew Martin on Oct 20, 2009 12:30 PM MDT up reply actions
Certainly it will be interesting to watch
Do they really just junk Ortiz? Somehow I have a feeling he makes his way back.
Bay? I also think he comes back, but if he doesn’t I’m quite sure they’ll be in on Holliday or working to swing a big trade.
Lowell is another tough call. They move Youk back over there easily, but I don’t see Boston fan being satisfied with Nick Johnson. Again, I wouldn’t be surprised to see a big move.
Its quite sad that ESPN has conditioned me to care so much about that damn team. If only to hope they fail.
Theo Epstein loves OBP
Nick Johnson led the majors in it, IIRC
Hope got in my eyes
by Andrew Martin on Oct 20, 2009 12:49 PM MDT up reply actions
Not saying
it would be a bad call, but I doubt Red Sox nation would be thrilled with that move, especially if NY is coming off a title (and the bigtime notion in Boston that they really dropped the ball by letting Tex go to NY). They will make a splash somewhere, and either LF or 1B/3B are the places (or both).
Yeah I don't see Nick Johnson
really exciting Red Sox nation. Plus he can’t stay healthy.
neither can mike lowell
Hope got in my eyes
by Andrew Martin on Oct 20, 2009 1:13 PM MDT up reply actions
well it depends on how you want to look at it
If Youk can field 3B as well as Lowell historically can, or at least close, his .961 OPS plus his generally average/positive defense will more than make up for Lowell’s average bat (.811 OPS) and positive defense. (I’m assuming we can talk OPS, right? I don’t know where things stand anymore…)
Johnson is an average to above average fielder at 1B, and that absurd OBP would play pretty well.
I guess I’ve made my point on Johnson.
The other guy I MIGHT see could be Adrian Beltre, but I just don’t think his bat will play. I mean, you can’t ask for a better defensive 3B.
Hope got in my eyes
by Andrew Martin on Oct 20, 2009 1:13 PM MDT up reply actions
I'm not disagreeing with your point
that it would be a good baseball move, moreso the idea that Boston will be clamoring to make a big move. I think they’ll make a big run at AGone (as they did this year) and some other big dog 1B/3B types. I also expect Bay to stay put for a lot of dough. And probably a big pitcher too.
I'd be really interested to see what Boston offers for Gonzalez
Hope got in my eyes
by Andrew Martin on Oct 20, 2009 2:42 PM MDT up reply actions
Re Bay and Ortiz
I think Boston undoubtedly makes a run a Bay (they’ve already offered him two extensions), but Bay’s dead set on hitting the open market first. As long as Bay money does not equal Holliday money, I think he stays.
As for Ortiz…well, there is one potentially exciting 1B option out there. He presently often plays RF for some weird and random club out in Colorado.
Watching the purple row from high atop the big brown monolith on California Ave
Except it sounds like the Rockies want value back for him
Why would Boston give up anything for a year of him. Rockies might have to look elsewhere to peddle the guy.
Leave Dexter alone! You're lucky he even performs for you!
Really, that all depends
For Boston, and an annual almost-guaranteed shot at the LCS or WS, Hawpe could agree not to void his final year. And it depends on how hot the press in Boston does get, especially if the Evil Empire ends up WS champs.
I agree it’s quite unlikely. But I think DOD might just do that deal in a heartbeat for, say, Manny Delcarmen, because the payroll savings + that level of talent does represent value.
Watching the purple row from high atop the big brown monolith on California Ave
Huh?
What does the press matter? If people were upset at the Yankees winning a WS, they’d shoot a lot higher than Hawpe.
and my point isn’t about O’Dowd, it’s about Boston. Why give up something for Hawpe when they could sign someone better as a FA?
Leave Dexter alone! You're lucky he even performs for you!
Further...
why do Rockies fans always think other teams will be interested in the players they think are expensive/bad/etc. enough that they don’t want them on the Rockies?
Leave Dexter alone! You're lucky he even performs for you!
by FooMan on Oct 20, 2009 7:16 PM MDT up reply actions 1 recs
That's the job of fans for any team
irrationality is our business.
"These are thin mints. I put them in the freezer. My favorites. So good."
--Reds outfielder Adam Dunn, on the girl scout cookies he keeps in his locker
Who said anything about inflating payroll by 50%?
I mean if we can deal Hawpe that’s $7.5 million off the books, and Atkins is going to be non tendered. There is money there for a Cliff Lee type trade, for sure.
Has anybody linked these?
2010 ZiPS Projections: Colorado Rockies
Any thoughts? Obviously it’s really early and there are some projections for guys who won’t be Rockies next year, but these are fun to look at.
My gut reaction: the system is too pessimistic on Tulo, EY Jr, and Carlos’ power; just right on Seth Smith; and we really ought to be more excited about Darin Holcomb, apparently.
"You spend a good piece of your life gripping a baseball and in the end it turns out that it was the other way around the whole time." - Jim Bouton
Can Holcomb hack it at third defensively,
and does that make Stewart a potential trade chip down the line?
Stewart isn't going anywhere..
He’ll be the starting 3B for the next 5 years.
Order a Rocktober t-shirt in time for the playoffs and donate to charity at:
Purple Row Cares
thats the hope
"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein
by Andrew T. Fisher on Oct 20, 2009 10:32 AM MDT via mobile up reply actions
I love him and all
but how Tracy handled him in the NLDS wasn’t exactly a ringing show of confidence
Because of the weather..and the forcefullness of Phillies prayers..
The Rockies faced Cliff Lee and an inordinate amount of lefties in that series causing Beef Stew to sit more than usual.
Order a Rocktober t-shirt in time for the playoffs and donate to charity at:
Purple Row Cares
http://www.purplerow.com/2009/9/11/1025441/purple-row-interviews-marc
Hope got in my eyes
by Andrew Martin on Oct 20, 2009 11:30 AM MDT up reply actions
This discussion led me to quickly check Ariz. Fall League stats
Holcomb is 6 for 15, 1 HR, in his first 4 games. Hope he keeps it going. If Atkins
is non-tendered, it would be great incentive for Stewart’s 2010 performance to see a 3B in Colo. Springs ripping the ball.
i missed that one
Would have been a good inclusion for the pro odowd themed pile. Thanks
"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein
by Andrew T. Fisher on Oct 20, 2009 10:31 AM MDT via mobile up reply actions
also VG at 2B
I don’t know about these ZIPS
Hope got in my eyes
by Andrew Martin on Oct 20, 2009 11:32 AM MDT up reply actions
he's not the only one
MLE splits, click the “defense” link. Totalzone on the spidered minor league D data.
Leave Dexter alone! You're lucky he even performs for you!
I guess I'm still really sketchy on any defensive metric still
all the indicators are pointing to average-to-good as it would seem, so I’m not gonna hang my hat on a good or a bad or anything.
Hope got in my eyes
by Andrew Martin on Oct 20, 2009 1:52 PM MDT up reply actions
Remember that I’m separating range and errors there – I don’t expect range to be his problem going forward as he improves, but errors (that 145 means and error rate 145% of league average, which is something like 5-10 extra errors a season depending on his playing time).
--
Dan Szymborski
dan@baseballprimer.com
by D.Szymborski on Oct 20, 2009 2:01 PM MDT up reply actions
we don't have the benefit of the UZR type system in the minors though
unless I’m mistaken
How are you distinguishing the two? Defense is such a subjective thing, especially range. I’m sure we’re not just looking at the original range factors that Bill James started with.
My point is that in the majors, most the SABR guys aren’t looking at simply errors and putouts and such, they don’t tell us much about the placement of the ball. What do we have to expand on these basic observations for the minor league level?
Hope got in my eyes
by Andrew Martin on Oct 20, 2009 2:05 PM MDT up reply actions
We do have slightly better-than-basic defensive stats for the data. Jeff Sackmann helpfully gives hit location and type data to both me and Sean Smith every offseason. No, it’s not UZR, but Smith has demonstrated that just knowing the hit location and type can get us most of the way to a player’s UZR without actually knowing everything we’d like.
The errors are generally easier to deal with since they’re recorded better and while fielding percentage is a weak measure of defensive ability by itself, it is one of the more consistent numbers and predicts future fielding percentage pretty well.
With all the caveats about imperfect data, it does seem that, though he does look a little awkward at times, he’s not really that bad overall defensively, with decent range balancing out some of the error problems. And it’s certainly worth keeping him there until he really shows he can’t handle the position.
--
Dan Szymborski
dan@baseballprimer.com
by D.Szymborski on Oct 20, 2009 4:23 PM MDT up reply actions
thank you for the insight, Dan
Hope got in my eyes
by Andrew Martin on Oct 20, 2009 7:50 PM MDT up reply actions
It's a projection system
It’s going to be pessimistic on Tulo and CarGo, who’ve never put up stats like they did last year. I don’t really know what to expect from either guy other than I agree they should do better than the projections. CarGo’s overall line of .350-ish/.520-ish is probably a good target, since it was always thought he has the tools he showed here once he got comfortable. Tulo…geez, he was very consistent June on, but it’s such a huge leap from what he’s done in the past. But yeah, you figure he’ll do better on the power numbers (even accounting for the relatively low # of games projected). Or else the other numbers would be worse (as it would mean he pulls a Barmes/Stewart next year and swings for the fences to the detriment of his overall approach).
Leave Dexter alone! You're lucky he even performs for you!
Apparently DLR is only going to walk 6 batters next year.
Impossible not to have positive thoughts.
I want Sam Deduno to pitch already.
by bballrox4717 on Oct 20, 2009 3:23 PM MDT up reply actions
hahahahaha
Oh, that’s funny!
Dear Rockies - 2009 NL Wild Card Champs. Best turnaround in MLB history for a team to win the Wild Card. Thank you for a wonderful rollercoaster of a season. Can't wait to do it again next year!!
Troy Tulowitzki - THE best SS in the game..nuff said
Yorvit Torrealba - En Fuego!! (when hitting 6th or 7th)
Brad Hawpe- Big Bad Brad, I hope I get to see you in a Rockies uniform again!
Dexter Fowler - prowling CF, WC in his talons, leaping Utley's in a single bound!
Well, he could blow out his shoulder on April 15th.
That should be 69 walks.
--
Dan Szymborski
dan@baseballprimer.com
by D.Szymborski on Oct 20, 2009 4:16 PM MDT up reply actions
How can you utter such disaster?
If that happens I will write mean things about you on bathroom walls!
Order a Rocktober t-shirt in time for the playoffs and donate to charity at:
Purple Row Cares
most obvious quote:
Livan “Pitcher of Fail” Hernandez
To all of the doubters, to all of the haters, one simple message:
We will be back! Our purple knights will be victorious once again.
by The Lodo Magic Man on Oct 20, 2009 6:00 PM MDT up reply actions
Just saw on ESPN that Jim Tracy is close to signing a multi-year contract
I'm still hoping to wake up from that nightmare I had about the 9th inning of Game 4.
by RhodeIslandRoxfan on Oct 20, 2009 4:13 PM MDT reply actions
get this and O'dowd's done NOW
To all of the doubters, to all of the haters, one simple message:
We will be back! Our purple knights will be victorious once again.
by The Lodo Magic Man on Oct 20, 2009 6:13 PM MDT up reply actions
Esp. O'Dowd so we can start up the hot stove
Leave Dexter alone! You're lucky he even performs for you!
Just thinking about the Tracy thing - in any other business
There would be no question of him being rewarded for his excellent results with a good new deal. Maybe sometimes in baseball we’re so preoccupied with the causes of the results we become a bit contrary.
(NB I am a “give him a year and make him earn his 2011 deal” voter)
lets break it down
rockies better record 2 of the last 3 yrs
rockies 74 wins in 08, A’s 75 wins
rockies since 2000 3 above .500 seasons
A’s since 2000 7 above .500 seasons
draft:
since 2000, rockies 5 top 15 picks
since 2000 A’s 2 top 15 picks which came in the last 2 yrs before that their highest non comp pick choices were in the 20-26 range
its foolish to debate, since rockies are currently the better team, but everything goes in cycles. plus imo tyhat fangraphs article had some flaws in research and info.
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