NLDS Preview: Pitching - Where Frank Azar isn't the only Strong Arm
by Andrew Martin on Oct 6, 2009 6:49 PM MDT
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Are you all ready to have a little Phun? Or are we all set for a massive PhailPhest?
Starting September, the Phillies were sitting at 76-53, comfortably in charge of the NL East, watching the Braves and Marlins scuffle against each other to try and catch up to the Rockies. Since that point, they went 17-16 to finish the season with a final tally of 93-69, 6.0 games up on Florida and 7.0 up on Atlanta. During that stretch, the Phillies outscored their opponents by a tally of 155 to 146, giving them a Pythagorean W-L of 18-16, or essentially they underplayed their own performance by 1 game.
But seeing how we're here to talk about pitching, let's look at the Phillies' staff down the stretch. During the stretch, opponents batted a collective .271/.330/.414 against Phillies pitching, or about league average in terms of OPS+. The collective pitching staff allowed 4 or fewer runs 19 times and 5 or more 13 times.
Incidentally, the Rockies' Runs per Game is a scratch below 5, at 4.96.
But the staff has sprung a few leaks, which we'll touch on in just a second.
The Phillies plan on throwing 3 tough lefties at the Rockies in an effort to take the NLDS. Everybody is terrified and upset and "oh woe is us, left handed pitching it is our weakest of weaknesses!" Well, I'm not so sold on that concept. We certainly hit RHP better than LHP, and much of that is thanks to the strong lefties in the lineup, but what DO we actually do against LHP vs RHP?
|
Split |
BA |
OBP |
SLG |
OPS |
OPS+ |
|
vs RHP as RH |
.250 |
.318 |
.406 |
.724 |
99 |
|
vs RHP as LH |
.276 |
.371 |
.479 |
.849 |
118 |
|
vs LHP as RH |
.254 |
.337 |
.447 |
.784 |
103 |
|
vs LHP as LH |
.252 |
.331 |
.402 |
.733 |
109 |
|
vs RHP |
.264 |
.346 |
.445 |
.791 |
110 |
|
vs LHP |
.253 |
.335 |
.430 |
.765 |
103 |
Now, the number I'd like to direct your attention to is the one in the bottom-right-hand-corner. That 103. It may seem somewhat insignificant, and definitely smaller than the 110 right above it, but that 103 means that we hit left handers better than the league average against left handers. Relative to us, we hit them worse, obviously, but we are an above-average offense facing RHP or LHP. Let that be a nugget of faith and hope for you all.
Join after the jump and we'll start grading the Phillies.
The Arms: B
Rotation: B
In the months of September/October, the Phillies rotation has posted an ERA of 4.39 and a FIP of 3.92. That's good for 9th in the Majors in FIP and 14th in ERA.
|
Name |
K/9 |
BB/9 |
K/BB |
HR/9 |
WHIP |
ERA |
FIP |
|
Cole Hamels |
8.16 |
1.94 |
4.20 |
0.39 |
1.12 |
3.69 |
2.56 |
|
Cliff Lee |
7.79 |
1.04 |
7.50 |
1.04 |
1.44 |
5.45 |
3.30 |
|
5.56 |
2.38 |
2.33 |
0.79 |
1.41 |
3.18 |
4.07 |
|
|
7.22 |
1.57 |
4.60 |
1.26 |
1.26 |
3.14 |
4.25 |
|
|
8.87 |
2.01 |
4.40 |
2.01 |
1.66 |
4.84 |
4.71 |
|
|
8.15 |
4.33 |
1.88 |
1.27 |
1.50 |
5.35 |
4.74 |
|
|
Jamie Moyer |
4.05 |
0.90 |
4.50 |
1.80 |
1.05 |
4.50 |
5.25 |
Now, the rotation still gets the higher grade because they've been pretty awesome for the majority of the season. Even though the ERAs of a couple of key pitchers may be a bit high, the FIPs, for the most part, are still in the range of "pretty good", but what's huge still are the K/BB ratios for all of the starters not named Joe Blanton. What that tells us is that while runs are crossing, the pitchers are still doing a lot of their job the right way still.
Bullpen: B-
Woooo hoo hoo, that's a fun line to look at there. This is the guy Charlie Manuel will be handing the ball to in the 9th inning. Knowing the Rockies' propensity to stage massive heroic comebacks, it could make for an incredibly interesting series.
Even accounting for Lidge, the Phills' bullpen has posted a 3.79 ERA and a 3.80 FIP, essentially showing us that they've earned every run they've given up. Amusingly enough, if you pull outBrad Lidge's failmotronic performance during that time, the bullpen's ERA drops from 3.79 to 3.31, FIP from 3.80 to 3.76. Lidge's FIP was actually decent, if you look at it, but that just kind of reinforces how FIP doesn't really tell the whole story. What we should remember is that underneath Lidge's terrible performances this season, his peripheral numbers are still pretty decent, so taking him lightly will not be a wise decision. In the meantime, Ryan Madson has been pretty decent as well, so we should definitely be prepared to face either of these fellers.
GAME 1
Wednesday, October 7, 12:37 MDT
vs.
Despite getting a bit wild over the final month of the season, Ubaldo Jimenez turned in his 6 starts for a 3-2 record with a 4.17 ERA and 3.37 FIP, while striking out 40 and walking 16 (2.50 K/BB). During those 6 starts, Jimenez whipped up 4 QS (2 of which had 7.0+ IP and <3 ER. The other two starts at least featured a combined K/BB of 13/5., or 2.60.
Lee, however, has proven to be somewhat mortal. Over his past 6 starts, he's only recorded 1 quality start (a 6-hit complete game shutout against the Nats), 2 starts allowing 6 or more runs, and 2 starts of 4.0 innings or less. That all said, he has also a 7.50 K/BB during that time....so he's still pretty lethal. Attacks of opportunity will be critical, converting any baserunners we can get, and at the very least, working his pitch count.
Favors: Phillies, slightly.
GAME 2
Thursday, October 8, 12:37 MDT
vs.
Aaron Cook is getting his first taste of the NLDS in his career. Sidelined for awhile with a shoulder injury, Aaron Cook has bounced back very strongly, tossing 5 scoreless against the Cardinals and 8 innings of 1-run, 4-hit ball against the Brewers.
Meanwhile Hamels had 7 starts between the first of September and now, putting up 4 QS, and his 3 most recent starts all featured 3 or more runs. During the final month and change, Hamels posted a 3.69 ERA and a 2.56 FIP to complement a 4.20 K/BB ratio.
Favors: Phillies, moderately
So finally, let's take a quick check and see who's on a streak.
Hot Blooded, Check 'em and see
Ryan Howard (Howard? Hot in September? Never!) - .395/.458/.744/1.203, 4HR, 48PA
Jimmy Rollins - .318/.375/.591/.966, 2HR, 48PA
They're as cold as ice
Chase Utley - .083/.171/.139, 3-for-36.
They will let you down, They will make you hurt
See Below
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those red links - those are my fault
I think you played my flute better than I can myself
"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein
by Andrew T. Fisher on Oct 6, 2009 7:19 PM MDT via mobile reply actions
oh stop
EXECUTE: It's the Clutch thing to do
by Andrew Martin on Oct 6, 2009 7:55 PM MDT up reply actions
You heard it here first..
Garret Atkins will have a big series.
Remember old folks, I'm just 17 years old =]
Ooops, Garrett*
Remember old folks, I'm just 17 years old =]
by CentralCaliRox on Oct 6, 2009 8:54 PM MDT up reply actions
Nice look at the matchups and pitching
If Cook keeps throwing the way he has since he returned then I think we have the pitching edge in Game 2. I know the season stats don’t bear that out, but the “what have you done for me lately” bumps Cook up and Hamels down. In game 1 I’d say its more of a toss-up, but Lee has not been the Cy Young Lee in a while (Games vs. Nats notwithstanding). I have a lot of faith in Ubaldo, and in the Rockies in general… But tehn I’m a hopeless optimist.
GO ROCKIES!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
"It is a mistake to look too far ahead. Only one link of the chain of destiny can be handled at a time." ~W. Churchill
So I was totally listening to "Hot Blooded" as I read this post.
Good things should come of this.
Eschew Obfuscation!
Hot Blooded Check it and see
I got an OPS+ against LHP of a hundred and three
"It is a mistake to look too far ahead. Only one link of the chain of destiny can be handled at a time." ~W. Churchill
OPS+ is on a scale of 100
EXECUTE: It's the Clutch thing to do
by Andrew Martin on Oct 7, 2009 6:51 AM MDT up reply actions
bullpen roles?
Beyond Lidge/Madsen, any idea what roles the rest of the guys play? How does Myers fit in? Are Durbin and Eyre their most likely middle guys…6th/7th inning close game guys?
They’re carrying 12 pitchers…is Manuel likely to go all Tracy on us with matchups?
Leave Dexter alone! You're lucky he even performs for you!
Batting splits: OPS+ or sOPS+?
Are the Rockies’ batting splits listed OPS+ or sOPS+? I assume from the numbers it’s the latter. (The baseline for OPS+ vs. sOPS+ is a bit different.)
Leave Dexter alone! You're lucky he even performs for you!
I used sOPS, but my understanding is that it's adjusted for the league
not just the team
EXECUTE: It's the Clutch thing to do
by Andrew Martin on Oct 8, 2009 1:08 AM MDT up reply actions
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