Thursday Rockpile: Role playing games
by Rox Girl on Oct 8, 2009 7:40 AM MDT
in Rockpile
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PrintMLB.com national writer Doug Miller seems to see the Phillies victory yesterday as the natural order of the baseball universe restoring itself and putting everybody in their proper place:
But when Cole Hamels fires the first pitch at 2:37 p.m. ET at Citizens Bank Park, we'll have the exact scenario we could have expected from this first-round matchup: the World Series champions flexing their muscles at home and the scrappy, resilient Rockies steeling themselves for yet another comeback on Major League Baseball's big stage.
The Phillies over the course of the 162 game regular season were slightly better than the Rockies, a 92 win team if we go by their expected record from runs scored/allowed (which is probably a more accurate measure of team strength than the actual record) compared to the 90 win team that Colorado was. Two games in the 2009 season and a best of seven series victory over the Tampa Bay Rays eleven months ago is apparently what transforms the Phillies into some sort of heavyweight with a huge advantage over the pesky, inferior Rockies who will have to resiliently scrap their way into a series win (also read as fluke). This simply isn't true, and it won't be true even if the Phillies sweep the Rockies, just like it wasn't true that the Rockies were that superior a team to Philadelphia in 2007.
Do not read anything into the results of a short series. If you are seeing some sort of clear randomness beating advantage for one team over the other, you are missing something and need to look closer. Just hope your team comes out on top.
Mark Kiszla tries to offer some advice to Jim Tracy in this regard, and whenever I find myself in agreement with what Kiszla says, I have to wonder what I'm doing wrong. Actually, I'm only in partial agreement. I really don't think that the Rockies lose power by replacing Brad Hawpe with Seth Smith, particularly if they're also replacing Garrett Atkins with Ian Stewart.
Jim Armstrong writes about Ubaldo Jimenez.
And just in case you missed it yesterday, Rick Reilly licked the capitol dome in Denver to fulfill a promise he made if the Rockies made the playoffs. I have no idea why people don't make outlandish promises like "finish a bowl of ice cream" or "visit Hawaii," but if licking domes is their thing, more power to them.
I'm going to abbreviate the post and end it here so there's a fresh thread on the front page. Feel free to add other links you've found this morning in the comments.
P.S. - Dex at Gaslamp Ball for many years warned us about the evil of Jayson Werth, I really wish we paid more attention to him and sent somebody to get rid of this guy while we had the chance.
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The Sage has spoken
Kruk says the Phillies will get their SBs and runs today against Cook. The only question is whether Rockies can score. His suggestion – bench the left-handed slumping Hawpe for (the right-handed slumping) Spilly.
The change I am most interested is whether playing CDI would slow down their run game, or at least give them enough to think about that they slow themselves down a bit. Good move or panic?
Seems to me Tracy is not shy about making changes he sees as being in the team’s best interest. I would not be surprised to see lineup changes today at outfield, third, and catcher.
Happiness is October baseball
the SBs
were more on the pitcher than on Yorvit.
but i still wouldn’t mind seeing Ianetta. Might help psychologically.
I think Cookie will do a better job holding on runners than Uball did.
Yorvit swung the bat pretty well yesterday, but he doesn’t offer the big bang you need in Philly – take advantage of what the park gives you.
we need to score early, get some of the pressure off…
watch this space for a soon to be created clever remark....
Yesterday was certainly discouraging
The Rockies at their worst display rally killing popouts and strikeouts and epic brain meltdowns by the starting pitching. We got both yesterday.
Cook seems more immune than Ubaldo to the brain/emotion issues, but I don’t see hope for the offense absent a shakeup. Has Giambi ever played 3rd base? RIght field?
good stuff RG
particularly on the difference between the phillies and the rox being so small – several of my eastern friends were stunned in the last couple of days when i told them the phils won 1 more game than the rox this year…
however, the rox are built on depth, and in a short series, it’s often top end firepower that carries the day.
let’s hope the bats show up early and often today..
I’m confident in Cookie and our pen, if we give them a chance…
Just heard Jim Armstrong on the radio – no wind today!!!
watch this space for a soon to be created clever remark....
yeah...
and, you know, even when one team is a shit-ton better than the other, they’re still only gonna win any individual game like 60% of the time or so. baseball, more than any other sport, is capricious – especially in the playoffs when everything is basically a crapshoot.
is what i tell myself the day after, for the first time ever, my two favorite teams lose in the playoffs…
Here's Where Jimenez Went Wrong
http://mlb.fanhouse.com/2009/10/08/heres-where-jimenez-went-wrong/
Happiness is October baseball
This is interesting, because this is exactly what I was noticing
when I was at Coors for the Saturday game against the Cards. He was getting beat on sliders almost every time. At the time I blamed this on Torre for calling way too many breaking pitches. I am wondering, is this on Torre or Uball? I feel like most of the time the pitcher is trusting the catcher to call the game, so this is on Torre. They need to continue to pound the fastball. 93-95 is hard enough to hit, and then 97-99 like Uball is almost impossible to get great swings on it. Pound the fastball in game 5 Uball, I am hoping for a game 5.
Rox, please start playing with heart! Let's finish this thing off!
as they say, insanity is doing the same thing over and over...
This has been U’s problem during the whole season (and why I just can’t call him an ace yet). His usual inevitable breakdown inning happens against the bottom of the order and after allowing a bloop hit or walk he throws a hanging slider to the 8 or 9 hole hitter. Everyone has noticed it (including Frazier:) which makes me think hitters in this sitch are just sitting on the slider.
I’ve heard Tracy/Apodoca mention how they want U to challenge the hitter in these situations and express some frustration at U’s approach so it’s confusing as to who is making the decision to throw the slider rather than high heat at these critical points in the ballgame. From my informal observations, I’d say when U throws the high cheese to the hitter he gets a K or a weak grounder 90% of the time and with the slider gives up a hit around 60% of the time…
I can't decide whether I'm hungry or just really tired.
I think it would be interesting to know
what goes into calling pitches on a pitch-by-pitch basis. Obviously a lot of advance strategy goes into this and each batter is different, and pitched to accordingly. I can’t imagine that Yorvit/CDI are just going on whim up there, or that Tracy/Dac don’t make in-game modifications. These guys put a LOT of thought into this stuff, but I just don’t know how it actually translates to the hill. Probably the kind of “insider” stuff you can’t get easily, but would be really interesting to know.
I don't know who
but someone tracks pitches and has hot/cold zones to the batters. The pitchers/catchers/coaches look at these in the scouting reports and determine the best possible way to approach the batter. I just don’t know where to find this stuff.
"We made too many wrong mistakes." ~Yogi Berra
"The ballplayer who loses his head, who can't keep his cool, is worse than no ballplayer at all." ~Lou Gehrig
JFK
exactly
There’s obviously some method behind the madness…
If I was a sooper nerd I’d also try to figure out how many times they call the slider in that situation and U just misses his spot (but I haven’t got that kind of time). ;)
I can't decide whether I'm hungry or just really tired.
Torrealba simply doesn't call a good game (or do any of the "little things" well), despite what many commentators will tell you.
And yes, I’ll fully admit that I don’t like Torrealba and never have.
Eschew Obfuscation!
thanks for the insight
perhaps you are the one to answer my question above regarding the strategy of these things. or more likely you think Yorvit just makes it up as he goes.
The problem that I have with Yorvit is that he's too predictable.
I always seem to know exactly when he’s going to call a breaking pitch in the dirt or a fastball at the numbers. And the other team, more often than not, seems to know it too.
I think that Yorvit has a plan, but it is too simple for the MLB level.
Eschew Obfuscation!
And if you really think its only Yorvit
making the calls, well then I don’t think you know what is happening. I’m not saying that I do, but I’m 99.9% certain that if Yorvit is just up there picking on a whim, than the team has some real problems.
If Torre does't have much input
then why does a catcher ever get credit for game calling, that credit should go to coaches only.
Rox, please start playing with heart! Let's finish this thing off!
I honestly don't know
and was the basis for my post above. Certainly, the C does call the individual pitches (or is shaken off). But is all based on scouting, strategy, etc. And if he was making so many bad calls, you’d see Tracy or Dac telling him about it or yanking the duties. You have to assume that, in general, he is calling the pitches that the management wants him to call overall.
No I don't. Of course not.
I’ve never played at the ML level but I have at least some experience with this. The catcher does have some discretion but by no means is it absolute.
I guess that I don’t agree with how the Rockies as a whole call games.
Eschew Obfuscation!
That is fair enough
And I tend to agree in principle with Uball’s approach. Watching Brox just mow down everyone yesterday makes me think that Uball should be gunning a lot more.
If you go any futher out on there
I think your next logical step would be to shoot him as he leaves the stadium one night.
I know, right?
I’ve got a mental image of some sort of Cape Fear/Ray Finkle type situation coming here…
No danger of that. I don't like him as a baseball player but I respect him as a man.
Which is much more important. There are other things in life besides baseball.
Eschew Obfuscation!
I have long thought the "great game calling" of Torre
is overrated as well. On top of that, he can’t throw anyone out (ok maybe Howard), and other teams know it and will continue to run off of him. Obv. Lee stole the base off of Uball, but the fact that he even thought about it has a lot to do w/ Torre as well. I like the way he is approaching the plate, and is going the other way and putting the ball in play, but I still think CDI should get the start today.
Rox, please start playing with heart! Let's finish this thing off!
ubaldo just suddently lost confidence in his ability to locate the fastball
in the 5th – no idea why, well, i guess cause he suddenly couldn’t get it over the plate.
That is when they went breaking ball crazy.
watch this space for a soon to be created clever remark....
So say it snows Saturday morning
…and say it’s like 2" and no sun to bake it off. Would they be able to clear the outfield and get the game in?
Happiness is October baseball
yes
it has heating coils, they’ll put the tarp down.
just as long as the snow stops maybe a couple hours before the game, no problem.
watch this space for a soon to be created clever remark....
It's looking more and more
like the games will be delayed until Monday/Tuesday.
Freezing rain and snow, highs in the low 30s for Saturday, snow showers expected to begin Sunday night.
if 07 playoffs were any indication
and that crappy rain game we had then, the game will be played. come hell or high water. And 07…it was high water. Snow is nothing.
Sounds more like a Shrek
Dude, be the onion.
Watching the purple row from high atop the big brown monolith on California Ave
freezing-a** high water
my entire body was numb and my hat rim was frozen ice after that game…Redonkulous!
I can't decide whether I'm hungry or just really tired.
I really really hope so.
I love rockies playoff games as much as the next fanatic, but I’d be able to stick around for 3+ hours of freezing.
Never give up, never surrender.
Should be
*I don’t think I’d be able to
Never give up, never surrender.
Reason number 5 billion why baseball is better than football
Snow is football weather.
Never give up, never surrender.
I think I'll be using a couple from ddavis539,
thanks for keeping me in mind though. Also, you should read the fanpost about a pregame meetup (should the game still be happening.) It’ll be fun.
Never give up, never surrender.
I'm at choir practice during the game
And I can’t miss it as we’re performing on Saturday, gulp. So if any kind soul who doesn’t have to pay for intercontinental text messaging wants to text me score updates as the game progresses, you’d be making a Britisher very happy :)
if you buy into WPA
you can sign up for twitter updates whenever there’s a big swing either way in WPA from Fangraphs
EXECUTE: It's the Clutch thing to do
by Andrew Martin on Oct 8, 2009 10:34 AM MDT up reply actions
you can sign up for text message twitter updates.
EXECUTE: It's the Clutch thing to do
by Andrew Martin on Oct 8, 2009 10:47 AM MDT up reply actions
I have a suspicion you can't in the UK, but I'll check
(you used to be able to – when I signed up for Twitter 2 years ago it was all about sending and receiving texts, but then Things Changed…)
d'oh
EXECUTE: It's the Clutch thing to do
by Andrew Martin on Oct 8, 2009 10:52 AM MDT up reply actions
Also look at 4info.com
www.4info.com
They send me texts whenever a game starts, and whenever there is a score.
Don’t know about international support, but worth looking into.
Ignorance of the American League is a sign of good moral character.
Look out Dodgers...Purple objects in mirror are closer than they appear.
I'll be the guy in a orange shirt EVERY Monday...Broncos are my team win or lose.
Thanks for this
But no, seems it’s US only. I wonder if I could persuade my gf (who has mlb at bat on her iphone) to text me instead? I’m a bit worried at using up her baseball patience – last night I went round hers and made her a baseball widow, and she looked a bit long-suffering…
For people who care
Heltonfan who has posted here and who is a mod at thescoreboards.com forums, released his 2010 projections. He has the Rockies as a 90 win team. Go read here.
http://www.thescoreboards.com/forums/showthread.php?t=107854
Brad Hawpe - Providing Air Conditioning to Catchers Everywhere.
Hey I'm on Youtube!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_gAlLTZsGUg
His spreadsheet is massive
that’s a lot of work
"We made too many wrong mistakes." ~Yogi Berra
"The ballplayer who loses his head, who can't keep his cool, is worse than no ballplayer at all." ~Lou Gehrig
JFK
he must hate baseball
EXECUTE: It's the Clutch thing to do
by Andrew Martin on Oct 8, 2009 10:34 AM MDT up reply actions
Lineup for today's game
posted by Renck…
LF Carlos Gonzalez
CF Dexter Fowler
1B Todd Helton
SS Troy Tulowitzki
3B Garrett Atkins
C Yorvit Torrealba
RF Ryan Spilborghs
2B Clint Barmes
RHP Aaron Cook
Thoughts?
I can't decide whether I'm hungry or just really tired.
Superb outfield defense
those three will cover the smaller outfield like a blanket.
hope cookie can do the job keeping the runners close.
i’d like to see stewart – with cookie throwing the sinker, and adding one extra right handed bat in spilly….
watch this space for a soon to be created clever remark....
Better OF defense is just about the only thing that's better...
because Spilly has worse numbers than Hawpe this year against LHP. After Tulo that lineup is a sinkhole. Good luck getting runs.
Eschew Obfuscation!
I think you have officially gone crazier
than PHLP. Who has axes to grind, but still makes sense and valid points.
I was one of those who was against you in the CDI/Yorvit battle
but, I’d have liked to see CDI in there today given the splits vs. lefties. and great point about the lineup after Tulo – not a lot of pop there with the absence of Stewie, Hawpe and CDI’s bats. I only seeing us winning this game if we get one big hit, be it a 3-run bomb or a 3-run double.
May the Rockies bring me to paydirt!
NIGHT AND DAY
SERIOUSLY
EXECUTE: It's the Clutch thing to do
by Andrew Martin on Oct 8, 2009 10:37 AM MDT up reply actions
spilly can't do any worse than Hawpe yesterday
i’d rather see CDI than Yorvit too, but the spilly for Hawpe change can’t hurt
watch this space for a soon to be created clever remark....
This much is true.
I’d just prefer not to see “he couldn’t do any worse” be the best reason for replacing Hawpe. I’d prefer Smith, to which I’d say, “he’d probably do better” than Hawpe.
Eschew Obfuscation!
Exactly, Tracy is way too righty vs lefty matchup happy
Rox, please start playing with heart! Let's finish this thing off!
Agree and Torre happy, but I can't take too much away
from the man who managed this team pretty well for 3/4ths of the season.
Rox, please start playing with heart! Let's finish this thing off!
That's the thing though (and this is somewhat controversial)...
but Tracy has gotten the Rockies where they are by simply being a competent manager (not Clint Hurdle). He has let the starters go late in games and for the most part has managed the pen (sometimes overmanaged, but that’s a common failing) and thinks three or four steps ahead, which is refreshing.
However, he rode a Barmes hot streak in the two hole way past its expiration date (and a similar situation with Hawpe) and has NOT ONCE played an outfield of Smith/Fowler/CarGo. He has paid too much attention to platoon splits for some positions (the outfield namely, where Spilly has more PA than Smith) and not enough for others (catcher).
This is not to lessen the great contributions that he’s made to the team (and especially the pitching staff), but I have some serious issues with how Tracy manages his position players.
Eschew Obfuscation!
and yet not enough
hmmm Torrealba vs LHP .000/.002/.000
Iannetta vs LHP .756/.956/2.432
HMMMMM
ME THINKS THERE MIGHT BE MORE INVOLVED
(ok I’m kidding about the actual numbers but it really is a MASSIVE SPLIT)
EXECUTE: It's the Clutch thing to do
by Andrew Martin on Oct 8, 2009 11:11 AM MDT up reply actions
Those splits are awesome
For a second, I tried figuring out how Yorvit’s was mathematically possible
I can't disagree with this stuff
in general, but the fact is that he managed a dead-dog team nearly to the best record in the league, so saying that he was merely competent is either severely underselling him or stating that almost every other manager in the NL is garbage. (Which may be true.)
I think being a manager is like being a referee (or my job, but that’s a different issue): when you get it right, no credit because you are supposed to get it right. when you get it wrong, you are a fool, and “how could you not see this” and etc.
I was not a Tracy fan at first and I find his tinkering to be a bit maddening sometimes, but you gotta see the forest for the trees here. He’s been a massive success.
There is a reason (beyond the clear east coast/large market bias) that nobody thinks we have a chance to win the WS this year…the other teams are better. The fact that Tracy has us here is something pretty remarkable, and if he can do anything with this opportunity, all the more accolades…
I don't disagree he's done SOMETHING right
But firing Hurdle was addition by subtraction. The team just played like they were capable.
EXECUTE: It's the Clutch thing to do
by Andrew Martin on Oct 8, 2009 11:18 AM MDT up reply actions
I tend to agree that getting rid of Hurdle was huge
but your position is still suggesting that other managers could have done more than what Tracy did, and I seriously doubt you can come up with a compelling argument for that.
Regardless, more than anything, I give credit to the players, who made the plays to win the games. And that’s why I’m not too bent about this lineup thing: we still have 9 guys out there, 9 guys that to various degrees have been significant parts of where we are now. These guys can get it done, and its on them to do so.
I find the season-long contribution of managers negligible
as far as run production, etc is concerned.
But I won’t deny for a second that their influence over a team’s chemistry, etc, is something to be ignored.
That said, I will continue to criticize some of his personnel moves, but I will save the details until later so we have something to talk about in the offseason
EXECUTE: It's the Clutch thing to do
by Andrew Martin on Oct 8, 2009 11:23 AM MDT up reply actions
HUH?
ok…tracy sucks. and 2nd to worst to 2nd to best turn rounds happen ALL THE TIME in baseball.
Stewart and Iannetta are gods who should be playing every day, cause their .220 averages, demand it!
OK….I’m out.
come on Redhawk
I didn’t say any of that and you know it.
EXECUTE: It's the Clutch thing to do
by Andrew Martin on Oct 8, 2009 11:27 AM MDT up reply actions
What Tracy has done well is to manage the pitching game very well.
Which makes him more than competent in my eyes (yes I’m revising my above post). That is the single biggest edge that he has over other NL managers (who are basically all pretty bad) and has helped the Rockies win a lot of games.
I still maintain that his managing of the lineup is not that good.
Eschew Obfuscation!
I will get on board this
if he can actually get us to beat the Dodgers when it really counts.
EXECUTE: It's the Clutch thing to do
by Andrew Martin on Oct 8, 2009 11:23 AM MDT up reply actions
we're saving smith
to kill their right handed bull pen…
if only we can get there with a close game…
I’d be fine with Smith also, although I think SPilly is a far better defensive player than Smith.
watch this space for a soon to be created clever remark....
FFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFF
HOW ABOUT WE GIVE SMITH 3 OR 4 OPPORTUNITIES TO KILL THEIR STARTERS, AND THEN ALSO KILL THEIR BULLPEN
GAHHHHHHHHHHHH
EXECUTE: It's the Clutch thing to do
by Andrew Martin on Oct 8, 2009 11:06 AM MDT up reply actions
Hasn't Giambi taken the role of RHP bullpen destroyer?
"DAMMIT! No, calm down. Learn to enjoy losing." --Hunter S. Thompson
by PioneerSkies on Oct 8, 2009 11:06 AM MDT up reply actions
you can't have too many bullpen destroyers~~~
and i guess i should have put a big “TONGUE IN CHEEK” warning in my post…
watch this space for a soon to be created clever remark....
The importance of a bullpen is far overblown.
If your starters or hitters do well enough, they’re not important.
And yes, I caught your sarcasm. :p
Eschew Obfuscation!
it's a big if
because starters and hitters often falter. Not everyone can be Roy Halladay.
EXECUTE: It's the Clutch thing to do
by Andrew Martin on Oct 8, 2009 11:12 AM MDT up reply actions
I'm also ok with Spilly over Hawpe
Hawpe, looked hopeless at the plate yesterday. I feel it’s quite sad when we’re satisfied that we’re playing a guy who is 0 for his last 12 with 7 K’s over a guy who was on the all-star team this year.
May the Rockies bring me to paydirt!
darn you Carl Crawford!
give Hawpe his mojo back!!
/shakes fist
I can't decide whether I'm hungry or just really tired.
I'm not promising a loss, but that lineup doesn't give me a lot of confidence.
Omar Quintanilla’s pixies aren’t hopeful either.
Eschew Obfuscation!
I can't say I love it
but whatever. Those are the guys who have to go get it done, so go get it done…
"DAMMIT! No, calm down. Learn to enjoy losing." --Hunter S. Thompson
by PioneerSkies on Oct 8, 2009 10:35 AM MDT up reply actions
Jim Tracy hates Chris Iannetta
I’m almost sure of it.
If he’s gonna go all matchup happy with everyone else, go with Iannetta too.
NIGHT AND DAY, PEOPLE. NIGHT AND DAY.
EXECUTE: It's the Clutch thing to do
by Andrew Martin on Oct 8, 2009 10:35 AM MDT up reply actions
Honestly
I’ve wondered about this too. Not from an irrational “hatred” perspective, but rather from maybe something going on that leads these guys not to trust him. I mean, its clear as day that Hurdle never trusted him, and now we’re seeing it again with an entirely different type of manager. This is pure conjecture, but it does seem to me that there may be something going on behind the scenes that poisons these guys against CDI.
dick in the clubhouse?
Doesn’t prepare well? Goes out and drinks too much on road trips?
Goes off on a tirade
on a bus driver in Los Angeles?
"DAMMIT! No, calm down. Learn to enjoy losing." --Hunter S. Thompson
by PioneerSkies on Oct 8, 2009 10:44 AM MDT up reply actions
Something like that
is what I had in mind. I know that the Dodgers brass was really down on Russell Martin and almost traded him several times because of his clubhouse/latenight lifestyle, and no Dodger fan had any idea until it was released. This kind of stuff is hardly unlikely. THat said, I have no basis to think CDI has any problems like that and I’d hate to speculate, particularly about a kid who seems to be a good guy. But maybe its not a lifestyle/bad guy thing, but more a confidence thing? I don’t know, but I honestly do think there has to be something to it, because otherwise the situation doesn’t make a lot of sense.
problem with Iannetta
is that when he’s cold, he’s still productive (OPS and all that) but when he’s hot, he’s a destructive force of nature. Problem is, when he’s cold, he looks less productive than he is, and most managers will bench him for that.
EXECUTE: It's the Clutch thing to do
by Andrew Martin on Oct 8, 2009 10:50 AM MDT up reply actions
The problem is confirmation bias.
Yorvit and Atkins got XBHs yesterday, therefore Tracy made a good decision in playing them.
Eschew Obfuscation!
From a commenter (PhillyFriar) at The Good Phight:
And a minor — but potentially important — observation: Torrealba and Atkins had 2 of the Rockies’ 6 hits. Tracy is really doing the Rockies a disservice by sitting Iannetta and Stewart in favor of those two; they’re both better hitters, and Stewart is a far superior fielder to Atkins. But Tracy could be a victim of his own confirmation bias here… "See, Torrealba and Atkins should be playing, because they got hits!" And that would definitely be a good thing for the Phils.
Eschew Obfuscation!
but don't all you SABR types
think that you throw out the rules in a short series at the feet of the gods of randomness? So shouldn’t confirmation bias (to the extent it has any meaning in this context, which I dispute) go out the window?
it didn't seem too random to me when we once again struggled against a lefty
starter yesterday, especially when on the road.
May the Rockies bring me to paydirt!
well, some things don't need stats
and are just facts. Hopefully they won’t be facts today.
ain't that the freaking truth
the problem is, what of both of them go 0fer the next 2 games, and we’re left with yet another whatif/toldyaso?
EXECUTE: It's the Clutch thing to do
by Andrew Martin on Oct 8, 2009 10:51 AM MDT up reply actions
I've said it before and I'll say it again
every decision that works in the playoffs is the right one, and vice versa. Yesterday, Tracy’s decisions were wrong. Hopefully today he’s right.
BUT WHAT IS THE DEFINITION OF INSANITY, TEEKALONG
EXECUTE: It's the Clutch thing to do
by Andrew Martin on Oct 8, 2009 10:53 AM MDT up reply actions
trying to reduce baseball to numbers? Ha ha
couldn’t help it. But a lot of times I think that you sabr types are in line for the fate of the dude in that Aranofsky movie “Pi.”
Back on subject, I agree with the idea that CDI and Stew should be playing today. I would prefer it, going in. And if Yorvit and Atkins go bust today, I’ll be upset. But no reason to worry about it anymore, the cards are on the table.
Didn't really like that movie....
"DAMMIT! No, calm down. Learn to enjoy losing." --Hunter S. Thompson
by PioneerSkies on Oct 8, 2009 10:57 AM MDT up reply actions
yeah me either
but its been so long since I’ve seen it and its stuck in my brain a bit, so I have to give it credit for that at least…
I don't see why not,
self lobotomization is a subject that’s always a winner. Box office gold, I tell you.
Yeah. WAY too disturbing for me.
That being said, I wouldn’t mind hearing what WolfMarauder thinks about the film.
I’d like to hear from Sideshow Mel!
"DAMMIT! No, calm down. Learn to enjoy losing." --Hunter S. Thompson
by PioneerSkies on Oct 8, 2009 11:05 AM MDT up reply actions
There are several
And the one you’re thinking of doesn’t really apply to baseball
"It is a mistake to look too far ahead. Only one link of the chain of destiny can be handled at a time." ~W. Churchill
i'm a sabr type
from way back (of course, i’m way older than most of you, so I have an advantage!! lol) I started reading Bill James in 84 or 85 – he published a little pamphlet.
still, i’d agree- stats mean a lot over the long run – over a couple of games, not so much…
watch this space for a soon to be created clever remark....
HUH?
(this is not personally to you, but need further explaination)
If a manager plays a player, that gets an extra basis hit. That is a bad move? I thought that was the idea. To put the right players in the game, that will perform, which Atkins and Torrealba did yesterday.
neither of them are
but you could easily play the “blind squirrel, nut” card with either of them. It makes sense with Atkins, but Torrealba’s hot streak kind of nullifies that.
Cliff Lee beat us yesterday. That said, we have Captain Uber Groundball starting today, we should play the best glove possible in the IF.
EXECUTE: It's the Clutch thing to do
by Andrew Martin on Oct 8, 2009 11:07 AM MDT up reply actions
that's the debate
is it better to score a run or prevent a run?
EXECUTE: It's the Clutch thing to do
by Andrew Martin on Oct 8, 2009 11:12 AM MDT up reply actions
let's not argue the makeup of the run
the on-the-surface debate is “Atkins = better LHP offense, Stewart = better glove, pick one”
EXECUTE: It's the Clutch thing to do
by Andrew Martin on Oct 8, 2009 11:15 AM MDT up reply actions
Gotcha, we're staying with surface level analysis today.
Today run prevention will be more important.
Eschew Obfuscation!
Wrong
Stewart: Month of Sept: OBP: .333
Stewart: OBP vs LHP in 09: .278
Atkins: Month of Sept: OBP: .308
Atkins: OBP vs LHP in 09: .363
Source Baseball Reference.
SMALL SAMPLE SIZE REDHAWK
DUHHHH
no, good work pulling the numbers on that. I didn’t feel up to it.
EXECUTE: It's the Clutch thing to do
by Andrew Martin on Oct 8, 2009 11:24 AM MDT up reply actions
This is true. No really, I'm agreeing with you. Against lefties Stewart makes more outs.
But…depending on which splits you look at we’re both right?
Eschew Obfuscation!
by .025
which is one hit or walk difference. So there is basicly NO difference on OBP for the month of Sept.
so...we should start Stewart?
EXECUTE: It's the Clutch thing to do
by Andrew Martin on Oct 8, 2009 11:29 AM MDT up reply actions
not against a left handed pitcher
in my opinion. Our line up is shaky on the road, and against lefties to begin with. Putting one more auto out just kills the line up. I mean to play Stewart, you are hoping for a 1-0 or a 2-1 game…against the phils in Citi Field. And that’s asking a lot of Cook.
but you just said they have a negligibly different OBP
insinuating that they’re both similarly automatic outs…
EXECUTE: It's the Clutch thing to do
by Andrew Martin on Oct 8, 2009 11:35 AM MDT up reply actions
the OBP
was for both lefties and righties for sept. (couldn’t break it out just for the last month).
Their numbers to me scream traditional left/right platoon. And since there is a lefty starting…that means Atkins.
And by no means do I think Atkins is all that great. The fact that Stewart with his superior defense can’t separate himself from Atkins as a total package baseball player, is a real issue.
oh I thought they were just LHP numbers
carry on
EXECUTE: It's the Clutch thing to do
by Andrew Martin on Oct 8, 2009 11:43 AM MDT up reply actions
let's just keep drilling down
do what all the joe morgans out there think SABR people do, look at absurd splits to see what one guy is better at or whatever
Ok, we need ABs in Sept, v LHP, with 1 shoe untied, 1 inch too little pine tar, slightly cloudy, cheerios with 1% milk for breakfast, and an argument with his aunt the day before.
Go.
EXECUTE: It's the Clutch thing to do
by Andrew Martin on Oct 8, 2009 11:26 AM MDT up reply actions
Yes, I wish Stewart was starting
But still, we are totally going to WIN this game!
FAITH PEOPLE
OPTIMISM
CHEER
"It is a mistake to look too far ahead. Only one link of the chain of destiny can be handled at a time." ~W. Churchill
And I'd like to point out the Rockies record under Tracy
is the best in baseball. So he’s helped this team find lots of nuts. It’s not random. Hurdle couldn’t do it, and it’s not even close.
again, if Tracy wants Cook to bat 4th in the line up….I give him the benefit of the doubt.
hey, he might walk three times
and have two ribbies…
I can't decide whether I'm hungry or just really tired.
Hurdle was a lot of off-field drama as well
personality clashes, stagnant relationships, too much mental blahblah between the team and him.
EXECUTE: It's the Clutch thing to do
by Andrew Martin on Oct 8, 2009 11:13 AM MDT up reply actions
They performed once each. This much is true.
The other times they didn’t look so hot. Atkins failing to do anything but pop up on a 2-0 changeup up in the zone with two runners on in the first is the indelible image of Game 1 for me.
Eschew Obfuscation!
worst. ride. ever.
EXECUTE: It's the Clutch thing to do
by Andrew Martin on Oct 8, 2009 11:18 AM MDT up reply actions
punt
EXECUTE: It's the Clutch thing to do
by Andrew Martin on Oct 8, 2009 11:24 AM MDT up reply actions
I seem to remember
that when Tracy took over, he spoke very highly of CDI. During his first press conference as manager, didn’t he point to CDI’s injury/slump as a factor for why the team was performing so poorly?
"DAMMIT! No, calm down. Learn to enjoy losing." --Hunter S. Thompson
by PioneerSkies on Oct 8, 2009 10:50 AM MDT up reply actions
that's it
I don’t like him anymore. At all.
EXECUTE: It's the Clutch thing to do
by Andrew Martin on Oct 8, 2009 10:51 AM MDT up reply actions
FWIW
At the time it didn’t seem like Tracy was painting CDI in a negative light at all.
"DAMMIT! No, calm down. Learn to enjoy losing." --Hunter S. Thompson
by PioneerSkies on Oct 8, 2009 10:57 AM MDT up reply actions
Tracy is a bit old school
He likes leaving in starters when they’re hot, he likes (liked?) not messing with a winning team, and he no doubt likes players who come up clutch* at the key point of the season. I don’t think we have to assume a prejudice against CDI.
*disclaimer: at this time there is no scientific evidence for the existence of “clutch”
I personally don't approve of throwing your catcher under the bus
so that captain scrappy mc firetemper can get hot jusssst at the right time after sucking it up for 18 months and give the manager credence to start him and get to bench his whipping boy for being the cause and downfall of this entire team.
Jim Tracy would just explode with joy if we got like Jason Kendall or someone here, I can just see it.
EXECUTE: It's the Clutch thing to do
by Andrew Martin on Oct 8, 2009 10:57 AM MDT up reply actions
Confirmation bias:
Kendall hit a HR against us down the stretch. ZOMG CLUTCH!!!1
"DAMMIT! No, calm down. Learn to enjoy losing." --Hunter S. Thompson
by PioneerSkies on Oct 8, 2009 10:59 AM MDT up reply actions
Interesting Bloomberg article on why Wild Card teams do well in the playoffs
Basic point is that having games 3 and 4 at home is a big advantage if you can steal on on the road.
The secret weapon for successful wild-card teams has been the ability to "break serve" in the opening road games, and then "hold serve" back at home. For example, if Boston can win just one game in Anaheim, with aces Jon Lester and Josh Beckett on the mound, they capture home-field advantage from the Angels and could close out the series at Fenway Park.
And often as not, that’s just what baseball’s overachieving underdogs have done. Division-Series-winning wild-card teams have won a mind-boggling 88 percent of their home games.
what percentage of home games have division series losing wild card teams lost?
My guess is that it’s something “mind-boggling” like 28 percent.
LOL yeah I noticed that
to win the division series as a wild card you pretty much have to win 90% of your home games
err, replace the word lost with "won" or reverse the percentage
or else my comment doesn’t say what I meant it to. I’m just saying if you take a sample of winning teams and find out that they’ve won a lot, you probably aren’t breaking much new ground.
100 minutes before first pitch I can see we are all confident heading into game 2
May the Rockies bring me to paydirt!
I am confident!!!
everyone else around here is depressing the hell out of me though
"It is a mistake to look too far ahead. Only one link of the chain of destiny can be handled at a time." ~W. Churchill
I wish I wasn't like this
But I’m much more comfortable being an “expecting to lose” person than an “expecting to win” person.
You have to allow yourself to be in a position
to get hurt. Otherwise you are not truly alive!
"It is a mistake to look too far ahead. Only one link of the chain of destiny can be handled at a time." ~W. Churchill
This thread needs some CHEER!!!
"It is a mistake to look too far ahead. Only one link of the chain of destiny can be handled at a time." ~W. Churchill
In other (unrelated) news...
GOOD NEWS EVERYONE!
I found out today that I passed the bar exam!
"DAMMIT! No, calm down. Learn to enjoy losing." --Hunter S. Thompson
by PioneerSkies on Oct 8, 2009 11:02 AM MDT up reply actions
Congratulations!
"It is a mistake to look too far ahead. Only one link of the chain of destiny can be handled at a time." ~W. Churchill
that can only be a good sign for today's game - congats!
May the Rockies bring me to paydirt!
Omg that is hilarious!
Gladly sharing a name with Dexter Fowler!
by ShadowPenguin on Oct 8, 2009 11:16 AM MDT up reply actions
GO!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
"It is a mistake to look too far ahead. Only one link of the chain of destiny can be handled at a time." ~W. Churchill
ROCKIEEEESSSSSSSS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
"It is a mistake to look too far ahead. Only one link of the chain of destiny can be handled at a time." ~W. Churchill
ok, here is the secret stuff
mrs RMC has two cats who sleep in the bed with her at night (until I show up,then they scatter).
One sleep by here head – she calls him the catcher. The other sleeps down at the far corner – she calls him the 2nd baseman.
Tuesday night, they were running all over, seemed very nervous (and she told me this).
Last night, calm, back in their regular spots.
She thinks they (representing the Rox) had the first game jitters, but are now calm and back to normal…
Hey, stranger stuff has happened…. lol
watch this space for a soon to be created clever remark....
perfect, I like it.
should’ve gotten the live chicken
EXECUTE: It's the Clutch thing to do
by Andrew Martin on Oct 8, 2009 11:14 AM MDT up reply actions
i did get crispy chicken from Pei Wei, is that close enough???
xx
watch this space for a soon to be created clever remark....
might be
but whatever, it’s Rocktober, knock your socks off
EXECUTE: It's the Clutch thing to do
by Andrew Martin on Oct 8, 2009 11:18 AM MDT up reply actions
BACKS AGAINST THE WALL!!
(stolen from some one higher up the thread)
I like it, this is our rally cry for today
Either that, or stealing from the Immortal Bill Murray in Meatballs – “IT JUST DOESN”T MATTER!!"
watch this space for a soon to be created clever remark....
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