JDLR at 3/$36 and the Rockies Payroll

by deacs on Nov 10, 2009 5:32 PM MST

The other day, the idea that George of the Rose could be looking for three and $36M was discussed. A lot of people expressed dismay that he might leave, or get too expensive. Some said he would be worth the $12M/year.

But how much can the Rockies afford to spend on their pitching staff? I was thinking, on the way home and without the numbers, that the starting staff budget would preclude signing DLR for that much. The money would be tied up in Cook and Jimenez. Then I actually looked at the numbers.

2010-2012 salaries:
Cook: $9M, $9.25M, $11M (mutual option)
Baldo: $1.25, $2.8M, $4.2M (2013:$5.75 option, 2014: $8M
Francis: $5.75M, $7M

So that's 2010: $16M, 2011: $19M, 2012: $15.2M

If JDLR has a great year, could the Rockies squeeze in another $12M to the starters' budget starting in 2011? Maybe not at that salary, but at 3/$24M, it's pretty reasonable (assuming another jump in performance in 2010).

In 2012, the Rockies only have $42.933 committed with low-level arb increases and only Street and JDLR to worry about as FAs. By 2013, the Rockies only have Tulowitzki's $10M, the $8M option on Baldo, and Hammel's 4th year of arb.

I'm excited by this huge amount of flexibility, and that in three years, they are only obligated to players you should be obligated to: a top-tier shortstop and a front-end starter. Nice situation to build around over the next two years.

Eat. Drink. Be Merry. But the above FanPost does not necessarily reflect the attitudes, opinions, or views of Purple Row's staff (unless, of course, it's written by the staff [and even then, it still might not]).

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I think the big thing is that in 2012 we get Helton's albatross of contract out of the equation.

That’s going to free up a lot of space which I think we will probably use to retain many of the core young players we have coming up. That seems to be the model this franchise is trying to perfect. While the space will be there for someone in the middle of a 3/36 deal, it just goes against everything this franchise is trying to do. The reason why that space is there is because the Rockies have not given players in or approaching free agency contracts like this. At least not in recent years.

Is it possible that a 3/36 deal for JDLR will be worth it? Absolutely. But for a team with a payroll the size of the Rockies, the penalty for making the wrong call on a contract like this will be steep. Can we afford it? Yes. However, if the Rockies are to go through with something like this, they better be damn sure they are right.

I wonder if Bud Selig will give the Yankees a receipt with their World Series purchase

by RhodeIslandRoxfan on Nov 10, 2009 7:56 PM MST reply actions

I still resent the implication that Helton's contract is an albatross

It’s not as if we have a better 1B in the wings just waiting for him to retire or break a hip or something.

Let’s remember that Helton posted a .392 wOBA and while UZR doesn’t like his defense, his ability to turn errant assist attempts into putouts is second to nearly none in MLB.

In terms of DLR, I’m wary of a Ollie Perez contract, in that it might turn out to be….Ollie Perez performance. Problem is, if he posts another 4-to-sub-4 FIP this season, and a tRA like he just did, he’s gonna get a lot spendier a lot faster.

Hope got in my eyes

by Andrew Martin on Nov 10, 2009 10:19 PM MST up reply actions

Maybe not an albatross

but a significant hindrance. It’s not that his performance hasn’t been good. I think most people just see declining HR and RBI and assume he’s not useful anymore. It’s just not a good value anymore.

Really, it’s not anybody’s fault. When Helton’s healthy, he’s very good. And when the team offered the extension, power hitting first basemen were paid at a premium. I don’t know if it was predicable, but the market changed and the Rockies got burned by it.

Still, it would have been nice to have been able to move Atkins over and install Stewart at third in ’08 or try Koshansky out before losing him on waivers.

by deacs on Nov 10, 2009 11:45 PM MST up reply actions

Koshansky had a rough year in AAA this year

At 27 he might not be that good after all.

I wonder if Bud Selig will give the Yankees a receipt with their World Series purchase

by RhodeIslandRoxfan on Nov 10, 2009 11:56 PM MST up reply actions

Timing of promotion

One thing I’ve always wondered is how many AAAA players’ skills erode as they spend year after year without a callup? Older players like Garret Jones (28 at first significant MLB taste) or even Youkilis (25) are examples of players continuing to perform while being passed over. But how many players reach their third or fourth years in AAA and are just burned out?

That said, Koshansky undoubtedly suffered a bit from being away from Colorado Springs. Still, it would’ve been nice to see him get 200 ABs in a Rockies uniform after all the time he spent in the system.

by deacs on Nov 11, 2009 9:24 AM MST up reply actions

But at least Youkilis had peripherals that would indicate

that he’d have success. JoKo only hits bombs. In fact, at this point (assuming we don’t draft the next Mark Teixeira) I’d be down for potentially re-upping Helton after that contract runs out…..

"There are only two important things in life: baseball and breathing. But at least you can survive without breathing for 3 minutes."
www.soundclick.com/hollidayrain

by Hollidayrain on Nov 11, 2009 2:25 PM MST up reply actions

interesting query

and I can’t imagine there’s any reliable way to test it. Opportunity is the ulitimate variable.

by Teekalong on Nov 12, 2009 1:50 PM MST up reply actions

I'm sure some players stagnate, or give up

But there have been plenty who hit when they got their chance.

In the case of Koshansky the most likely stiuation is that he’s just not that good. His numbers look good on the surface, but for his age and Colorado Springs, they’re not that impressive. E.g., look at his 2008. K was 26, and hit about the same as Stewart, but Stewie was 23, and K K’d 30% of the time to Stewart’s 22%.

Leave Dexter alone! You're lucky he even performs for you!

by FooMan on Nov 14, 2009 12:13 AM MST up reply actions

Here we go

Look, I love Todd Helton. I love the way he represents the team, I Iove the way he fouls off a million pitches in an at bat, and I love the way he plays defense at first base. But for a team like the Rockies that contract is an albatross. The 16.6 million the Rockies had to pay Helton this year represented 22% of their entire payroll. (I belive only Barry Zito’s 23% is higher but i’d have to double check that) Now it would be one thing if Helton were an elite player at his position but he can no longer be considered that. Pujols, Fielder, A. Gonzalez, Lee, Votto, Youkilis, M. Cabrera, Howard, and your boy Teixeria are all better. In other words, your paying 16.6 million for a guy who does not really give you a major advantage at that positon.

Now if we gave Tulo a contract like that in a few years I would not have much of problem with it because he will be an elite player at his position for the next decade or so. (Ah that’s so much fun to think about)

I wonder if Bud Selig will give the Yankees a receipt with their World Series purchase

by RhodeIslandRoxfan on Nov 10, 2009 11:52 PM MST up reply actions

Todd's value

I could go on for pages on my thoughts of why Todd’s deal was a great one (not just “not a bad one”) but I think two words suffice:

WORLD SERIES.

Maybe we get there without Todd, I doubt it. But fortuantely we don’t have to speculate and can just enjoy the memories. I don’t care how many Joe Koshanskys and Ryan Shealys we “lose” along the way. The fall-through of that salary-dump Red Sox deal was the single best thing to ever happen to this franchise.

by Teekalong on Nov 12, 2009 1:58 PM MST up reply actions

Helton's deal looked bad, but so far hasn't hurt too much

It looked bad when it seemed like the Monfort’s were really going to hold down payroll, but they increased it enough the past few years to keep bringing along the GenR group. (I mean, they had the cash to pay Atkins $7M to stick around when Stewart was knocking on the door.)

His deal could make things a little tight in 2011, but if an extra $5-10M is needed for someone important that year and the Monforts can’t pony up, that sounds like it’s more their problem than Todd’s contract.

There’s plenty of time to see what’s up with Tulo, since they have him under control through 2014. He could very easily not be worth a huge extension by then…injuries, inability to play shortstop, etc.

Leave Dexter alone! You're lucky he even performs for you!

by FooMan on Nov 14, 2009 12:20 AM MST up reply actions

Yeah RMN, it is.

Not as much as it was before he performed better this year, but there’s no way that Helton approaches over-performing his 2010-2011 salary. Going forward (and for the last four or so years now) that contract has been an absolute albatross.

Eschew Obfuscation!

by Jeff Aberle on Nov 11, 2009 4:06 PM MST up reply actions

disagree strongly

Helton have the rockies $16.2mil in tangible value this season. Then add in the incalculable amount of value from defensive scoops, leadership, merchandise sales, leadership and he is more than giving back what he is getting, which is remarkable at his age.

I don’t think he has to outperform his contract the next two years, as he has outperformed the contract by well over $30mil already. While his paycheck is a large amount of the yearly payroll, I don’t think it has hindered the way they would do business otherwise. I don’t think that can really be proven either way though. And quite frankly, I don’t mind if he underperforms his salary next season. That’s how baseball contracts work. We made plenty of profit on him the last 12 years, and I’m happy he’s still around. Even if it is more efficient to have a lineup solely built on Seths and Troys, you need a guy like helton around to really stick together

"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein

by Andrew T. Fisher on Nov 11, 2009 7:17 PM MST via mobile up reply actions

I don't think tangible value is a good way to measure if you are getting a good bang for your buck (even if thats what it's trying to measure)

I went to fangraph and looked at the top first basemen (minimum 500 PA) and 26 players came up. Of those 26 players only three, Todd Helton, Adam Dunn, and Aubrey Huff had tangible values lower than what they were actually making. In addition to making me think that these tangible values are way too high, this means that even with Helton’s productive season his contract was still a worse value than all but two first basemen in all of MLB. (And that was with a productive season)

In addition every single Rockie hitter who had at least 100 PA and every single Rockies pitcher who threw at least 35 innings made less than their tangible value said they should. Everyone that is except Todd Helton. (I think those value numbers are way too high.)

As I mentioned in the post above, Helton is not an elite first baseman and the contract is an albotross because we are paying 16.6 million to a player who is only better than average at his position. If you don’t think it has hindered the way we do business I would ask you to look at the way we handled Matt Holliday. Why do you think the Rockies were discussing trading Helton to the Red Sox before the 07 season?

As far as Helton providing more value in the past and not minding if he underperforms his salary next season, I hate paying a player for what they did in the past. Doing that puts quite a bit of strain on a small or mid market team. The Rockies will have a whole lot more financhial flexibility once that contract is off the books.

I wonder if Bud Selig will give the Yankees a receipt with their World Series purchase

by RhodeIslandRoxfan on Nov 11, 2009 9:42 PM MST up reply actions

Well, you missed Atkins sucking...but yeah, I pretty much see it that way too.

Eschew Obfuscation!

by Jeff Aberle on Nov 11, 2009 9:46 PM MST up reply actions

I knew I must have forgot someone.

That’s what happens when I don’t double check

I wonder if Bud Selig will give the Yankees a receipt with their World Series purchase

by RhodeIslandRoxfan on Nov 11, 2009 9:54 PM MST up reply actions

i think youre missing my main point

For a franchise contract like helton’s, we ought to be surprised he is still returning at least as much value as we are paying him, eight years later. I understand not wanting to pay a player for his past, but that’s how baseball contracts are made. All of them are backloaded so they make the most when they are least productive. Most often, they outperform their contract to begin with but underperform at the end. Helton is still outperforming his contract. If you don’t like the longterm postarb contracts, you are forcing yourself into having a team full of washed up veterans and guys in their mid-twenties. I think a franchise guy like helton is worth being the one contract to deal with

For the record, you’re gravely understaying helton by saying he is “only better than average” IMO. He had nearly a .400 wOBA.

As for 07: heltons production had begun deteriorating due to crohns and the herniated disc. It makes sense to pay a player $16mil when his production returns the investment, but it didn’t appear it would going forward. Obviously, that has changed. As for holliday, they offered him a 4yr deal WITH helton, which would go until helton’s contract expired. Holliday’s beef was with the years, not the money, so helton really had no effect on what we offered holliday. In fact, we could have added a year or two, putting the backloaded years post-helton contract, thereby lowering what we paid holliday while helton was here. But we didn’t. There were options there. And since 2005, who else would we exactly have spend a lot of money on instead? This franchise hardly seems hamstrung to me

"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein

by Andrew T. Fisher on Nov 12, 2009 1:57 AM MST via mobile up reply actions

hey these points all sound very familiar I wonder why

Hope got in my eyes

by Andrew Martin on Nov 12, 2009 2:20 PM MST up reply actions

Okay, I admit I stole the some of the last paragraph from you

"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein

by Andrew T. Fisher on Nov 12, 2009 3:23 PM MST up reply actions

Measuring Helton's productivity throughtout the life of the contract is a good point

I’m not sure if I agree that he will outperform his contract but at least they will get a solid return on the investment and not end up with a Vernon Wells or Barry Zito situation. As you said Todd outperformed his contract in the begining and is underperforming it now. I guess I should clarify and say that I think the contract has become but has not always been an albatross.

I disagree when you say all contracts are backloaded so players make the most when they are least productive. Many big contracts like AJ Burnett’s, Carlos Beltran’s, Mark Teixeria’s, David Ortiz’s, CC Sabathia’s, Alfonso Soriano’s, and JD Drew’s are either flat or only fluctuate a tiny bit from start to finish. Manny Ramirez’s Boston contract went up in the begining and down at the end while ARods current contract actually drops toward the end.

When you say that I am gravely understating Helton by saying that he is only better than average I disagree. What I said was, Helton is “only better than average at his position” and I stand by that. Yeah Helton posted a .392 wOBA average but ten first baseman topped that mark this year. Check out the numbers.

http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=1b&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=y&type=1&season=2009&month=0

In 2007, Helton was even quoted saying “I know they want to get rid of my contract, I’m not going to get too upset about it.” I’m sure the herniated disc had something to do with it as well but a big reason why the Rockies tried to move Helton was because of the size of that contract.

You’re right about the Holliday stuff. My bad

I wonder if Bud Selig will give the Yankees a receipt with their World Series purchase

by RhodeIslandRoxfan on Nov 13, 2009 1:09 AM MST up reply actions

Also another thing to think about

is the fact that Helton’s defense is improperly quantified by UZR, and thereby WAR. (It should be noted that as late as last year, the Fielding Bible had Helton as a +6 fielder, and while he falls behind a lot of 1B in terms of strictly RZR, he is rated higher than Prince Fielder – lol -, Adam LaRoche, and Adrian Gonzalez – but not that far behind Teix and Pujols. In fact, Helton is #5 overall in a 3-year zone rating, per the Fielding Bible. In fact, Dewan has Helton as 8th from the top in terms of 1B by his own personal rankings) Helton’s ability to scoop errant throws fits in a very-difficult-to-replace kind of way with the organization’s strategy of groundball pitchers and strong infield defense – a lesser 1B in terms of picking the ball costs the team more runs overall.

The point of the above is simply to demonstrate that Helton, by position, is an above-average to good fielder, relative to his peers.

So here’s my thinking. Out of 1B in the league, to find one who can field the back end of a groundout as well as Helton, we’d have to go to someone like Casey Kotchman, who is an excellent defensive 1B. However, the drawback is that he posted a combined .317 wOBA this season, career .324. Doesn’t hold a candle to Helton. Reason I use Kotchman is that he’s available, more than likely. Reason I’m comparing them at all is that if we wanted to get a different 1B than Helton who may have a stronger bat and similar fielding, we’d have to be paying this imaginary player roughly what we’re already paying Helton, and we’d be losing the VETERAN LEADERSHIP OMG as well plus fan goodwill.

So for a guy who is an integral part of our infield defense as well as the face of the franchise and an average bat – relative to his peers, again – and has produced far above his contract in the past, I don’t see his contract as being that absurd. Look at it in a 1-year vacuum, and sure, it might look bad, but looking over the whole course of it, I don’t see it as that much of a hindrance.

Hope got in my eyes

by Andrew Martin on Nov 13, 2009 9:17 AM MST up reply actions

amen brother

excellently reasoned.

by Teekalong on Nov 13, 2009 12:49 PM MST up reply actions

Point taken...

Helton has outperformed his contract in terms of Fangraphs $$ by about $20 million, so he’s definitely got some leeway there.

You alluded to this, but my point is that the contract has severely reduced the Rockies’ payroll flexibility to the point that it tied up money from other places.

Eschew Obfuscation!

by Jeff Aberle on Nov 11, 2009 9:44 PM MST up reply actions

I agree about the 3/$36M

being way too much. Pitchers like Perez have previous reputation built into their contracts, and JDLR just doesn’t have the reputation or the “potential” hype that Oliver had. Just because he has similar numbers doesn’t mean he’ll be valued the same way. Hopefully teams don’t figure out that his underlying numbers are better than Oliver’s were.

by deacs on Nov 10, 2009 11:47 PM MST up reply actions

If the 3/36 is Jorge's agent's first stab

Then I can assure you he’s not expecting to get it. The Rox could come back with a 4/20 offer and maybe they’ll find common ground in the middle. I’m not convinced Jorge will have a better 2010, though, and I don’t have a problem with waiting.

by biondino on Nov 11, 2009 9:33 AM MST up reply actions

agreed

Wait it out. He ended 08 well and had a good (but not great) 09. The rest of his career, frankly, sucked. See if he really turned the corner in 2010.

Winners never quit, and quitters never win. But if you never quit *and* never win, you are an idiot

by squalene203 on Nov 11, 2009 2:30 PM MST up reply actions

I think if you wait, he's gone

Which may well be the thing to do. If he has another good season, he’ll be FA eligible (right?) and someone will throw some money at him. If he has a crappy season, well, would they still want him around?

Leave Dexter alone! You're lucky he even performs for you!

by FooMan on Nov 14, 2009 12:25 AM MST up reply actions