Saturday Rockpile: Rockies players young (refining their tools) and old (negotiating their pay) hard at work during the offseason

by Bryan Kilpatrick on Nov 14, 2009 8:27 AM MST in Rockpile

List of Rockies’ arbitration eligible players | All Things Rockies
Troy Renck of the Denver Post made a blog post that contains a list of the Rockies' arbitration eligible players - one of which is Jorge De La Rosa, who Dan O'Dowd says will likely not be offered a multi-year deal at this point. I think it's fitting that Ryan Spilborghs (accidentally or not) has a smiley face wearing sunglasses next to his name.

Rockies Venezulean League Updates
Carlos Gonzalez has posted two straight "0-fers" to begin his VZL season. He struck out twice against White Sox pitcher Lance Broadway in his first game. Still, I think he'll be alright. A couple of nights ago, Jhoulys Chacin had a decent outing - at least according to Chino Carvajal (the guy who runs the blog). He got knocked around a tad, giving up 2 runs on 7 hits in 4 innings, but supposedly displayed good control during the 65-pitch appearance. Last but not least, Franklin Morales continues to stretch himself out in an effort to get ready for his first start, which will come on December 1st. Let's just hope we don't see any tired arms when next season rolls around...

Arizona Fall League Blog - ESPN (INSIDER ONLY)
Jason Grey posted a recap on each of the middle infielders that participated in the Arizona Fall League. Here's what he had to say about Rockies' shortstop prospect Hector Gomez:

Gomez is a live body with a wiry frame who possesses bat speed and can run, field with a rocket arm, and hit for some pull power. The problem with Gomez is not one of tools but of approach. Gomez likes to hit early and often in the count, and posted just a .310 OBP this year due to a lack of patience after missing most of 2008 due to injuries. He's a fastball hitter who is always looking dead red, and he has a tendency to get himself out by chasing the pitcher's pitch. His swing has been a little bit shorter here at the AFL and he's started to go the other way a bit more, so at just 21 years of age, he's still well worth watching.

No sure deal for Betancourt - The Denver Post
As mentioned in the FanShot below, Rafael Betancourt's option was declined by the Rockies yesterday. Also as mentioned in the comments, I think of this as a complete no-lose situation for the Rockies. They either work out a different deal with him, or offer him arbitration and assuming he declines, they'll get two additional picks in the first two rounds of the draft if he signs with another team. Also mentioned in the piece is that in addition to working on resigning Betancourt, the Rox are exploring bringing back Joe Beimel and Jose Contreras.

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Betancourt accepts arbitration because the type status kills his value on the market and we end up paying him over 6 million.

by mkorpal on Nov 14, 2009 8:39 AM MST reply actions

He may, but I still don't consider that an awful situation, either

…under the disclaimer that he performs at or near his 2009 level.

Just an average guy with exceptional hair. Nothing more, nothing less.

by Bryan Kilpatrick on Nov 14, 2009 9:11 AM MST up reply actions

he made 3.35 mil last year

would his arb rate really double? i think worst case is he would get about that 5.4 mil option. you cant pass on those draft picks.

i would also offer beimel and marquis arb if i was running things.

by purplesocks on Nov 14, 2009 10:15 AM MST up reply actions

The average arb raise in 2009 was 172%...so yes, it could.

Relief pitchers, especially those that are Betancourt’s age, are probably less likely to receive a hefty raise through arbitration. My point as I articulated it in my article is that if the Rockies offer him arbitration, his Type A status makes him a mortal lock to accept it. Betancourt will be like Kryptonite on the free agent market because there are very few teams who will give up a first round pick for a 35 year old set up man.

Eschew Obfuscation!

by Jeff Aberle on Nov 14, 2009 10:24 AM MST up reply actions

The average arb raise

is massively inflated by first year arb eligible players that get a bump up from the 400k league minimum though. I think the thing to do would be look at comps from the last couple years. Players that were setup guys but also type A. Cruz etc. I think there’s no way he gets that much in arbitration.

by Hizilla on Nov 14, 2009 11:13 AM MST up reply actions

Just to expand

Top comps for Betancourt:
Scot Shields – 5Mil
Darren Olliver – 3.6Mil
Juan Cruz – 2.25Mil
Kyle Farnsworth – 4.25Mil
Damaso Marte – 3.75Mil
JC Romero – 4Mil
Ryan Madsen – 2Mil (4.5 in 2010)

Anyway, you get the picture. There are very few non-closer RP’s making more than 5Mil. If Betancourt went into arbitration and asked for 6Mil I don’t see how he gets it.

by Hizilla on Nov 14, 2009 12:03 PM MST up reply actions

Also

Ringolsby thinks its very likely that the team offers him arbitration.

Some interesting stuff on Yorvit in there too.

by Hizilla on Nov 14, 2009 12:05 PM MST up reply actions

i absolutely agree with this analysis

I would be a big mistake to make a decision based on a data set in which a majority don’t relate to betancourt’s case at all

"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein

by Andrew T. Fisher on Nov 14, 2009 12:38 PM MST via mobile up reply actions

OT

Just in case you were wondering the winnar (loser) was Dunn.

by Hizilla on Nov 14, 2009 1:21 PM MST up reply actions

that makes sense

I didn’t read the article closely enough to notice the difficulty of position adjustment

"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein

by Andrew T. Fisher on Nov 14, 2009 1:57 PM MST via mobile up reply actions

yay i was right

Hope got in my eyes

by Andrew Martin on Nov 14, 2009 3:30 PM MST up reply actions

Oh, I agree too. But there is precedent.

In 2007 two veteran pitchers (Darren Oliver and David Weathers) accepted arbitration. Neither were Type A or as effective, but they are close.

Oliver went from 1.5 million to 2 million, while Weathers went up from 2.25 to 3.3 million. Those are 33% and 47% raises respectively. Given that Betancourt is better than both of them and a little younger (35 compared to 37), he’ll get a slightly higher raise, in the 50-60% range.

Betancourt was making $3.5 million in 2009—which means that I’m estimating an increase of 1.9 million (or 55%) to $5.4 million—in other words, the option the Rockies just declined. Who knows though…arbitrators work in myserious ways.

Eschew Obfuscation!

by Jeff Aberle on Nov 15, 2009 3:52 PM MST up reply actions

Offering Marquis arbitration seems pretty likely, as he'd be a fool to accept it.

It’s a very weak FA starting pitching market, and Marquis should easily secure a 2 year deal with somebody.

by Greg Stanwood on Nov 14, 2009 12:04 PM MST up reply actions

Beimel?

by Hizilla on Nov 14, 2009 12:06 PM MST up reply actions

I'm leaning no on that one, but I'm honestly not sure.

They clearly don’t consider him a priority, and risking paying him more than he’d sign for without the offer doesn’t seem favorable for them. However, they also may choose to go for it if other circumstances prevent them from offering arb to others. That’s just my interpretation of the situation, there also may be other factors at work I’m not considering.

by Greg Stanwood on Nov 14, 2009 12:10 PM MST up reply actions

I guess I see him as low risk

He doesn’t have the type A hindering a team from signing him like some other guys, and is probably looking for a multi year deal. I haven’t seen anyone speculate on him anywhere, so I would imagine they won’t – as you say he seems like he’s a low priority for the team.

by Hizilla on Nov 14, 2009 12:16 PM MST up reply actions

I'm not sure if Beimel can actually get a multi-year deal.

Though I suppose it’s possible. I guess my point is that of Marquis, Betancourt, and Beimel, he’s the most likely to accept, and the least valuable if he does.

by Greg Stanwood on Nov 14, 2009 12:21 PM MST up reply actions

but his arb will be the least of all three as well

i don’t see beimal being the least likely to accept. i just get the sense that he wants to go somewhere else and the fact that hes a type B and if he did accept it would be the smallest arb case makes him the least risky in my mind.

by purplesocks on Nov 14, 2009 2:10 PM MST up reply actions

"i don’t see beimal being the least likely to accept."

How? He’s the only one of the three that isn’t a prize pig on the market. In a normal year, Marquis wouldn’t be, but this year there’s Lackey, Wolf… then what? Marquis is in line to get snagged for a multiyear contract easy, as is Betancourt. Beimel will have to look harder for a job.

Point is, I can pretty much guarantee that Marquis and Betancourt would turn down an arbitration offer without a bat of an eye. Beimel would have to think about it.

by Greg Stanwood on Nov 14, 2009 2:17 PM MST up reply actions

I disagree with you on Betancourt...

he’s not likely to garner a multi-year or even single year deal that approaches what he’d get in arbitration due to his Type A status.

Eschew Obfuscation!

by Jeff Aberle on Nov 15, 2009 3:54 PM MST up reply actions

How does that affect the terms of his hypothetical deal?

Sure, it makes teams hesitant to sign him due to losing the draft pick, but signing a Type A with an arbitration offer to a two year deal or to a cheap one year deal warrants the same effect.

If a team signs him cheaper than arbitration, or signs him for multiple years seems irrelevant to me. It only helps our chances of re-signing him, so far as I can see.

by Greg Stanwood on Nov 15, 2009 7:39 PM MST up reply actions

See the Juan Cruz effect last year.

that nearly prevented him from being signed even though he was a good set up man with really high K rates (though his command wasn’t great)

Impossible not to have positive thoughts.

I want Sam Deduno to pitch already.

by bballrox4717 on Nov 15, 2009 10:07 PM MST up reply actions

If Betancourt doesn't believe that he can sign elsewhere for a comparable salary...

it makes him a lot more likely to accept arbitration and cost the Rockies upwards of $5 million.

Eschew Obfuscation!

by Jeff Aberle on Nov 16, 2009 10:16 AM MST up reply actions

The Rockies are definitely not going to offer arbitration to Beimel

and have indicated that they are probably going to go with Flores/Morales as the LHP out of the bullpen next season. If Beimel wants to sign at a considerable discount from what he made last season, the Rockies would probably consider it, but that’s not likely from his end and wouldn’t involve going through the arbitration procedure at all.

by Rox Girl on Nov 14, 2009 3:42 PM MST up reply actions

Russ,

Why all the gray? Please bring back the purple ..ok?

by butterfly on Nov 14, 2009 10:18 AM MST reply actions

eww, yes not liking the gray.

140+ long days till we meet again...

by prettyinpurple on Nov 14, 2009 5:12 PM MST up reply actions

The Rockies brought their final four players off of the disabled list yesterday.

We have 33 spots to work with in terms of protecting players from the Rule 5 Draft.

by Greg Stanwood on Nov 14, 2009 10:49 AM MST reply actions

I should say, 33 spots filled, 7 free.

by Greg Stanwood on Nov 14, 2009 10:50 AM MST up reply actions

Do you know

which of the prospects will need to be protected this year?

by Hizilla on Nov 14, 2009 12:05 PM MST up reply actions

Those on the Purps list that need protection (that already aren't) are McKenry, Reynolds, Roe, and Escalona.

Rox Girl also mentioned that our Jeff Baker trade product Alberto Alburquerque needs protection as well. Those seem to be the most important five.

by Greg Stanwood on Nov 14, 2009 12:07 PM MST up reply actions

I meant Garner, not Reynolds.

by Greg Stanwood on Nov 14, 2009 12:11 PM MST up reply actions

Interesting.

I wonder if they’ll actually take someone in the draft this year. It could be tight, depending on what they do with the backup catcher situation.
7 Spots
+5 Purps
-1 Atkins
+1 Betancourt/Bullpen Guy
+1 Backup Catcher
+1 Replacement Quintanilla
+1 Replacement Atkins/CI
_
Not Enough Roster Spots

Depending on which of those spots the promote internally and the Brad Hawpe situation. Looks like it could be tough to bring in a FA starter as well, unless it’s on a minor league deal.

by Hizilla on Nov 14, 2009 12:14 PM MST up reply actions

Our replacement Quintanilla may be Eric Young Jr.

There is also no guarantee we protect all five of them. McKenry and Roe are probably guarantees, with the other three being just “likely”. They may choose to leave one off.

Our backup catcher may actually end up being McKenry, though right now it seems more likely they’ll sign a free agent for April and May, then think about making a switch to McKenry mid season. The only real addition I think we’ll be seeing for sure (besides Betancourt/replacement) is a new corner infielder, which I think is likely to come from a pot of NRIs.

One interesting thing to try would be a Rule 5 corner infielder for the bench. Not saying there’s any chance they’d actually do that; the Rockies very rarely do any Rule 5 drafting. Just me throwing a random idea out there.

by Greg Stanwood on Nov 14, 2009 12:19 PM MST up reply actions