NL West in Review: Shortstops

by Andrew T. Fisher on Nov 16, 2009 12:00 PM MST in NL West Report Comment 40 comments

This is about as suspenseful as a modern day cookie-cutter horror flick. Not even our pudgy four-letter Philly fan can deny the proper anointment of the NL West's top shortstop in 2009. However, it wasn't quite so clear just last March.

Coming off of a miserable 0.8 WAR season in 2008 (at the same level as Brian Barton and Carlos Gonzalez), Troy Tulowitzki silenced all critics in 2009, giving the Rockies a clear advantage over every team in the West. In fact, the 6.85 WAR that Tulo, Barmes and Quintanilla generated represent the strongest infield position of any team in the division.

Even considering Tulo's down year, the preseason projections had the Rockies as clear favorites in the NL West, with Los Angeles, Arizona, San Francisco and San Diego following in order. Colorado delivered in a big way, representing the division's sole above average offensive unit. Everth Cabrera's surprising rookie season ruined what would have otherwise been an accurate ranking:


Teams	Players	Avg	HR	RBI	OBP	SLG	wOBA*	WAR
1. Colorado	3	.298	32	96	.377	.536	.387	6.85
2. Los Angeles	4	.271	9	54	.330	.371	.321	3.64
3. Arizona	3	.265	12	73	.332	.417	.326	2.49
4. San Diego	4	.231	4	43	.319	.328	.304	1.98
5. San Francisco	4	.255	11	72	.306	.353	.296	0.74

Shortstop was the most stable position among divisional infield positions, as all five teams had clear full-time starters from start to finish. With the positional RAR set at +7.5, here is the graphical RAR representation:

For the full rankings and team rundowns, turn the corner.

Seventeen different men manned shortstop, including Josh Wilson twice (for San Diego and Arizona), and all but five were above replacement level:

Rank	Player	Team	PA	Avg	HR	RBI	OBP	SLG	wOBA*	UZR	WAR
1	Troy Tulowitzki	COL	628	.296	32	92	.377	.551	.362	-1.2	5.07
2	Rafael Furcal	LAD	671	.266	8	45	.331	.368	.321	8.0	3.24
3	Stephen Drew	AZ	586	.262	12	65	.320	.432	.334	3.4	3.00
4	Everth Cabrera	SDP	437	.255	2	31	.343	.362	.335	-11.7	0.84
5	Augie Ojeda	AZ	116	.289	0	6	.381	.371	.331	3.2	0.83
~	~	~	~	~	~	~	~	~	~	~	~
14	Blake DeWitt	LAD	5	.000	0	0	.200	.000	.141	-0.4	-0.08
15	Luis Rodriguez	SDP	119	.196	1	6	.314	.268	.272	-1.8	-0.12
16	Kevin Frandsen	SFG	20	.056	0	0	.150	.056	.119	-0.2	-0.21
17	Chris Burke	SDP	76	.214	1	5	.276	.314	.268	-2.6	-0.23
18	Josh Wilson	SDP	42	.108	0	1	.195	.162	.141	-2.0	-0.55

For a the full spreadsheet of the players rankings, team rankings and raw data, check this Google Docs link.

Arizona

2009 in Review

After a spectacular second half the previous season, the bright young shortstop took a huge nosedive with the bat this season, falling from a near elite shortstop to a below average league bat. Sound familiar? Augie Ojeda also performed well in 116 PA to usurp Renteria for the fifth most valuable shortstop in the division, just a tenth of a run behind Everth Cabrera for fourth.

2010 in Preview

Diamondbacks fans are hoping for a Tulowitzki-like bounce-back year in 2010 from Drew. Arizona's 2004 first-round pick made $1.5mil last season and is up for arbitration.

Colorado

2009 in Review

Remember in May back when even Rowbots were drawing parallels between Tulo and Khalil Greene/Bobby Crosby? I hardly do myself. Four months later, Tulo finished the season as MLB's third-most valuable shortstop. For some reason, UZR pegs Tulo as a below average MLB shortstop, which is clearly fishy. That plus April/May make his season's ranking all the more incredible. Clint Barmes was solid in in 49 PA, enough to finish seventh in the NL West despite no home runs and four RBIs.

2010 in Preview

Troy Tulowitzki made a paltry $1million in 2009, the second year of a six year contract. He is guaranteed $3.5million next year, but hopefully, he'll cash in with more. He'll pocket $25k each for a Gold Glove and All-Star appearance and $50k with a Silver Slugger.

Los Angeles

2009 in Review

Rafael Furcal was borderline MVP caliber to start 2008, but after an early summer injury, he never really recovered. 2009 started poorly as well, as Furcal hit below .250 for almost the entire first half. The former Brave was saved by an 8.0 UZR - quite strange in that he was average or below average every year of his career up to 2009, and only Elvis Andrus was more valuable defensively. I'm not sure I buy that. Chin-Ling Hu, Blake DeWitt and Juan Castro washed out to about replacement level.

2010 in Preview

Furcal was a below average bat last season, not what Los Angeles was hoping for after signing him to a 3-year $30mil deal before the season. He'll be making $8.5million next season, a value he has reached four of the last five years (Fangraphs). Still at 32, he could certainly regress.

San Diego

2009 in Review

Everth Cabrera was the full-time starter for the Padres at shortstop minus two months he missed with a fractured bone in his hand. The Rule 5 pick impressed greatly with his bat after jumping from A-ball, with a park-adjusted .335 wOBA, comfortably above league average. However, he struggled greatly defensively, as the Rockies saw first hand. His UZR was worst in the division and fourth worst in MLB. Luis Rodriguez was essentially the worst shortstop in the division who got any real number of ABs, but Chris Burke and the San Diego version of Josh Wilson join him as three of the five below replacement level contributors.

2010 in Preview

After an impressive rookie year, Bud Black will be writing Cabrera's name in his line-up card with great regularity. Everth should get a slight bump from the league minimum in 2010, but it won't be much.

San Francisco

2009 in Review

Edgar Renteria's best days appear to be behind him. The 34-year old Colombian was less than half as productive as his prior career-worst season. His .288 wOBA is just pathetic - even Garrett Atkins was better, and he wasn't a defensive asset either. Juan Uribe was solid as a backup, with Ryan Rohlinger and Kevin Frandsen also got some reps.

2010 in Preview

Edgar Renteria was one of the first signings last offseason, before the market crashed. Consequently, his contract looks silly now, as he just finished the first year of a two year $18million contract. Nine million of that will come in 2010, with an obvious $500k buyout to be exercised next offseason. The option year in 2010 is for $10.5million. If Renteria falters there more, the Giants could do a lot worse than using Juan Uribe there.

0 recs | Comment 40 comments | Share

Story-email Email Printer Print

Comments

Looks like Tulo was the only guy who was positive with the bat

And, um, he was pretty positive.

by controlled_slide on Nov 16, 2009 12:17 PM MST reply actions 0 recs

also everth cabrera

Hope got in my eyes

by Andrew Martin on Nov 16, 2009 12:40 PM MST up reply actions 0 recs

I actually think I meant that the Rockies were the only team

Although looking at the raw player data, Tulo was almost the only player, and the only full-time player other than Cabrera, that was positive.

by controlled_slide on Nov 16, 2009 1:32 PM MST up reply actions 0 recs

Oop, and Stephen Drew

by controlled_slide on Nov 16, 2009 1:34 PM MST up reply actions 0 recs

I think this shows one of the reasons why Tulo is so valuable

Tulo being the only really good bad a shortstop is not just an NL west thing. Only four shortstops in all of baseball had a wOBA higher than .360 (H. Ramirez, Jeter, Jason Bartlett, and Tulo). So when you have a shortstop who has a .393 wOBA and combine it with his outstanding defense (I don’t care what UZR says) it gives you a huge, huge, huge advantage over the competition.

I wonder if Bud Selig will give the Yankees a receipt with their World Series purchase

by RhodeIslandRoxfan on Nov 16, 2009 2:57 PM MST up reply actions 0 recs

Hm, PF's table shows Tulo's wOBA as .362

I’m guessing that’s a misprint. Fangraphs has him at .393 like you said. Also, I don’t care what UZR says either

by controlled_slide on Nov 16, 2009 3:02 PM MST up reply actions 0 recs

Could his WAR be even higher?

Fangraph has it at 5.4 but I know it uses a slightly different way of calculating WAR

I wonder if Bud Selig will give the Yankees a receipt with their World Series purchase

by RhodeIslandRoxfan on Nov 16, 2009 3:11 PM MST up reply actions 0 recs

Probably not

I’m thinking that the .362 number is a misprint, but that there were no calculations based upon that number

by controlled_slide on Nov 16, 2009 3:17 PM MST up reply actions 0 recs

That should be .389

I’m not sure where the .363 came from, but you’re right – its a data transfer error and doesn’t affect calculations. Also note, his wOBA dropped a whole FOUR POINTS due to playing at coors field

"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein

by Andrew T. Fisher on Nov 16, 2009 4:04 PM MST via mobile up reply actions 0 recs

ALERT THE NATIONAL MEDIA

THEY NEEDS TO KNOW ABOUT THIS UNFAIR ADVANTAGE TULO HAS CALLED COORS FIELD

I wonder if Bud Selig will give the Yankees a receipt with their World Series purchase

by RhodeIslandRoxfan on Nov 16, 2009 4:09 PM MST up reply actions 0 recs

hangon, what?

He had a .997 OPS at home, and .859 on the road. I know that’s not a direct translation into wOBA (but fangraphs doesn’t have home/road splits :shakes fist: ), but that’s a pretty un-ignorable split.

Unless I’ve completely misread you.

Hope got in my eyes

by Andrew Martin on Nov 16, 2009 4:16 PM MST up reply actions 0 recs

yeah, i didnt take splits into account

Just applied a general average park factor to all stats. Granted, that isn’t perfect at all, but it would be too much work to use positional AND home/road splits, even if they existed. Perhaps this speaks to the reverse coors effect on the road?

"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein

by Andrew T. Fisher on Nov 16, 2009 4:38 PM MST via mobile up reply actions 0 recs

well there's a balance

Both effects legitimately exist, both in inflating a batter’s Coors splits, while simultaneously nerfing their first road series after a long home stand. It’s well documented.

Hope got in my eyes

by Andrew Martin on Nov 16, 2009 4:44 PM MST up reply actions 0 recs

+1 for the use of nerfing

I was surprised my calculated value for wOBA was onle four points below what fangraphs had. Still, I have him a good third of a WAR lower as well, so its prob adjusted enough

"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein

by Andrew T. Fisher on Nov 16, 2009 4:54 PM MST via mobile up reply actions 0 recs

+3 for the use of nerfing? :-)

I wonder if Bud Selig will give the Yankees a receipt with their World Series purchase

by RhodeIslandRoxfan on Nov 16, 2009 5:01 PM MST up reply actions 0 recs

i blame Wyoming

"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein

by Andrew T. Fisher on Nov 16, 2009 5:03 PM MST via mobile up reply actions 0 recs

after more thought,

Yeah, this doesn’t take splits into account at all. It just attempts to say “these raw stats would equal this had Player A played all games in a completely neutral park”

"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein

by Andrew T. Fisher on Nov 16, 2009 4:43 PM MST via mobile up reply actions 0 recs

One thing that I think might have helped caused those splits was the Rockies unbalanced home/road schedule

The Rockies played 37 of their first 60 games on the road this year which means an unproportionatly large number of Tulo’s plate appearances with his meesed up batting stance came on the road. Likewise with the Rockies final 102 games including 58 at home and only 44 on the road, an unproportionatly large number of plate appearances from Tulo’s good batting stance (or post batting stance change) came at home.

I wonder if Bud Selig will give the Yankees a receipt with their World Series purchase

by RhodeIslandRoxfan on Nov 16, 2009 5:09 PM MST up reply actions 0 recs

What exactly

Is UZR? I haven’t seen this stat before….

by Maria M on Nov 16, 2009 2:50 PM MST reply actions 0 recs

Ultimate Zone Rating

It’s a measure of defensive ability. It’s somewhat suspect now, as are most defensive metrics, but it gives a rough approximation of defensive value in terms of runs prevented versus an average defensive player.

Welcome to the Row by the way. Haven’t seen you around before.

by controlled_slide on Nov 16, 2009 2:57 PM MST up reply actions 0 recs

I guess

I don’t understand much about defensive metrics….what stats does this rating use to create this…and why is tulo’s so low when he is obviously a very good defensive player?

the time between the season ending and spring training makes me feel dead inside.

by Maria M on Nov 16, 2009 5:31 PM MST up reply actions 0 recs

I don't know a good way to explain it easily

So I’ll refer you to the primers for it at the Baseball Think Factory

Primer 1

Primer 2

by Hizilla on Nov 16, 2009 9:56 PM MST up reply actions 0 recs

thank you

for those primers…I understand the rating better..but it seems like a very flawed system of analyzing data…

the time between the season ending and spring training makes me feel dead inside.

by Maria M on Nov 17, 2009 9:29 AM MST up reply actions 0 recs

Yeah, most defensive metrics are in their infancy

They’re working on getting batted ball tracking, like the pitch tracking that is on Gameday, etc. They would then be able to see how each batted ball travels, and the distance that a defensive player had to cover to convert an out. Eventually they will be able to get more robust, reliable defensive metrics. But, until then, as long as they still consider Troy Tulowitzki a below-average defensive shortstop, they should be taken with a grain of salt. Or at least compared to several other stats to get a broader picture.

by controlled_slide on Nov 17, 2009 9:47 AM MST up reply actions 0 recs

the single biggest problem with any defensive metric

is that there simply will never be enough defensive chances for a player to get an accurate sample in any given year, and so much can happen to a player’s ability over the time it takes to get that accurate sample that you never get anything more than a very hazy picture. I wish they would put up the margin of error with UZR so people can understand how far off these numbers could be, but that hasn’t happened yet. It’s a blunt instrument that too often in analysis gets used as a precision one.

by Rox Girl on Nov 17, 2009 12:18 PM MST up reply actions 0 recs

well put

Hope got in my eyes

by Andrew Martin on Nov 17, 2009 2:07 PM MST up reply actions 0 recs

I agree

When I was reading the Primers that Hizilla posted…I was shocked by the error rate…speaking from my background in web analytics anything with that high of an error rate can’t be used for any real analysis.

the time between the season ending and spring training makes me feel dead inside.

by Maria M on Nov 17, 2009 3:29 PM MST up reply actions 0 recs

Looks like shortstop may have been the single biggest reason why we beat the Giants for the Wild Card this year.

I wonder if Bud Selig will give the Yankees a receipt with their World Series purchase

by RhodeIslandRoxfan on Nov 16, 2009 3:00 PM MST reply actions 0 recs

By shortstop you mean Tulo

Some of the MSM attributed the Rockies turnaround to Tulo getting hot, rather than Tracy taking over.

by Hizilla on Nov 16, 2009 9:57 PM MST up reply actions 0 recs

Barmes was solid in his short time there too

Worth about half a win, 7th

"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein

by Andrew T. Fisher on Nov 16, 2009 10:36 PM MST up reply actions 0 recs

He was hitting well in those games

(which must have been when I was on the boat, because I do not remember that at all). But he is bolstered by .3 out of his D alone. I know he is a good defender but extrapolate that over a full season and it translates to alot better D than Barmes truly is. I still kind of have a problem with using UZR as a component of WAR in small sample sizes. Somebody had a comment in the Fangraphs article about Dunn that really struck home for me. Sure Dunn had the worst UZR for 2007-2009; but alot of that was his 2009 where he split time between 3 different positions and thus had 3 separate small data sets (that were all well shy of one whole season) that made up his total runs (runs against) from fielding. Same thing with Zobrist, he had lots of small datasets that gave him those 27 Fielding Runs.
I guess what I am getting at is that it bugs me to look at WAR as a ranking tool when the Fielding portion of that WAR is probably not a large enough sample size to have statistical significance. Weather that sample size is 50 PA at one position during the season or. 200PA at 3 different positions added together (I don’t think that it should really work that way).

by Hizilla on Nov 16, 2009 10:58 PM MST up reply actions 0 recs

see: Zobrist, Ben

Hope got in my eyes

by Andrew Martin on Nov 16, 2009 11:07 PM MST up reply actions 0 recs

Yes

I actually mentioned Zobrist, Ben; believe it or not.

by Hizilla on Nov 16, 2009 11:46 PM MST up reply actions 0 recs

yeah I know

it just needs to be reiterated how much his value was inflated – I love how hard he worked this season, but he’s like the prime example.

These points need to be nailed in.

Hope got in my eyes

by Andrew Martin on Nov 17, 2009 8:40 AM MST up reply actions 0 recs

In his defense

He was still had an unbelievable season at the plate, for a guy with his history. And his name starts with a Z.

by Hizilla on Nov 17, 2009 1:10 PM MST up reply actions 0 recs

The simple fact that UZR thinks Tulowitzki played below average defense in 2009 shows that there is something wrong with it.

I wonder if Bud Selig will give the Yankees a receipt with their World Series purchase

by RhodeIslandRoxfan on Nov 16, 2009 3:04 PM MST reply actions 0 recs

The Rockies are smart to include a $25,000 incentive if Tulo wins a Gold Glove because as long as the BBWA run that show they know they won't have to pay it.

I wonder if Bud Selig will give the Yankees a receipt with their World Series purchase

by RhodeIslandRoxfan on Nov 16, 2009 3:09 PM MST reply actions 0 recs

well considering that managers vote on gold gloves...

Hope got in my eyes

by Andrew Martin on Nov 16, 2009 3:35 PM MST up reply actions 0 recs

Oh yeah

I forgot managers and coaches vote on that one. There’s so many awards I lose track sometimes.

I wonder if Bud Selig will give the Yankees a receipt with their World Series purchase

by RhodeIslandRoxfan on Nov 16, 2009 4:19 PM MST up reply actions 0 recs

I wonder if the Rockies could use that to their negotiating advantage...

tell the agent, “and if your client wins an MVP award, we’ll give him a bonus of ….1 BILLION DOLLARS!!!!!!”

and the Monforts could relax knowing it would never happen., due to ignorance of the Mountain Time zone and east-coast bias (not to mention the ESPN feud.)

BTW, I know that this couldn’t happen due to rules about the relative size of incentive clauses.

Ignorance of the American League is a sign of good moral character.
Look out Dodgers...Purple objects in mirror are closer than they appear.

I'll be the guy in a orange shirt EVERY Monday...Broncos are my team win or lose.

by RdRnnr on Nov 16, 2009 5:07 PM MST up reply actions 0 recs