Wednesday Rockpile: Jim Tracy's NL Manager of Year fate to be resolved today, no word on when his contract status with Rockies will be

by Rox Girl on Nov 18, 2009 8:47 AM MST in Rockpile Comment 48 comments

Colorado Rockies manager Clint Hurdle, right, talks with bench coach Jim Tracy while facing the Florida Marlins in the seventh inning of the Marlins' 3-1 victory in a baseball game in Denver on Saturday, May 9, 2009. (AP Photo/David Zalubowski)

More photos » David Zalubowski - AP

9 months ago: Colorado Rockies manager Clint Hurdle, right, talks with bench coach Jim Tracy while facing the Florida Marlins in the seventh inning of the Marlins' 3-1 victory in a baseball game in Denver on Saturday, May 9, 2009. (AP Photo/David Zalubowski)

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Jim Tracy is the favorite to win the NL manager of the year award today, so says MLB.com and the Denver Post among other places and despite some argument for other candidates such as Joe Torre, it will be an upset if the voting is even close.

Patrick Saunders writes about Tracy here. At times, I actually try and avoid reading articles like this because my skeptic's mind always wonders what's being left unsaid about the person that's not getting mentioned, and I know a lot of Purple Row readers do this too given our catcher debates, for instance. But today I'd be careful not to do that "as compared to..." exercise, as it could get us in trouble and my guess is that we'd be incorrect and reading too much into the article. Of course, for some of you that don't have that hitch in your brain that I do, I've now put the thought in your mind and you'll do it anyway, so sorry about that.

*****

A week or two ago I suggested that the Diamondbacks seemed to be angling to cut salary for 2010, which very well may have been my well notated anti-Snake bias talking because their front office in recent days has made it clear that the team will raise the opening day payroll to around $75 million from the $73.5 million level it was at the start of 2009. After the salaries of departing players are taken into account, the Arizona front office suggests that it will have $10 million or more to spend. CEO Derrick Hall and others have been indicating that the team will look for at least one free agent starter, a late inning reliever, and the same kind of right handed corner infielder that the Rockies are targeting. They have hinted that there may be more money available, which would almost certainly come from trading catcher Chris Snyder and his $4.75 million 2010 obligation, as I don't believe any of their other contracts are movable (either because Arizona wants to keep the player, or because it's Eric Byrnes).

Trying to assess where the D-backs will end up after 2010 is a little tricky, and let me lay out why:

We know an opening day 2009 to opening day 2010 comparison will probably reveal less on paper talent in the coming season as Doug Davis, John Garland and Felipe Lopez are going to have their roster spots replaced by lesser parts.

Not only that, projections for several important players like Chris Young, Stephen Drew and Conor Jackson will take large dips from what they were prior to the 2009 season because this past year was so disappointing. CHONE is projecting a lineup of Miguel Montero, Brandon Allen, Tony Abreu, Mark Reynolds, Drew, Jackson, Young and Justin Upton to be an aggregate -16/R150, meaning the team's lineup is already projected to be worse than San Francisco's next year, and that's before the Giants add anything.

However, the Diamondbacks two big health return wild cards, Brandon Webb and Conor Jackson, are substantial.

Chris Young and Stephen Drew are likely what they appear to be at this point in their careers, but until non-star players actually turn 30, I'm generally hesitant to write their chances of putting up elite, All-Star worthy seasons off completely, particularly those with the kind of talent hype that these two had at one point and the glimpses of that talent that they have shown in the past. As a fan of an opponent, the nightmare scenario is picturing what surprise career years by several of these D-back players at once would look like. Given the team's youth, it's not as unlikely a scenario as I would want.

I guess in all, I still think the Rockies and Dodgers finish ahead of Arizona, but they're not a typical fifth place team, and I admit that I'm still paying attention to what they do in the off season more as it pertains to 2010 than to future seasons as I am say with the Padres. They do worry me, and I won't really be satisfied on this until there's an out of contention x next to their team in the standings.

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Comments

Clint Hurdle

doesn’t have a “white-hot competitive fire?” That’s what you’re telling us to avoid, right?

And if you didn’t love Zack Greinke yet or haven’t loved him enough, read this. Greinke must be living in his mother’s basement.

NEVER SURRENDER DREAMS

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by Russ Oates on Nov 18, 2009 8:56 AM MST reply actions 0 recs

don't, not didn't.

NEVER SURRENDER DREAMS

Purple Row - Covering all your Rockies needs!

by Russ Oates on Nov 18, 2009 9:01 AM MST up reply actions 0 recs

Numbers nerd

All he talks about is metrics, let’s see him go out there and actually play ball for once.

by Muzia on Nov 18, 2009 9:08 AM MST up reply actions 0 recs

SOUNDS like he has absolutely zero interest

In being a star for the Yankees

"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein

by Andrew T. Fisher on Nov 18, 2009 9:19 AM MST via mobile up reply actions 0 recs

Am I crazy

or didn’t Sauders use the “white hot competitive fire” line about CDI just last week? Man, we’ve got a surplus.

by Teekalong on Nov 18, 2009 11:28 AM MST up reply actions 0 recs

I thought the same thing

WHITE HOT FIRE EVERYWHERE

Hope got in my eyes

by Andrew Martin on Nov 18, 2009 11:30 AM MST up reply actions 0 recs

But the real question

is, have you played World of Warcraft and interacted with Zack Greinke?

NEVER SURRENDER DREAMS

Purple Row - Covering all your Rockies needs!

by Russ Oates on Nov 18, 2009 2:03 PM MST up reply actions 0 recs

Am I reading this right

my skeptic’s mind always wonders what’s being left unsaid about the person that’s not getting mentioned

Is this sentence fragment I’ve pasted saying “I wonder what’s being held back about the person the article is about, what the author knows that he’s not sharing” or is it saying “There is another person involved in this, and how they’d play into this article could be meaningful, but instead, it’s being withheld”

Hope got in my eyes

by Andrew Martin on Nov 18, 2009 9:14 AM MST reply actions 0 recs

To me it reads

“I’m not 100% confidence I can wax lyrical about JT’s tactical acument, so I’ll just say, honestly, what a lovely chap he is”

by biondino on Nov 18, 2009 9:27 AM MST up reply actions 0 recs

gah

acumen t

by biondino on Nov 18, 2009 9:27 AM MST up reply actions 0 recs

ah, this makes sense

Hope got in my eyes

by Andrew Martin on Nov 18, 2009 9:47 AM MST up reply actions 0 recs

Can I ask another, off-topic, question

Did we establish that non-baseball comments and stuff ARE welcome on PR, but only on rockpile (and I guess game?) threads?

(as long as they’re not dumb, rude, etc.)

by biondino on Nov 18, 2009 9:29 AM MST reply actions 0 recs

Yes.

NEVER SURRENDER DREAMS

Purple Row - Covering all your Rockies needs!

by Russ Oates on Nov 18, 2009 9:32 AM MST up reply actions 0 recs

Excellent, thanks

It’s not that I have loads of fascinating stuff to say, but I think any kind of community needs an outlet for the sillinesses and non sequiturs that invariably form a large part of our lives.

by biondino on Nov 18, 2009 9:47 AM MST up reply actions 0 recs

And community building exercises

like online scrabble tournaments and 3-legged races!

by Muzia on Nov 18, 2009 10:05 AM MST up reply actions 0 recs

This is why I don't have more posts to my credit...

I don’t have enough baseball stuff to say.

Donate to charity by shopping for Purple Row Merchandise at:
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by Charlie77 on Nov 18, 2009 11:21 PM MST up reply actions 0 recs

funny, considering the conversation you and I had regarding offtopic

Hope got in my eyes

by Andrew Martin on Nov 18, 2009 9:47 AM MST up reply actions 0 recs

Do I contradict myself?
Very well then I contradict myself,
(I am large, I contain multitudes.)

Walt Whitman, Leaves of Grass

NEVER SURRENDER DREAMS

Purple Row - Covering all your Rockies needs!

by Russ Oates on Nov 18, 2009 9:59 AM MST up reply actions 0 recs

Hurdlechat

Clint Hurdle is doing an online chat at 12:30 MST today if anyone is interested. Spotted at Lone Star Ball:

http://rangersblog.dallasnews.com/archives/2009/11/talk-hitting-with-rangers-hitting-instru-1.html

Something to pass the time until the manager of the year award is announced.

by phishbate on Nov 18, 2009 9:57 AM MST reply actions 0 recs

Go Tracy!

Go Rockies!…is it 2010 yet?

we seem to have gotten over that HURDLE

thanks for a great season Rockies!

LETS GO WINGS!

by TuLoRocks2008 on Nov 18, 2009 10:26 AM MST reply actions 0 recs

43 days.

NEVER SURRENDER DREAMS

Purple Row - Covering all your Rockies needs!

by Russ Oates on Nov 18, 2009 10:31 AM MST up reply actions 0 recs

I go back to work on 4th January

I reckon pitchers and catchers should too. Also, 2nd basemen who really need to sort their swing out.

by biondino on Nov 18, 2009 10:44 AM MST up reply actions 0 recs

and 3B and Catchers

Hope got in my eyes

by Andrew Martin on Nov 18, 2009 10:45 AM MST up reply actions 0 recs

I don't imagine any of those guys are actually sitting at home on their butts.

by Hizilla on Nov 18, 2009 10:56 AM MST up reply actions 0 recs

They're

sitting on their hands.

NEVER SURRENDER DREAMS

Purple Row - Covering all your Rockies needs!

by Russ Oates on Nov 18, 2009 10:59 AM MST up reply actions 0 recs

I don't imagine that either of us really think they're just dicking around

Hope got in my eyes

by Andrew Martin on Nov 18, 2009 11:26 AM MST up reply actions 0 recs

Apparently

Russ does.

by Hizilla on Nov 18, 2009 11:43 AM MST up reply actions 0 recs

yeah we'll have some Counting Rocks lovin' tomorrow

2 job interviews, a presentation, and a homework assignment to finish today.

so everybody get excited, especially you, SlamDunkTheFunk, I know you’ve been having trouble sleeping lately.

Hope got in my eyes

by Andrew Martin on Nov 18, 2009 11:27 AM MST reply actions 0 recs

So now you're usurping my column date too? :D

Eschew Obfuscation!

by Jeff Aberle on Nov 18, 2009 1:17 PM MST up reply actions 0 recs

i will not rest until i have usurped all my friends on PR

Hope got in my eyes

by Andrew Martin on Nov 18, 2009 6:31 PM MST up reply actions 0 recs

So I really shouldn't get as worked up over this as I do...

but on MLB.com’s slide for the Managers of the Year, it lists Scioscia and Tracy as receiving the awards, but when you click the article’s headline it takes you to the Scioscia article. You have to go down and click on Tracy’s name in order to see the 1/2 as long Tracy article.

I know that Tracy’s gotten love for his job all year long, and I’m predisposed to view things with a media anti-Rockies slant, but… it’s just one more thing, you know?

Regardless, congrats to Jim!

"Admirably obsessive." - Uni Watch, March 24th, 2009
NA34 | HK | RMN
"Even our depth has depth." - Silverblood

by oo_nrb on Nov 18, 2009 12:11 PM MST reply actions 0 recs

Same thing happened the other day

with the ROY – it took you to the AL article. I don’t think it’s a snub.

by Hizilla on Nov 18, 2009 12:13 PM MST up reply actions 0 recs

Don't you know...

The AL is the only league that matters. The NL is kids stuff. Nobody in the main stream baseball media cares about the National League.

by Prospector on Nov 18, 2009 12:22 PM MST up reply actions 0 recs

actually the BBWAA listed Tracy at the top of their article

THEN Scioscia

http://bbwaa.com/

Hope got in my eyes

by Andrew Martin on Nov 18, 2009 12:25 PM MST up reply actions 0 recs

Unfortunately some of this is true

One of the many reasons I wished that the NL had broken through on the AL in at least one of the metrics this year (ASG, IL, WS)

"Admirably obsessive." - Uni Watch, March 24th, 2009
NA34 | HK | RMN
"Even our depth has depth." - Silverblood

by oo_nrb on Nov 18, 2009 12:32 PM MST up reply actions 0 recs

the rockies have done their part in recent years

Well, not the World Series, but definitely the all star game and interleague

"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein

by Andrew T. Fisher on Nov 18, 2009 5:05 PM MST via mobile up reply actions 0 recs

Tracy Wins!!!

by Hizilla on Nov 18, 2009 12:11 PM MST reply actions 0 recs

story about to post

Hope got in my eyes

by Andrew Martin on Nov 18, 2009 12:16 PM MST up reply actions 0 recs

As far as the D'Backs are concerned, I have a couple of thoughts on them that might not be too popular with their fans

1) I don’t think they are that good. They have two great pitchers (Webb and Haren) and two great hitters (Reynolds and Young) and that’s it. Stephen Drew is a nice shortstop (career .771 OPS) but that’s it and Conor Jackson is a good but not great hitter. To me the D’Backs are a team with a few great players and no real supporting cast; and if any of those great players gets injured, like Webb did last year, their season is pretty much over. I don’t think they are a terrible team, I just think they are destined to float around .500 with the pieces they have there.

2) I don’ think the D’Backs ever were that good. (Last three years) In 2007 everybody likes to think that the Rockies were the fluke, but that couldn’t be further from the truth. The D’Backs that year were outscored by their opponents by 20 runs over the 162 games that season. According to the pythagorean win/loss, they should have only won 79 games; 11 fewer than their actual division winning total of 90. The Rockies on the other hand outscored their opponents by 102 runs in 2007 and had a pythagorean win/loss of 91 wins which was more than anyone else in the NL. So despite what Eric Byrnes thinks, the Rockies actually were the best team in the NL in 2007 over the course of 162 games and not just during the last few weeks of the season. At the same time the D’Backs winning 90 games while being outscored by 20 runs was the real fluke.

In 2008 the D’Backs led the division for almost the entire season with Webb and Haren both pitching well but their lead had more to do with the mediocrity of the NL West that season than the talent level of their team. They ended the season just two wins shy of their second consecutive division title but with only 82 wins. In just about any other season they would hovered around third place for most of the year but a bad NL West may have given them a false sense of security.

In 2009 Webb was injured so that 70 win number is obviously low, but I don’t think this group of players are or ever were much better than a .500 team.

I wonder if Bud Selig will give the Yankees a receipt with their World Series purchase

by RhodeIslandRoxfan on Nov 18, 2009 1:33 PM MST reply actions 0 recs

pyth w/l isnt all luck

Overachieving pyth can mean four things – 1) luck, 2) clutch performances late in games leading to a strong record in close games 3) a great closer 4) the most effective management of critical late game match ups

To illustrate more, the rockies underachieved their pyth ever season except two, essentially the career years for Jose Jimenez and Brian Fuentes. Coincidence? It sure was strange and maybe they couldn’t reproduce 91 wins with that team again. But I have a hard time calling the top playoff seed a fluke and not that good regardless of circumstances. They earned it with executing late, essentially

As for Chris young, he was demoted to AAA for several weeks after hitting under .200most of the season. He may have found the light switch, but I still have trouble calling him “great”

But I’m essentially with you. They exceeded, IMO, their talent levell in recent years and I had a hard time understanding why they were projected by some as divisional champs. It will be interesting to see what Webb and CoJack can offer

"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein

by Andrew T. Fisher on Nov 18, 2009 5:00 PM MST via mobile up reply actions 0 recs

underachieved every season UNDER HURDLE

"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein

by Andrew T. Fisher on Nov 18, 2009 5:01 PM MST via mobile up reply actions 0 recs

my guess is she meant upton when she said young

Winners never quit, and quitters never win. But if you never quit *and* never win, you are an idiot

by squalene203 on Nov 18, 2009 9:08 PM MST up reply actions 0 recs

Yes he did

Thank you for reading my mind. The worst part about that mistake is I actually proofread it. I guess have selective seeing as well as selective hearing.

I wonder if Bud Selig will give the Yankees a receipt with their World Series purchase

by RhodeIslandRoxfan on Nov 18, 2009 10:03 PM MST up reply actions 0 recs

I completely agree with your pyth win/loss analysis

I think any of or a combination of the four things you mentioned above can affect it. However I really think luck played by far the biggest role in the 2007 D’Back pyth win/loss not matching up with their actual win/loss.

If we take a look at the 2009 Yankees, a team that exceed it’s pyth win/loss by eight games, they show all of the signs of executing late. (It hurt typing that) First of all, they had Mariano Rivera who was his typical amazing self only blowing two saves all year. In addition they won five games when trailing after eight innings while only losing two when leading after eight innings (the two Rivera blown saves). Even more amazing however is their 13-4 record when the game was tied after eight innings. So as painful as it is for me to say this, the Yankees probably deserved their 103 wins because Rivera had another great season and their offense constantly executed in late situations.

Now for 2007 D’Backs. Jose Valverde, their closer that year had seven blown saves. His overall numbers are pretty good but seven blown saves means that 11 game discrepancy wasn’t coming from his performances. If you look at their record late in games, they won only three when trailing after eight innings and only six when trailing after seven inning. On the flip side they lost four games when leading after eight innings and lost seven when leading after seven. Their record when tied after eight innings was a very pedestrain 6-5. Bob Melvin did win manager of the year for them but his case wasn’t a slam dunk. When I see that and try to figure out why their record ended up where it was, I have to think it was more luck than executing late.

http://www.baseball-reference.com/play-index/inning_summary.cgi?year_game=2007&team_id=ARI

I know I’m being hard on that team and many of you probably think I’m insane for calling a top playoff seed a fluke but I really think the numbers make a strong case fot it.

I wonder if Bud Selig will give the Yankees a receipt with their World Series purchase

by RhodeIslandRoxfan on Nov 18, 2009 10:01 PM MST up reply actions 0 recs