NL West in Review: Left Fielders

by Andrew T. Fisher on Nov 30, 2009 11:00 PM MST in NL West Report Comment 21 comments

Barry Bonds must have set a hex on the NL West.

In 2009, the Dodgers had easily the most talented left fielder in the division. When Manny received his infamous suspension, Juan Pierre made sure that Los Angeles didn't miss a beat.

Gerardo Parra appeared on the Rookie of the Year ballot.

The Rockies saw Seth Smith and Carlos Gonzalez emerge from the bench and minors to become their most dangerous left-handed bats in the lineup.

And yet, the Giants still finish atop the WAR rankings, even though I'm pretty sure every player the Giants played in left field received death threats from MCC. How did they do it? UZR, of course.


Teams	Players	Avg	HR	RBI	OBP	SLG	wOBA*	WAR
1. San Francisco	5	.269	11	59	.328	.411	.340	4.66
2. Los Angeles	4	.302	18	86	.407	.469	.377	4.57
3. Colorado	5	.268	20	74	.332	.440	.346	3.94
4. Arizona	6	.265	13	82	.319	.310	.402	2.10
5. San Diego	8	.250	12	76	.325	.371	.320	0.24

With the positional RAR set at -7.5, here is your chart:

Nlwestlf2009_medium

The actual player rankings hold some certain surprises for you:

This time, I have included the full rankings. I'm still messing with the format, so let me know if this blinds you:

Nlwestlf2009play_medium

For the raw data and calculations, check this Google Docs link.

Arizona

2009 in Review

One of the great surprises in the above list is Eric Byrnes' appearance higher on the list than rookie Gerardo Parra. The crash test dummy did almost all of his offensive damage in 2009 as a left fielder, while his UZR far outpaced any of his brethren. It turns out somersaults are worth 0.5 UZR each. Parra, meanwhile, treated D-Backs fans to a rookie season slightly above average with both the bat and glove.

2010 in Preview

Parra is only 22, so his rookie season was notable. Arizona should feel confident going forward with Parra as their primary left fielder in 2010, although he doesn't have the ceiling of a Carlos Gonzalez. Josh Byrnes will likely purge Eric Byrnes and his $11mil salary before the season starts.

Colorado

2009 in Review

Even though Seth Smith did his best work from the bench and had only a half season's worth of PA's from LF, the former Rebel was within a stone's throw from the NL West's top spot. Mr. Late Night hit and scored a run from all nine slots in the batting order and hit lefties at just 25 OPS points lower than vs righties. Carlos Gonzalez was strong in his 133 PA, while Ryan Spilborghs provided a strong glove and average bat from the right side.

2010 in Preview

If Dan O'Dowd indeed moves Brad Hawpe, the job will belong to Seth Smith. If not, the Rockies' outfield carousel will continue, forcing Smith to give up ABs to CarGo and Spilly. The Bill James projection, usually optimistic for batters, projects a 14-point wOBA drop from Smith to .369.

Los Angeles

2009 in Review

Even after being suspended for 50 games, Manny Ramirez achieved the most PAs among NL West LF's. He led the divison in every stat except batting average and UZR. Juan Pierre replaced Ramirez admirably, enough that his contributions in even surpassed Manny. But even after having the top two LFs in the division in 2009, they were only second to the Giants.

2010 in Preview

Ramirez will make $20mil in the second and final year of the contract he signed with Los Angeles on March 4. He is the clear starter for 2010, even though his bat speed has started to slow.

San Diego

2009 in Review

The top rated Padre was a rookie first baseman thrown out to left field for 53 PA's, ranked 13th. That should tell you what you need to know. Chase Headley was the main starter, but the converted third baseman is still clearly trying to find his way as an outfielder, and he struggled with the bat most of the year, at least until he took over for an injured Kouzmanoff at third.

2010 in Preview

With Kouzmanoff entrenched still as the third baseman, Chase Headley will be stuck in left field again in 2010. He is under complete team control financially, so it would be especially nice for San Diego if he lived up to the 31-point wOBA leap Bill James is projecting from him in 2010.

San Francisco

2009 in Review

The Giants were the surprise winner from the 7-spot. All five players who played there achieved positive UZRs, including John Bowker, giving the Giants 2.5 WAR just on defense. Eugenio Velez hit very well in left (yet struggled at second), while Fred Lewis and Randy Winn provided notable value in spite of pedestrian offensive numbers.

2010 in Preview

This spot may be the most interesting to follow in the offseason. Jason Bay and Matt Holliday have been linked to the Giants, but it appears San Francisco will favor multiple smaller fish instead. The club's 2009 WAR in LF is pretty flukey, as multiple players hit better in LF than at other positions, and I don't quite trust that UZR. It would be a good place to improve. If no one is added, that Velez/Lewis/Torres/Schierholtz hodgepodge will continue.

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Comments

I just flat don't like UZR

Over a career, maybe, but not for a single year, and certainly not for fractions of a year like it is calculated for most of the players on this list. I feel something must be fundamentally wrong with it if it is enough to vault the pretty pedestrian Giants over the Dodgers and Rockies. Not to mention that it had Tulo and Dex being below average fielders this year. It just doesn’t jibe with what I see on the tube.

Winners never quit, and quitters never win. But if you never quit *and* never win, you are an idiot

by squalene203 on Nov 30, 2009 11:47 PM MST reply actions

I certainly can't blame you

I have dealt with UZR all season, but scrutinizing it this close has been illuminating. That’s why I include the component graph above the fold, so you can see just what that WAR is made of. LA ravishes the division in everything sans UZR.

"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein

by Andrew T. Fisher on Dec 1, 2009 6:23 AM MST up reply actions

Still, much of it makes sense

Juan Pierre is a good fielder. Manny Ramirez is an atrocious fielder. UZR may be flawed, but if you took it out, LA would get no penalty for sending a wooden post out there for 104 games.

I agree that UZR doesn’t seem to be a very robust stat, and I hope that FanGraphs changes up the defensive component of their WAR stat to include more methods of measuring defensive contribution, but as it is, I like the way they go about calculating value.

by controlled_slide on Dec 1, 2009 9:13 AM MST up reply actions

The defensive stats used by UZR and RZR are just glorified Fielding%...

they reward players for playing solid, if not spectacular defense. However, if you look at THT’s Out Of Zone (OOZ) plays it gives a different view of the players defensive profile.

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by Charlie77 on Dec 1, 2009 10:22 AM MST up reply actions

UZR gives credit for out of zone plays...

Aaron King is still my homeboy... iffy mechanics and all

McFAQ for all you newcomers out there.

GET THAT VORP AND WHIP SH!T OUTTA HERE!!!

by baetown415 on Dec 1, 2009 1:07 PM MST up reply actions

I would say UZR acknowledges OOZ..

more than it gives credit for highlight plays. Here is a breakdown of NL West leftfielders by defensive metric. I calculated OOZ% based on OOZ plays divided by Putouts. UZR gives Randy Winn credit for one of the highest Ranges in the division, but only 17% of his outs are made OOZ. Actually UZR rates Winn’s range (5.7) as nearly twice that of CarGo’s range (3.1), however 36% of Carlos’ outs were made out of his zone.

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by Charlie77 on Dec 1, 2009 5:42 PM MST up reply actions

Not surprising that Ooz% is vastly different since it is not a counting stat

I’m guessing these are positional splits for LF only?

"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein

by Andrew T. Fisher on Dec 1, 2009 5:52 PM MST via mobile up reply actions

Yes..

although CarGo’s OOZ% is similar in CF (37%) as well.

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by Charlie77 on Dec 1, 2009 5:56 PM MST up reply actions

Dude

If a player makes a play out of his zone, UZR gives him credit (+1 in range) for that. How is that not giving credit?

Aaron King is still my homeboy... iffy mechanics and all

McFAQ for all you newcomers out there.

GET THAT VORP AND WHIP SH!T OUTTA HERE!!!

by baetown415 on Dec 2, 2009 12:52 PM MST up reply actions

My point is that UZR doesn't give enough credit for plays made out of zone..

4 of the top 6 UZR leftfielders in the NL West are on the top 6 Fielding Pct list. Only 2 of the top 6 are on the OOZ% list. Which tells me that UZR is playing it safe.

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by Charlie77 on Dec 2, 2009 8:35 PM MST up reply actions

Are using UZR or UZR/150?

Because if you’re just comparing UZR, of course Cargo and Pierre are going to be near the bottom, they don’t have nearly as many innings in LF as other players do, so you’re not getting a good representative sample. I mean, that’d be like complaining that a September callup only has 1 dinger when his opening-day-starter teammate has 27.

If you’re using UZR/150 I take it all back and just raise an eyebrow at UZR/150 like I have been all season.

Hope got in my eyes

by Andrew Martin on Dec 3, 2009 8:57 AM MST up reply actions

A part of me wants to link this article to MCC to see what their reaction is

I wonder if Bud Selig will give the Yankees a receipt with their World Series purchase

by RhodeIslandRoxfan on Dec 1, 2009 12:49 PM MST reply actions

likewise

"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein

by Andrew T. Fisher on Dec 1, 2009 5:53 PM MST via mobile up reply actions

Giants fan says " this is all hooey"

Sorry for the deep bump, purple stripers.

But this just doesn’t all add. You cannot add up the individual UZR of players and get a whole sum because UZR is based on what a player does extrapolated over a year. And I watched a lot of Giants games, and I can assure that at no point did Bowker, Lewis, Velez and Winn play LF at the same time.

You cannot use individual stats based on replacement comparison and add them together. It doesn’t work that way. It’d be like saying that if all you OFs hit n-points over positional average, they are that n^3 points better than average. Not a true mathematical statement.

by chefasaurus on Dec 3, 2009 12:25 AM MST reply actions

Don't worry PF

I still look forward to reading this tread every week and think that overall it paints a pretty accurate picture.

I wonder if Bud Selig will give the Yankees a receipt with their World Series purchase

by RhodeIslandRoxfan on Dec 3, 2009 12:44 AM MST up reply actions

no....

that isn’t how algebra works

you see if I have 3 OF who hit n-points over positional average, I don’t think it’s too far out of the line of reason to think that they’d hit 3n as a collective. Not n^3, and I don’t know where that comes from, I don’t think I’ve ever multiplied Carlos Gonzalez with Seth Smith, although the results would be undoubtedly DixieLazor.

That said, UZR/150 is extrapolated over a year, so if that’s what you meant, you’re absolutely correct. However, PF is using UZR, and UZR is a counting stat, which basically means “Runs saved above replacement (or average, I forgot off of the top of my head)” so yeah, you can certainly add them up. By setting the benchmark for “Replacement (or Average)” for every position, just adding up the production above said level is perfectly relevant, provided your analysis is just in terms of “Above Replacement (or Average)”.

You’re also missing the point on grading Velez, Bowker, Lewis, and Winn in LF – of course they didn’t play LF at the same time, and to think that PF is suggesting that is silly. However, if you add up all of Velez, Bowker, Lewis, and Winn’s innings in LF, I have this sneaking suspicion they add up to 1458 (or thereabouts, stupid extra-inning affairs – oh wait I like extra innings v SFG), so you need to account for all of their LF production, or lack thereof. He isn’t taking Randy Winn in CF/RF and applying that to LF, only the innings where Winn played LF.

Does that clear things up a bit?

Hope got in my eyes

by Andrew Martin on Dec 3, 2009 8:54 AM MST up reply actions

But dosn't using UZR

with three left fielders who all have small sample sizes leave you much more vulnerable to unwanted flucuations in your data? Or does the fact that you are adding them up eliminate that?

I wonder if Bud Selig will give the Yankees a receipt with their World Series purchase

by RhodeIslandRoxfan on Dec 3, 2009 9:34 AM MST up reply actions

That's what I was getting at, in a round about way

UZR isn’t supposed to used as a counting stat. It’s is supposed to be an average over time (actually more like three years than one by some accounts.) Even one season is too small of a sample size. So using numbers based on guys who played 30 games or so is so small the margin of error approaches 100%.

If you try and extrapolate, you can’t use all the players. And if you try to “add” you end up with data based in essentially nothing. You can’t really go about it either way.

I’m not try to dispute that defense can be measured to over come brutally awful offense. But the methodology in this case just doesn’t add up. That 4.66 WAR attributed to Giants LFs is the sum total of the WAR of Bowker, Velez, Lewis, Winn and Torres. You can’t sum total extrapolated stats. Those “Wins” are what you’d get if you played Player X every game instead of Replacement Player.

PF, I appreciate the work. I really do. It just seems that the stats your work is based on are flawed before you start crunching the numbers. All of the stats that try and account for measurable “wins” and “runs” are subject to all kinds of error. Your raw data suggests that in 150 ABs, Velez “won” 1.5 Games more than a replacement player over a year. And if doesn’t mean that, it means he would win 6 games over 600 ABs. Putting him at #11 in all of baseball.

by chefasaurus on Dec 3, 2009 3:52 PM MST up reply actions

That's the thing

Tony Clark and Felipe Lopez hit two home runs on Opening Day, but does anyone think that mean they could hit 324 in an entire season? Of course not. Just because something isn’t sustainable doesn’t mean it didn’t happen. Just as a player can have a random HR streak, he can have a random value streak (as it is largely based on wOBA).

I’m really not sure where you’re getting that WAR is extrapolated over a season. It’s not. It counts up as the season goes along. Proof: Felipe Lopez was a 1.9 WAR player with AZ, a 2.6 WAR player with Milwaukee. Check his Fangraphs page, and he is a 4.6 WAR player. I didn’t just go to Fangraphs and pick out Velez total WAR + Winn total WAR etc. I did the work to break down ONLY their contributions from left field, so they most certainly are additive.

You are correct in noting the potential for additive or even synergistic errors. While it’s possible that the errors could negate themselves with equal parts negative and positive errors, the potential certainly exists for the SSS errors to compound on each other. That’s why I said this at the beginning of the series:

Note that these numbers are not perfect. They are best used for window-shopping comparison rather than hard evidence.

Do I actually believe the Giants had a more valuable LF? Absolutely not. I even said in the article that the Giants LF WAR was “pretty flukey.” But what I do take from this is that due to the revolving door effect and unappreciated defense, the Giants LFers were far more valuable than people believe even including errors, and that is a message worth taking home.

I’ll buy all day the error issues and that this is seemingly presenting precise data from blunt instruments. Some of the raw data is indeed flawed. I acknowledge that, and any reader should be taking that into account as well. But I assure you I have gone to great lengths to assure that the calculations are done as accurately as is possible for the information I have available, even having a consultation with David Appelman. But don’t worry, the Giants won’t be tops on the list this week :)

"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein

by Andrew T. Fisher on Dec 4, 2009 9:05 AM MST up reply actions

And again, you're still taking UZR to be extrapolated

did you read my post? UZR is a counting stat. It is. It is runs saved over the course of the player’s playing time. UZR/150 is extrapolated. PF did not use this in his evaluation.

A player flubs a play, his UZR goes down. He makes a great rangey play, his UZR goes up. That’s how it goes.

The issue with the whole “3 year” thing is just to try and establish a skill level. Just as I wouldn’t look at Ryan Spilborghs’ 2008 and chisel into stone “Ryan Spilborghs is a .384 wOBA player”, the fact remains that in 2008 Ryan Spilborghs posted a .384 wOBA and thereby contributed whatever value that adds to the Rockies’ efforts. If he posted that .384 followed by a .391 and then a .380, I’d be somewhat confident with saying that he’s a mid-.380s wOBA hitter, but not just based on one great season. Seeing how he DIDN’T repeat his high performance in 2009, I’m pretty confident he’s not really a mid-.380s hitter.

Similarly, Dexter Fowler is scouted as being an excellent defensive CF. UZR hated him in 2009. Does that mean that Fowler is not a good CF? Well, if he posts UZR/150s of -20 for the next 2 seasons, yeah, I might be a bit more willing to say he’s not that great. He was probably just not adjusted to Coors Field, and he’s pretty young yet. I’m sure he’ll figure things out a bit better over the next 5 years, and be a pretty decent CF. (We should be putting CarGo in CF FWIW)

Fact is, PF isn’t trying to make the claim that Eugenio Velez is a 6 win player. He may have just played very good LF for the short amount of time he was there, and had you left him there all season, he might’ve started flubbing more, missing things, etc etc etc.

Garrett Atkins has like 1 game at 2B in his career (incidentally, against the Giants) as part of an injury-riddled multi-switch, and he ranged to his left ridiculously for one deep grounder, spun, and threw out the runner at 1B for the 3rd out. Ridiculous play. Lucky play. Awesome play. Point is, Atkins was worth 0.5 runs defensively at 2B in 2008. You can’t take that away from him. But is he really a 4.6 win 2B (as UZR/150 would suggest)? Absolutely not, and to even suggest as such is absurd. But he DID provide that much run prevention, and that is undeniable. That rate, however, is unsustainable, as we know that Atkins is a garbage fielder in general with terrible range.

Like it or hate it, Velez provided 7.1 runs for the Giants in 2009 while he played in LF. Randy Winn provided 7.9. Bowker, 2.7. Lewis, 3.9. Those are the facts. Are they actually that good, and if you put any of them aside from Winn in LF full time, would they produce at that rate? No, I seriously doubt it. But they DID provide that much value in 2009.

Hope got in my eyes

by Andrew Martin on Dec 4, 2009 9:55 AM MST up reply actions