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Swing and a miss! –or- Jip Jip Jorge!

Somebody swung and missed at this pitch.

More photos » Ben Margot - AP

Somebody swung and missed at this pitch.

Alas, poor Jorge: I knew him well...at least that's how we all felt when he left against the Dodgers with a left groin pull. Losing Jorge De La Rosa may have been a major part of the Rockies' 4-game loss in the NLDS against the 2009 NL Champion Phillies. However, at this point, what's done is done, and I feel we can look back on his season and be pleased for the most part.

Starting 2 weeks ago, Counting Rocks is looking at the Rockies' rotation and drooling over the good things they've done and finding ways to brush the bad things under the rug.

This was a promising season for De La Rosa. After bouncing through 2 professional leagues (MLB, Mexican League) and 5 MLB franchises (Arizona, Boston, Milwaukee, Kansas City, Colorado), it would seem that at least for the time being, Jorge has found somewhere to call home. I'm sure I'm not alone when I say how pleased I am that he's here.

DLR has brought electricity to the mound that we haven't really seen since Pedro Astacio and Bruce Ruffin. DLR came to the mound with a 4 pitch arsenal: a 92-95mph fastball, slider, curveball, and changeup. This season, his fastball was really nothing terribly special (according to Fangraphs, as will the rest be), his curveball was roughly an average pitch, but his slider and changeup were remarkably positive pitches, and while nowhere near the top of the leaderboards, you can find his pitch values somewhere around the middle of the first page, anyhow.

No, what stands out about Jorge's pitches isn't how they rank in terms of run values in the majors, but rather what other batters were able to do with the pitches.

Join us after the jump as we look at Jorge's skillsets and how he's used them in the 2009 season.

Star-divide

Firstly, he's a strikeout machine. Now, he doesn't have the sheer number of punchouts that Jimenez and Astacio have/had, but that's mostly because they are/were more durable pitchers, more innings, etc. That said, DLR's 2009 season in terms of sheer strikeout totals ranked 3rd in Rockies' history, tied with Pedro Astacio's 2000, at 193. Ranked ahead of him are: Ubaldo Jimenez' 2009, with 198, and Pedro Astacio's 1999, where he fanned 210 batters. Following is the Rockies' all-time leaderboard in terms of single-season strikeouts.

Rank

Player

SO

Year

1

Pedro Astacio

210

1999

2

Ubaldo Jimenez

198

2009

T3

Pedro Astacio

193

2000

T3

Jorge de la Rosa

193

2009

5

Ubaldo Jimenez

172

2008

6

Pedro Astacio

170

1998

7

Jeff Francis

165

2007

8

Darryl Kile

158

1998

9

Jason Jennings

142

2006

10

Denny Neagle

139

2001

 

Secondly, past the total strikeouts, De La Rosa was able to get more people to swing and miss at his pitches than anyone on the staff, making batters look silly with 10.6% of his pitches. He ranked 14th in the majors among eligible starters in this Swinging Strike% category. That's nasty right there. DLR also was 10th in the majors in terms of % of pitches that resulted in balls in play, at 16.9%. Now with a guy like DLR, you almost don't want him to put it in play. He's not TERRIBLY home run prone, but he did allow an OPS of .745 this season (which means batters batted just a shade below average against DLR as a collective). But remember that only 1 pitch per plate appearance can be put into play, and even then, sometimes one ISN'T put into play.

I'd be remiss if I just presented the number of batters who swung and missed without presenting any of the downside. While we can cheer about DLR making guys whiff and not putting a lot of balls into play, DLR also ranked 17th in the majors in Ball%, in the bad way. Yes, 38.9% of DLR's pitches landed outside of the zone, while 43.9% fell for strikes/balls. This is new, right, the revelation that he walks too many guys? Anyhow.

But all of these numbers are kind of meaningless without putting them into context. As you all know, I'm a big fan of component rate stats: K/9, K/BB, BB/9, and HR/9. DLR posted a 9.39 K/9 this season, which is a career best for him, beating last year's mark of 8.86. Check out DLR's components below:

Season

Team

K/9

BB/9

K/BB

HR/9

AVG

WHIP

FIP

2004

Brewers

1.99

5.56

0.36

0.4

0.312

1.9

5.17

2005

Brewers

8.93

8.08

1.11

0.21

0.287

2.03

4.04

2006

Brewers/Royals

7.63

6.15

1.24

1.59

0.267

1.71

5.88

2007

Royals

5.68

3.67

1.55

1.38

0.304

1.64

5.27

2008

Rockies

8.86

4.29

2.06

0.9

0.259

1.46

4.06

2009

Rockies

9.39

4.04

2.33

0.97

0.248

1.38

3.91

(Bolded numbers indicate career bests)

 

DLR took strides this season, and this really has been the best year of his career. He's 29 on opening day 2010, so while I don't anticipate him getting better, per se, I do see him being able to refine his BB9 while maintaining a high K/9. (It should be noted his 2009 numbers are very slightly skewed by his 1 relief appearance, his numbers as just a starter are slightly better overall, but not enough to post JUST his results as a starting pitcher.)

I'd also like to point out that that Jorge posted a 4.10 tRA* (the regressed and adjusted and lathered/rinsed/repeated version of tRA that takes everything into account) this season, good for 21st overall in the majors, and 2nd on the Rockies behind our boy Ubaldo.

So this is all nice and fun, but seeing how we're looking at DLR's numbers in terms of the Rockies' franchise, chew on this for a minute:

Jorge De La Rosa holds the top 2 marks in franchise history for strikeouts per 9. Yes, higher than Pedro Astacio. Higher than Bruce Ruffin. Higher than Darryl Kile. He tops them all.

Rank

Player

K/9

Year

1

Jorge de la Rosa

9.389

2009

2

Jorge de la Rosa

8.861

2008

3

Pedro Astacio

8.847

2000

4

Ubaldo Jimenez

8.174

2009

5

Pedro Astacio

8.147

1999

6

Bruce Ruffin

8.119

1993

7

Pedro Astacio

7.979

2001

8

Ubaldo Jimenez

7.792

2008

9

Shawn Chacon

7.537

2001

10

Byung-Hyun Kim

7.49

2006

 

Nothing's more fun for me than watching a pitcher amass strikeouts in a single game. This season, among his 32 starts (remember he missed that one at the ASB and pitched terribly in relief in one game just to give him a little work before a big layover), De La Rosa threw 3 games with 10 or more punchouts, 5 with 9 or more, 8 with 8 or more, and 11 with 7 or more strikeouts. It's hardly Lincecum-esque, but that's pretty awesome right there. Only Ubaldo really ranks about De La Rosa in this area of being a sheer lockdown pitcher, and that's simply because where Ubaldo lacks in the K9 department, he has a good 5-10% extra GB% as an insurance policy against the few scattered baserunners he allows.

So I've put my opinion on my sleeve pretty firmly here, I think DLR is a stud. His stuff is destructive. He's shown a lot of growth and maturity, especially in some games down the stretch where he allowed himself to be stretched an extra inning or two extra in some outings where they needed their starter to give some innings - specifically I'm thinking about his August 22 start against SF, where he got hit for 6 runs early, but still stretched out over 6 innings while the Rockies rallied and ultimately won the game 12-8.

Of DLR's 32 starts, he only had 7 starts where he allowed more than 4 runs (9 if you include the 4 run games), 2 games with 6 runs allowed, 4 with 7 runs allowed. Those 4 7-run starts have me disturbed, as well as the 2 6-run starts, because it's not as if we can just write them off to April shakiness or whatever - 2 came in May, 2 in August, 1 in June, 1 in September. The small "good" we can take out of those terrible 6 starts are 2 small-ish things: First, he was able to make it out of the 4th in 2 of the starts, pitching 5 and 6 innings in 2 of these stinkers, so at least he mopped up a bit of his own mess; second, his walk totals aren't obscene in them. Out of the 6 stinker starts, only 2 of them featured more walks than strikeouts, and only 1 of them featured more than 3 walks - well, 2 if you count HBP, but I'm looking that as kind of a different thing, esp in how it factors into pitch count. What I'm trying to point out here is that DLR's biggest weakness may seem to be wildness, but BBs weren't what killed him in his worst starts. In 3 of his 6 stinkers, however, he allowed 2 or more long balls.

It's pretty obvious we're putting lipstick on a pig in these cases, because it's not as if the "not as bad as it could've been" factor suddenly makes the runs not count or something, it's more that it simply looks like he just had "those days" rather than "man this guy just sucks", as the losses didn't really show his weaknesses - at least in the form of his recurring lack of control. If we wanna talk about emotional issues, whew, that's not really my field, but I'll be happy to discuss it. (My stance is the feared Jekyll and Hyde nature of DLR is starting to fade, almost like an evanescent mist, as he finds himself in a more stable role with the team, especially a team as good as the Rockies. I imagine knowing that even if he gives up 3-4 runs, the game isn't over, so he can pitch a bit looser and with a bit more confidence.)

So to conclude this praise of De La Rosa's 2009 season, I'll just leave you with with one line from DLR's split stats:

Opponent Name

G

W

L

PA

AB

SO/9

BA

OBP

SLG

OPS

OPS+

ERA

IP

WHIP

Arizona Diamondbacks

4

3

1

109

93

7.4

.172

.287

.258

.545

50

1.35

26.2

1.163

0 recs  |  Comment 48 comments |

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HA!

Hope got in my eyes

by Andrew Martin on Nov 4, 2009 11:29 AM MST up reply actions   0 recs

Diamondbacks Look Ridiculous

when facing Jorge.

"You spend a good piece of your life gripping a baseball and in the end it turns out that it was the other way around the whole time." - Jim Bouton

by Franchise26 on Nov 4, 2009 12:40 PM MST up reply actions   0 recs

Kind of hard to believe he's a stud

with those 7-run games looking out from his stats.

I look at it this way, if I have to worry about Bad-Jorge rearing his ugly head when its least expected, he’s not a stud.

The oxen are slow, but the earth is patient.

by rockieprogress on Nov 4, 2009 12:30 PM MST reply actions   0 recs

yeah that's the issue

his domination potential is just so high, I have trouble NOT seeing him as a stud

Hope got in my eyes

by Andrew Martin on Nov 4, 2009 12:38 PM MST up reply actions   0 recs

Even Johan Santana and Tim Lincecum get blown up from time to time

obviously, DLR did more frequently, but 1) no one ascertains he’ll ever be at Timmy’s level and 2) this season still marks an upswing in his career. As the season wore on, he got better, which in context of the last few years certainly looks good

"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein

by Andrew T. Fisher on Nov 4, 2009 12:43 PM MST up reply actions   0 recs

He might not be a stud because on his inconsistencies but he's a damn good #3

The thing about JDLR is when he brings the “A” game, there might be only a handfull of guys better than him in the game.

I'm still hoping to wake up from that nightmare I had about the 9th inning of Game 4.

by RhodeIslandRoxfan on Nov 4, 2009 1:53 PM MST up reply actions   0 recs

He came up so big in that Giant game

I'm still hoping to wake up from that nightmare I had about the 9th inning of Game 4.

by RhodeIslandRoxfan on Nov 4, 2009 3:13 PM MST up reply actions   0 recs

If we can get the "A" game 75% of his starts

We win, right?

"It breaks your heart. It is designed to break your heart." - A. Bartlett Giamatti

by Rawktober on Nov 4, 2009 2:32 PM MST up reply actions   0 recs

Do you mean we win the division?

I'm still hoping to wake up from that nightmare I had about the 9th inning of Game 4.

by RhodeIslandRoxfan on Nov 4, 2009 3:12 PM MST up reply actions   0 recs

just we win in the general sense

"It breaks your heart. It is designed to break your heart." - A. Bartlett Giamatti

by Rawktober on Nov 4, 2009 3:18 PM MST up reply actions   0 recs

I'm to the point that I feel "Bad-Jorge" is a thing of the past.

People ask me what I do in winter when there's no baseball. I'll tell you what I do. I stare out the window and wait for spring. ~Rogers Hornsby

by pedalpusher on Nov 4, 2009 4:33 PM MST up reply actions   0 recs

After watching Ryan Howard flail away at sliders

in the WS, it’s just a shame he didn’t have to face JDLR twice in the NLDS.

by 6161Maris on Nov 4, 2009 2:52 PM MST reply actions   0 recs

The more I think of it

Ryan Howard’s game is more like Clint Barmes’ offensive game, on steroids – minus fantastic defense. Same strengths and weaknesses across the board

"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein

by Andrew T. Fisher on Nov 4, 2009 3:08 PM MST up reply actions   0 recs

You did not just use Ryan Howard and Clint Barmes in the same sentance.

I can see what you mean though. When they go bad, they go really really bad.

I'm still hoping to wake up from that nightmare I had about the 9th inning of Game 4.

by RhodeIslandRoxfan on Nov 4, 2009 3:10 PM MST up reply actions   0 recs

Now I'm sad again

I'm still hoping to wake up from that nightmare I had about the 9th inning of Game 4.

by RhodeIslandRoxfan on Nov 4, 2009 3:08 PM MST up reply actions   0 recs

Jorge may not be a stud

But by the numbers he’s the best #3 pitcher the Rockies have ever had in their rotation. I think now he knows what his role is in the Rox rotation and his confidence will only improve.

Looking forward to next season and expecting the Rox to win at least 2/3 of the games he starts. Now if we could get that from the rest of the staff as well!

Didn’t Jorge also have some of the best run support during the season?

Thanks for a great season of Baseball!
I'll be back next year for another ride.

by TripleT-Rox on Nov 4, 2009 3:44 PM MST reply actions   0 recs

I think you're right about the run support but I don't know where to find it

I'm still hoping to wake up from that nightmare I had about the 9th inning of Game 4.

by RhodeIslandRoxfan on Nov 4, 2009 4:31 PM MST up reply actions   0 recs

Question for everyone

Has JDLR shown you enough to think about signing him long term. He will be 29 next year and is a free agent after next season? (Arbitration eligible for 2010) His upside is so high.

I'm still hoping to wake up from that nightmare I had about the 9th inning of Game 4.

by RhodeIslandRoxfan on Nov 4, 2009 4:34 PM MST reply actions   0 recs

Oops

question mark and period are in the wrong spots

I'm still hoping to wake up from that nightmare I had about the 9th inning of Game 4.

by RhodeIslandRoxfan on Nov 4, 2009 4:36 PM MST up reply actions   0 recs

What do you consider "long term"? I'd be OK with a 2-3 year deal or there abouts.

People ask me what I do in winter when there's no baseball. I'll tell you what I do. I stare out the window and wait for spring. ~Rogers Hornsby

by pedalpusher on Nov 4, 2009 4:37 PM MST up reply actions   0 recs

3-5 years

You pick how long you want it to be in there.

I'm still hoping to wake up from that nightmare I had about the 9th inning of Game 4.

by RhodeIslandRoxfan on Nov 4, 2009 5:30 PM MST up reply actions   0 recs

I wouldn't sign any pitcher beyond 3 years

Risk of injury just too high. Look at Francis. Two years ago, he was considered the rock of our rotation. Now, we don’t truly know whether he’ll ever be an effective ML starter again. Maybe, just maybe, a 4th year mutual option.

Of course, if you’re truly an elite pitcher the Yanks will offer you six years anyway, but that doesn’t make doing so smart.

Watching the purple row from high atop the big brown monolith on California Ave

by Mondogarage on Nov 4, 2009 5:36 PM MST up reply actions   0 recs

Well over the life of the contract it kind of evened out

I don’t regret signing Francis to the contract he got.

Hope got in my eyes

by Andrew Martin on Nov 4, 2009 6:48 PM MST up reply actions   0 recs

I'm Ron Burgundy?

I’m apprehensive about a 29 year old with mild headcase problems. He’s farfarfarfarfarfar better this season than he was last season, and then times about 1000 from 2 seasons ago.

I’m ok with 2 years, vesting option on a 3rd.

Hope got in my eyes

by Andrew Martin on Nov 4, 2009 6:51 PM MST up reply actions   0 recs

I am happy that JDLR

 has made such a turnaround from his time with KC. Like someone said its nice to know if you give up a 3 spot early that you automatically get the loss.

by gordonrules on Nov 4, 2009 10:00 PM MST reply actions   0 recs

I posted it at the time

and I still feel his injury killed our division/post season chances. As you can see from the WS, lefties are the key to beating the Phils and he could have neutralized them by pitching a couple of times in a short series. I also have come to believe you need two solid lefties in any rotation moving forward.

by PinchHitLancePainter on Nov 5, 2009 7:08 AM MST reply actions   0 recs

I see now

that neutralizing Ryan Howard with a lefty could have swung the NLDS for us. Next year?

"It breaks your heart. It is designed to break your heart." - A. Bartlett Giamatti

by Rawktober on Nov 5, 2009 7:46 AM MST up reply actions   0 recs

Agreed, I like 2 solid lefties, DLR and Morales get my vote for next year

and of course if Morales doesn’t show up and Francis is healthy, we could deal w/ that too. But think about the future lefty combo of Friedrich and Matzek, now thats pretty exciting.

Rox, please start playing with heart! Let's finish this thing off!

by smokinRox on Nov 5, 2009 8:24 AM MST up reply actions   0 recs

I believed you, but still hoped that we'd be able to pull it off anyhow by merit of our depth and general team strength

Honestly, outside of bullpen issues, the Phillies were just the better team. They capitalized on all of our mistakes, and were able to mitigate damage in theirs.

How do you feel about DLR moving forward: Are you in the “Is it Good DLR or Bad DLR? We can’t trust him!” crowd, or are you in the “He made massive strides this year and should be a good #3 going forward” crowd? Or somewhere else? (I have observed that those are the two biggest opinion pools.)

Hope got in my eyes

by Andrew Martin on Nov 5, 2009 8:56 AM MST up reply actions   0 recs

I'm not sure I agree with this

I think the biggest difference was the bullpen issues you mentioned and less the Phils being the better team. (I think both teams were very enenly matched) For me the biggest difference was that Street was not the Street of the regular season and Lidge was not the Lidge of the regular season.

Game 3: Tied after 8 innings
Game 4: Rox had a two run lead after 8 innings

Those are the games the Rockies won at home all season long. That combined with not being able to start JDLR were the two biggest differences in my opinion.

I wonder if Bud Selig will give the Yankees a receipt with their World Series purchase

by RhodeIslandRoxfan on Nov 5, 2009 11:53 AM MST up reply actions   0 recs

fair enough

their situational hitting made up for it, so I guess we can’t just write that off to skill, as it’s kind of a random thing.

Let me put it this way. The Phillies won, and I’m not too bitter about it.

Hope got in my eyes

by Andrew Martin on Nov 5, 2009 12:05 PM MST up reply actions   0 recs

I am

I wonder if Bud Selig will give the Yankees a receipt with their World Series purchase

by RhodeIslandRoxfan on Nov 5, 2009 1:50 PM MST up reply actions   0 recs

Yeah but consider this

 Being 1-1 and coming home with JDLR or Jason Hamel. The odds of winning that game and the series were expontentially better. You have Ubaldo going in Game 4. We’ll never know.

by PinchHitLancePainter on Nov 5, 2009 5:57 PM MST up reply actions   0 recs

Yeah, it would've been Cook v Hamels in Philly for game 5

It’s an awful lot of “what if”s but I don’t for a second deny that DLR would’ve helped our situation a lot.

Hope got in my eyes

by Andrew Martin on Nov 5, 2009 6:24 PM MST up reply actions   0 recs

i agree it would have helped a lot to have dlr

But in the end, I can’t say he would have made the difference. After all, we are talking about about six innings turning around a 3-1 series. There’s no guaranteer dlr would have been great (the phillies got to him this year as much as anyone) and don’t forget the weather reall took the pitchers off of their game

"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein

by Andrew T. Fisher on Nov 6, 2009 1:08 PM MST via mobile up reply actions   0 recs

I love how people are mesmerized by De La Rosa’s 19 wins even though a good chunk of those were bail-outs by the Rockies bats.

The guy is a dud, throw him to the trash heap before he loses the Rockies another 20 games next year. The bats can’t bail him out every time he gives up 6 runs in 3 innings.

Bills fan? In Colorado? It's more likely than you think.

by UZ on Nov 7, 2009 12:57 PM MST reply actions   0 recs

I have not seen you here

Let me first say welcome to The Row.

As far as your comment is concerned I have to say that I strongly disagree with it. First of all De La Rosa won 19 games not 16. In those 16 games he won, JDLR’s ERA was 2.72. That means he got them by pitching really well and not just by getting huge run support from the Rockies offense. Did he get a lot of run support? Yes. Is his record inflated? maybe a little. Is he a dud? Not even close.

It’s also important to remember that JDLR’s 8 shoutout innings against the Giants on September 16th was the biggest start of the year by any Rockies pitcher. At that point the Rockies on the verge of being swept by the Giants for the second time in three weeks and seeing their Wild Card lead trimmed to one game in the loss column. Our Ace Ubaldo had one of his worst starts of the year the night before and JDLR came up huge and totally shut the Giants down. Dud pitchers don’t do that.

I wonder if Bud Selig will give the Yankees a receipt with their World Series purchase

by RhodeIslandRoxfan on Nov 8, 2009 1:25 AM MST up reply actions   0 recs

19 wins?

what?

Wins are the most flawed metric we have, man, I don’t think I stood on his wins as a source of value anywhere in this article.

Hope got in my eyes

by Andrew Martin on Nov 8, 2009 1:52 PM MST up reply actions   0 recs

oh and how many 3IP, 6ER games did he have

as compared to other #3 pitchers in baseball?

Hope got in my eyes

by Andrew Martin on Nov 8, 2009 1:52 PM MST up reply actions   0 recs

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