NL West in Review: 3rd Basemen

by Andrew T. Fisher on Nov 9, 2009 12:00 PM MST in NL West Report Comment 19 comments

David Zalubowski - AP

Atkins could soon be a teammate of the pitcher he just hit a home run off of in this picture: Cole Hamels. Maybe going ~~to a hitter's park~~ away could help ~~his career~~ the Rockies.

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You want to know where the Rockies lost the division in 2009? Don't look at Jorge de la Rosa's groin (please don't). Don't blame Clint Hurdle. Don't blame Canada. Don't look at the Rockies seemingly annual inability to beat one NL West team.

No - your culprit is the hot corner.

The Rockies were heavy favorites to outclass the NL West at third base going into the season. Garrett Atkins was projected to finally rebound while Ian Stewart was expected to exhibit growth. Either way, Colorado was sitting pretty. Brendan Scolari's preseason report had the Rockies way out in front at third base, totalling 5.5 WAR, with San Francisco second at just 2.3 WAR. Los Angeles was in a tie for last at just 2.0 WAR.

Part of that is misleading, as his projections gave the Rockies about 300 extra PA, so Colorado's lead over LA should been more in the neighborhood of 2.5 WAR. Instead, it was Los Angeles that trounced the Rockies by almost 3.5 WAR. There's a six game swing right there.


Teams	Players	Avg	HR	RBI	OBP	SLG	wOBA*	WAR
1. San Francisco	4	.313	26	92	.368	.532	.392	6.04
2. Los Angeles	6	.283	20	92	.356	.424	.353	4.95
3. Arizona	4	.247	39	90	.336	.487	.355	3.70
4. San Diego	5	.258	20	100	.314	.420	.331	3.19
5. Colorado	4	.223	22	77	.314	.386	.307	1.56

The third base position was comparatively very stable in 2009 for the division - only the Rockies failed to have a third baseman accrue 500+ PA.Your graphical plot of the RAR for all five teams, with the positional RAR set at +2.5:

Nlwest3b2009_medium

You might be surprised who comes out on top of the NL West rankings for third base. (Hint: this man is responsible).

There were 23 total third basemen, with the top five representing the main starters from each of the five teams. The complete rankings/stats can be viewed here, along with all the juicy math behind the numbers:

Rank	Player	Team	PA	Avg	HR	RBI	OBP	SLG	wOBA*	UZR	WAR
1	Casey Blake	LAD	557	.282	18	78	.365	.471	.362	8.0	4.00
2	Pablo Sandoval	SFG	512	.320	20	69	.377	.544	.401	-4.5	3.82
3	Mark Reynolds	AZ	554	.246	37	80	.339	.528	.375	-4.3	3.23
4	Kevin Kouzmanoff	SDP	571	.238	18	71	.303	.420	.325	7.7	2.62
5	Ian Stewart	COL	379	.225	15	41	.327	.420	.320	4.7	1.57
~	~	~	~	~	~	~	~	~	~	~	~
19	Chris Burke	SDP	3	.000	0	0	.000	.000	.000	-	-0.06
20	Josh Wilson	SDP	13	.154	0	0	.154	.231	.167	-	-0.10
21	Augie Ojeda	AZ	63	.182	1	4	.262	.291	.245	-4.1	-0.12
22	Edgar Gonzalez	SFG	15	.214	0	1	.267	.429	.284	-1.4	-0.13
23	Blake DeWitt	LAD	26	.200	0	2	.192	.280	.234	-0.6	-0.14

Arizona

2009 in Review

Mark Reynolds overcame all of his strikeouts to post the division's best home run and RBI totals, nearly doubling his nearest pursuer in the HR column. His poor fielding cost his team about half a win, but he is certainly a feared hitter in just his third season in the league. Augie Ojeda struggled in his 20 games, but Ryan Roberts and Chad Tracy helped the cause in their limited duty.

2010 in Preview

Reynolds is firmly planted as the full-time starter for the forseeable future, and the 26-year-old should only be getting better. He made just $423k last season and is due for a nice raise in arbitration.

Colorado

2009 in Review

All four Rockies who manned third base were actually below replacement value hitting-wise with park factors considered, a very disappointing showing considering the personnel in place. Ian Stewart failed to hit over two and a quarter, and his patented slugging could only match Kevin Kouzmanoff. Garrett Atkins' struggles are well documented, and while he was a below average fielder, I still calculate that he was a +0.34 WAR player at third (far from the 5.5 projected), likely due to a difference in park adjustments compared to Fangraphs.

2010 in Preview

Garrett Atkins will be gone and Ian Stewart has the job. As glum as this season was, it should provide Rockies fans with great hope for next season. Quite frankly, there's nowhere to go but up, and the potential is certainly there to make up that ground on the division. I believe Stewart can take that necessary step forward, especially with improved hitting against LHP, which he never had a problem with until 2009. Stewart made $404k last season, which will get a bump for next year. With Atkins leaving, Dan O'Dowd will probably look for a veteran bench bat who can also play third, perhaps a Mike Lamb.

Los Angeles

2009 in Review

Casey Blake is the surprise winner in the third base rankings led in large part by his 0.8 WAR defensive contribution, which could quite frankly be a fluke. He hasn't even been had a positive UZR at third base since his first year as a starter in Cleveland six seasons ago. He was very clearly an asset with the bat, as he provided more value to Los Angeles offensively than anyone not named Manny, Andre or Matt. Ronnie Belliard had a ridiculous .458 wOBA in his 38 September PA in Dodger blue.

2010 in Preview

Seven months ago, the Dodgers thought they might be eventually passing the torch from Blake to Blake (DeWitt), but Casey's emergence and DeWitt's regression makes that seem a little silly now. Blake is the clear full-time starter for at least next season, as he will be in the second year of his 3-year $17.5million deal.

San Diego

2009 in Review

Kevin Kouzmanoff nearly usurped Blake as the division's most valuable fielder at the five spot, which is all that saves him after regressing offensively once again in a San Diego uniform. Three Padres appear in the bottom five, but their negative contributions are so small that Chase Headley negated them six times over in 113 PA.

2010 in Preview

The 28-year-old Kouz is eligible for arbitration and looks to be the starter for next season. There won't be a free agent replacing the Colorado native due to financial constraints, but if he struggles more, look for Chase Headley to move back to his natural position, opening an outfield spot for an infusion of youth.

San Francisco

2009 in Review

Pablo Sandoval is clearly the best hitting third baseman in the division, or at least he was in 2009. The 23-year-old Venezuelan struggles with the glove (as you might expect with a novice scout's eye) more than any third baseman in the division, but his hitting production is mind-blowing considering the hurdles he has: no protection from Molina, age, moving positions, AT&T Park....The only reason he doesn't top this list is the 97 PA he spent manning first base.

2010 in Preview

Sandoval made just $402k last season, less than even Eugenio Velez. He'll get a nice raise and will be starting at third and hitting third Opening Day.

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Comments

Mark Reynolds

Appears to have missed super two status by about three days, so won’t be eligible for arbitration.

"Win, or die" -- Marquise de Merteuil

by Jim McLennan on Nov 9, 2009 12:33 PM MST reply actions 0 recs

wow, thats a big bummer for him

I had thought he made it. Thanks

"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein

by Andrew T. Fisher on Nov 9, 2009 12:36 PM MST via mobile up reply actions 0 recs

Because I've been curious about this for a while...

What does the purple “replacement” bar on the graphs mean?

Never give up, never surrender.

by coolopotamus on Nov 9, 2009 12:36 PM MST reply actions 0 recs

its essentially the value given to a player for being able to stay on the field

It is calculated as 20/600*PA. You can think of it as preventing the team from using a replacment player. Since the teams are comparable in PA at any one position, the replacement component will be nearly congruent for each team. In the first base article, I linked to a fangraphs artile explaining it in more depth

"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein

by Andrew T. Fisher on Nov 9, 2009 12:46 PM MST via mobile up reply actions 0 recs

Or, in other words...

(#PA/600) * 20

Eschew Obfuscation!

by Jeff Aberle on Nov 9, 2009 2:41 PM MST up reply actions 0 recs

That makes more conceptual sense

order of operations

"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein

by Andrew T. Fisher on Nov 9, 2009 9:10 PM MST up reply actions 0 recs

Don't you read my articles at all! Gosh. :p

Eschew Obfuscation!

by Jeff Aberle on Nov 9, 2009 2:40 PM MST up reply actions 0 recs

What is this I see

Oh, right a shameless plug. Okay.

Never give up, never surrender.

by coolopotamus on Nov 10, 2009 12:10 AM MST up reply actions 0 recs

I was so sad that Atty failed so hard this season, I always liked the guy.

Bills fan? In Colorado? It's more likely than you think.

by UZ on Nov 9, 2009 1:35 PM MST reply actions 0 recs

likewise, big fan favorite

he’d been on a downward slope the past couple of years

Hope got in my eyes

by Andrew Martin on Nov 9, 2009 1:39 PM MST up reply actions 0 recs

ahh the off season is in full out mode now

love baseball it is played in 3 different seasons and discussed in all 4!…let the off season moves begin!

we seem to have gotten over that HURDLE

thanks for a great season Rockies!

LETS GO WINGS!

by TuLoRocks2008 on Nov 9, 2009 3:14 PM MST reply actions 0 recs

No, not Mike Lamb. Please.

He can’ play 3B. He just occupies space there occasionally.

And he hasn’t hit the last 3 years.

If he can’t make it as a DH/PH on a low-budget team (Twins) in the AL, he doesn’t belong back in the NL.

by 6161Maris on Nov 9, 2009 3:17 PM MST reply actions 0 recs

i didnt say i wanted him either

But ygry might pursue him and that’s the type of guy we probably ought to expect. They aren’t going to go out and pay good money for a veteran. I could see Stewart’s backup being a NRI

"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein

by Andrew T. Fisher on Nov 9, 2009 3:23 PM MST via mobile up reply actions 0 recs

It's funny you bring up Lamb, as I actually know for a fact that the Rockies have talked with him about the possibility of an invitation to ST.

by WolfMarauder on Nov 9, 2009 4:04 PM MST up reply actions 0 recs

*can't

by 6161Maris on Nov 9, 2009 3:17 PM MST reply actions 0 recs

One thing that may have hurt the Rockies WAR at third base is the unusual HR splits by Ian Stewart

Despite playing most of his games at third base, Ian Stewart hit only 15 of his 25 HR’s when playing that position. I don’t know if it would have made much of a difference if the percentage of HR’s he hit at each position reflected the percentage of plate appearances he had at each position but it seemed like he was a little better than a 1.57 WAR. (Not much better but a little better) Fangraph has Ian Stewart at a 1.2 WAR for the season but that’s because it takes into account the defense he played when he started at second and in the outfield. He had a -55.6 UZR in the games he played at second and a -85 UZR in the games he played in the outfield. That would probably be more than enough to offset the ten HR’s he hit in limited plate apperances at those positions.

I don’t know if it would have made a difference but I think it’s worth considering. For instance, Stewart’s Slugging percentage for the season was .464 while it was only .420 in the games he played at third. That’s a pretty big difference due to unevenly distributed HR’s when playing at different positions.

I wonder if Bud Selig will give the Yankees a receipt with their World Series purchase

by RhodeIslandRoxfan on Nov 9, 2009 7:35 PM MST reply actions 0 recs

Wow

Augie was almost as bad at third as Mark was? That’s depressing.

Question, and I don’t remember if you covered it earlier- for a player like Josh Wilson, who switched teams mid-season (twice) are you using his stats for just the Padres, or just at third base in general?

"Spam headline: 'YOU ARE CHOSEN!' Oh, Morpheus, you're getting pretty lazy."
"Or they are informing you you are Jewish in a very lame conversion campaign."
"In either case, sending me spam is not the way to invite me to Zion."

by kishi on Nov 11, 2009 12:15 AM MST reply actions 0 recs

Josh wilsons stats are only for 3b and the padres

I separate by team and position, so I guess Wilson didn’t have an AB while playing third for AZ

"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein

by Andrew T. Fisher on Nov 11, 2009 7:56 AM MST via mobile up reply actions 0 recs

He didn’t play third with Arizona, but I know he played something like half a dozen games there with Seattle and I wasn’t sure where he played for the Padres, so I was just curious. Thanks.

by kishi on Nov 12, 2009 12:50 AM MST up reply actions 0 recs