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Righting the wrongs about Juan Rincon

Alright, it's a really slow period of the off season and before I get into a piece about how thoroughly amazing Carlos Gonzalez, Ian Stewart and Troy Tulowitzki are going to be for the Rockies in 2010, I thought I'd start by dipping my toes into a touchier subject: Juan Rincon.

Why Rincon? Well, you can see why by doing a search of the site here using the word "Rincon". The guy just doesn't get any affection at all from Rockies fans, and I think that is somewhat of an injustice. A minor one, sure, but still, the guy simply isn't as bad for the team as many of you are under the impression of and this post will hopefully help you figure that out. Now you might think I'm biting off more than I can chew by defending a pitcher with a 7.52 ERA for the Rockies, but hear me out.

Let me start with the main impetus of this post, well, besides the fact that you guys just don't seem to appreciate him, which would be this.

That's right, Rincon was the only significant Rockies reliever to not allow any of his inherited runners to score, and not only that, he led the National League by having the most inherited runners without allowing any to touch home plate (fair disclosure: as a Tiger early in the season, Rincon did allow his one inherited runner to score, but that doesn't count in the NL stats). Let me just reiterate, when it came to helping out his fellow Rockies pitchers not get their ERA inflated by having those 19 runners they were responsible for letting get on base score, Rincon was perfect

The combined run expectancies for the situations Rincon came in for the Rockies with runners on base was about 7.3 runs. This is what they could expect had they gone to any Joe Average NL reliever instead of the guy that was money in the bank when it came to watching their backs. That's seven plus runs that could have gone on somebody's permanent record, but didn't and that's all thanks to Juan Rincon. 

Now, as a low leverage reliever, Rincon was no saint, and he left his share of baserunners as well. In fact, he left messes adding up to 7.86 expected runs with just 14 baserunners. This is where I think  a lot of the ire from Rockies fans comes in. Seeing him hand the ball over to Jim Tracy with the bases loaded and nobody out isn't the best way to make an impression on fans. Here's the thing though, while Rincon would come into messy situations and help his fellow pitchers out, other Rockies bullpen pitchers apparently didn't feel much inclined to assist Rincon. Opponents didn't just score the expected eight runs off the Rockies in those situations, instead 11 of the 14 baserunners that Rincon had left ended up crossing home plate. Countryman Franklin Morales was especially unkind, twice coming in after Rincon left the bases loaded and twice allowing all three runners to score (note to Tracy: Morales and bases loaded situations = very bad). 

Compared to the average NL pitcher, Rincon saved other Rockies pitchers around seven runs. He got screwed over by them for just over three. If you were somehow able to take that combined 10 from his 22 total allowed, his ERA would be 4.10; not too shabby for a middle guy. But no, Rincon's the schmuck that takes the fall for everybody else while saving their tails at the same time. 

Despite being signed to a minor league contract with a NRI, I think as long as he's healthy and as decent as he has been for most of his career, I believe it's somewhat inevitable that Juan Rincon sees time in a Rockies uniform in 2010. My hope is that we don't get quite so many groans and FanPosts lamenting the coming apocalypse, but instead can be a little more level-headed. One more Rincon fact to consider before I get off the high horse:

In 2009, the ERA's of 24 of the top 25 pitchers (20 IP or more) when it came to batting average against ranged from Mike Adams' 0.73 to Edinson Volquez's 4.35. In general, when pitchers don't allow a lot of hits, they don't allow a lot of runs. You probably already know who the exception was. The two ways to take that are 1) Rincon's ERA in 2009 probably should have been a lot lower, or 2) his BAA in 2010 will probably be a lot higher. One's very true, two's probably at least somewhat true also, though. I'm not going into 2010 with a lot of expectations for Rincon other than to say that he's a solid add to our bullpen depth, and not the pariah that many make him out to be.

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A reverse rifle musket argument.

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by Russ Oates on Dec 28, 2009 4:01 PM MST via mobile reply actions   0 recs

This is a terrible article for fans

Every fan needs a whipping boy to dump all the problems of the team on. The journeyman reliever with the high ERA is always the easiest target. You’re taking away fans’ collective passion ire passion.

"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein

by Andrew T. Fisher on Dec 28, 2009 4:25 PM MST reply actions   0 recs

we still have Randy Flores...

Purple Row: Take this personally
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by Andrew Martin on Dec 28, 2009 4:29 PM MST up reply actions   0 recs

Point

"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein

by Andrew T. Fisher on Dec 28, 2009 4:38 PM MST up reply actions   0 recs

Hmm.. I accept your conversion story as accurate..

but before I am baptized into your Rincon Religion answer me this.

Can Rincon continue his “perfection” if his SO/BB stays at 1.25? He has similar numbers last year to Contreras except the ERA’s were vastly different.

Rincon: 1.44 WHIP, 8.5 SO/9, 7.52 ERA
Contreras: 1.65 WHIP, 9.0 SO/9, 1.59 ERA

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by Charlie77 on Dec 28, 2009 4:35 PM MST reply actions   0 recs

yeah that K/BB is pretty atrocious

I personally wouldn’t look at that runners stranded number and take much out of it going forward.

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by Andrew Martin on Dec 28, 2009 4:39 PM MST up reply actions   0 recs

You probably can't take much out of that K/BB number going forward, either

seeing as it was out of whack with the rest of his career. I’d expect both to normalize toward average in 2010 (as well as the inherited runners he left to others) but the net result still should have him with a much improved ERA.

by Rox Girl on Dec 28, 2009 4:44 PM MST up reply actions   0 recs

Well his K/9 is impressive..

but his BB/9 was atrocious. Fortunately it’s twice as high as his career average. His H/9 was lower than Huston Street’s.

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by Charlie77 on Dec 28, 2009 4:56 PM MST up reply actions   0 recs

Why hit when he'll just walk you?

Seriously though I’d be interested to see his OPSa. I’m mobile else I’d just look it up.

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by Andrew Martin on Dec 28, 2009 5:04 PM MST via mobile up reply actions   0 recs

Interestingly enough his OPS against was .680 for COL

..and even more interesting look at the difference by catcher:

Iannetta .553
Torrealba .677
Phillips 1.833 (in only 1 game though)

Doesn’t Rincon know that Torrealba works better with Latino pitchers, especially ones from his home country of Venezuela?

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by Charlie77 on Dec 28, 2009 10:38 PM MST up reply actions   0 recs

hahaha that comes out funny

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by Andrew Martin on Dec 29, 2009 9:27 AM MST up reply actions   0 recs

Agree on both counts

But rincon appears to have been more or less a one trick pony, in his success in stranding runners, so to hope he’s some sort of wizard with runners on is a claim best left for George Frazier. Granted, none of us are making said claim, but at the risk of misleading someone in the thought that Rincon is like the clutchest of the clutch, I figured I’d point out the obvious.

A thought sprung to mind about rincon’s strandtastic performances, that if we had seen the trend earlier, we’d have put him in to clear
the jam and then let morales start the subsequent inning. Tracy seemed to operate under a “ehhhh he has one more inning” mindset with the mopup/lowlev guys, which is pretty much what they’re there for, obv, but that’s part of the whole rincon’s-era-was-so-high-John-Glenn-said-damn! Thing that the article’s about.

Clearly a tough balance as it pertains to the leash.

Purple Row: Take this personally
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by Andrew Martin on Dec 28, 2009 5:01 PM MST via mobile up reply actions   0 recs

I tried to keep where I wrote about what to expect from the future in 2010

and where I wrote about what value he actually gave for the Rockies in 2009 (which has to include that fantastic run of not allowing inherited runners to score) somewhat separate.

I guess what I was trying to say was: “Hey, Rincon didn’t suck nearly as much as you guys keep on saying he sucked and here’s why (he was superman with inherited runners), and oh by the way he also won’t be sucking next season (he was unlucky as all get out when it came to inherited runners on the other side as well as with just baserunners scoring in general).”

by Rox Girl on Dec 28, 2009 5:12 PM MST up reply actions   0 recs

When

he does suck in 2010, we’ll have the post-revisionist argument.

NEVER SURRENDER DREAMS

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by Russ Oates on Dec 28, 2009 5:27 PM MST via mobile up reply actions   0 recs

We never do anything like that.

Wait, was that statement itself post-revisionist? Damn.

by Rox Girl on Dec 28, 2009 5:48 PM MST up reply actions   0 recs

It was the

new post-revisionist argument, or maybe the new old post-revisionist argument. Labels get crazy.

NEVER SURRENDER DREAMS

Purple Row - Covering all your Rockies needs!
Diplomatic and Military History Book Review - My other blog where I go all historical on you.

by Russ Oates on Dec 28, 2009 5:58 PM MST via mobile up reply actions   0 recs

It was post-post-revisionist

Watching the purple row from high atop the big brown monolith on California Ave

by Mondogarage on Dec 28, 2009 8:29 PM MST up reply actions   0 recs

and I completely agree

you pretty much took the Counting Rocks article about pitching with runners on base and did a fine job of translating from WPA to ….well, a well phrased article

I was just adding thoughts while on the bus.

Purple Row: Take this personally
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by Andrew Martin on Dec 28, 2009 6:09 PM MST up reply actions   0 recs

I'm not a Rincon hater

he gave some good innings when the bully was falling apart. That said, he seems like the classic “don’t push it” guy…when he scrapes out of a tough spot, DO NOT send him back out next inning. Don’t get greedy with this guy. Take what you can get and get on with the next dude.

by Teekalong on Dec 28, 2009 4:57 PM MST reply actions   0 recs

This stat counters your argument..

When Rincon throws pitches 1-25 his OPS against was .807
When Rincon throws 26-50 his OPS against was .457

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by Charlie77 on Dec 28, 2009 10:41 PM MST up reply actions   0 recs

Stripped of any sort of context whatsoever

I’m not sure those numbers mean anything at all. RG’s stats show that at least no inherited runners got over on him, how about his own based on how long he was in the game?

by Teekalong on Dec 28, 2009 11:38 PM MST up reply actions   0 recs

It probably just shows..

that it takes him a while to find his spot, and he’s walking a lot of batters early in his outings. Maybe he needs to warmup longer before coming into the game?

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by Charlie77 on Dec 29, 2009 11:47 AM MST up reply actions   0 recs

Maybe he should just be allowed to pitch with inheirited runners on base. Get out of the inning and then take a shower.

People ask me what I do in winter when there's no baseball. I'll tell you what I do. I stare out the window and wait for spring. ~Rogers Hornsby

by pedalpusher on Dec 28, 2009 5:19 PM MST reply actions   0 recs

if it gets us to the playoffs

then I see no problems with this

JFK

by jrockies on Dec 28, 2009 5:46 PM MST up reply actions   0 recs

Three Rockies on that list of guys with the lowest BAA...

and two of them were Rincon and his twin brother, Josh Fogg.

Wild.

Just an average guy with exceptional hair. Nothing more, nothing less.

by Bryan Kilpatrick on Dec 28, 2009 8:03 PM MST reply actions   0 recs

FOUR, actually...

…missed Raffy the first time.

Just an average guy with exceptional hair. Nothing more, nothing less.

by Bryan Kilpatrick on Dec 28, 2009 8:04 PM MST up reply actions   0 recs

I'll admit every single time Rincon stepped on the mound I was "ugghhh"ing.

But this article made me see him in a better light :) Thanks RG!

Lol but seriously he’s not that good. He throws two pitches, neither of them special. Can never come into a close game because he WILL blow it. I only see him as a mopup guy in 2010..well yeah which is what he better be. I was a little disgusted seeing him resigned but whatever…bullpen depth is a necessity and hopefully he won’t give me a heart attack every time he’s on the mound. I doubt that though.

Remember old folks, I'm just 17 years old =]

by GoRockies!! on Dec 28, 2009 10:55 PM MST reply actions   0 recs

You can count me in as one of the guys who holds his breath with Rincon on the mound...

…but with that said, I’m much more nervous when Morales is out there. And, judging by his Venezuelan Winter League peripherals, that may not change anytime soon:

Check out that K/BB ratio :(

Just an average guy with exceptional hair. Nothing more, nothing less.

by Bryan Kilpatrick on Dec 29, 2009 7:01 AM MST up reply actions   0 recs

Small Sample Size

Oh who am I kidding; there’s no defending that.

I wonder if Bud Selig will give the Yankees a receipt with their World Series purchase

by RhodeIslandRoxfan on Dec 29, 2009 8:58 AM MST up reply actions   0 recs

ffffffffffffffffffffffffff

trade

Purple Row: Take this personally
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by Andrew Martin on Dec 29, 2009 9:28 AM MST up reply actions   0 recs

I'm not ready to give up on him just yet

He’s still just 23. I don’t want him in any meaningful situations this season though.

I wonder if Bud Selig will give the Yankees a receipt with their World Series purchase

by RhodeIslandRoxfan on Dec 29, 2009 9:47 AM MST up reply actions   0 recs

It's not so much give up on him

but he’s got all that raw prospect value or whatever, I figure there could be a good return on him, and I’m tired of him being a liability. Yes, he had some good stretches. He had some miserable ones as well

Purple Row: Take this personally
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by Andrew Martin on Dec 29, 2009 10:11 AM MST up reply actions   0 recs

You can't make me like Rincon

Helluva effort though

Hot stove leads to panda porn

by Rawktober on Dec 29, 2009 7:35 AM MST reply actions   0 recs

Maybe next week RG

can try to convince us all why Hawpe will win a Gold glove next year. She’d make a good defense lawyer.

I wonder if Bud Selig will give the Yankees a receipt with their World Series purchase

by RhodeIslandRoxfan on Dec 29, 2009 9:01 AM MST up reply actions   0 recs

easy pickins

Just trade him to Texas so he could he their DH

"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein

by Andrew T. Fisher on Dec 29, 2009 9:56 AM MST via mobile up reply actions   0 recs

For Ian Kinsler? :-)

I wonder if Bud Selig will give the Yankees a receipt with their World Series purchase

by RhodeIslandRoxfan on Dec 29, 2009 9:58 AM MST up reply actions   0 recs

Purple Row: Take this personally
http://www.youtube.com/user/rockiesmagicnumber

by Andrew Martin on Dec 29, 2009 10:15 AM MST up reply actions   0 recs

If Hawpe hits 40 HRs this season he will win the GG.

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by Charlie77 on Dec 29, 2009 11:48 AM MST up reply actions   0 recs

Another thing with Rincon

is that a lot of his numbers came in situations that didn’t matter. 108 of the 165 plate appearances (about 65%) against him came in situations where the margin in the game was four runs or greater. Tight ballgames are a very different animal than blowouts.

I wonder if Bud Selig will give the Yankees a receipt with their World Series purchase

by RhodeIslandRoxfan on Dec 29, 2009 9:05 AM MST reply actions   0 recs

That's one thing that I was thinking about but forgot to mention,

6 of the 10 situations where Rincon came in with runners on board were with the score either tied or within one run. In only one of those six situations did he leave the game with the Rockies in a worse position than when he came in. In situations where he came in to start an inning or with the bases clear and the score either tied or within a run, he wasn’t nearly as effective, however, as the situation deteriorated 3 out of 5 times. In all, there were eleven situations where he was used with either the score tied or the Rockies ahead or down by one and he was an effective bridge seven times, he botched the job four times.

Looking around the NL, right around 2/3 seems to be a bit better than average when it comes to relievers of last resort in a team’s bullpen protecting leads or ties. The competitive teams tended to be right around that ratio with the Dodgers having a pretty strong advantage on everybody else.

by Rox Girl on Dec 29, 2009 10:04 AM MST up reply actions   0 recs

this is where the wpa thing fits in
And the scariest point of all: Juan Rincon doesn’t allow inherited runners to cross home plate. Period.

So here’s the skinny. Rincon is scarily good at cleaning up somebody else’s messes. But with no mess to clean, he makes his own. Beimel does the same thing.

Some combination of Morales/Daley, Betancourt, and Street should be our closing staff. They should also be brought in for a clean inning, none of this “oh hey there are 2 guys on and nobody out” nonsense.

Rincon WPA during situations where he’s brought in with runners on: 0.54. He’s a -0.2 when he gets the clean slate.

Purple Row: Take this personally
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by Andrew Martin on Dec 29, 2009 10:18 AM MST up reply actions   0 recs

So your saying we should have brought Rincon in to face Howard? :-)

I wonder if Bud Selig will give the Yankees a receipt with their World Series purchase

by RhodeIslandRoxfan on Dec 29, 2009 10:30 AM MST up reply actions   0 recs

OMG....O_O

/shakes head…

Dear Rockies-Thank you for a wonderful rollercoaster season! Best turnaround in MLB history to become NL Wild Card Champs.

Garrett Atkins-So Long, Farewell, Auf weidersehen, Goodbye!! You were a great Rockie! GOOD LUCK!
Troy Tulowitzki-MLB's BEST shortstop..nuff said
Yorvit Torrealba- Re-sign!! he's en Fuego!!
Brad Hawpe- I hope I get to see you in a Rockies uniform again!
Dexter Fowler - prowling CF, WC in his talons, leaping Utleys in a single bound!

by SDcat09 on Dec 29, 2009 10:38 AM MST up reply actions   0 recs

I wonder if Bud Selig will give the Yankees a receipt with their World Series purchase

by RhodeIslandRoxfan on Dec 29, 2009 11:46 AM MST up reply actions   0 recs

lol...

Dear Rockies-Thank you for a wonderful rollercoaster season! Best turnaround in MLB history to become NL Wild Card Champs.

Garrett Atkins-So Long, Farewell, Auf weidersehen, Goodbye!! You were a great Rockie! GOOD LUCK!
Troy Tulowitzki-MLB's BEST shortstop..nuff said
Yorvit Torrealba- Re-sign!! he's en Fuego!!
Brad Hawpe- I hope I get to see you in a Rockies uniform again!
Dexter Fowler - prowling CF, WC in his talons, leaping Utleys in a single bound!

by SDcat09 on Dec 29, 2009 12:17 PM MST up reply actions   0 recs

SO YOU'RE TELLING ME THERE'S A CHANCE

Purple Row: Take this personally
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by Andrew Martin on Dec 29, 2009 12:17 PM MST up reply actions   0 recs

Rurple Pow

Purple Row: Take this personally
http://www.youtube.com/user/rockiesmagicnumber

by Andrew Martin on Dec 29, 2009 12:17 PM MST up reply actions   0 recs

How many days till Spring Training?

It’s only December & we’re already debating in depth the pluses and minuses of Juan Rincon. What’s left for Jan. – Feb.?

Maybe … “Kip Wells — does he have one more comeback left in him?”
or “Shawn Chacon — do the Newark Bears need him in their rotation?”
or “Russ Ortiz — can he do more for us in 2010 than in ’09?”

This offseason seems to be moving really slowly.

New decade, new result: time for a Rockies' division championship.

by Maris6161 on Dec 29, 2009 12:02 PM MST reply actions   0 recs

While Holliday, Bay, Damon, and Hudson still have to go somewhere

I wonder if Bud Selig will give the Yankees a receipt with their World Series purchase

by RhodeIslandRoxfan on Dec 29, 2009 12:05 PM MST up reply actions   0 recs

Thankfully for you, I see this as just a warm-up for me

but the direction will probably be from posts on Rincon to those on more important players rather than from Rincon to less important guys.

by Rox Girl on Dec 29, 2009 12:08 PM MST up reply actions   0 recs

Like Hawpe and his gold glove

I wonder if Bud Selig will give the Yankees a receipt with their World Series purchase

by RhodeIslandRoxfan on Dec 29, 2009 12:26 PM MST up reply actions   0 recs

I'm just thankful

that we haven’t had a deep insightful FanShot linking to his BBR page and the linker’s great commentary kind of ending at “SEE? SEE? THIS GUY SUCKZ”

Purple Row: Take this personally
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by Andrew Martin on Dec 29, 2009 12:18 PM MST up reply actions   0 recs

Playing with fire here.

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by Russ Oates on Dec 29, 2009 8:15 PM MST up reply actions   0 recs

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