Thursday Rockpile: Five to Shine; A rundown of the NRI's

by Rox Girl on Feb 12, 2009 8:49 AM MST in Rockpile

Tracy Ringolsby picked five Colorado Rockies that need to shine if the team wants to be competitive this season, a couple of his choices make some sense to me, a couple of them kind of make me wince and beg, "Please, oh please don't let this season come down to Clint Hurdle, thank you."

My own list would look like this:

Tulo
Helton
Jorge De La Rosa - what would have been a luxury with a Francis rebound becomes a necessity now that it looks like he's out.
Chris Iannetta - The Rockies don't have a lot of hope if CDI's 2008 wasn't for real and he can't be a top 5 NL catcher on offense.
Dexter Fowler - Morales or Greg Smith are good choices too, but if Fowler shines, our lineup suddenly becomes complete and achieves a state of Zen.

Mark Townsend at Bugs and Cranks posted a solid rundown of what's at stake for our NRI's.

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What if

you replace Fowler with Atkins? I’m all for Atkins shining so we can get his good production and get a good trade package out of him. I guess there’s a caveat in that if he shines really really bright, but Stewart stumbles, the the organization may not deal him…

by Resolution on Feb 12, 2009 9:23 AM MST reply actions

Not to beat the dead horse

but I’m pretty sure everyone’s convinced he’s on the trade block, and will be gone come the deadline.

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by Andrew Martin on Feb 12, 2009 9:27 AM MST up reply actions

yea

but I’m just saying, he needs to shine on the trade block. cmon, shiny trade block, it’s perfect….

by Resolution on Feb 12, 2009 11:53 AM MST up reply actions

I like the way you think

and I’d like to subscribe to your newsletter

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by Andrew Martin on Feb 12, 2009 12:01 PM MST up reply actions

hah

I’d sure hate to be the “Impson” family!

by Resolution on Feb 12, 2009 10:41 PM MST up reply actions

hum...my 5 needed for the Rockies to shine would be:

1) George of the Rose – He needs to be outstanding like he was for most of 08. If he regresses, then 09 may be a lost season
2) Atkins/Hawpe – One of these 2 needs to step up to be the hitter that can carry the team. Both have done it for periods in the past..just not a whole year. Both are seemingly starting the back side of their careers too.
3) Tulo – Time for the hype to end and the player to live up to the chant and not end up being the next Bubba Crosby or Kelhali Greene
4) Helton – He has to contribute with the bat. No MLB club can be successful with a non-productive 1st baseman.
5) Fowler/CarGo – one of these needs to be a major leaguer for the line up to really work.

I didn’t include iannetta, as he needs to stay solid. As a catcher any offense he gives is just bonus.

"Suck it monkeys, the Rockies will win this year", Rox Girl 1-11-2009

by Redhawk on Feb 12, 2009 9:24 AM MST reply actions

Dude...

Just call him DLR. You’re killing me here smalls.

Hawpe can’t step up much more. He’s already an .875+ OPS hitter, with a solid eye and good power.

The rest is kind of obvious.

I keep feeling like everyone’s selling Seth Smith short still. He might just end up being a solid producing OF.

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by Andrew Martin on Feb 12, 2009 9:28 AM MST up reply actions

Why give a man 3 initials, when you could give him 4?

by onholliday on Feb 12, 2009 9:53 AM MST up reply actions

Indeed

JDLR is the best abbr for the LHP, IMO.

http://twitter.com/blakebomber

by BlakeBomber on Feb 12, 2009 9:54 AM MST up reply actions

I just meant

“Yeah we get it George of the Rose agggggggggggggg”

It’s clever, but let’s not beat our good jokes TOO hard into the ground, shall we?

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by Andrew Martin on Feb 12, 2009 11:40 AM MST up reply actions

I dunno

I started thinking of him as George of the Rose after Redhawk (or whoever) started this last year. I say keep on. JDLR is fine for the masses.

by Teekalong on Feb 12, 2009 12:24 PM MST up reply actions

for the record

Jorge De La Rosa in English is George of the Rose. I’m not trying to make a joke, I’m just using his name…in English

"Suck it monkeys, the Rockies will win this year", Rox Girl 1-11-2009

by Redhawk on Feb 12, 2009 12:27 PM MST up reply actions

Yeah

got it big guy.

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by Andrew Martin on Feb 12, 2009 12:28 PM MST up reply actions

haha

I’m really just messing around. Yeah, it’s still annoying, but I’m not really saying CHANGE HOW YOU POST

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by Andrew Martin on Feb 12, 2009 12:28 PM MST up reply actions

I just don't think we have enough offense otherwise to let Iannetta slide

Our outfield is only okay offensively, our infield lacks power, particularly at the corners, and there’s a hole at second. I think without Holliday, the team will need to get more from the up the middle positions. Unless you’re counting on Barmes/Baker for that, I don’t think we’ve got much opportunity if Iannetta doesn’t come through again.

by Rox Girl on Feb 12, 2009 10:00 AM MST up reply actions

Great list

Mine mine be a little different on the back end.

1. Tulo – Without a doubt it will be a huge boon to the team if he can start strong and maintain through the whole season. Tulo has the chance to be the glue this year and when he is on top of his game, I don’t believe there is any better SS in the League.

2. Helton – Not quite as much pressure here with Atkins and Stewart as very solid backup plans, but a full recovery would be a fantastic surprise and would really help us offensively. It would also give us the opportunity to trade Atkins for some solid pitching or decent prospects at least.

3. Ubaldo – I know everybody has him pegged as “a sure thing” (myself included), but he battled a lot of inconsistency last season and we will need him to be the pitcher he has shown that he can be. I think Cook as a good pitcher, but we really need Ubaldo to step up this year and firmly establish himself as the #1 guy in the rotation with consistency.

4. JDLR – 100% agree here especially with Francis looking like he won’t be a piece of the puzzle this season.

5. The OF – This could be CarGon, Fowler, Seth Smith, or even Ian Stewart. The most questions seem to be centered around who can step up and solidify the CF and LF spots. I can’t imagine an enormous amount of success this year with the platoon approach all year long. Someone needs to step up and claim those spots.

JMHO…

by BaronBill on Feb 12, 2009 9:30 AM MST reply actions

I want to add

6) 2B. Whoever it is. Be good.

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by Andrew Martin on Feb 12, 2009 9:32 AM MST reply actions

Orlando Hudson

Anyone?

http://twitter.com/blakebomber

by BlakeBomber on Feb 12, 2009 9:34 AM MST up reply actions

AHHHHHHHHHHHHHH

In Colorado, Dan O’Dowd can’t hear you scream

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by Andrew Martin on Feb 12, 2009 9:36 AM MST up reply actions

Holliday/Hudson

If people were upset at losing the possibility of two draft picks (in place of Street/Smith/Gonzeles) when Holliday was traded, then I’d imagine they’d be pissed at losing a first round pick for one or two years of Hudson.

I’d rather trade to get Kaz Matsui back, since Houston has payroll problems and second base prospects. He’d probably only cost a C prospect instead of a first rounder, would be cheaper, and is familiar with the Rockies.

by deacs on Feb 12, 2009 9:49 AM MST up reply actions

We wouldn't

Our 1st round pick is protected, we’d only lose a 2nd.

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by Andrew Martin on Feb 12, 2009 9:50 AM MST up reply actions

Still..

I stand by the point. A second round pick and $6-7M for Hudson is too much when there’s similar talent out there by trade for less.

Hudson’s defensive decline should have people concerned they’d be getting David Eckstein at second. Not that some people wouldn’t like that.

by deacs on Feb 12, 2009 9:55 AM MST up reply actions

I'm gonna reply to this under BlakeBomber's comment

I want to respond to both with STATS

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by Andrew Martin on Feb 12, 2009 10:00 AM MST up reply actions

I don't think people

would be so upset about losing a draft pick if it brings in someone they can root for. They’re only pissed about the draft picks for Holliday because he’s gone and they need extra things to be really upset about.

No super opposed to the idea of bring Kaz back, but I do think he’s a little injury prone… but that’s not any real different then Hudson.

http://twitter.com/blakebomber

by BlakeBomber on Feb 12, 2009 9:53 AM MST up reply actions

2nd Rnd Pick

Thought i’d chime in. With the Rockies having 3 picks already in the top 35, I don’t think losing the # 50 pick will be a severe blow. I also have never gotten the impression that any fans or local media was up in arms about losing the two draft picks from trading Holliday. People were mad about losing Holliday himself.
I will agree with deacs on Hudson’s declining defense though.

by Hizilla on Feb 12, 2009 10:21 AM MST up reply actions

Actually

I would not be opposed to trading for Kaz. I loved Kaz. I think he was a big missing ingredient from last year.

"Suck it monkeys, the Rockies will win this year", Rox Girl 1-11-2009

by Redhawk on Feb 12, 2009 10:20 AM MST up reply actions

How is Kaz's back problem?

by pedalpusher on Feb 12, 2009 2:29 PM MST up reply actions

Well, it depends on where you place your value

Check out these numbers for ODwag, Kaz, and Barmes

Name -AVG - wOBA - BABIP - BRAA - FRAA - WARP
Orlando Hudson 06 .287 - .346 - .311 - 5 - 16 - 6.9
Orlando Hudson 07 .294 - .361 - .338 - 11 - 15 - 6.9
Orlando Hudson 08 .305 - .358 - .344 - 9 - 11 - 5.9
Kaz Matsui 06 .267 - .306 - .320 - 5 - 3 - 1.7
Kaz Matsui 07 .288 - .341 - .338 - 0 - 17 - 5.0
Kaz Matsui 08 .293 - .349 - .329 - 9 - (-11) - 3.2
Clint Barmes 06 .220 - .254 - .346 - (-33) - 1 - (-0.5)
Clint Barmes 07 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Clint Barmes 08 .290 - .344 - .329 - 2 - 1 - 4

Basically it’s saying that ODawg is the best batter, best fielder, and worth up to 3 wins over Barmes, and 2 wins over Kaz Matsui.

How much money is 2 wins worth to you? It’s worth plenty for me to bench Barmes. Barmes is a “good” glove, but I think we’ve all just kind of overstated his glove so we could rationalize why he’s playing regularly.

Defensively, if Kaz is healthy, he’s better than anyone else we have. Offensively, I don’t think I’d count on him for better than Average. Also, if we’re gonna pay his salary, why not just pay Hudson? He’s better and would cost less than the value he’d add over Kaz.

Barmes is like the epitome of an average player. He’s awesome when he finds a hot streak, and he’s defensively competent.

I don’t know, I can’t move past the thought that Hudson is the best option here.

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by Andrew Martin on Feb 12, 2009 10:31 AM MST up reply actions 1 recs

Oh right translation

(BRAA = Batting Runs Above Average, FRAA = Fielding Runs Above Average, WARP = Wins Above Replacement Player, wOBA = Weighted On Base Average)

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by Andrew Martin on Feb 12, 2009 10:32 AM MST up reply actions

Nice job

It might not be fair to include Kaz’s ‘08 numbers due to the anal fissures and the back problems. Otherwise, I think it’s pretty close between Kaz and Hudson statistically. Fangraph’s UZR/150 rates Matsui’s 07 defense much higher than Hudson’s. It’s even higher in ‘08 despite the injuries. Hudson does have a longer track record of better results; ’07 was really Matsui’s only good MLB season. But Hudson also has a noticeable rate of decline greater than Matsui, while being an equal or greater injury risk.

I just don’t think Hudson will be the difference between competing and not competing, which is why I don’t think the money and the draft pick are worth it. I’d much rather either a) save the draft pick and trade a middling prospect for Kaz, or b) save the money for a mid-season pickup (or an ’10 signing) if the Rockies are in contention and play Barmes.

For perspective, here are some players drafted from picks 50-75, 2003-2006:
2003: Josh Banks, Ryan Sweeney (A’s), Jerry Owens, Scott Baker, Jason Hirsh, Andre Ethier
2004: Seth Smith, Brian Bixler (SS, Pirates, Billy Buckner, Curtis Thigpen (C, Blue Jays), Anthony Swarzak (P, Twins), Hunter Pense, Dustin Pedroia
2005: Chase Headley, Kevin Slowey, Yunel Escobar, Nick Hundley
2006: Jeff Locke (P, Braves), Justin Masterson

Not that you were devaluaing the pick, but the more 1st and 2nd round picks the better. Especially second round, where some bargains (cost, injury, discipline, experience) can be picked up.

by deacs on Feb 12, 2009 4:11 PM MST up reply actions

I agree

But remember Hudson was hurt in 08 as well. WARP is a counting stat, not a rate stat, so it’s only going to tell you what a player DID over the course of the season. Both missed time. ODawg played 107G, Kaz 96. Both did well for only playing 2/3 of a season.

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by Andrew Martin on Feb 12, 2009 4:17 PM MST up reply actions

Thanks for the numbers on this

I was going to go look them up, but I haven’t had much free time this morning.

http://twitter.com/blakebomber

by BlakeBomber on Feb 12, 2009 11:32 AM MST up reply actions

Rockies in the Onion

According to The Onion, once you remove the steroid cheats, the best players of the last decade are all current (Glendon Rusch), or former (Craig Counsell, Quentin McCracken) Rockies.

by S-Train on Feb 12, 2009 10:01 AM MST reply actions

Is anyone else confused by this?

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by Andrew Martin on Feb 12, 2009 2:14 PM MST reply actions

Ah, found him

I googled him earlier and must’ve spelled the name wrong, because I couldn’t find ANYTHING on him.

But, with proper spelling, there he is.

But seriously, why him?

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by Andrew Martin on Feb 12, 2009 2:15 PM MST up reply actions

cool for Jeff for getting the endorsement deal, though

Minor leaguers really don’t make very much.

by Rox Girl on Feb 12, 2009 2:54 PM MST up reply actions

I don't know, something tells me...

he’s not benefitting financially from this endorsment. It’s just something in his eyes… or rather, down and to the left of his eyes.

Staying on the sunny side of Blake Street since 1993.
MHCSports - Denver sports analysis from Denver sports fans

by Franchise26 on Feb 12, 2009 3:00 PM MST up reply actions

Also

That is the first time I have ever seen a picture of Jeff Dragicevich.

Staying on the sunny side of Blake Street since 1993.
MHCSports - Denver sports analysis from Denver sports fans

by Franchise26 on Feb 12, 2009 3:00 PM MST up reply actions

Nice pickup...

The line reads, “Not a paid endorsement.”

So you’re probably right. Not saying that others can’t read, just no one else read the fine print maybe?

Keepin' warm by the hot stove season.

by Charlie77 on Feb 12, 2009 3:11 PM MST up reply actions

I'm personally wondering

What’s the asterisk by “Try It Free!*” mean? I thought “free” was pretty self-explanatory. Or is this the industry’s idea of a “free trial”… you know, it’s “free” but we need your credit card number anyway so that when your “free trial” is up we go ahead and charge your credit card anyway even though you hate our product and don’t really want it any more.

by Tom (RFTN) on Feb 12, 2009 4:11 PM MST up reply actions

I'm guessing

the “free” is in reference to this being a free country. The MSRP on this is probably 20$

by Resolution on Feb 12, 2009 10:23 PM MST up reply actions

Huh... "Not a paid endorsement"...

Yeah… as you can see from my too brief RP post and missing stuff that’s PRINTED RIGHT THERE ROX GIRL YOU MORON, that I’ve been somewhat distracted the last couple of days by outside projects. I should be back to my only slightly less embarrassing and unobservant self this weekend.

by Rox Girl on Feb 13, 2009 11:02 AM MST up reply actions

Errrr.....

good luck with that?

By the way, the AZSnakepit does not take responsibility for, nor condone, any alcohol-related accidents or injuries incurred, directly or indirectly, as a result of reading this website.

by DbacksSkins on Feb 13, 2009 9:07 PM MST up reply actions