Sunday Rockpile
by Rox Girl on Feb 15, 2009 8:56 AM MST
in Rockpile
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PrintPatrick Saunders caught up with Ubaldo Jimenez and stirs the pot a bit by making it sound as if he may be unprepared for the season.
A few days before departing for spring training, Ubaldo Jimenez seemed a million miles away from baseball.
"I'm just enjoying all my time with my family and friends," Jimenez said in a telephone interview last week... "We've been going out to eat every night, going to the movies, and going to the beach. I feel good, I feel loose."
Of course, Saunders goes on to mention that Jimenez has been pitching this winter, notably with Licey in the Dominican Winter League playoffs, and pitching well. People who read too much into the first part of the story will come away with the impression that he's out of shape and unready, which I don't know if that was Saunders intention or not, but you could see it already happening with the comments to the story. The Rockies were 1-11 in Jimenez' first dozen starts last season, 14-8 in the rest. If you take away his early starts against the San Francisco Giants, it appears the turnaround against actual MLB worthy lineups came on June 21 vs. the Mets, from which he went 11-5 with a 3.38 ERA for the rest of the season.
Jason Hirsh has 200 IP as a goal for this season, which of course means he's preparing to make the rotation out of Spring Training. My current thought is that he has the second best chance aside from Greg Smith to take that fifth starter slot in lieu of Jeff Francis, but neither he nor Smith represent the best case scenario from a fans' standpoint. That would lie with Franklin Morales. So I root for Hirsh to be as good as he can be, but that would be kind of like getting your second choice prom dress because the first proved out of a viable price range or just didn't fit right. It's still going to be a happy occasion, but you would be left to wonder what might have been.
Troy Renck says that Todd Helton has to lead by example when it comes to Spring drills. The Rockies should have motivation to get off to the quick start that everybody can tell is necessary. It seems at the very least that the hunger to return to the playoffs will push them. The question that will remain unanswered for the next three months will be whether they have the talent to do so. The record of the team on May 15th should tell us a lot about what kind of summer it's going to be.
A couple of Huston Street items of note, first be sure to check out the interview with Street from OnTheRox's FanPost, but also there's an AP story about his expectations heading into the season at the Rocky Mountain News.
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I like Hirsh
He’s just rarely been completely healthy since his first semester in Colorado. If he were to get consistent starts and health, I couldn’t complain with him in the rotation. But as far as him winning a rotation spot… would 20 innings in Spring ball be enough to wipe the slate clean from 2008? For me, no. Same with Franklin Morales.
"Winning doesn't really matter as long as you win." - Vinny Jones
by Andrew T. Fisher on Feb 15, 2009 9:17 AM MST reply actions
Since Hirsh is out of options
I fully expect him to make a rotation some where this year.
"Suck it monkeys, the Rockies will win this year", Rox Girl 1-11-2009
You must have missed Jabberwocky's column Thursday, or at least the comments to it
Hirsh still has an option.
yep
sorry I guess Hirsch has options.
"Suck it monkeys, the Rockies will win this year", Rox Girl 1-11-2009
HIRSH
HIRSH HIRSH HIRSH HIRSH HIRSH HIRSH HIRSH HIRSH HIRSH HIRSH HIRSH
HIRSH
you and hizilla!
HIRSH HIRSH HIRSH HIRSH HIRSH
Follow me on Twitter! http://www.twitter.com/rockiesmagicnum
by Andrew Martin on Feb 15, 2009 3:54 PM MST up reply actions
So.......whadda tryin to say?
it’s not MY fault he doesn’t know how to spell his own name
"Suck it monkeys, the Rockies will win this year", Rox Girl 1-11-2009
And Rox Girl in her Prom Dress
"Suck it monkeys, the Rockies will win this year", Rox Girl 1-11-2009
I noticed you didn't say "Evil" twin
which would make YOU the evil twin
"Suck it monkeys, the Rockies will win this year", Rox Girl 1-11-2009
I take it you're trolling for a GIMPing
Follow me on Twitter! http://www.twitter.com/rockiesmagicnum
by Andrew Martin on Feb 15, 2009 3:54 PM MST up reply actions
You gonna hit her
with your GIMP hand?
By the way, the AZSnakepit does not take responsibility for, nor condone, any alcohol-related accidents or injuries incurred, directly or indirectly, as a result of reading this website.
I recognize that,
but I have no idea from where/when.
By the way, the AZSnakepit does not take responsibility for, nor condone, any alcohol-related accidents or injuries incurred, directly or indirectly, as a result of reading this website.
Bjork
At the 2001 Academy Awards. She was nominated for Best Song. Don’t remember if she won or not. Or even what the song or film was for that matter.
I cannot say whether things will get better if we change; what I can say is they must change if they are to get better. -Georg C. Lichtenberg:
Ah.
I thought it was Bjork, in the back of my head, but honestly, I’m not sure what a Bjork usually looks like, so I wasn’t sure.
By the way, the AZSnakepit does not take responsibility for, nor condone, any alcohol-related accidents or injuries incurred, directly or indirectly, as a result of reading this website.
It looks like...
A ripoff from the Ancient Mariner with a dead cursed crane hanging from her neck.
Keepin' warm by the hot stove season.
That sounds
positively terrifying.
We are truly in the presense of greatness here…-- unnamedDBacksfan
Hirsh and De La Rosa
If Morales has turned the corner like it appears he has done in winter ball and some of the reports I have seen, then the 5th spot could come down to Hirsh and De La Rosa. JDLR definatly has the edge considering the Rockies have already named him as the 4th starter in a rotation that does not include Francis. However, both of them will get their shot in spring training. I like JDLR, but he let’s a little adversity (runners on or a solo home run) get in his head and he tends to fold. He has the arm and the “stuff” to be really good. The question is does he have what it takes between his ears? I could see Jorge or Hirsh as a long releaver who can step up to the starting rotation if need be.
There is a lot of compition in the rotation this year which is a great. In my opinion here are the top 3 options. Keep in mind, I have a gut feeling that F. Morales is going to light it up in Spring Training and have a break out year in 2009. (A guy can hope right?)
Assuming Francis is not ready.
A. Cook, U. Jimenez, J. Marquis, F. Morales, J. De La Rosa or
A. Cook, U. Jimenez, J. Marquis, J. De La Rosa, J. Hirsh
Assuming Francis is ready. (I doubt it, but again a guy can hope)
A. Cook, J. Francis, U. Jimenez, J. Marquis, F. Morales: (damn, that is a good looking rotation)
However, I do the the Rockies are going to give Smith a really hard look. If Street locks down the closer or set up spot and Smith has a solid year it will make loosing Holliday a little easier to swallow. Also, G. Reynolds may make some noise and never count out the dragon slayer.
Just because a guy does not make the opening day rotation does not mean he will not make an impact on the team this year. Last year injuries and inconsestancy doomed the starting rotation. This year they have a lot more depth to deal with situations like that. I can’t wait for baseball to get started!!!
What if the hokey pokey is what it is all about after all????
I think you're overly optimistic on Morales
no way the organization tosses him in the rotation yet. Too many questions still. AAA for him.
Follow me on Twitter! http://www.twitter.com/rockiesmagicnum
by Andrew Martin on Feb 15, 2009 1:03 PM MST up reply actions
I do find it interesting
that Morales is dismissed after 1 tough season, even with a half season where he was very good, yet Hirsh is given the benefit of the doubt when he has not proven anything more in the big leagues. I would also argue that Morales came w/ more minor league hype and a higher upside. While I think its true that the rotation is hard to figure at this point, I am trying to understand why 1 season has moved Morales from a guy w/ potentially top of the rotation talent to someone who most fans seem to be giving up on. I just think we don’t know how much his back may have factored in last year, and Venezuela is a good sign.
Answers to your quiries
For one, Hirsh won back to back minor league pitcher of the year awards. He might not have had as much upside as Morales, but he had plenty of minor league hype.
Morales had 8 starts in 2007 – Hirsh had 19 pitching through two injuries.
Hirsh is older and more polished. Morales was near the league leaders in balks in 2008 despite not getting a single start after April.
Tying in with the last point, Morales needs to tighten up the mechanics that ruined his 2008 campaign.
I really don’t think fans are giving up on Frankie, especially after his Winter Ball showing. We might be a bit bitter after his ridiculously exaggerated fall from grace, but the guy’s only 22. His time will come – we don’t have to rush him prematurely.
"Winning doesn't really matter as long as you win." - Vinny Jones
by Andrew T. Fisher on Feb 15, 2009 10:51 PM MST up reply actions
We're all selling Hirsh a little short it would seem
But at the same time, it’s not as if he’s produced yet in the majors.
I want to roll the clock back to 2007. He’d just come off of 2 minor league PotY awards, and was projected to be better than Jason Jennings.
He’d always been a bit wild, a 3.3 BB/9, but a 7.2 K/9 and a miniscule 0.6 HR/9. Not a groundballer, but not an extreme FB pitcher either.
Things that have fallen off since he’s been in the majors:
BB/9 jumped from 3.3=>4.0
K/9 dropped from 7.2=>6.0
Based on those two, he’s still a viable back end starter. But there’s more
H/9 went from 7.9=>9.0
HR/9 from 0.6=>1.7
That means he’s giving up 3 TIMES more dingers in the majors than he did in the minors. 3 TIMES
Now here’s the thing. You don’t pitch 584 2/3 innings with a 0.6 HR/9 and then just suddenly show up in Coors Field and suddenly you’re Paul Byrd. Even in AAA Springs and its higher altitude, he only gave up 1.4 HR/9. Hardly good, but it’s not freaking 1.7.
If you remember 2007 before Rocktober, Hirsh was learning to trust his fastball and not just throwing breaking stuff, or at least that was what Apodaca was working on with him.
I’d wager that this is all in his head. He’s making location mistakes, he’s trying to locate and throw, and he’s not really pitching.
Is Hirsh a waste? I sincerely doubt it, and I get the impression he fits in really well with the clubhouse (based on nothing more than him being in silly ads and always catching the first pitch of the game and such), so it’d be a shame for him to be a loss to waivers.
Dude’s got the upside of like a 7.5 K/9, 3.5 BB/9, 0.8 HR/9. If he can pull it together, this rotation just got even better.
Follow me on Twitter! http://www.twitter.com/rockiesmagicnum
Projection
It’s interesting looking at the Marcel and CHONE projections for Hirsch – they are not even remotely close to each other. CHONE sees him making 22 starts, but not pitching particularly well in them. I think that if his FIP is 5.58 there is no way he sees that many starts. Marcel is a little more optimistic, but only sees him pitching 70 innings – from the pen maybe? Interesting to see how this plays out.
Can’t believe that the first ST game is in 10 days.
Don't put much stock in Marcel
It’s really not based on anything real, even on Tango’s site, he says it’s all just mathematical weighting.
Follow me on Twitter! http://www.twitter.com/rockiesmagicnum
by Andrew Martin on Feb 15, 2009 3:34 PM MST up reply actions
Too many (pitchers other than) Cooks spoil the broth?
In a dream scenario, what would we do with above-average performances from all of our we’re-taking-a-chance pitchers?
Assume that Cook, Ubaldo start strong, which isn’t a huge leap of faith. Then assume Francis is injury-free and pitches well, de la Rosa and Morales live up to their potential, and Hirsh, Smith, and Marquis pitch like #4 starters. What would we do?
I think that no matter happens in Spring Training, Morales and Hirsh will start the season in AAA. If both Smith and Marquis pitch well in ST, I think Marquis will get the nod. Then our rotation would look like:
1. Cook
2. Jimenez
3. Francis
4. De la Rosa
5. Marquis
I’m curious how we’d handle good performances in AAA if this were the case. Of course, this is completely unrealistic, but it’s fun to imagine. Now I’ll wake up from my dream and go about the rest of my day.
YOU CAN NEVER HAVE TOO MUCH GOOD STARTING PITCHING
That has been proven countless times.
Then assume Francis is injury-free and pitches well
That is a really big assumption. I haven’t seen anything to suggest risking that optimistic thought.
"Winning doesn't really matter as long as you win." - Vinny Jones
by Andrew T. Fisher on Feb 15, 2009 3:09 PM MST up reply actions
of course
If having too many good pitchers is your biggest problem, you’re doing well. I’m just playing around with hypotheticals. A more realistic scenario is that we have a lot of mediocre pitchers in the back of rotation and AAA, and we have to make decisions between them.
Healthy AND ready
The odds of Francis being healthy AND ready at the start of the season are close to zero in my estimation.
The Row rules on SI.com
I had noticed that over at SI’s MLB page, our daily Rockpile was the featured lead to the Rockies page over there. (Scroll down to the team page area.) After a couple of days, I started really paying attention. Purple Row has now been the featured lead for dang near two weeks now. Just thought this worth mentioning, since we all know that the Row rules, and finally SI has caught on to that. Thanks to all who make this place great!
I cannot say whether things will get better if we change; what I can say is they must change if they are to get better. -Georg C. Lichtenberg:
Oh My God
My article is linked from Sports Illustrated.
Follow me on Twitter! http://www.twitter.com/rockiesmagicnum
by Andrew Martin on Feb 15, 2009 4:31 PM MST up reply actions
Well there is a certain protocol for linking,
but since there is no intent to serve up the content as their own, no laws are violated. It’s only offered as an informational choice for their readers.
(Copyright laws being part of my job, I have a head full of this kind of minutiae.)
I cannot say whether things will get better if we change; what I can say is they must change if they are to get better. -Georg C. Lichtenberg:
I was gonna say...
if they’re linking to published newspaper stories, I don’t understand why they wouldn’t be able to link to blogs.
By the way, the AZSnakepit does not take responsibility for, nor condone, any alcohol-related accidents or injuries incurred, directly or indirectly, as a result of reading this website.
And you deserve it
Although my tired old brain is too feeble to comprehend all the stats you present, I’m able to get the gist of them through your cogent analysis. I may actually understand some of that stuff if you keep it up.
On second thought, I can’t even balance my checkbook, so I’m probably hopeless.
I cannot say whether things will get better if we change; what I can say is they must change if they are to get better. -Georg C. Lichtenberg:
The Snakepit
leads off the Dbacks site, too.
Actually, Jon Weisman’s now-defunct blog watch column at SI is how I first arrived at the ’Pit.
By the way, the AZSnakepit does not take responsibility for, nor condone, any alcohol-related accidents or injuries incurred, directly or indirectly, as a result of reading this website.
Hate to burst your bubble,
but this isn’t new. Ever since SI changed its look back in early 2007, they’ve been linking to the Row and to our entries. Also, the RMN has a link to the Row, but we’re still “the internets” or “rumor on the internet has it . . .” to the DP.
"If we never try, we shall never succeed." - Abraham Lincoln
Purple Row - Covering all your Rockies needs!
I just can't seem to take
anything you say seriously with your new avatar.
http://twitter.com/blakebomber
Every party has it's pooper
Actually, I knew that SI had linked to PR for a while now. But it’s only recently that I noticed them leading their teasers with the Rockpile rather than the Post or RMN coverage.
Meanwhile, some of us still think it’s pretty exciting.
I cannot say whether things will get better if we change; what I can say is they must change if they are to get better. -Georg C. Lichtenberg:
I'm not easily excited.
"If we never try, we shall never succeed." - Abraham Lincoln
Purple Row - Covering all your Rockies needs!
That's cool
I don’t visit SI’s site & the only section of the RMN I visit is Win, Lose & Drew’s blog so I didn’t know about the RMN linking this site on their’s. It’s also cool to see you guys linked my Colorado Rockies Fans LJ community here under the “Other Colorado Rockies forums/discussions” section. =) We’re also on MySpace too if anyone has a MySpace account. :P
"It's funny, Todd would be the guy jumpin' around and Tulo would be the guy tryin' to calm everybody down." -Jeff Francis
I'm on Twitter: http://twitter.com/Rocktober2007 & MLBlogs: http://rocktober-2007.mlblogs.com
Maintainer of the Colorado Rockies Fans LJ Community: http://corockiesfans.livejournal.com
by Rocktober 2007 on Feb 15, 2009 10:13 PM MST up reply actions
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