Breaking Down the Rotation - #3 - Jason Marquis

by Andrew Martin on Feb 18, 2009 4:56 PM MST in Counting Rocks

Sorry about the late post today, folks! Enjoy!

Coming into the 2009 season, the big question on every team's minds is who's gonna fill out their rotation. Well, I guess, except for the Yankees. Colorado feels like they have a good, deep rotation, comprised of homegrown players, trades, and the occasional free agent. This week we'll be looking into who I feel the Rockies #3 start will be.

Jason Marquis

#21 / Pitcher / Colorado Rockies

Height: 6-1

Weight: 210

Bats: L

Throws: R

Born: Aug 21, 1978

The Rockies acquired Marquis a while back in exchange for Luis Vizcaino. Good trade, in my opinion. We are spending more on Marquis than we'd like, but what we traded for was a breath of consistency. Vizcaino, while putting up excellent K rates and passable BB rates, let the ball fly out of the park as if it was late for a meeting.

What we got for Mr. Vizcaino was Jason Marquis, a much maligned starter who has spent his career between Atlanta, St. Louis, and Chicago. Marquis is a reputable inning-eater, and has a career history of being incredibly average.

You might think that the elements of pitching such as K/9, BB/9, HR/9, etc, make Vizcaino a better pitcher than Marquis. Obviously, a starting pitcher is more valuable than a relief pitcher, but that aside, I feel that the big difference is in, and I shudder to say it, the Intangibles. Consistency, specifically. Vizcaino's 1st/2nd half splits were very off the wall, but you can attribute that to injury and such. But anecdotally speaking, he had about a month of lockdown pitching, and the other outings were BB, BB, BB, 2B8, 3 runs score, etc. It was hard to depend on him, so at least getting a good, consistent SP is a move in the right direction, right?

Well let's take a look.

Marquis has pitched upwards of 190 innings in 4 of his past 5 seasons, and started 32 games also in 4 of the past 5. He only managed 167 IP over 28 starts in 2008, however. He missed at least 1 start with the flu. (If someone has more on that, I'd like to see it) Thing is, it seems any missed starts weren't to pitching-related injury. Which is a good thing.

So here's the thing with Marquis. His 2008 and career numbers are all below average. Not horribly below average, but just low enough that he's a slightly below average pitcher. In fact, his career ERA+ (which is a park-adjusted measure of ERA vs League ERA, where 100=Average) is about 96.

	ERA	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	WHIP	FIP
Career	4.55	5.33	3.53	1.18	1.42	4.99
2008	4.53	4.90	3.77	0.81	1.45	4.50
League 2008	4.30	6.99	3.77	1.02	1.39	4.29

So you can see that he's a bit below average. Nothing mindblowing, but he's at least right in line with his career numbers.

Marquis is kind of a vanilla pitcher. None of his splits are especially interesting in either direction, like DLR, and none of his pitching is absurdly favorable towards home or road. For his career, he's been a bit better on the road, and a bit better in the 1st half. The only really interesting split is that his April ERA is 4.15, and in May it's 4.02. This is promising at least for the Rockies, who, as we've discussed, do poorly in April. It's not fantastic, but he has a shot at helping the team get off to a good start. Pretty Average.

Now comes the issue of consistency. What do we define as consistency? Well, his season ERAs haven't wavered TOOO much from his 4.55 career ERA (excepting 2006), and he's put up a solid amount of innings each season. Marquis is the kind of pitcher we'd hope can just come out and give you the same kind of performance each outing, even if it isn't the flashiest.

Over the last 5 years, he's made 158 starts, amassing 952 2/3 innings during those starts (I intentionally pulled out the numbers when he came in relief). That's 190.52 innings per season. I think it's safe to say he'll be an inning eater. He looks alright if you just look at his season stats, but what should we expect to see when he takes the mound for us every 5th game?

I ran all of his starts over the past 5 years through a nice big spreadsheet, and got the following numbers.

Per start, Jason Marquis is good for 6IP, allowing 6H, 3ER, 1.34 HR, 3BB, and he'll punch out 3. Over his career, 49% of his starts have been Quality Starts (6IP, 3ER, or better). That is Jason Marquis. Decent control, passable stuff, and a career 48% GB. Prettty average.

What is the range of Marquis' starts though? How good does he get? The below table lists all the averages, and their standard deviations.

	IP	H	ER	HR	BB	K
Average	6.06	6.31	3.06	1.34	2.89	3.13
StDev	1.41	2.23	2.26	1.33	1.83	1.56

Basically this is saying that for about 70% of Marquis' starts, he will give you between 4 2/3 innings and 7 1/3 innings, allowing 1-5 ER.

To compare, Brandon Webb, a notably consistent starter, will give between 5 2/3 and 8 1/3 innings (mean of 6.9 IP and StDev of 1.27IP). More consistent than Marquis, that's for sure, but not by a horrible margin. About half an out.

You might comment on how his ER, HR, BB, and K have Standard Deviations that are very high, and suggest that he's actually an inconsistent pitcher. To respond, Brandon Webb's deviations were similar, even worse in some cases. When I say I have a consistent starter, I mean that he'll give you X many innings of passable baseball, give the bullpen a bit of a break, etc. (What do you guys consider as "consistent"? Good point for discussion.)

Baseball Reference finds Marquis to be most similar to Gil Meche, which isn't an awful comparison. His career ERA+ of 102 and Marquis' 96 both hover around that 100 mark for Average.

Another comparison that I hate to make is 2007 Josh Fogg, with better home run control.

That all said, it looks like Marquis stacks in up in the "consistent" category. Nothing too great, nothing too awful, pretty regular outing.

	G	GS	W	L	IP	SO	BB	K/BB	HR/9	K/9	BB/9	WHIP	BABIP	FIP	xERA
Bill James	29	27	9	10	167	94	65	1.45	1.19	5.07	3.50	1.43	.287	5.05
CHONE	29	29	8	10	167	92	68	1.35	1.08	4.96	3.66	1.52	.305	5.04
Marcel			10	9	162	96	66	1.45	1.00	5.33	3.67	1.43	..291	4.78
RMN	30	30	9	8	177	96	73	1.30	0.94	4.90	3.71	1.50	.299	4.74	4.71

To wrap up Marquis, he seemingly has the same upside that Josh Fogg did when he first came to the Rockies. Decent inning-eating potential with an effective sinker. However, Marquis has a pretty solid bat as well. Maybe that will counteract Baldo's non-existent one.

My projections seem just a shade more optimistic than do the others, and I think that has more to do with the good dinger control he's displayed over the past 2 seasons.

Marquis, once again, is nothing special, I'm afraid. He's very average. But sometimes average is what you need.

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Comments

Here's to hoping

Marquis is one of those “contract year” guys.

by Resolution on Feb 18, 2009 6:15 PM MST reply actions

No kidding

I’d love to have an “average” pitcher at the back end of the rotation…but #3?

"Winning doesn't really matter as long as you win." - Vinny Jones

by Andrew T. Fisher on Feb 18, 2009 6:47 PM MST up reply actions

With DLR and Smith not being known commodities

It’s good to have some stability between Jimenez and DLR.

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by Andrew Martin on Feb 18, 2009 8:50 PM MST up reply actions

By the way

it tickles me that you found a way to compare Marquis to Webb.

"Winning doesn't really matter as long as you win." - Vinny Jones

by Andrew T. Fisher on Feb 18, 2009 6:48 PM MST reply actions

you take what you can get

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by Andrew Martin on Feb 18, 2009 8:48 PM MST up reply actions

I suppose

along the same lines, Chad Tracy isn’t horrible compared to Todd Helton.

We are truly in the presense of greatness here…-- unnamedDBacksfan

by DbacksSkins on Feb 19, 2009 10:40 AM MST up reply actions

Marquis is our #3?

PLEASE MORALES PULL YOUR **** TOGETHER

by purplesocks on Feb 18, 2009 8:19 PM MST reply actions

Just as you

don’t win friends with salad, you don’t win the World Series with average.

"If we never try, we shall never succeed." - Abraham Lincoln

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by Russ Oates on Feb 18, 2009 9:12 PM MST reply actions

Average may get us into the Playoffs this year...

81 wins may be enough, or close to enough.

Keepin' warm by the hot stove season.

by Charlie77 on Feb 18, 2009 9:20 PM MST up reply actions

Ah, but

getting into the playoffs and winning the World Series are still two different things. Probably going to need lightning in a bottle to win the World Series if the Rockies make it into the playoffs with 81 wins. And no, lightning in a bottle isn’t that. . . .

"If we never try, we shall never succeed." - Abraham Lincoln

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by Russ Oates on Feb 18, 2009 9:24 PM MST up reply actions

We made the WS with a rotation that included Mark Redman.

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by Andrew Martin on Feb 18, 2009 9:52 PM MST up reply actions

Who's below average.

Still didn’t win the World Series, however. Just trying to say that the ordinary need to become extraordinary, something alluded to in the first (not necessarily in those exact words).

"If we never try, we shall never succeed." - Abraham Lincoln

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by Russ Oates on Feb 18, 2009 10:03 PM MST up reply actions

marquis can help us get off to a good start

and then just be dependably average the rest of the season.

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by Andrew Martin on Feb 18, 2009 10:40 PM MST up reply actions

We can make the WS with Marquis in the rotation

just not as our #3….hopefully some young studs will step it up

"Winning doesn't really matter as long as you win." - Vinny Jones

by Andrew T. Fisher on Feb 18, 2009 10:01 PM MST up reply actions

Agreed

Beyond the irrational thinking here that this team can reach the WS, there’s no way the rotation is at its best with Marquis in the 3rd slot. He won’t win 10 games there. Heck, RMN just explained to us all that Marquis is below average. Below average pitchers don’t win many games, especially pitching 3rd, unless given a little help.

If the thinking is correct that the top 4 starters are Cookie, UBall, JDLR and Marquis, then Jason will bring a bigger bang for the buck in the number 4 position. He has a better chance at winning at least 10 games there. AND if he does win that amount, or hopefully even in the 12-14 game range, then he might net the Rox an unexpected reward by being a Type B free agent next winter.

JDLR slots in nicer in the 3rd spot anyway since he is a lefty.

by roxhead on Feb 18, 2009 11:55 PM MST up reply actions

I don't care if Marquis goes 0-0

As long as the team wins when he pitches.

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by Andrew Martin on Feb 19, 2009 12:06 AM MST up reply actions

I couldn't agree more

Just keep the team in the game until the offense can remove the other starter and have a field day with their bullpen.

"A great catch is like watching girls go by; the last one you see is always the prettiest." ~Bob Gibson
JFK

by jrockies on Feb 19, 2009 12:07 AM MST up reply actions

Of course..

But I’m not sure what your point is.

Heck, I’m sure the Yankees could care less if CC goes 0-0 also.. as long as they win when he pitches.

Wrong…

He’ll get massacred in the press because a pitcher’s worth is measured by the W/L stat.

by roxhead on Feb 19, 2009 1:16 AM MST up reply actions

Who gives a good rat's ass about the press?

Yeah, they’re the ones that determine how good a pitcher is. And no World Series talk can possibly be irrational on February 19th… otherwise what’s Spring Training good for? The time for ‘rational talk’ is June and July.

Staying on the sunny side of Blake Street since 1993.
MHCSports - Denver sports analysis from Denver sports fans

by Franchise26 on Feb 19, 2009 6:30 AM MST up reply actions

My point is that I don't care how many wins Marquis gets

Wins are meaningless anyhow. They involved too many factors, like run support and bullpen and such. The fact that position in a rotation can affect a “statistic” that’s supposed to be telling of a pitcher’s skill tells me it’s bupkis.

I want to see him put up 180+ innings with a 4.50 or better ERA. I could seriously not care less about the rest of his game. He’s a boring pitcher.

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by Andrew Martin on Feb 19, 2009 9:17 AM MST up reply actions

I know it's vogue to trash traditional stats, but.....

A pitchers wins represent the fact that he has pitched beyond the 5th inning and placed the team in a position to and ultimately win the game. And I know you are going to bring up stats like quality starts and so forth, but they don’t represent the total impact a player had on the game. I’m talking about things other than numbers. Josh Fogg was compared to Marquis, well in 2007 Fogg was a big reason the Rocks made it to the WS, look at the Play in Game as an example. He gave up runs, but he battled and kept the team in the game. In 2007 Fogg’s stat line was 10 wins and 4.94 ERA, Marquis’ stat line averaged over the past two years is 11.5 wins and 4.57 ERA.

Keepin' warm by the hot stove season.

by Charlie77 on Feb 19, 2009 10:18 AM MST up reply actions

Wins aren't TOTALLY meaningless

I agree they can represent the tendency for a pitcher to battle through a bad outing for an ugly win vs folding, but it’s still not a greatly important metric compared to what else we have.

"Winning doesn't really matter as long as you win." - Vinny Jones

by Andrew T. Fisher on Feb 19, 2009 11:01 AM MST up reply actions

An argument for wins being pretty much totally meaningless

And yes, I know, sample size….I just wanted an excuse to post this line:

IP: 211.2
Hits: 154
ERA: 2.76 (led league)
K: 270 (led league)
BB: 87

W-L Record: 8 wins, 16 losses

A .333 winning percentage for someone who was otherwise clearly the best pitcher in the league that year.

Watching the purple row from high atop the big brown monolith on California Ave

by Mondogarage on Feb 19, 2009 1:58 PM MST up reply actions

Lemme guess....

Randy Johnson, circa 2004?

We are truly in the presense of greatness here…-- unnamedDBacksfan

by DbacksSkins on Feb 19, 2009 3:27 PM MST up reply actions

Nope.

We are truly in the presense of greatness here…-- unnamedDBacksfan

by DbacksSkins on Feb 19, 2009 3:31 PM MST up reply actions

Oh crap...

Duh, that’s a famous line.

We are truly in the presense of greatness here…-- unnamedDBacksfan

by DbacksSkins on Feb 19, 2009 3:31 PM MST up reply actions

Counterargument...

Taking out the random outlier, here is the top 5 winningest pitchers since 2000 along with their ERA and Games Started Rank . Would you consider their wins as meaningless stat, not indicative of their overall ranking?
1. R Oswalt HOU….112-3.07-8th
2. M Buehrle CWS..107-3.80-1st
3. M Mussina NYY..103-3.95-6th
4. R Halladay TOR.102-3.62-9th
5. Barry Zito OAK….102-3.55-3rd

Keepin' warm by the hot stove season.

by Charlie77 on Feb 19, 2009 7:13 PM MST up reply actions

Pitchers in 2008 who have more than 10 wins

And are therefore better than Jake Peavy

PLAYER TEAM W
Johan Santana NYM 16
Cliff Lee CLE 22
Tim Lincecum SFO 18
CC Sabathia CLE/MIL 17
Roy Halladay TOR 20
Daisuke Matsuzaka BOS 18
Ryan Dempster CHC 17
Ben Sheets MIL 13
Cole Hamels PHI 14
Chad Billingsley LAD 16
Jon Lester BOS 16
Edinson Volquez CIN 17
Derek Lowe LAD 14
Brandon Webb ARI 22
John Danks CHW 12
Dan Haren ARI 16
Mike Mussina NYY 20
Joe Saunders LAA 17
Scott Baker MIN 11
Zack Greinke KAN 13
Ervin Santana LAA 16
Ricky Nolasco FLA 15
Roy Oswalt HOU 17
James Shields TAM 14
Jesse Litsch TOR 13
Jair Jurrjens ATL 13
Matt Garza TAM 11
Todd Wellemeyer STL 13
Jamie Moyer PHI 16
Mike Pelfrey NYM 13
Armando Galarraga DET 13
John Lackey LAA 12
Kyle Lohse STL 15
Mark Buehrle CHW 15
Gavin Floyd CHW 17
Carlos Zambrano CHC 14
Randy Johnson ARI 11
Aaron Cook COL 16
Gil Meche KAN 14
Ubaldo Jimenez COL 12
Josh Beckett BOS 12
Nick Blackburn MIN 11
A.J. Burnett TOR 18
Ted Lilly CHC 17
Braden Looper STL 12
Randy Wolf HOU/SDG 12
Jered Weaver LAA 11
Andy Sonnanstine TAM 13
Edwin Jackson TAM 14
Jason Marquis CHC 11
Andy Pettitte NYY 14
Paul Byrd BOS/CLE 11
Javier Vazquez CHW 12
Vicente Padilla TEX 14
Bronson Arroyo CIN 15
Justin Verlander DET 11
Jon Garland LAA 14
Livan Hernandez MIN/COL 13

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by Andrew Martin on Feb 20, 2009 9:37 AM MST up reply actions

Cherry picking are we?

There are plenty of good players on that list as well as a couple lucky ones. However one season is too small a sample size to prove your point.

Keepin' warm by the hot stove season.

by Charlie77 on Feb 20, 2009 12:19 PM MST up reply actions

Oh I know

But don’t make me start citing Livan Hernandez.

Because God help me I will.

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by Andrew Martin on Feb 20, 2009 2:12 PM MST up reply actions

Outliers! Outliers!!

Keepin' warm by the hot stove season.

by Charlie77 on Feb 20, 2009 8:06 PM MST up reply actions

Pitchers in 2008 who have an ERA <2.85

And are therefore better than Jake Peavy

Johan Santana NYM 2.53
Cliff Lee CLE 2.54
Tim Lincecum SFO 2.62
CC Sabathia CLE/MIL 2.7
Roy Halladay TOR 2.78

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by Andrew Martin on Feb 20, 2009 9:44 AM MST up reply actions

Bending stats to fit your hypothesis..

Peavy ERA 2008
Road-4.28
Home-1.74

Peavy was great at home, not so much when sleeping at a Holliday Inn Express. You were in such a hurry to throw Rockies pitchers under the bus for pitching in Coors then you completely ignore Petco Park’s effect on a pitcher.

Keepin' warm by the hot stove season.

by Charlie77 on Feb 20, 2009 12:26 PM MST up reply actions

dude I'm at work

I’m wasting enough time already

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by Andrew Martin on Feb 20, 2009 2:13 PM MST up reply actions

+1

For wasting time at work. I still have a few hours left before I get off.

Keepin' warm by the hot stove season.

by Charlie77 on Feb 20, 2009 8:07 PM MST up reply actions

and I bent no stats

I reported them as they were

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by Andrew Martin on Feb 20, 2009 2:13 PM MST up reply actions

Pitchers in 2008 who have an OPS against of <.645

And are therefore better than Jake Peavy

Cliff Lee CLE .633
Tim Lincecum SFO .612
CC Sabathia CLE/MIL .625
Roy Halladay TOR .621
Ryan Dempster CHC .642
Derek Lowe LAD .637
Brandon Webb ARI .636

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by Andrew Martin on Feb 20, 2009 10:15 AM MST up reply actions

2008 not a Career year for Peavy..

In 7 years as a starting pitcher Ole Jake had a forgettable performance in 2008. So to say Peavy’s season should be disregarded based on Won/Loss is a tough argument because the 08 season was one of Peavy’s worst.

K/BB-3rd worst (Career 3.09 vs 2.81 in 08, and 3.53 in 07)
BB/9-3rd worst (Career 2.90 vs 3.06 in 08, and 2.74 in 07)
Ks/9-3rd worst (Career 8.96 vs 8.60 in 08, and 9.67 in 07)
H/9-3rd best (Career 7.77 vs 7.57 in 08, and 6.81 in 07)

Keepin' warm by the hot stove season.

by Charlie77 on Feb 20, 2009 12:38 PM MST up reply actions

you're right

it was bad so it doesn’t count.

Who’s bending stats NOW?

I just picked Peavy arbitrarily anyhow. After I posted those I remember he was hurt and only made 27 starts.

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by Andrew Martin on Feb 20, 2009 2:14 PM MST up reply actions

dangit

I started typing up another response about how the teams they’ve been on have been good as well. They were all like .530W% teams or above, except for Toronto, which was at like .501.

A good pitcher who can pitch for 7 innings a game is gonna have more wins because he stays in the game longer. Brandon Webb averages 7IP/game, so that’s gonna give the bats a good chance to give him a lead.

Guys like DLR who can’t last beyond the middle of the 6th aren’t gonna factor into as many decisions.

To quote FJM

Wins
1. The only stat that matters. The only way to pick a Cy Young winner. The thing Billy Beane can’t get in the playoffs, no matter how many fancy computers he hires to play baseball for him.
2. A simply awful pitching statistic that should be swallowed up by the earth itself, personified, given ears, and forced to listen to a tape loop of Bermanisms for all of eternity. The reason being – and again, you know this, intuitively, even if you have never quite expressed it to yourself – if Carl Pavano gives up nineteen runs in five innings but the Yankees score 20 runs, and they hold on to win, and Pavano gets the win, is Pavano a good pitcher? No he is not. (This scenario is assuming he ever comes back and actually pitches, btw.) If Francisco Liriano throws 9 innings of no-hit ball, but gives up a run on four consecutive errors by Terry Tiffey and gets a loss, is Francisco Liriano a bad pitcher? No he is not. Wins stink to high heaven as a way to value pitchers because they are in very large part dependent on the actions of the other guys on the team.
Of course, according to Joe Morgan, “Wins and losses are how you measure pitchers” (Baseball For Dummies, p. 289).

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by Andrew Martin on Feb 20, 2009 10:36 AM MST up reply actions

Hm

No response to this one, I see.

Wins are terrible.

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by Andrew Martin on Feb 20, 2009 2:16 PM MST up reply actions

I'm not sure how to answer this rant...

Although +1 for Beane not winning any playoff games.

Keepin' warm by the hot stove season.

by Charlie77 on Feb 20, 2009 7:59 PM MST up reply actions

Seriously though

You can keep posting these numbers. Wins are correlated with pitching success, but the causality is completely faulty. Yes, a very good pitcher will have a better shot at getting 20 wins. But anything other than that is gonna be incomplete.

Saying a guy is a 20 game winner (in this day and age) is about equated with saying he’s “Good”

Other than that, are you seriously gonna use win totals to tell me one guy is better than another guy?

Is a 13 game winner from 2008 better than an 8 game winner? Because if you say so, you keep Livan Hernandez and I’ll settle for Matt Cain.

In fact, if you look at the list of 7-9 game winners:

Greg Maddux LAD/SDG
Hiroki Kuroda LAD
Dave Bush MIL
Kevin Millwood TEX
Paul Maholm PIT
Brian Bannister KAN
Joe Blanton OAK/PHI
Scott Olsen FLA
Nate Robertson DET
Johnny Cueto CIN
John Lannan WAS
Felix Hernandez SEA
Kenny Rogers DET
Matt Cain SFO
Greg Smith OAK
Dana Eveland OAK
Brandon Backe HOU
Daniel Cabrera BAL

Yeah there’s some garbage guys there, but there’s also Felix Hernandez, Joe Blanton, Hiroki Kuroda, and Jhonny Cueto.

Are you gonna seriously tell me that Felix Hernandez is worth less to his team’s total W-L at the end of the season than Vicente Padilla is to his?

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by Andrew Martin on Feb 20, 2009 3:02 PM MST up reply actions

Before I reply to this in more depth..

I want to say that I respect the hard work you put into looking up stats and I value your opinion RMN. You’re opinion differs slightly from mine which makes it fun to debate some of these topics. So I hope you don’t take my replies in a negative manner.

That being said, you are totally wrong about pitching wins. I can’t say what the cutoff is and whether it’s 7 wins, 8 wins or whatever. I do know that wins are a good indicator of a good pitcher. Maybe we should do some correlation analysis to compare them to other stats? I might have to think about this a little more.

Keepin' warm by the hot stove season.

by Charlie77 on Feb 20, 2009 8:03 PM MST up reply actions