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Know Your Foe: Who is Pablo Sandoval?

There is absolutely nothing about Pablo Sandoval that is ordinary.

After all, when was the last time a 22-year-old 5'11" 245-pound switch-hitting catcher made the jump from A-ball to the middle of the batting order for a major league team in one year?  If you're leafing through your Baseball Almanac, I'll save you the time.  The answer is never.  The closest comparison you will find is 2008 NL MVP Albert Pujols, who made a similar rapid rise in 2000, but who has a different physical build.

The 22-year old Venezuelan, who is one day older than I,  was signed and groomed by San Francisco in 2002 at the age of 16.  Sandoval wasn't even on the Giants' top 30 prospect list by Baseball America at this time last year.  Yet Giants fans are already touting him as being the first homegrown position player All-Star since 1996.


Pablo Sandoval

#48 / Catcher / San Francisco Giants

5-11

245

B

R

Aug 11, 1986


 


AVG OBP SLG
2008 - Pablo Sandoval .345 .357 .490

Few players have generated as much buzz with under 150 major league at-bats as Sandoval has.  He has torn up every league he's played in the last two years with the bat and has proved capable at multiple defensive positions.  He has accumulated 35 home runs in the last three seasons and can put on an impressive power display as seen in this home run derby video from two months ago.

pablo sandoval campeon derby jonrrones 2008 (via victoralfonzo87)

 

Scouting Report

But what should we expect from the youngster in 2009?  Grant, the manager over at McCovey Chronicles offers his insight:

If Sandoval is healthy, he'll get 500 at-bats, easy.  I'm a little worried that he'll follow a Jeff Francouer career path, though: No walks, high average, and medium power before the league figures him out...Pitchers will get Sandoval to swing at a slider one foot off the plate, and he'll hit it for a double.

That last comment sounds a bit like another former MVP.  He's racking up the comparisons, isn't he?  Andrew Baggarly at the San Jose Mercury News reports that  Sandoval will hit fifth in the order to start and likely bat fourth when the usual clean-up hitter, Bengie Molina, gets the night off.

Sandoval achieved an astronomical BABIP of .367 with Frisco in his 145 at-bats.  Most assuredly, that will come down.  But maybe not as much as you might think.  As Grant puts it, "the dude hits *everything* hard." 

Statistic to know:  In 2008, Sandoval hit line drives on 25.9% of his batted balls, which would rank 3rd in the major leagues. 

Or note his .387 BABIP in High-A and .347 in AA in 2008.  When you are smoking line drives, you are going to have a high BABIP. 

Still, Sandoval is not going to hit .345 at the end of 2009.  Sandoval's weakness, one he shares with many young sluggers, is plate discipline.  Note that he swung at more than half of the pitches outside the strike zone.  Pablo earned walks in less than 3% of his plate appearances in 2008, a trend not far removed from his minor league numbers.  This is something that can and will be taken advantage of by major league pitchers.  He may not go Francouer on Frisco as Grant fears, but the league will catch up to him and drop his numbers a bit.  But how much?

Join me after the jump for projections and NL West news.

Star-divide

Projections

Below are projections from CHONE, Bill James and Grant from McCovey Chronicles.  Marcel was intentionally left out due to its unrealistically low projection of at-bats.

2009 AB HR Avg OBP SLG
Bill James 540 17 .320 .346 .500
CHONE 477 11 .283 .315 .426
Grant 520 13 .287 .309 .439

Or for the hometown view, check out the McCovey Chronicles community projections.

 

Where Will He Play?

Courtesy of Grant:

He will be the starter at third, and the Giants have almost completely ruled out any catching duties for him this year.  He doesn't allow a lot of passed balls, and his arm rates as above-average, so the Giants would probably be best off trading Molina and starting Sandoval at catcher.

Despite being a catcher originally, Sandoval is blocked by the Giants' current cleanup hitter Bengie Molina.  Thus, Sandoval is relegated to the hot corner in 2009, with recently signed Rich Aurilia Juan Uribe as the back-up plans.  The Giants' could have signed Joe Crede, but aparently, Brain Sabean is sure Sandoval is ready for a full-time job.

Baseball America also muses over Sandoval behind the dish.  After all, he was among the best at stopping base-stealers last year in all of minor league baseball.  ---SIDE NOTE:  Both the Rockies and Giants placed two catchers in the top seven in MiLB in 2008, with Michael McKenry first and Lars Davis 7th. --

Sandoval will hold his own defensively at third - at least no worse than Garrett Atkins.  He posted a 2.57 Range Factor in A-ball in 2006 (which translates as average) and didn't commit an error in 12 starts at third with the Giants.

Verdict:  I believe Bill James is too optimistic in his projection, although Sandoval has the talent to achieve those numbers in the near future.  The Rockies' pitchers need to take advantage of his lack of discipline to avoid Sandoval from connecting with one of his big swings.  Colorado did well against him in 08, holding him to just a .156 average, although two of his five hits were home runs.  He won't hit as well in 09 as he did in 08 naturally, but the guy is only 22.  I'm petrified of his potential.

 

Around the NL West

Arizona

Avoided arbitration with 1B/OF Conor Jackson last Monday.  The two sides agreed at the midpoint of $3.05million.

Gained a #17 overall pick.  Details below.

Eleven players and one coach fell ill to gastrointestinal issues Sunday.  Among the victims were Chris Young, Daniel Schlereth, Justin Upton and Miguel Montero.

Verdict:  I'm surprised by Arizona's move to settle at the mid-point with Jackson.  I expected them to defeat him in the arbitration hearing.  The Diamondbacks now have two draft picks in the top 20.  Getting the #17 pick is quite a coup.


Los Angeles

Signed 2B Orlando Hudson to a 1-year $3.4million contract worth $4.6million with incentives in what Keith Law is calling "easily one of the biggest bargains of the offseason."  The Royals offered $4.6million in base salary.  Arizona will receive Los Angeles' 17th overall pick in the 2009 draft as compensation.  Now LA's first pick is #36.


Orlando Hudson

#1 / Second Base / Arizona Diamondbacks

6-0

190

B

R

Dec 12, 1977


Manager Joe Torre will retire after the 2010 season.

Verdict: To me, the benefit of having the declining Hudson at second isn't worth losing the draft pick.  TrueBlueLA agrees.  Poor Blake DeWitt.  He sees Nomar Garciaparra and Jeff Kent leave to open up playing time only to see Casey Blake and Orlando Hudson sign to start in front of him.  Give the kid credit though.  He's being professional.


San Diego

Signed RHP Walter Silva of the Mexican League to a $400k contract.  Silva will be given a chance to make the rotation out of Spring Training.

Signed OF Emil Brown to a minor league contract.  Brown earned 438 at-bats in Oakland last season, but may have difficulty securing the fifth OF spot.

jbox at GasLamp Ball thinks the Padres are overweight.

Verdict: Naturally, a professional athlete's muscle mass is greater than the average human being, so the BMI jbox uses to qualify obesity is the incorrect scale.  But it's still worth a look if you want to laugh at the Padres.  Especially David Eckstein....The fact that Walter Silva has a legitimate shot to open the season in the rotation might as well be a white flag that says "REBUILDING."

 

San Francisco

Lost out on FA 3B Joe Crede.  Sandoval is slated for 3B, but the Giants could be interested in Cleveland 3B/1B Andy Marte.


Andy Marte

#15 / Third Base / Cleveland Indians

6-1

205

R

R

Oct 21, 1983


Contrary to recent reports, the Giants might start working on a multi-year contract for Tim Lincecum.

Verdict:  The Giants could have had Crede if they wanted, and he wasn't expensive.  Clearly, they have a lot of faith in Sandoval, but their first base situation is still unaddressed.  Marte would be a low risk, high reward addition who could fill in at first base.  Or Sandoval and Marte could switch positions.  McCovey Chronicles explores the possibility...If I'm Tim Lincecum, I cash in on my Cy Young season right now.  If I'm the Giants FO, I don't even listen to contract talks until after 2009.  I need to see Lincecum can maintain his health and productivity after being heavily abused in 2008.

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Uh-oh

I hope this doesn’t bring back that Giants troll who took every opportunity to tell us how Sandoval was going to crush us.

Blast and botheration.

by Silverblood on Feb 23, 2009 1:31 PM MST reply actions  

I was

just thinking that same thing

"Better move your rental cars, I am about to take BP."
-Glendon Rusch

by Hizilla on Feb 23, 2009 1:36 PM MST up reply actions  

Ironic then

that we were one of only two teans to hold him under. 300, and the only one to hold him under .200

"Winning doesn't really matter as long as you win." - Vinny Jones

by Andrew T. Fisher on Feb 23, 2009 1:37 PM MST up reply actions  

Just in case anyone doesn't know,

any example: here.

"If we never try, we shall never succeed." - Abraham Lincoln

Purple Row - Covering all your Rockies needs!

by Russ Oates on Feb 23, 2009 1:39 PM MST up reply actions  

My, my, my

That’s almost worthy of a ban.

"Winning doesn't really matter as long as you win." - Vinny Jones

by Andrew T. Fisher on Feb 23, 2009 1:42 PM MST up reply actions  

McCovey Chronicles

has already banned him. But nothing compares to some of the crap we received during the ’07 World Series. It was wicked pissa. . . .

"If we never try, we shall never succeed." - Abraham Lincoln

Purple Row - Covering all your Rockies needs!

by Russ Oates on Feb 23, 2009 1:55 PM MST up reply actions  

I feel sorry for ESL kids

Keepin' warm by the hot stove season.

by Charlie77 on Feb 23, 2009 11:27 PM MST up reply actions  

haha i remember that

he hit into like 2 double plays n struck out that game lmao

Jiri Hudler...our underrated MVP

by TuLoRocks2008 on Feb 23, 2009 2:13 PM MST up reply actions  

MCC Visitor, but not that one.

We had problems with him as well over at our site, multiple accounts are banned. I think he changed his affiliation to the RED SOWKS NASHON! last I heard because they win more.

The Basil Fawlty Moderating Strategy:
"We could run a nice blog here if we didn't have all these members getting in the way."

by WalrusMan on Feb 24, 2009 3:00 PM MST up reply actions  

He's

kinda tubby.

We are truly in the presense of greatness here…-- unnamedDBacksfan

by DbacksSkins on Feb 23, 2009 1:55 PM MST reply actions  

hmmm

Eleven players and one coach fell ill to gastrointestinal issues Sunday. Among the victims were Chris Young, Daniel Schlereth, Justin Upton and Miguel Montero.

Goood…Goooooood

Follow me on Twitter! http://www.twitter.com/rockiesmagicnum

by Andrew Martin on Feb 23, 2009 2:36 PM MST reply actions   1 recs

Whoa man

Don’t go inciting any vengeful bad karma on us.

Blast and botheration.

by Silverblood on Feb 23, 2009 2:37 PM MST up reply actions  

Yes, because

this happens:

"If we never try, we shall never succeed." - Abraham Lincoln

Purple Row - Covering all your Rockies needs!

by Russ Oates on Feb 23, 2009 2:42 PM MST up reply actions  

My take on the same story.

We are truly in the presense of greatness here…-- unnamedDBacksfan

by DbacksSkins on Feb 23, 2009 3:32 PM MST up reply actions  

Byrnes

didn’t marry Jeanie Zelasko did he?

"Better move your rental cars, I am about to take BP."
-Glendon Rusch

by Hizilla on Feb 23, 2009 3:37 PM MST up reply actions  

Actually, no.

We are truly in the presense of greatness here…-- unnamedDBacksfan

by DbacksSkins on Feb 23, 2009 3:56 PM MST up reply actions  

If we want to get rid of Atkins so bad (and I'm not one of those)

have we ever had talks with the Giants? Or is that a deal where you wouldn’t want to send him to a division foe?

by pedalpusher on Feb 23, 2009 3:02 PM MST reply actions  

Atkins for Jonathan Sanchez was suggested at one point

But I think we’d want more or something.

Follow me on Twitter! http://www.twitter.com/rockiesmagicnum

by Andrew Martin on Feb 23, 2009 4:24 PM MST up reply actions  

It might have been true the other way around, too

The Giants value Sanchez fairly highly relative to his performance to date.

by Rox Girl on Feb 23, 2009 4:45 PM MST up reply actions  

Sanchez

has been mentioned in trade rumors ad nauseum.

Doesn’t seem like it’s gonna happen anytime soon.

We are truly in the presense of greatness here…-- unnamedDBacksfan

by DbacksSkins on Feb 23, 2009 4:50 PM MST up reply actions  

It seems that Sanchez>Lowry

And Atkins>Lowry

Follow me on Twitter! http://www.twitter.com/rockiesmagicnum

by Andrew Martin on Feb 24, 2009 9:08 AM MST up reply actions  

Computers wear socks?

(Sorry PR readers who don’t get that.)

The Basil Fawlty Moderating Strategy:
"We could run a nice blog here if we didn't have all these members getting in the way."

by WalrusMan on Feb 24, 2009 3:04 PM MST up reply actions  

This, although his performance is misleading. We think he’s capable of much more than his full season ERA dictates since he ran out of steam last year (as he’d been a bullpen pitcher for the past few years). Look at his 1st/2nd half splits this year. Pretty dramatic. I’m not saying he can be his 1st half stats all the time, but damn he was good.

The Basil Fawlty Moderating Strategy:
"We could run a nice blog here if we didn't have all these members getting in the way."

by WalrusMan on Feb 24, 2009 3:04 PM MST up reply actions  

If we could combine your first half Sanchez with our second half JDLR, we will have made the perfect LHP. The only question would be who’d get the Schwarzenegger twin and who’d get the DeVito twin.

by Rox Girl on Feb 24, 2009 3:11 PM MST up reply actions  

Also, look at his individual games, he was downright dominating at times and for a good stretch there for a while before hitting the wall, performance-wise. The Giants have to see if he can do it over a full season before trading him, his value would sky-rocket if he’s able to do that.

Adoptive parental unit of Kevin " 2007's Most Spectacular Pitcher" Pucetas.

"I'm a Giant now... I like watching the ball get up there" - Wendell Fairley
"I'm really proud to be on this team." - Nate Schierholtz
"Woo hoo" - Tim "The Kid" Lincecum

by obsessivegiantscompulsive on Feb 24, 2009 4:13 PM MST up reply actions  

I just get the feeling

That nobody can maintain a .345/.357/.490 batting line, most significantly with an IsoD of .012; an IsoD that low just reeks of bat plate discipline (which we’ve already established) but will end up with a much lower BA (swinging at poor pitches and eventually contact rates rise, etc)

That said, high batting averages are always fun to watch.

Follow me on Twitter! http://www.twitter.com/rockiesmagicnum

by Andrew Martin on Feb 23, 2009 4:44 PM MST reply actions  

There's no way he can bat .345

if he continues to swing at 53% of balls outside of the zone. Eventually pitchers will take advantage.

"Winning doesn't really matter as long as you win." - Vinny Jones

by Andrew T. Fisher on Feb 23, 2009 5:58 PM MST up reply actions  

Eeek
The 22-year old Venezuelan, who is one day older than I


One day older than ME. Please!

by onholliday on Feb 23, 2009 11:52 PM MST reply actions  

Nope

Using "I" is more correct

It just sounds wrong because most people use the less correct form. Some grammar purists might even say using “me” is incorrect.

"Winning doesn't really matter as long as you win." - Vinny Jones

by Andrew T. Fisher on Feb 24, 2009 12:11 AM MST up reply actions  

Indeed.

“I” is short for “I am”. You wouldn’t say “one day older than me am”…

We are truly in the presense of greatness here…-- unnamedDBacksfan

by DbacksSkins on Feb 24, 2009 7:48 AM MST up reply actions  

The correct way would be “one day older than me is”…

by paboperfecto on Feb 24, 2009 1:45 PM MST up reply actions  

He is one day older than me is?

"Winning doesn't really matter as long as you win." - Vinny Jones

by Andrew T. Fisher on Feb 24, 2009 2:02 PM MST up reply actions  

War is not bit one great?

We are truly in the presense of greatness here…-- unnamedDBacksfan

by DbacksSkins on Feb 24, 2009 2:10 PM MST up reply actions  

Wow.

And I thought we were the only SBN blog to talk about grammar.

The Basil Fawlty Moderating Strategy:
"We could run a nice blog here if we didn't have all these members getting in the way."

by WalrusMan on Feb 24, 2009 3:05 PM MST up reply actions  

+1

for the sig

We are truly in the presense of greatness here…-- unnamedDBacksfan

by DbacksSkins on Feb 24, 2009 4:00 PM MST up reply actions  

It fits a bit better over at MCC where I’m a moderator, but you get it.

The Basil Fawlty Moderating Strategy:
"We could run a nice blog here if we didn't have all these members getting in the way."

by WalrusMan on Feb 24, 2009 7:01 PM MST up reply actions  

I actually

just listened to the entire series while driving up to the Grand Canyon and back again.

We are truly in the presense of greatness here…-- unnamedDBacksfan

by DbacksSkins on Feb 24, 2009 10:37 PM MST up reply actions  

I thought it was “one day older than us are” because grammar snobs like to pretend they’re more than one person, right?

by Rox Girl on Feb 24, 2009 3:04 PM MST up reply actions  

Well, to give you a little more information on his defense, most tend to agree if the ball is hit to him or within a step of him he’ll gobble it up. He’s definitely got great hands. But he’ll be range challenged for sure. I wish he were behind the dish, but perhaps next year we can stash him behind there to build up his value more and trade away for SuperWonderful prospects if Posey is ready.

The Basil Fawlty Moderating Strategy:
"We could run a nice blog here if we didn't have all these members getting in the way."

by WalrusMan on Feb 24, 2009 3:07 PM MST reply actions  

Fixing some inaccuracies

Nice post but here are some inaccuracies as I see them:

First, while Giants fans are understandably excited over their position wunderkind, there are not a lot of us thinking he’s an All-Star, at least not among those of us who follows prospects. He’s a definite improvement over the suck we had in 2008 (Castillo), brings a little excitement to the team (he had two stunning slides around the catchers tag in one week in 2008), is a nice personality, and brings some power to the lineup we didn’t have at 3B in 2008.

Second, here is a quote from BA regarding Sandoval’s omission from their Prospect Book in 2008, it was late in the 2008 season in their Ask BA series, and they admitted he should have been in it: “John Manuel: Back when I did the Giants, I ranked him 27th one year and 15th in the org another. He really should be the first baseman until Big V is ready. Dude can hit. No knock on Andy Baggarly because it was Baseball America’s list but we missed out not ranking him in the Giants top 30 last year; two years ago, when he wasn’t catching or hitting for power, I can see why he fell out of the 30. After last year, we should have ranked him. We just whiffed.”

Third, he really only tore up the leagues in 2008, he was good but not particularly noteworthy in 2007. That’s why the lack of love going into 2008 season (though I believed, drafting him in my keeper league).

And fourth, he has not proven himself capable at multiple positions, in fact, there are questions at all positions, particularly catcher, but also 3B and even 1B. 1B appears to be the position everyone concedes he would be OK at, though at best average. I’ve seen no one who thinks he can stick at C (among prospect books I’ve seen; many fans still cling to the dream that he can somehow start and catch, and be extremely valuable), some have thought that he could man 3B competently given enough experience, but others pooh-pooh that. Even 1B is not considered a sure thing, just a surer thing. But with Travis Ishsikawa and John Bowker competing for opportunity there and nobody at 3B, that is why Sandoval is being slotted there for now, at least in pencil. WalrusMan describes him the way I’ve seen his range, he can reach anything within a step of him and play it well, but otherwise limited in range. Unfortunately, Renteria is not as good to his right, so that could be a recipe for many hits making the hole in 2009.

Regarding his power, look on Minor League Baseball Splits for his 2007 and 2008 seasons’ Spray Chart. He clearly showed his power in 2007, only he was hitting them straight to CF and they were being caught. In 2008, he boosted power (more over 350 feet hit) plus started pulling them more, which boosted his HR rate greatly.

Regarding lineup position, I would say that’s a fluid situation. Just a week ago, he was slotted for batting 3rd in the lineup with Lewis 5th. I think Bochy is going to move people around as prospects do well, or not do so well, as the case may be. But 3, 4, 5, 6 is generally where he should be unless he totally flops.

I assume you meant Pablo, not Pedro, later.

I would also note that in the minors, his line drive percentage was only around 15, so the 25 you noted for the majors is not sustainable without a huge change in skillset. But that is rare to be able to move up to the majors and hit more line drives, though I suppose it could be argued that with more pitches in or near the plate, he can better make contact and hit more line drives than usual. This should be cleared up to a degree in 2009, once he gets significant ABs in the majors.

But very nice run-down of Kung Fu Panda, not too bad for an Omelette-town fan. A key fact that was not noted was that his strikeout rate has been pretty good during his minor league career, mostly below the 15% that is the mark of a good hitter, and he was able to continue that in the majors thus far. And despite the lack of walks, he’s been able to hit for a good average in spite of that.

He’s an exciting hitter who appeared to figure things out the past two seasons, after a big stumble in 2006, his first full-season league. But he was only 19 that season, so perhaps he was just homesick. In any case, as I noted, his power kicked in the 2007 season, with a number of 350+ feet batted balls ending up non-homers (mostly outs) straight to CF, before learning to pull them in 2008. And he’s only 22 for the 2009 season. As one reviewer I’ve seen said: “It’s a matter of when”.

The main cloud in the coffee is that he doesn’t have a true position on the field, other than DH in the AL. A sign that his defense, despite taking thousands of ground balls at 3B this winter from a Giants scout/instructor, is still not that good, is that the Giants felt that they had to at least give Crede an offer, which would push Sandoval to 1B. Still, the Giants do value defense, so I assume they wouldn’t play him at 3B if they thought he didn’t have a chance of fielding adequately.

But I think this works for 2009. We get to see both Sandoval and Ishikawa (and perhaps Bowker too if Ishikawa falters offensively) get a chance at the corners, then can reassess after the 2009 season, what next to do. Between the three of them, we should be able to get one passable 1B for the near future, and if all the practice helped enough, a 3B too. Plus, if Villalona is looking more like the 1B of the future, they could even entertain trading Sandoval to AL team to DH at some point before annoiting Villalona, assuming Sandoval hits as well as expected and has good value as a hitter.

Adoptive parental unit of Kevin " 2007's Most Spectacular Pitcher" Pucetas.

"I'm a Giant now... I like watching the ball get up there" - Wendell Fairley
"I'm really proud to be on this team." - Nate Schierholtz
"Woo hoo" - Tim "The Kid" Lincecum

by obsessivegiantscompulsive on Feb 24, 2009 4:09 PM MST reply actions  

From the link to this post at MCC
Don’t be too hard on them for using “Frisco.” If there were something we could call Denver — ‘Ver-Town, say — that would annoy native Coloradoans, we’d certainly do it.

Omelette-town — I think you found that special something.

http://twitter.com/blakebomber

by BlakeBomber on Feb 24, 2009 4:49 PM MST up reply actions  

Denver Omelettes

always remind me of the Boy Scouts of America… (long story)

We are truly in the presense of greatness here…-- unnamedDBacksfan

by DbacksSkins on Feb 25, 2009 1:08 AM MST up reply actions  

Haha didn’t think you posted here Martin, but once I saw the start of the post…. ;-)

I do remember one of those slides, a little stutter step and jump over the tag. That was awesome, just AWESOME. Not really baseball that you ever see, but it was great to watch.

The Basil Fawlty Moderating Strategy:
"We could run a nice blog here if we didn't have all these members getting in the way."

by WalrusMan on Feb 24, 2009 7:02 PM MST up reply actions  

Grant links...

I must follow…

Adoptive parental unit of Kevin " 2007's Most Spectacular Pitcher" Pucetas.

"I'm a Giant now... I like watching the ball get up there" - Wendell Fairley
"I'm really proud to be on this team." - Nate Schierholtz
"Woo hoo" - Tim "The Kid" Lincecum

by obsessivegiantscompulsive on Feb 26, 2009 9:16 AM MST up reply actions  

Yeah that was one slide

He just eluded the tag by the barest of margins. I think that was the one that he injured something with his leg, which I totally believed seeing how he avoided that tag, I can’t imagine a thin person doing that, let alone him.

I think that was the second one that sealed it for me.

I think the first slide (might have order backward, but I think this was the first one) was one where he just dove, like he was Omar Vizquel and not OddJob, to the 3B side of homeplate and he literally had no margin for error, he just barely tagged the plate, just barely eluded the tag, I still can’t believe it did that slide, given his body shape. That was the same with the stutter step slide, he somehow just barely eluded the tag, and had the presence of mind to touch the plate while doing all that gyrations to avoid the catcher in the first place.

After seeing the first of the slides, I was awed but thought, must have been a once in a lifetime slide, given his size, no way I see another in my lifetime from him, then lo and behold, he does it again within a week. That made me a believer that all those comments about him being athletic could have some grain of truth in it.

There have been few plays ingrained in my memory in the Oughts, and his slides are up there with Shinjo’s barehand grab (and he wasn’t even the primary fielder) and blind toss to home plate that nailed the runner at home, and JT Snow’s grab of Darren Baker before scoring.

Adoptive parental unit of Kevin " 2007's Most Spectacular Pitcher" Pucetas.

"I'm a Giant now... I like watching the ball get up there" - Wendell Fairley
"I'm really proud to be on this team." - Nate Schierholtz
"Woo hoo" - Tim "The Kid" Lincecum

by obsessivegiantscompulsive on Feb 26, 2009 10:15 AM MST up reply actions  

Thanks for your input.

The quote on Sandoval being outside of the top 30 prospects is certainly interesting. Did Baggarly just start contributing to BA in 08?

Regarding some of your corrections, there was nothing that I stated that I did not see reported somewhere. The fans projecting him as a future All-Star was straight out of an article – I just lost the link. I think it was by Baggarly. Others were cited (Marte, batting order, etc).

Re: His “capability” defensively in multiple defensive positions (that being C, 1B and 3B). My definition of capable is not necessarily above average defense, but just the being passable – so as not to be a huge liability …ahem, Atkins…Hawpe. And Baseball America and Grant both think he’d be a decent catcher from what I read.

I’m glad to have some expert feedback. And especially respectful cross-blog traffic.

Btw….The “Woo-hoo” quote was my absolute favorite of 2008. My favorite in 07 was from Holliday: “Holy crap! We’re in the World Series!”

Btw2…I’ve never had a Denver Omelette…

"Winning doesn't really matter as long as you win." - Vinny Jones

by Andrew T. Fisher on Feb 24, 2009 8:00 PM MST up reply actions  

No problem

I guess what I meant to say was that among the Giants fans who know better, none of us saw him as an All-Star, it was the newbies or Pollyannas who thought that. And I tried to qualify that in my statement.

Not sure what you mean by Marte, I didn’t mention him.

About batting order, just wanted to give you the latest news, really just a day or two ago Bochy flipped on the lineup. I don’t really expect you to keep up on each and every bit of Giants news. :^)

Baseball America has been pretty clear that scouts and managers don’t think he can be a catcher: “He has a strong arm, but the scouts contacted for this list who had seen Sandoval catch didn’t believe he could play there regularly in the major leagues. Two managers said Sandoval had problems just physically squatting behind the plate, while two AL scouts both used the same cliché: "He can’t catch a cold.” People have just not been aware of all the sources.

It is not even clear if he is even passable at 3B and 1B: “He looks considerably less comfortable on defense. Though he has arm strength and threw out 46 percent of basestealers with San Jose, his hands and lack of agility work against him at catcher. San Francisco also played him at both infield corners, but his squat body and limited athleticism don’t profile well there either.” These quotes were from BA’s Top 20 by Minor Leagues, which they then quoted in their Ask BA column available to non-subscribers like me.

That will be the experiment of 2009, I believe, but at least his very small samples UZR at 1B and 3B were good; it’s a start at least and since he took thousands of groundballs from a Giants coach during the off-season, he should be better now, but the troubling point for me is that the Giants still felt the need to even offer Crede a contract. So I’ll be watching with bated breath.

I love Denver Omelettes, BTW, just had to take a shot since Grant made a point of noting it.

I like the Woo-Hoo quote too.

Adoptive parental unit of Kevin " 2007's Most Spectacular Pitcher" Pucetas.

"I'm a Giant now... I like watching the ball get up there" - Wendell Fairley
"I'm really proud to be on this team." - Nate Schierholtz
"Woo hoo" - Tim "The Kid" Lincecum

by obsessivegiantscompulsive on Feb 26, 2009 10:00 AM MST up reply actions  

Also

I realize the 25% LD is not sustainable. I was not suggesting he would continue with that through his career. Citing that stat had two purposes – to explain his very high BABIP, and to show he is a line-drive hitter. 145 ABs may not be enough of a sample space to project off of, but it will show tendencies. I believe he’ll be an above average LD hitter: thus, he’d be an above average BABIP guy as well.

"Winning doesn't really matter as long as you win." - Vinny Jones

by Andrew T. Fisher on Feb 24, 2009 8:16 PM MST up reply actions  

Thanks

That’s good to know, I was just worried that it was small sampling that led to the high LD%, particularly given how low it was in the minors.

I agree that while small samples, it does show some tendencies, I often get into discussions with others on that point too, I think you can still derive some information from small samples in certain situations.

Oh, and love the quote on your sig!

Adoptive parental unit of Kevin " 2007's Most Spectacular Pitcher" Pucetas.

"I'm a Giant now... I like watching the ball get up there" - Wendell Fairley
"I'm really proud to be on this team." - Nate Schierholtz
"Woo hoo" - Tim "The Kid" Lincecum

by obsessivegiantscompulsive on Feb 26, 2009 10:21 AM MST up reply actions  

1B not that unsettled

Look at the projections for Ishikawa at 1B, very similar to numbers for Sandoval as a hitter, something in the high 700 OPS range, somewhere high teens in homers, and his defense is already MLB caliber. At least he has been successful hitting in the majors in limited play, unlike Marte.

I put the Marte rumors up there with every rumor the past two off-seasons for corner infielders – insubstantial – except for the offer of a contract for Crede. Most were drummed up thusly: hey corner infielder available, Giants need a corner infielder, let’s mention them or start a rumor about them.

I don’t see the Giants trading for Marte unless the Sandoval experiment at 3B is failing miserably and it’s the end of spring training. But I can’t see them giving up much of anything to Cleveland for him, given how poorly he has played.

Adoptive parental unit of Kevin " 2007's Most Spectacular Pitcher" Pucetas.

"I'm a Giant now... I like watching the ball get up there" - Wendell Fairley
"I'm really proud to be on this team." - Nate Schierholtz
"Woo hoo" - Tim "The Kid" Lincecum

by obsessivegiantscompulsive on Feb 24, 2009 4:26 PM MST reply actions  

I like this site

even though I don’t read it much.

I’m in the minority, but I don’t see Pablo’s potential to be terrifyingly awesome (just pretty good), mainly because I don’t see him keep being Vlad-like at the plate, and though some people have noted that he was a little more selective than usual toward the end of last season (am I right about that Giants’ fans?), I don’t see him developing more patience until a little farther down the line.

OT, but if Francis hadn’t had gone down, I would’ve been worried about you guys “surprising” people again and taking the division. Now I’m just cautious.

Aaron King is still my homeboy... iffy mechanics and all

If Dustin Pedroia played in Seattle, not many people would be talking about him.

by baetown415 on Feb 25, 2009 12:06 AM MST reply actions  

It's true about Francis...

Right now it will take something extra from one of our dozen or so young starters to replace him. There are enough of them that chances are decent that it could happen, but it would have been nice to have a somewhat more secure scenario to be working with. Right now I think the Giants and Rockies are about equal in their chances to surprise the other two main contenders. It will require a couple of your hitters going over their projections, which again isn’t as unlikely as fans in AZ and LA tend to think.

by Rox Girl on Feb 25, 2009 5:46 AM MST up reply actions  

Right now I think the Giants and Rockies are about equal in their chances to surprise the other two main contenders.

And you think those chances are….? (Seriously. I’m curious)

We are truly in the presense of greatness here…-- unnamedDBacksfan

by DbacksSkins on Feb 25, 2009 7:42 AM MST up reply actions  

Right now, I'd say that LA and AZ combine to just under a 60% likelihood of winning the division

And CO and SF combine to a little over 35% assuming the Dodgers sign Manny. Let’s call it 58/37 with the Padres picking up that last 5%. I think that the Rockies and Giants have more things that could go right for them to improve their chances that forecasters won’t be able to pick up on than the two front-runners. This is, of course, just my tainted opinion, but it seems to me that more people are aware of Scherzer/Upton/Young’s breakout potential this season than some of the young players for the other two teams.

by Rox Girl on Feb 25, 2009 8:57 AM MST up reply actions  

Hmmm...

pretty reasonable prediction, backed by some solid logic.

We are truly in the presense of greatness here…-- unnamedDBacksfan

by DbacksSkins on Feb 25, 2009 9:10 AM MST up reply actions  

Of course,

at the Snakepit, we’re also taking Slumdog Millionaire into account.

We are truly in the presense of greatness here…-- unnamedDBacksfan

by DbacksSkins on Feb 25, 2009 9:14 AM MST up reply actions  

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Top 30 PuRPs

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  2. Jhoulys Chacin, RHP
  3. Tyler Matzek, LHP
  4. Esmil Rogers, RHP
  5. Wilin Rosario, C
  6. Hector Gomez, SS
  7. Rex Brothers, LHP
  8. Tim Wheeler, OF
  9. Samuel Deduno, RHP
  10. Eric Young, Jr., 2B/OF
  11. Michael McKenry, C
  12. Charlie Blackmon, OF
  13. Nolan Arenado, 3B
  14. Chris Balcom-Miller, RHP
  15. Juan Nicasio, RHP
  16. Chris Nelson, SS/2B
  17. Casey Weathers, RHP
  18. Chaz Roe, RHP
  19. Kiel Roling, 1B
  20. Delta Cleary, OF
  21. Matt Reynolds, LHP
  22. Jordan Pacheco, C
  23. Cole Garner, OF
  24. Eliezer Mesa, OF
  25. Ethan Hollingsworth, RHP
  26. Edgmer Escalona, RHP
  27. Scott Beerer, OF
  28. Darin Holcomb, 3B
  29. Ben Paulsen, 1B
  30. Andrew Johnston, RHP
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