Draft Profile: Kyle Gibson, RHP, University of Missouri

by Russ Oates on Feb 6, 2009 11:00 AM MST in Rockies Draft

The University of Missouri has offered a few good pitchers over the last few years. Max Scherzer was the 11th overall pick by the Arizona Diamondbacks in 2006, and in 2008 the Washington Nationals selected Aaron Crow ninth overall. Scherzer and Scott Boras didn't agree on a deal with the D'Backs until right before the signing deadline came in 2007. Aaron Crow and his agents, the Hendricks Brothers, failed to reach an agreement with the Nationals, putting Crow back into play in the 2009 draft. Also, the Nats gain the 10th pick of the draft for failing to sign Crow, moving the Rockies to the 11th pick.

In 2009, the Missouri Tigers will have another high draft pick:

via www.columbiamissourian.com

Kyle Gibson takes over Aaron Crow's vacated spot as the Friday starter. He'll face the Big 12's other top starters, and the Big 12 is always a tough conference. Here's what he's done over the last two years for the Tigers:

Year	ERA	W-L	APP	GS	CG	SV	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	WHIP	K/9	BB/9
2007	4.12	8-3	28	2	0	7	67.2	62	34	31	19	77	1.20	10.2	2.5
2008	3.84	9-4	19	12	2	2	86.2	86	43	37	23	96	1.26	10.0	2.4

Missouri's player profile lists him at 6'6" and 208 lbs. If Missouri isn't lying, Gibson has filled out a little more, as he had been around 195 lbs. earlier in his career.

Join me after the jump for a bit more on Kyle Gibson.

First, here's some video of Gibson when he pitched in the Cape Cod League in 2007:

He has a three-pitch repertoire that consists of a fastball, slider, and changeup.

Saber Scouting, Brewerfan.net, and The College Baseball Blog offer profiles of Gibson (be sure to read them), but I'll sum up some of the best parts here. His fastball works in the high-80s to low-90s, with the occasional 93-94. His slider is his best pitch now and his changeup has the potential to be a plus pitch. On the downside, he could trun into a reliever if his fastball doesn't continue to improve. But if he does improve that pitch, he could turn into a front-line starter.

Gibson played for Team USA this past summer and went 5-0 in 13 appearances (one start). He struck out 25 in 17 2/3 innings and walked only four. He allowed two earned runs.

Russ's Take: This is the first profile this season, so I can't rank Gibson against anyone else for the moment. Right now, Gibson looks like the real deal as long as he doesn't implode this season and should be a top-10 selection. But it wouldn't be out of the question for him to be there at 11. At this time last year, who thought Christian Friedrich would fall all the way to the 25th pick when he had been projected to be a top-15 pick? Gibson's not going to be overpowering like Scherzer and Crow, but with his control, slider, and hopefully improving fastball and changeup, he's looking like a good prospect right now.

Other Links:

Missouri's Next Ace - Missourian

Kyle Gibson Chat with Baseball America

Big 12 Hardball - Be sure to follow Gibson and other Big 12 prospects here.

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Comments

I'm still kind of confused about Friedrich

I was under the impression that A. It was kind of a shallow draft, and B. He was pretty good, but a soft-tossing breaking-ball kind of guy. I mean, so was Greg Maddux, but that doesn’t mean this kid is going to the HoF.

How should I feel? I’m really not too educated on prospects and how to evaluate them. He looks like he’s a bit wild but with some potentially devastating stuff, and not too much of an inning eater. Maybe similar to JLDR, but slower and with a modified toolkit?

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by Andrew Martin on Feb 6, 2009 12:04 PM MST reply actions

I thought JLDR wasn’t a soft-tosser? But I could be wrong.

by onholliday on Feb 6, 2009 1:50 PM MST up reply actions

you are wrong...

JDLR was one of the top 20 in the MLB in fastball velocity among starters at the end of last year, just under C.C. Sabathia. Since I’ve brought this up repeatedly, I’m starting to get depressed that people aren’t actually reading what I write.

by Rox Girl on Feb 6, 2009 1:56 PM MST up reply actions

I read it

He also said he thought JDLR wasn’t a soft tosser…

by Resolution on Feb 6, 2009 1:59 PM MST up reply actions

She just gets mad

when someone belittles her precious JDLR…

by Hizilla on Feb 6, 2009 1:59 PM MST up reply actions

That's pretty much it.

It’s one of those places where I’m secure enough going against the CW that I’ll defend him like a mother badger if I have to. I’d be careful.

by Rox Girl on Feb 6, 2009 2:08 PM MST up reply actions

Oy... I owe onholliday a big apology for misreading that.

I’m sorry.

by Rox Girl on Feb 6, 2009 2:02 PM MST up reply actions

haha, it's okay

by onholliday on Feb 6, 2009 8:11 PM MST up reply actions

I'm a ginormous DLR fanboy

I think he has destructive stuff, I’m just concerned about his longevity and such, and if he’ll be as effective taking a bit off to spread it out over 6 innings.

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by Andrew Martin on Feb 6, 2009 2:12 PM MST up reply actions

I also never said DLR was a soft tosser, I know he cooks it

But I’m saying Friedrich might kind of fit that mold, but SLOWER.

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by Andrew Martin on Feb 6, 2009 2:13 PM MST up reply actions

Friedrich isn't a soft tosser either,

Not as hard as JDLR, but he’s solidly in that Cole Hamels, Johan Santana range on his fastball without the movement they have.

by Rox Girl on Feb 6, 2009 2:00 PM MST up reply actions

I don't like this guy much

I’m put off by a 4.12 era as a college reliever. Although it is good that his rates pretty much stayed the same and his era dropped to 3.84 when he started more in ‘08. But still neither of those are really flashy. I guess if he had really high BABIP’s against him or crap defense it washes the poor ERA’s away. But so far this seems like another pitcher who’s somewhat average but happens to be really tall. I’m not buying.

I also don’t like his delivery much as it seems like really arm-heavy. He really doesn’t seem to be utilizing his lower half much at all. Granted a lot of his video sees him working out of the stretch but still, his windup is pretty bland. I don’t think I’d pick him as his ceiling doesn’t seem too high and his arm-heavy windup makes me wonder about injuries.

by Resolution on Feb 6, 2009 1:58 PM MST reply actions

I don't pay much attention

to college ERA, considering the Howitzers that pass for bats these days.

Staying on the sunny side of Blake Street since 1993.
MHCSports - Denver sports analysis from Denver sports fans

by Franchise26 on Feb 6, 2009 2:06 PM MST up reply actions

Metal bats

Aluminum bats inflate college batting averages and hence ERAs. The top 12 college baseball conferences had an average BA of .295, compared to .271 in the AL and .266 in the NL (those are 2007 numbers.) Average BABIP was .339 (.305 in the AL, .301 in the NL.) So hitting with a metal bat instead of a wood bat is worth about 25-30 points on your BA. I’d also guess that fielding on average isn’t as good in college as it is in the majors. Slugging percentage, though, is roughly the same — .426 in college vs. .423 in the majors.

The Big 12 also is notably hitter-friendly. The Big 12 has an average park factor of 116 (in other words, the average ballpark in the Big 12 is more hitter-friendly than post-humidor Coors.) Missouri’s park factor is also 116.

If you’re wondering where I got this info, it’s here and here.

by Tom (RFTN) on Feb 6, 2009 2:40 PM MST up reply actions